Core Viewpoint - The stock of leading global nickel smelter, Lygend Resources (2245.HK), surged over 17% to a record high of 17.95 HKD, with trading volume reaching 320 million HKD, driven by news of the Democratic Republic of Congo lifting its cobalt export ban and implementing annual export quotas [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of Congo, the world's largest supplier of cobalt, will allow the export of up to 18,125 tons of cobalt for the remainder of 2025, with annual limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027 [1]. - Nickel prices are currently at a cyclical low, with clear cost support, indicating a potential for price recovery [1]. Group 2: Company Positioning - Lygend Resources' wet nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is unaffected by the export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, allowing the company to fully benefit from the anticipated rise in cobalt prices [1]. - The combination of new production capacity and cost advantages significantly enhances the growth potential of Lygend Resources [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock price increase of Liqin Resources (2245.HK), which surged over 17% to reach a historical high of 17.95 HKD, with a trading volume of 320 million HKD [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world's largest cobalt supplier, announced the lifting of its cobalt export ban on October 16, implementing annual export quotas, allowing up to 18,125 tons of cobalt for the remainder of 2025, and annual limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027 [1] - Analysts indicate that nickel prices are at a cyclical low with clear cost support, and the DRC's export quota system may lead to a supply contraction, which is likely to push cobalt prices higher [1] Group 2 - Liqin Resources benefits from rising cobalt prices as its nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, unaffected by the DRC's export restrictions, thus enhancing the company's growth potential [1] - The company is expected to see significant growth due to the release of new production capacity and its cost advantages [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Liqin Resources (02245) experienced a significant stock price increase of 8.1% to HKD 16.54, driven by news regarding cobalt export regulations in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1] - The Congolese government announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, with a planned lifting on October 16, and will implement annual export quotas [1] - The annual export limit for cobalt is set at 18,125 tons for the remainder of 2025, and 96,600 tons for both 2026 and 2027, indicating a controlled supply environment [1] Group 2 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the tightening supply situation is expected to lead to a continued rise in cobalt prices in the short term, with strong long-term support for cobalt price levels due to the government's clear stance on supply control [1] - Minsheng Securities reported that Liqin Resources is collaborating with partners to invest in nickel smelting production lines on Obi Island, Indonesia, with a planned capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel and 14,000 tons of cobalt, all expected to be operational by 2024 [1] - The company has a significant production capacity increase planned, with phase one of the pyrometallurgical project already producing 95,000 tons, and additional production lines expected to come online in 2025 and 2026, raising total capacity to 280,000 tons and equity capacity to 155,000 tons [1]

钴行业动态报告：原料进口大幅下降，钴价第二轮上涨启 动 20250920 摘要 刚果金延长钴出口禁令，叠加中国海关数据显示 8 月钴进口量环比大降 60%，加剧原料短缺，短期内供应紧张将推动钴价上涨。 钴价经历多轮周期，当前由刚果金政策主导的上涨与前两轮需求驱动不 同，预计涨幅或不及前两次，但长期来看 35 万元/吨是可见的中枢，短 期原料短缺可能推升至 40 万元/吨。 全球钴资源集中度高，刚果金储量占比 55%，产量占比高达 75%，其 政策变动对市场影响巨大。刚果金政府有强烈的挺价诉求，以保护经济 利益和财政收入。 多数钴矿企业产量下降，仅洛阳钼业产量增长。嘉能可等企业因钴价下 跌而减产或停产，钴生产成本依然存在，价格跌破 16 万元/吨时，多数 企业已停止生产。 2024 年电动汽车电池三元正极材料占钴需求 41%，消费电子钴酸锂正 极占 26%。短期内消费电子需求超预期，三元电池需求受铁锂挤压，但 长期来看固态电池落地后将以三元为主，钴需求潜力巨大。 Q&A 刚果金政府延长钴矿出口禁令对钴行业的影响是什么？ 刚果金政府计划再延长钴矿出口禁令两个月，这一决定将对全球钴行业产生重 大影响。首先，刚果金是 ...

