Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China remains stable, with a balanced supply and demand, as indicated by the data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) for October, showing a surplus in bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In October, banks settled 214.2 billion USD and sold 196.5 billion USD, resulting in a settlement surplus of 17.7 billion USD, which has narrowed compared to previous months [1] - The settlement and sales rates are consistent with the average levels observed in the first nine months of the year, indicating a more balanced foreign exchange activity [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital flows remained stable, with a slight net outflow in September due to holiday factors, followed by an increase in net inflows in October, leading to an average monthly surplus of 24 billion USD over the two months [1] - High levels of net inflow from trade in goods were maintained, while seasonal declines were noted in cross-border expenditures related to travel and foreign enterprise dividends [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The Deputy Director of SAFE, Li Bin, noted an increase in volatility in international financial markets and a general rise in the US dollar index since October [1] - Overall, the expectations for China's foreign exchange market remain stable, with a balanced supply and demand, showcasing strong resilience and vitality [1]

Group 1: Market Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks may significantly increase gold purchases in November, with gold prices potentially rising to $4,900 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Policy News - China's fiscal revenue from January to October reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% [4] - In October, China's foreign exchange settlement by banks was $214.2 billion, with a surplus of $17.7 billion, indicating a net inflow of cross-border funds [4] - The real estate market in China is stabilizing, with second-hand home transactions dominating, showing a 4.7% year-on-year increase in transaction area from January to October [4] Group 3: Employment and Inflation - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson noted an increase in downside risks to employment, while inflation risks may have slightly decreased [5] - The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated mixed signals in the labor market, suggesting a potential slowdown [5] Group 4: International Economic Data - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2024, primarily due to weak exports and residential investment [6] - The European Commission forecasts a faster-than-expected economic expansion in the Eurozone, with GDP growth projected at 1.3% for the year [6] - India's trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, influenced by increased gold imports and decreased exports to the U.S. [6] Group 5: Commodity and Industry News - Indonesia plans to implement an export tax of 7.5% to 15% on gold products starting next year [6] - Mysteel reported a decrease in iron ore arrivals in China, with total arrivals at 2,369.9 million tons, down 399.4 million tons week-on-week [7] - The coal market is experiencing a decline in operational rates, with a reported drop in production and inventory levels [8]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported data on bank foreign exchange settlement and sales for October, indicating a stable foreign exchange market in China despite increased volatility in international financial markets [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Data - In October, banks settled foreign exchange at $214.2 billion and sold $196.5 billion, resulting in a surplus of $1.77 billion, which has narrowed compared to previous months [1] - The foreign exchange rates for settlement and sales remained consistent with the average levels from the first nine months of the year [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital flows remained stable, with a net inflow of capital in October following a slight net outflow in September due to holiday factors [1] - The average monthly surplus for cross-border receipts and payments over the two months was $24 billion, with high levels of net inflow from trade in goods [1] - Seasonal declines were noted in cross-border expenditures related to travel and dividend payments, while outflows from service trade and investment income decreased compared to previous months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained a stable operation despite increased volatility in the international financial market and a rising US dollar index [1]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - Since October, the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market have remained basically balanced, with a surplus of $17.7 billion in bank foreign exchange transactions, showing a month-on-month narrowing of the surplus [1]. - The exchange rates for both currency purchases and sales have remained consistent with the average levels from the previous nine months [1]. Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flow - Cross-border capital flows have remained stable, with a slight net outflow from non-bank sectors in September due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, followed by an increase in net inflows in October [1]. - The average monthly surplus for cross-border receipts and payments over the two months is $24 billion [1].

Core Insights - In October 2025, China's banks reported a foreign exchange settlement surplus of $17.7 billion, with total settlements of $214.2 billion and sales of $196.5 billion [1][2] - From January to October 2025, cumulative settlements reached $2,067.5 billion, while cumulative sales totaled $1,986.6 billion [1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained a stable operation, with a balanced supply and demand [1][2] - The surplus in October showed a month-on-month narrowing, indicating a more balanced settlement and sales activity [1] - The average monthly surplus for cross-border receipts and payments over the two months was $24 billion, with a high level of net inflow from trade in goods [1] Group 2 - The fluctuations in the international financial market have increased, with a general rise in the US dollar index [1] - Seasonal factors, such as the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, contributed to a slight net outflow of funds from non-bank sectors in September, but there was an increase in net inflows in October [1] - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality [2]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China remains stable despite increased volatility in international financial markets, with a balanced supply and demand situation observed in October 2025 [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In October, the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was $17.7 billion, showing a narrowing trend compared to previous months, indicating a more balanced settlement and sales activity [1] - The settlement and sales rates for enterprises and other entities were consistent with the average levels from the first nine months of the year [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital flows remained stable, with a slight net outflow from non-bank sectors in September due to holiday factors, followed by an increase in net inflows in October [1] - The average monthly surplus for cross-border receipts and payments over the two months was $24 billion, supported by high levels of net inflow from goods trade [1] - Seasonal declines were noted in cross-border expenditures related to resident travel