亚太市场开盘集体杀跌！ 有机构今早发布点评认为，这可能是对前天亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克宣布辞职引发独立性担忧的集体反击。 然而，这只会激起特朗普政府更强硬的行动。 博斯蒂克周三突然宣布，将于2026年2月28日任期届满时退休。按照规定，现年59岁的博斯蒂克原本还有资格 连任一届，继续担任主席直至65岁强制退休。他在货币政策上的立场倾向"鹰派"，主张防范通胀上升，敦促他 的同事们对降低利率保持谨慎，并警惕关税的潜在影响。 亚太市场的对冲 那么，亚太市场是否存在对冲之机？ 11月14日，日经225指数低开1.3%，韩国首尔综指低开2.6%。随后，日经225指数日内跌幅扩大至2%，软银跌 9%。 虚拟币亦是全线杀跌。XBIT Wallet数据显示，BTC比特币一度跌落至98990.7美元，24小时跌幅达接近3%；以 太坊大跌近6%，至3200美元附近；狗狗币大跌近4%。分析认为，市场杀跌的主因是美联储官员集体反击。 "黑天鹅"突袭 昨晚，美国市场股债汇三杀可能是亚太市场今早崩跌的主因。而引发美国资本市场巨震的"黑天鹅"正是美联储 官员的集体反击。在就业数据明显走弱、通胀尚无较大压力的情况下，几位联储官员纷纷放鹰，坚 ...

昨晚，全球市场启动"团灭式下跌"： 金价自日内高点一度跌100美元，美元跌至一个月低位，比特币跌破10万美元，美国股市则全线溃败 （纳斯达克指数跌幅超2%）。 第一，这次下跌没有安全的资产，就连黄金和美国国债也一同下跌，连"避险都不避险"。市场正在经历 一场巨大的"强制减仓"过程。 第二，昨天有两个事件点值得关注：北京时间15:00和21:30。两种不同"恐惧来源"，叠加在一起，引爆 了行情。 · 15:00，开始有了下跌苗头，特朗普签字，美国政府停摆结束。美股期货在消息落地后，转而跌了—— 政府重启，反而是"不确定性开始大爆发"。过去 43 天，没有数据，就没有坏消息。现在数据洪流回来 了，停摆43天堆积的数据，将在未来三周一次性砸出，这才是市场真正紧张的开始。 · 21:30，加速下跌，当时旧金山联储主席戴利说了一句"坚决反对提高美联储的通胀目标"，是市场厄运 的开始（言外之意，别指望美联储"认输式降息"，宁愿维持更久的高利率，也要把通胀压回2%）。市 场瞬间明白，美联储不打算"和市场妥协"。更糟糕的是，随后又来一连串柯林斯、穆萨莱姆、古尔斯 比、施密德全部在强调不支持12月降息——市场对12月降息的概率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the signs of stabilization and recovery in major price indicators, with CPI turning from decline to an increase of 0.2% year-on-year in October, and core CPI rising by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [2]. Price Stabilization - Major price indicators have shown signs of stabilization and recovery due to more proactive macro policies and consumption promotion measures [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [2]. Inflation Target Perspective - Experts suggest that China's inflation target of around 2% should be viewed from a medium to long-term perspective, acknowledging the time lag in the effects of macro policies, especially monetary policy [4]. - The shift in macroeconomic regulation should focus more on promoting consumption and improving people's livelihoods rather than relying heavily on investment [4]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The low price levels in China are fundamentally a result of the supply-demand relationship, characterized by strong supply and weak demand in the real economy [5]. - Demand-side factors include a slowdown in traditional real estate and infrastructure investments, while new growth drivers like technological innovation and green development are emerging but may not fill the gap in traditional investment demand in the short term [6]. - On the supply side, the long-standing investment-driven development model has led to inefficiencies and over-competition in some sectors, resulting in rapid capacity expansion in emerging industries [7]. Macro Policy Adjustments - Recent macro policy adjustments have shown increasing effectiveness, with significant consumer subsidies and support for personal consumption loans reflecting a shift towards policies that prioritize improving livelihoods and promoting consumption [8]. - In the first three quarters, consumption contributed 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a stronger role of consumption as an economic growth engine [9]. - The focus of fiscal policy has shifted from primarily investment in projects to improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, aligning with the transition to high-quality development [9].

Group 1 - The core inflation target of around 2% in China should be viewed from a medium to long-term perspective, as the effects of macroeconomic policies, especially monetary policy, typically have a time lag [1][3] - Major price indicators have shown signs of stabilization and recovery, with the CPI rising to 0.2% year-on-year in October, and the core CPI increasing by 1.2%, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [1][2] - The current low inflation is attributed to various factors on both supply and demand sides, and a combination of macroeconomic policies is needed to promote reasonable price recovery [1][4] Group 2 - The recent macroeconomic policies have been more proactive, with a focus on promoting consumption and improving living standards, which has led to a solidifying economic recovery [2][5] - The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year, highlighting the growing role of consumption as an economic driver [5] - The shift in macroeconomic policy thinking is evident, moving from a heavy reliance on investment to a greater emphasis on consumption and social welfare, which is expected to enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The South African Rand has strengthened against the US dollar for the first time since February 2023, trading below 17 Rand per dollar, following the government's adoption of a lower inflation target, suggesting that interest rates may remain high for a longer period than previously expected [1] Group 1: Economic Implications - The South African Treasury states that a lower price growth target will reduce inflation expectations and actual inflation in the long run, creating room for interest rate reductions [1] - This shift is expected to support household spending and business investment, thereby boosting economic growth [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Piotr Matys, a senior foreign exchange strategist at In Touch Capital Markets, indicates that the South African Reserve Bank may have less room to lower interest rates following the Treasury's adoption of the new lower inflation target [1] - If the trend of the South African Rand continues and the external environment remains favorable for risk assets, it could lead to further adjustments in the USD/ZAR exchange rate [1]