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is currently facing significant changes due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export quota system, which will be implemented on October 15, 2025, limiting exports to less than 50% of last year's production of 220,000 tons, resulting in an export quota of approximately 100,000 tons [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Trends**: Domestic spot cobalt prices have risen from 270,000 yuan to nearly 300,000 yuan, with expectations to reach 400,000 yuan, indicating a potential increase of 35% to 50% [2][3]. - **Supply Tightness**: The DRC's export ban will exacerbate global cobalt supply tightness, with the first shipments not expected to arrive in China until late January 2026. Industry inventory is projected to be fully consumed by the end of this year or early next year, maintaining high cobalt prices [1][3][4]. - **Production Declines**: In August, China's imports of cobalt intermediates dropped by 90% year-on-year, and domestic production of cobalt and cobalt sulfate also saw significant declines of 50% and 26% respectively [5]. - **Future Supply Expectations**: If the current steel and hardware policies continue into 2026-2027, cobalt supply will remain tight next year. The U.S. has announced a procurement of 7,500 tons of cobalt for strategic reserves, impacting metal demand significantly, although market reactions have been muted [6][7]. Investment Opportunities - **Recommended Companies**: Companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin are favored due to their operations outside the DRC, benefiting from supply stability in Indonesia. DRC-related companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Hanrui Cobalt, and Tengyuan Cobalt are expected to see performance improvements as prices rise [7][12]. - **Huayou Cobalt's Performance**: Huayou Cobalt has 180,000 tons of nickel production capacity in Indonesia, with expected shipments of 120,000 metal tons in the first half of 2025, translating to approximately 24,000 tons of cobalt production. The company is also positioned to benefit from inventory gains due to its significant cobalt salt production capacity [9][11]. Price Forecasts - **2025 and 2026 Price Expectations**: The average cobalt price for 2025 is expected to be around 200,000 yuan, while in 2026, prices are likely to exceed 300,000 yuan, with a potential increase of over 50% year-on-year [8][13]. Additional Insights - **Nickel Price Impact**: Current nickel prices are low, but potential closures of nickel plants in Indonesia could stimulate price increases, which would enhance company performance [10]. - **Overall Market Outlook**: The overall outlook for the cobalt market remains positive, particularly for Huayou Cobalt, with expectations of significant profit contributions from rising prices [13].

近期钴原料价格继续上行，高价钴中间品的压力下，钴冶炼厂仅按需采购，部分企业转而选用钴盐替 代，钴盐现货资源相对紧张。 中信建投（601066）证券指出，刚果(金)政府自6月22日起延长3个月出口禁令，至今市场钴原料已显著 消化，7月我国进口钴湿法冶炼中间品量1.38万吨，预计后续月份继续下降，冶炼厂原料库存进一步压 降。刚果(金)禁令三个月延长期即将到期，后续或调整政策，继续延长或配额出口，钴供给问题进一步 强化，消费旺季下需求相对较好，供给紧张，价格有望保持强势。 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Cobalt Sector Industry Overview - The cobalt sector is currently experiencing a price increase trend, supported by Glencore's backing of the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) quota system to enhance cobalt prices, with a significant policy announcement expected on September 22, 2025 [1][2] - Cobalt intermediate prices have seen a slight increase since June 22, 2025, from $13 per pound to $13.7 per pound, but the price rise is limited due to high industry inventory levels [3] Key Points and Arguments - Glencore has ceased external sales of cobalt intermediates to control supply and drive prices up, indicating a potential favorable policy outcome for prices [2] - The DRC's extended export ban could prolong transportation cycles, potentially leading to a supply chain disruption if exports do not resume by late October or November 2025 [6] - Current domestic inventory levels are precarious, with an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 tons remaining by the end of 2025, concentrated in a few major companies [5][6] - The cobalt price trend for 2025 is optimistic, with companies like Huayou, Tengyuan, and Hanrui expected to perform well, particularly after the policy announcement [10] Company Performance - Huayou and Tengyuan are highlighted as reliable investments due to their strong earnings potential, with Huayou benefiting from its Indonesian MHP project [10][13] - Luoyang Molybdenum (Luomoly) is viewed as less favorable for cobalt investments compared to Huayou, Tengyuan, and Hanrui, as its price increase has been limited [11] - Rio Tinto Resources, listed in Hong Kong, achieved a profit of 1.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 despite low nickel prices, with an expected annual profit of 3 billion yuan, making it an attractive investment due to its low valuation [12] Additional Insights - The lack of significant price increases in cobalt is attributed to the absence of public news stimuli, despite expectations of an extended export ban [9] - The market is advised to closely monitor Glencore's sales policies as they will significantly influence price movements [7][8] - The overall recommendation is to invest in Huayou, Tengyuan, and Hanrui, while also considering Rio Tinto Resources for its low valuation and potential growth [13]

