欧洲央行管委雷恩：必须避免对通胀前景感到自满。 ...

贸易紧张局势可能会降低经济增速。 大多数长期通胀预期在2%左右。 通胀前景比以往更加不确定。 欧洲央行行长拉加德：通胀目标将稳定在2%。 劳动力成本正在逐渐放缓。 经济增长风险偏向下行。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：通胀前景比以往更为不确定。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：目前尚不清楚关税将如何影响通胀前景。 ...

印度央行：温和的通胀前景和适度的经济增长支持货币政策维持对增长的支持立场。 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor Hawkesby indicated that growth is facing headwinds in the short term [1] - The revision of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) forecast path is described as moderate [1] - This adjustment reflects a weaker inflation outlook compared to the February estimates [1]

欧洲央行会议纪要：不确定性、欧元升值以及油气价格下跌，将进一步抑制近期的通胀前景。 ...

Group 1 - The central bank of Iceland indicates that the uncertainty regarding inflation prospects remains high, particularly due to recent changes in the global economic landscape [1]

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：鉴于通胀前景，自去年夏季以来每季度25个基点的降息节奏"过于激进"。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive "pause" since the beginning of the current rate cut cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points across three meetings [2][3] - Concerns regarding "stagflation" risks have intensified, with the Fed emphasizing increased uncertainty in economic outlook and rising risks of high unemployment and inflation [3][4] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Fed's ability to provide clear guidance on interest rate paths is hampered by ongoing policy uncertainty, making it challenging to restart the rate cut cycle in the short term [4] - The Fed's stance on tariffs has shifted, acknowledging that announced tariff increases have exceeded expectations and could lead to rising inflation, slower economic growth, and higher unemployment if sustained [4] - The Fed's view on inflation has evolved, moving away from the notion of "transitory" impacts of tariffs, recognizing that the effects could be either "one-time shifts" or "persistent," depending on the scale and duration of tariffs [4] Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to perform well amid potential "hard landing" scenarios in the U.S. economy, driven by factors such as a renewed Fed rate cut cycle, dollar depreciation, and increased central bank gold purchases [5] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is anticipated to benefit from the Fed's rate cut cycle, with opportunities for excess returns in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] - U.S. equities are facing a trend of adjustment rather than temporary fluctuations, with increasing economic downturn risks affecting profit growth expectations [5] - U.S. Treasury bonds may present a trend-based allocation opportunity only after inflation recedes, with potential for rapid interest rate increases due to repayment risks in the interim [5]