Core Insights - Turkey's central government budget deficit for 2025 is projected at 1.8 trillion lira (approximately 45.5 billion USD) with a primary budget surplus of 255.3 billion lira, marking the first primary surplus since 2022 [1] Group 1: Budget Overview - In 2025, Turkey's central government budget expenditures are expected to increase by 35.7% year-on-year, reaching 14.63 trillion lira [1] - Interest expenditures are projected to be 2.05 trillion lira, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 61.7% [1] - Excluding interest payments, total fiscal expenditures are estimated at 12.58 trillion lira, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.3% [1] Group 2: Revenue Performance - Budget revenues are anticipated to grow by 48% year-on-year, totaling 12.83 trillion lira, achieving 100.3% of the annual target [1] - Tax revenue increased by 51.3% year-on-year, reaching 11.05 trillion lira, which constitutes 86.1% of total fiscal revenue and meets 99.2% of the annual target [1] - Specific tax contributions include 4.28 trillion lira from value-added tax, 4.03 trillion lira from personal and corporate income tax, and 2.02 trillion lira from special consumption tax [1] - Other income sources, including interest income, fines, and revenue sharing, grew by approximately 36.3% to 1.08 trillion lira [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, aiming to enhance precision and effectiveness in fiscal spending [1] - The expansion of total spending requires higher demands for the effective use of available financial resources, with experts predicting a larger fiscal spending scale in 2026, maintaining an "early start and quick use" approach [1][4] - Fiscal revenue is expected to recover due to stable economic growth, with tax revenue accounting for approximately 68% of total fiscal revenue in the first eleven months of 2025, driven by domestic consumption and improved corporate profits [2][3] Group 2 - The fiscal expenditure for 2026 is projected to maintain a front-loaded approach, with local government bond issuance plans indicating a scale of nearly 1.2 trillion yuan for the first quarter [4][5] - The issuance of replacement bonds and special bonds is expected to follow a sequence that prioritizes debt relief before investment, with a focus on balancing the issuance of various types of bonds [5] - To enhance local financial capacity, there is a need to increase transfer payment scales and improve their effectiveness, particularly in underdeveloped regions [6][7]

Fiscal Data - In the first 11 months of this year, national fiscal revenue reached 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, consistent with the growth rate of the previous 10 months[2] - Central government revenue has shown a declining trend since the second half of 2023, with a continuous year-on-year contraction expected in 2024, although the decline is narrowing[2] - Local government revenue saw a minimum year-on-year growth rate near 0% at the beginning of 2024, but has gradually increased since then[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose in 2025, aiming to support economic growth and price recovery, with a focus on meeting the financing needs of the real economy[3] - Structural tools will target key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises[3] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.4%, with total trading volume reaching 1.811146 trillion yuan, an increase of 869.72 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index surged by 3.39%, while the STAR 50 Index rose by 2.47%[4] Bond and Currency Markets - The yield on the 10-year government bond was 1.8367%, with a change of -1.2 basis points[5] - The US dollar index closed at 98.3983, up by 0.18%, while the offshore RMB depreciated against the dollar by 39 basis points, with an exchange rate of 7.04[6] Market Trends - The total market turnover was reported at 1.8344 trillion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.53%[19] - The net inflow of funds was highest in the communication, non-ferrous metals, and electric power equipment sectors[24] Risks - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected adjustments in the real estate market, and escalating tensions between China and the US[27]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - This year from January to November, China's national fiscal revenue reached 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with the same growth rate as the first 10 months. National tax revenue was 16.48 trillion yuan, up 1.8%, and securities trading stamp duty revenue was 185.5 billion yuan, a 70.7% increase [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its "2025 Coal Report" that global coal demand in 2025 increased by 0.5% to a record 8.85 billion tons, but demand has entered a plateau and is expected to start a "very slow and gradual" decline by the end of this decade [2]. - On Wednesday, the main platinum futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the main palladium futures contract hit the daily limit for the first time. Lithium carbonate futures soared nearly 8%, approaching the 110,000 yuan/ton mark, reaching a high in over a year [2]. - Brazil's December soybean export volume is expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. Corn exports are expected to be 6.35 million tons, up from 6.3 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2 million tons, up from 1.83 million tons [3]. - Indonesia's government proposed a nickel ore production target of about 250 million tons in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB), a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set in the 2025 RKAB, aiming to prevent further nickel price declines [3]. 