Summary of the Conference Call on Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The cobalt price surge is primarily driven by the export ban and quota policy implemented by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) since February 22, 2025, with potential quotas expected after September 22, 2025. If quotas are set below 50% of production, supply tightness will intensify, further driving up cobalt prices [2][5][8]. - Market expectations indicate that cobalt prices could rise to 400,000 CNY per ton in 2025, as the DRC aims to recover from previous losses where prices fell to 150,000-160,000 CNY per ton [2][4]. Company Insights - Huayou Cobalt is positioned as the largest beneficiary of increased cobalt production from nickel by-products in Indonesia, with an estimated cobalt equity of 12,000 tons from nickel production [2][11]. - The company is enhancing profitability through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with lithium sulfate cost reductions expected to contribute 500 million CNY to profits [2][13][14]. - Huayou Cobalt's nickel segment is set to double its production capacity, with the COMALA project expected to commence production by the end of next year and the Sorowako project anticipated to start in 2027-2028 [2][17]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Huayou Cobalt achieved a profit of 2.7 billion CNY, with expectations for improved performance in the second half, leading to an overall profit of over 5 billion CNY for the year [10][12]. - The company's current market capitalization is over 70 billion CNY, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 13, indicating a reasonable valuation with significant upside potential as cobalt and nickel prices are at historical lows [4][12][15]. Market Dynamics - Recent customs data revealed a decrease in imported cobalt intermediate products, with July imports at approximately 14,000 tons, down from over 19,000 tons in June and nearly 50,000 tons in May, contributing to the overall increase in cobalt prices [3]. - The DRC's export ban has led to a tightening supply, with cobalt prices currently ranging between 250,000 and 260,000 CNY per ton, with expectations for a rapid price increase by late August to early September [5][6]. Future Outlook - The cobalt industry outlook remains positive, with expectations for a price surge towards the end of the year, potentially reaching 400,000 CNY per ton [6][10]. - Demand for power batteries and consumer electronics (3C) is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, although the extent of improvement may be limited [9]. - Huayou Cobalt's strategic focus on cost control and efficiency, alongside its growth in nickel production capacity, positions the company favorably for future profitability and stock price appreciation [14][15][17]. Additional Considerations - The DRC is likely to introduce supportive policies post-September 22, which could impact market dynamics significantly. If quotas are set too leniently, it may lead to a price drop, while stricter quotas could sustain or increase prices [8]. - The company is optimistic about the performance of its ternary materials, particularly in the cylindrical battery market, which is expected to see significant growth [14]. This comprehensive analysis highlights Huayou Cobalt's strategic positioning within the cobalt industry, its financial performance, and the broader market dynamics influencing future growth.

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt's performance in H1 2025 aligns with expectations, with a revenue of 37.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.71 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.8% and 62.3% respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's H1 2025 revenue reached 37.2 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.71 billion yuan, up 62.3% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 15.9%, down 0.7 percentage points [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 19.4 billion yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.3% and a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, with a net profit of 1.46 billion yuan, up 27% quarter-on-quarter and 16.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Nickel Production and Profitability - The nickel wet process project continues to exceed production targets, with H1 2025 nickel product shipments of 139,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 84% [2] - The company expects Q2 2025 nickel shipments to remain stable at 70,000 tons, with a projected profit contribution of 3-3.5 billion yuan from nickel in 2025 [2] Group 3: Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt prices are expected to rise, with Q2 2025 cobalt shipments at 10,000 tons, and a potential profit increase of 2 billion yuan due to rising cobalt prices [3] - The company anticipates a second wave of cobalt price increases in late 2025, with potential profit elasticity of 1.5-2 billion yuan if prices exceed 300,000 yuan per ton [3] Group 4: Other Metals and Materials - Copper shipments are projected at 19,000 tons in Q2 2025, with an annual target of 90,000 tons, contributing 700-800 million yuan in profit [3] - The company expects to maintain a breakeven point for lithium carbonate with a total cost of 80,000 yuan per ton in Q2 2025, while a lithium sulfate project is expected to reduce costs to 60,000 yuan per ton by the end of 2025 [3] Group 5: Production and Sales Forecast - The company forecasts a 90%+ increase in ternary cathode shipments for the full year 2025, with Q2 shipments expected to reach 23,000 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 40% [4] - H1 2025 ternary precursor shipments were 42,000 tons, with Q2 expected to remain stable at 21,000 tons [4] Group 6: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 6 billion, 6.75 billion, and 8.24 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12.6x, 11.2x, and 9.1x [5] - A target price of 53 yuan is set for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the current nickel price situation [5]

国金证券8月15日发布研报称，给予腾远钴业（301219.SZ，最新价：60.91元）买入评级。评级理由主 要包括：1）钴价迎来上涨通道，中长期价格中枢有待重估；2）加大铜板块布局，增厚公司盈利基本 盘；3）一体化布局已成，产能仍具备较大增长潜力。风险提示：钴产品价格波动超预期风险、下游需 求表现不及预期风险、限售股解禁风险、钴原材料价格波动超预期风险等。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...