新华社开普敦11月12日电（记者王雷 王晓梅）南非财政部长埃诺赫·戈东瓜纳12日在南非立法首都开普 敦宣布，将南非2025年经济增长预期下调至1.2%，并将新的通胀目标设定为3%。 ...

Core Points - South Africa's Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced a downward revision of the country's 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.2%, influenced by domestic and international factors such as trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The new inflation target has been set at 3% with a 1% fluctuation range, replacing the previous target of 3% to 6%, to better respond to unexpected inflation shocks [1] - The government aims to stabilize public debt at 77.9% of GDP by the 2025/26 fiscal year, marking the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that public debt as a percentage of GDP will not increase [1] Economic Strategy - Structural reforms, particularly in the energy and logistics sectors, are deemed crucial for enhancing economic growth [2] - The strategy for achieving faster growth and healthier finances is based on four pillars: maintaining macroeconomic stability, implementing structural reforms, enhancing national capacity, and supporting infrastructure development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The December monetary policy will be a "real balancing act" between employment and inflation targets, as inflation remains high without signs of decline, while the economy shows some resilience [1] Economic Conditions - Many Americans are struggling with housing and other living costs, indicating economic pressure on the middle and lower-income groups [1] - There is evidence that these groups are facing issues related to economic affordability, which poses risks to consumer confidence and spending [1]

Core Points - The Central Bank of Turkey maintains its medium-term inflation target for the end of 2026 at 16%, despite recent price pressures [1] - The bank has adjusted its inflation forecast for the end of 2025 from a range of 25%-29% to 31%-33%, while keeping the 2023 mid-term inflation target unchanged at 24% [1] - The Central Bank's inflation report indicates that inflation rates have exceeded previous forecasts due to rising food prices [1] Summary by Categories - **Inflation Targets** - The Central Bank of Turkey sets the medium-term inflation target for the end of 2026 at 16% [1] - The inflation forecast for the end of 2025 has been revised to a range of 31%-33% from the previous 25%-29% [1] - The mid-term inflation target for 2023 remains at 24% [1] - The medium-term target for the end of 2027 is set at 9% [1] - **Recent Economic Conditions** - Recent inflation rates in Turkey have been higher than previously predicted, primarily driven by increases in food prices [1] - The Central Bank emphasizes a firm policy stance to stabilize inflation expectations [1] - **Monetary Policy Approach** - The Central Bank will tighten monetary policy further if future inflation trends deviate significantly from the target range [1] - Decisions will be made based on inflation as the core focus, adhering to a cautious principle and evaluating each meeting's specific circumstances [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the sixth consecutive meeting without change, reflecting a cautious approach to economic uncertainty [2][4] - Two members of the policy committee voted in favor of raising the rate to 0.75%, indicating growing internal divisions regarding inflation pressures and the normalization of interest rates [2][4] - The central bank emphasized the need to monitor economic data closely, suggesting that if inflation continues to improve, a gradual rate hike may be considered to prevent overheating [2][4] Group 2 - The latest economic forecast from the Bank of Japan raised the GDP growth rate for the fiscal year 2025 to 0.7%, driven by increased corporate investment and consumer recovery [4] - Core CPI is expected to remain around the 2% target over the next three years, supported by falling energy prices and wage growth, although risks of inflation decline due to weak demand or cost fluctuations were noted [4][5] - The improvement in economic data provides room for potential rate hikes, but the central bank must ensure the sustainability of inflation [4][5] Group 3 - Following the announcement, the yen experienced a brief rebound, with the USD/JPY rate dropping to 153.08, but later retraced some gains due to ongoing pressure from interest rate differentials with other major economies [5][7] - Market reactions indicate that the necessity for a rate hike is increasing, with concerns that inaction could lead to further yen depreciation and heightened import inflation [5][7] - The future trajectory of the yen will depend on the timing of the Bank of Japan's rate hikes and the global economic environment, necessitating close monitoring of subsequent data releases [5][7] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan faces increasing domestic and international pressures, with rising wages and consumer recovery potentially driving sustained inflation [7][8] - Calls for interest rate normalization from the business sector are growing, while the high interest rate environment maintained by other central banks exacerbates yen weakness and capital outflow risks [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan may initiate rate hikes in early next year, but the approach will be gradual to avoid disrupting the fragile economic recovery [7][8]