2. Sector Performance Key Focus - Urea, lithium carbonate, platinum, coking coal, and plastics [4] Night Session Performance - Non-metallic building materials rose 2.51%, precious metals 33.03%, oilseeds and oils 8.65%, soft commodities 3.32%, non-ferrous metals 23.75%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 10.78%, energy 2.58%, chemicals 10.49%, grains 1.31%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.60% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The document provides a chart of the five - day position changes in commodity futures sectors, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, steel, and minerals, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 1.19 | - 0.47 | 15.47 | | | SSE 50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 11.43 | | | CSI 300 | 1.83 | 1.18 | 16.39 | | | CSI 500 | 1.95 | 1.51 | 24.66 | | | S&P 500 | - 1.16 | - 1.86 | 14.28 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.92 | - 1.51 | 26.96 | | | German DAX | - 0.02 | 0.99 | 20.91 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.26 | - 1.48 | 24.11 | | | UK FTSE 100 | 0.92 | 0.55 | 19.59 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.10 | 0.06 | - 0.84 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.06 | 0.09 | - 0.66 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.01 | 0.05 | - 0.52 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | - 3.25 | - 1.70 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 3.00 | - 2.52 | - 20.84 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.80 | 2.82 | 65.28 | | | LME Copper | 1.30 | 5.07 | 33.72 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 3.02 | 8.55 | 45.23 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.18 | - 1.05 | - 9.29 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.80 | - 5.01 | [6] 5. Stock Market Risk Appetite and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents charts of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, gold - oil ratio, copper - gold ratio, Wind All - A (ex - finance, oil, and petrochemicals) and its risk premium, risk premiums of SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500, and CBOT soybean and corn futures prices [7]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to November, China's general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 164,814 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while non-tax revenue was 35,702 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 3.7% [1] - The growth rate of general public budget revenue remained consistent with that of January to October [1] Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax and domestic consumption tax grew by 3.9% and 2.5% respectively, indicating stable growth [1] - Corporate income tax increased by 1.7%, while personal income tax saw a significant rise of 11.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as in the previous months [1] - Sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed strong tax performance, with computer and communication equipment manufacturing tax revenue up by 14.1%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing tax revenue up by 7.9% [1] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure reached 248,538 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [2] - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment (up 8.1%), education (up 4.4%), health (up 4.7%), and science and technology (up 7.9%) [2] - Government fund budget revenue was 40.3 billion RMB, down 4.9%, while government fund budget expenditure was 92.1 billion RMB, up 13.7% [2] Group 4: Debt and Funding - The increase in expenditure was attributed to accelerated use of bond funds, with local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributing to a total expenditure of 51.5 billion RMB [2]

Core Insights - The overall fiscal operation remains stable, with public budget revenue showing low growth trends in the first 11 months of the year [1][2] Group 1: Public Budget Revenue - National general public budget revenue for the first 11 months is approximately 20.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, consistent with the previous 10 months [1] - Tax revenue, considered an economic barometer, accounts for about 16.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] - In November, tax revenue reached approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, growing by 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Major tax categories, including domestic VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, and personal income tax, have shown stable growth rates of 3.9%, 1.7%, 2.5%, and 11.5% respectively [1] - The significant growth in personal income tax is attributed to an active capital market and increased income from dividends [1] Group 2: Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue for the first 11 months is approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 3.7% year-on-year [2] - The decline is partly due to previous high growth rates leading to a high base and increased regulatory scrutiny on penalty and confiscation revenues [2] Group 3: Government Fund Revenue - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, is about 4 trillion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, with a more significant decline compared to the previous 10 months [3] - Revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights is approximately 2.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% [3] Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure - General public budget expenditure for the first 11 months is around 24.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [3] - Government fund budget expenditure is approximately 9.2 trillion yuan, increasing by 13.7% year-on-year [3] - Expenditure on social security, health, and education has grown by 8.1%, 4.7%, and 4.4% respectively, all exceeding the average expenditure growth rate [3] Group 5: Fiscal Policy Measures - To maintain fiscal spending intensity and stabilize economic operations, the Ministry of Finance allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits for enhancing local fiscal capacity and effective investment [4] - In the fourth quarter, 500 billion yuan of new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [4]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.8%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was +1.4%, down from +2.0%[1] - Government fund budget revenue saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.9%, compared to -2.8% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by +13.7%, down from +15.4%[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In November, tax revenue showed a year-on-year decline of -0.02%, with a significant drop in central government revenue by -4.23% and an increase in local government revenue by +4.05%[3] - The four major tax categories experienced a decline in growth rates, with individual income tax growth at +11.43%, consumption tax at +3.31%, and domestic VAT at +3.31%[4] - Corporate income tax growth turned negative, dropping by 12.49 percentage points, likely due to a slowdown in the cleanup of irregular tax subsidies[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue in November showed a year-on-year decline of -15.8%, an improvement from -18.4% in the previous month[24] - Government fund budget expenditure recorded a year-on-year growth of +2.8%, a significant recovery from -38.2%[25] - The cumulative progress of government fund budget revenue for the first 11 months was 64.4%, below the five-year average of 71.5%[25] Infrastructure and Debt Management - The issuance of new local special bonds reached 4.46 trillion yuan, with a completion rate of 96.9% against the annual plan[34] - The acceleration of fiscal spending in November was evident, particularly in infrastructure and employment-related expenditures, which improved significantly[15] - The overall fiscal deposit decline in November indicates a faster allocation of fiscal funds to projects, supporting infrastructure investment stability[15]

