Group 1 - Cobalt stocks continue to rise, with Liqin Resources (02245) up 6.68% to HKD 17.4 and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) (03993) up 0.55% to HKD 12.9 [1] - The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and setting export quotas for 2026-2027 at only 44% of annual production [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the export quotas will lead to global cobalt supply being significantly below normal levels from 2025 to 2027, which is expected to drive cobalt prices higher [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that the extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15 will be followed by quotas, with the 2026-2027 quota set at 40% of normal production [1] - If Luoyang Molybdenum receives a proportional quota, potential sales for Q4 2025 could be approximately 8,600 tons, and around 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1] - Minsheng Securities highlights that Liqin Resources has a large-scale nickel production capacity in Indonesia with cost advantages, positioning the company to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]

Group 1 - Cobalt stocks continue to rise, with Liqin Resources up 6.68% to HKD 17.4 and Luoyang Molybdenum up 0.55% to HKD 12.9 [1] - The Congolese government updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and setting export quotas for 2026-2027 at only 44% of annual production [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the export quotas will lead to significantly lower global cobalt supply from 2025 to 2027, resulting in a strong potential increase in cobalt prices [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that if Luoyang Molybdenum receives proportional quotas, potential sales could be approximately 8,600 tons in Q4 2025 and about 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1] - Minsheng Securities highlights that Liqin Resources has a large-scale wet nickel production capacity in Indonesia, which positions the company to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, with a quota system to be implemented thereafter, indicating the government's commitment to controlling global cobalt prices [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The DRC's Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority (ARECOMS) announced the extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15 [1] - Starting October 16, cobalt exports will be subject to a quota system, with the export quota for 2026-2027 set at only 44% of annual production [1] Group 2: Market Implications - CITIC Securities suggests that the quota system reflects the DRC government's determination to stabilize global cobalt prices by flexibly adjusting supply [1] - The export quota policy is expected to result in significantly lower global cobalt supply from 2025 to 2027, with supply shortages projected at 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively [1] - As a result, cobalt prices are anticipated to rise sharply, benefiting companies involved in cobalt smelting in Indonesia and those with mining operations in the DRC [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Congolese government has extended the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, and implemented an export quota system for 2026-2027, limiting exports to 44% of annual production, indicating a strong intention to control global cobalt prices [1][4][6] Group 1: Export Policy Changes - The Congolese government announced the extension of the cobalt export ban and the introduction of an export quota system, which aligns with market expectations [2] - The export quota will not apply to companies with less than 100 tons of cobalt exports in 2024, those without active mining operations for five years, and companies with depleted cobalt reserves [2][3] Group 2: Cobalt Export Quota Details - The export quota for October 16 to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,125 tons, with specific monthly allocations [3] - For 2026, the total export quota is 96,600 tons, which includes a baseline quota of 87,000 tons and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons, managed by ARECOMS [3] - The 2027 export quota will remain the same as 2026, but ARECOMS reserves the right to adjust it based on market conditions [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The new export quota policy is expected to lead to a significant decline in global cobalt supply, with shortages projected at 12.2, 8.8, and 9.7 million tons for 2025-2027 [4][5] - Global cobalt demand is anticipated to grow, with expected demand of 25.7 million tons in 2025 and 27.5 million tons in 2026, indicating a persistent supply shortage [5] Group 4: Government's Strategic Intent - The consistency of the Congolese government's cobalt policies reflects its commitment to controlling global cobalt prices and managing supply effectively [6] - The government is expected to adjust supply flexibly to stabilize cobalt prices, marking a new phase in the global cobalt industry [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that cobalt prices have shown significant fluctuations due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with a 58% increase from February 24 to June 20, followed by a 6% increase from June 20 to September 18 [1] - The DRC's export ban has led to high inventory levels in the cobalt industry outside the DRC, and weak downstream demand during the off-peak season has contributed to the limited price increase after the ban was extended [1][2] - China's imports of cobalt raw materials from the DRC have significantly decreased since June, with imports dropping by 61%, 30%, and 64% from June to August, leading to only 9% of the average import level in August [2] Group 2 - The DRC's measures to control cobalt exports aim to boost prices and prevent low-cost outflows of strategic resources, while also enhancing the country's international influence [3] - The DRC is developing a quota system to manage supply, which is expected to systematically elevate the price center of cobalt and secure long-term strategic benefits for its resources [3] - Domestic demand for cobalt is expected to improve, potentially leading to continued inventory reduction and upward pressure on cobalt prices [2]