abroad and foreign enterprise dividends, while the net outflow from service trade and investment income narrowed compared to previous months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international financial market has seen increased volatility since October, but China's foreign exchange market remains stable with a balanced supply and demand [2] Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow - In September, there was a slight net outflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [2] - In October, there has been an increase in net inflows of cross-border funds, leading to an average monthly surplus of $24 billion over the two months [2] - The net inflow of funds from goods trade remains high, while seasonal declines in cross-border expenditures such as outbound travel and foreign enterprise dividends have been observed [2] Group 2: Market Stability - The foreign exchange market in China continues to operate steadily despite the fluctuations in the international financial market [2] - The overall cross-border capital flow remains stable, indicating resilience in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is maintaining a stable operation despite increased volatility in international financial markets and a rising US dollar index [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The supply and demand in the foreign exchange market are basically balanced, with a surplus of 17.7 billion USD in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales in October, showing a slight month-on-month contraction [1] - The foreign exchange settlement and sales activities are more balanced, with the settlement and sales rates remaining consistent with the average levels of the previous nine months [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital flows remain stable, with a slight net outflow from non-bank sectors in September due to holiday factors, followed by an increase in net inflows in October [1] - The average monthly surplus for cross-border receipts and payments over the two months is 24 billion USD, with high levels of net inflow from goods trade [1] - Seasonal declines in cross-border expenditures such as outbound travel and foreign enterprise dividends have been observed, while the net outflow from service trade and investment income has narrowed month-on-month [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **foreign exchange (FX) market** and the **cross-border capital flows**, with a focus on the **USD** and **EUR** currencies. Key Takeaways 1. **USD Investor Demand** - The demand for USD by Bank of America (BofA) investors in the past month was the strongest since June 2024, driven mainly by asset managers. - Asset managers' USD buying last week was the largest since July, although they remain net short on dollars, indicating a light position overall [1][5][6]. 2. **EUR Supply Dynamics** - There was a significant supply of EUR last week, the strongest since May, primarily driven by corporates. - All BofA client types, except hedge funds, were net sellers of EUR, suggesting a souring sentiment towards the currency [6][10]. 3. **Emerging Market (EM) FX Flows** - EM FX flows turned negative across all regions, indicating a moderating sentiment. - Notable selling was observed in currencies such as SGD, ZAR, BRL, and to some extent, MXN [7][9]. 4. **Investor Positioning** - The positioning of BofA investors in G10 currencies as of October 31, 2025, shows varied sentiment across different currencies, with asset managers showing a slight long position in EM currencies [24][27]. - The aggregate positioning for USD was noted to be negative, while positioning for AUD and NZD showed some positive trends [16][24]. 5. **Options and Futures Flows** - The snapshot of FX options and futures flows indicates mixed sentiment, with some currencies like JPY and GBP showing negative positioning, while others like AUD and NZD had positive flows [14][33]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment** - The overall sentiment in the FX market appears to be cautious, with a notable shift in positioning among asset managers and hedge funds, reflecting broader market uncertainties [4][6][24]. - **Potential Risks** - The report highlights potential risks associated with the current positioning and market dynamics, suggesting that investors should be aware of the volatility and changing trends in the FX market [4][5]. - **Data Sources** - The analysis is based on proprietary data from BofA Securities, including flow data, positioning data, and market sentiment surveys, providing a comprehensive view of the current market landscape [9][30]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the dynamics of the FX market, investor behavior, and emerging trends that could influence future investment strategies.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In September, the Fed initiated its first rate cut of the year, the US dollar index fluctuated, onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates showed mixed trends, and the "three - price" unification trend intensified with stable market expectations [2] - The recent RMB appreciation has increased the negative impact on export enterprises' financial conditions, but China's foreign trade growth remains resilient [2] - Cross - border capital flows continued to be balanced in September, shifting from a small net inflow to a small net outflow, with securities investment being the main contributor [2] - The enhanced willingness to settle foreign exchange led to a continuous surplus in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales for the seventh consecutive month in September, and the surplus reached a record high [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fed's Rate Cut and RMB Exchange Rate - In September, the Fed started its first rate cut of the year due to increased employment downside risks in the US. The US dollar index first declined and then rebounded, and the RMB exchange rate appreciation slowed down [3] - The RMB central parity rate fluctuated slightly in a narrow range; the onshore and offshore spot exchange rates first rose and then fell. The "three - price" unification trend of the RMB exchange rate intensified, and market expectations were basically stable [4] - The RMB's nominal and real effective exchange rate indices continued to rise, but China's goods export volume still increased year - on - year, indicating that exchange rate changes are not the main factor for China's foreign trade resilience [6] Cross - border Capital Flows - Cross - border capital flows continued to be balanced in September, shifting from a small net inflow to a small net outflow. Securities investment was the main contributor [2] - Foreign investors slowed down their reduction of RMB bonds, and the balance of their RMB stocks continued to increase, but different types of foreign capital flow data showed differentiation, indicating a cautious and optimistic attitude towards participating in the A - share market [2] Bank Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales - The willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, driving the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales to have a continuous surplus for the seventh consecutive month in September, and the surplus reached a record high [2] - The change in the domestic foreign exchange supply - demand relationship since March was mainly due to the weakening of market participants' motivation to purchase foreign exchange [2] - In the future, if the exchange rate expectation turns to the appreciation direction, it may trigger a concentrated release of foreign exchange settlement demand [2]