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal operation in China remains stable, with a low growth trend in fiscal revenue for the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting a steady economic performance despite challenges in certain sectors [3][4]. Revenue Summary - National general public budget revenue for the first 11 months reached approximately 20.1 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, consistent with the previous 10 months, while November's revenue remained flat compared to the same month last year [3]. - Tax revenue, a key economic indicator, totaled about 16.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. November's tax revenue was approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year [3]. - Major tax categories showed stable growth: domestic value-added tax increased by 3.9%, corporate income tax by 1.7%, domestic consumption tax by 2.5%, and personal income tax by 11.5%, driven by a vibrant capital market [3]. - However, real estate-related tax revenues declined, with contract tax down 14.3% and land value-added tax down 17.3% [3]. Non-Tax Revenue Summary - Non-tax revenue for the first 11 months was approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, attributed to stricter regulations on confiscated income and limited growth potential from previous asset mobilization efforts [4]. Government Fund Revenue Summary - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, was about 4 trillion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer income decreasing by 10.7% [5]. Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure for the first 11 months was approximately 24.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%. Government fund budget expenditure was about 9.2 trillion yuan, up 13.7% [6]. - Expenditure growth has slowed overall, but spending on social security, health, and education has increased by 8.1%, 4.7%, and 4.4% respectively, all above the average expenditure growth rate [6]. - To maintain fiscal spending strength, the Ministry of Finance allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local financial capacity and effective investment, with nearly all of this funding now issued [6].

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal performance in China for the first eleven months of 2025 shows stable growth in major tax categories, despite low growth in total fiscal revenue and challenges in the real estate sector [2][3]. Revenue Performance - Total general public budget revenue reached approximately 20.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, consistent with the previous ten months [2] - Tax revenue, a key economic indicator, amounted to about 16.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [2] - In November, tax revenue was approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, showing a growth of 2.8% compared to the same month last year [2] - Major tax categories, including domestic VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, and personal income tax, experienced stable growth rates of 3.9%, 1.7%, 2.5%, and 11.5% respectively [2] - The significant growth in personal income tax is attributed to an active capital market and increased income from dividends [2] Real Estate Impact - The real estate sector continues to negatively impact related tax revenues, with contract tax declining by 14.3% and land value-added tax decreasing by 17.3% year-on-year [3] Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue for the first eleven months was approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.7% [4] - The decline in non-tax revenue is linked to stricter regulations on penalty income and limited growth potential from previously enhanced asset management [4] Government Fund Revenue - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, was about 4 trillion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, with land sale income decreasing by 10.7% [5] - The decline in land sale revenue has widened compared to previous months, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market [5] Fiscal Expenditure - General public budget expenditure reached approximately 24.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [5] - Government fund budget expenditure was about 9.2 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase of 13.7% [5] - Expenditure on social security, health, and education has outpaced the average growth rate, with increases of 8.1%, 4.7%, and 4.4% respectively [5] Policy Measures - To maintain fiscal spending strength and stabilize economic operations, the Ministry of Finance allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits for effective investment [6] - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance has established a tiered export tax system for gold, which will take effect on December 23, 2023, with rates ranging from 7.5% to 15% depending on the gold price per ounce [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tax Rate Mechanism - The tax rate will be differentiated based on the level of processing, with higher rates for lower processed gold (e.g., raw gold bars and gold ore close to 15%, while refined gold bars and high-purity gold grains around 7.5%) [3]. - The tax rates will adjust dynamically with international gold prices, meaning higher prices could lead to higher tax rates [3]. Group 2: Export Regulation - Export of gold with purity below 99% is prohibited, while gold with purity of 99% or higher (such as gold bars and grains) must submit third-party testing reports to enhance compliance [3]. Group 3: Implementation Timeline - The new export tax is set to officially start in 2026, with specific months to be determined by a ministerial regulation, and a transition period will be established to mitigate short-term impacts on businesses [3]. Group 4: Revenue Goals - The implementation of this policy is expected to generate approximately $360 million annually for Indonesia, aimed at addressing the national budget deficit in 2026 [3]. - The planned gold export tax could contribute around 30 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately $1.7975 billion) to national revenue in 2026, while coal export taxes may yield 200 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately $12 billion) [4].