刚果（金）一纸公告，全球钴市场格局震动。 9月21日晚，刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局（ARECOMS）宣布将原定9月21日到期的出口禁令继续延期 到10月15日，并将于10月16日解除钴出口禁令，实施年度出口配额。 从出口禁令到配额制度 今年2月，钴价暴跌之际，刚果（金）首次宣布为期四个月的钴出口禁令，并在6月延长禁令三个月。 此次最新公告宣布，将原定9月21日到期的禁令将继续延长至10月15日，而自10月16日起，钴出口将进入配额 管理阶段。 根据新规，矿商在今年剩余时间内的出口配额将略高于1.8万吨，2026年和2027年每年的配额上限设定为9.66 万吨。 据Darton Commodities数据显示，刚果（金）2024年钴产量约22万吨，占全球总产量的约四分之三。 ARECOMS主席Patrick Luabeya在接受媒体采访时直言，当前局势"已不再需要全面暂停出口"。 他指出，新的配额制度将在未来几个月内"为未来数年的市场再平衡完成最后的调整"。该政策的明确目标是 将全球钴库存削减至"约相当于一个月需求量"的水平。 钴价半年飙涨超60% 自2月禁令实施以来，钴的价格一路飙升。 数据显示，202 ...

（原标题：全球最大钴矿供应国，官宣大动作！） 据新华财经9月22日消息，刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局21日宣布，该国自10月15日起结束自今 年2月以来实施的钴出口禁令，并于10月16日改为实行出口配额制度，直至另行通知。 该机构在声明中说，在今年余下时间内，在刚果（金）的矿企将被允许出口逾1.8万吨钴，2026年和 2027年每年最高出口量为9.66万吨。配额将根据企业历史出口量比例分配，并"将通知各公司"。 刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局主席帕特里克·卢阿贝亚在接受彭博社采访时表示，目前局势"已无 需全面暂停出口"，新的配额制度将在未来几个月内"完成未来数年市场再平衡所需的最后调整"。他强 调，该政策目标是将全球库存压缩至"相当于一个月钴需求量"的水平。 有分析指出，2025年钴价格显著上涨，主要源于全球最大钴供应国刚果（金）自2月起实施钴产品临时 出口禁令并多次延期，导致全球钴供应明显收紧。与此同时，新能源汽车、消费电子等行业对钴的需求 持续上升，进一步推动钴价走高。 国信证券认为，从全年维度看，对钴价持乐观态度。从长期看，刚果（金）可能实施钴出口配额来提升 对于钴的定价权，钴价中枢有望抬升。 据 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Likin Resources (02245.HK) has successfully transformed from a nickel trading company to a leading nickel smelting enterprise, with its stock price reaching a historical high and a significant increase in market capitalization [1][3] - Over the past 13 months, the company's stock price has surged from 4.13 HKD to approximately 17 HKD, representing a remarkable increase of 290% [1][3] - The company was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at the end of 2022 and operates across the entire nickel industry chain, leading in both trading and production of nickel products [3] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, the company's revenue reached 18.147 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 66.8%, while profit was 2.249 billion HKD, up 131.7% year-on-year [3] - Minsheng Securities has given a "recommended" rating, noting that nickel prices are at a cyclical low with clear cost support, and the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is likely to implement quota systems, leading to supply contraction [3] - The company's wet nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is not affected by export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, allowing it to fully benefit from rising cobalt prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of leading global nickel smelter, Lygend Resources (2245.HK), surged over 17% to a record high of 17.95 HKD, with trading volume reaching 320 million HKD, driven by news of the Democratic Republic of Congo lifting its cobalt export ban and implementing annual export quotas [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of Congo, the world's largest supplier of cobalt, will allow the export of up to 18,125 tons of cobalt for the remainder of 2025, with annual limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027 [1]. - Nickel prices are currently at a cyclical low, with clear cost support, indicating a potential for price recovery [1]. Group 2: Company Positioning - Lygend Resources' wet nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is unaffected by the export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, allowing the company to fully benefit from the anticipated rise in cobalt prices [1]. - The combination of new production capacity and cost advantages significantly enhances the growth potential of Lygend Resources [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock price increase of Liqin Resources (2245.HK), which surged over 17% to reach a historical high of 17.95 HKD, with a trading volume of 320 million HKD [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world's largest cobalt supplier, announced the lifting of its cobalt export ban on October 16, implementing annual export quotas, allowing up to 18,125 tons of cobalt for the remainder of 2025, and annual limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027 [1] - Analysts indicate that nickel prices are at a cyclical low with clear cost support, and the DRC's export quota system may lead to a supply contraction, which is likely to push cobalt prices higher [1] Group 2 - Liqin Resources benefits from rising cobalt prices as its nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, unaffected by the DRC's export restrictions, thus enhancing the company's growth potential [1] - The company is expected to see significant growth due to the release of new production capacity and its cost advantages [1]