1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are weak, with domestic downstream demand entering the off - season and the开工 rate under pressure. Although the macro - atmosphere is good and many non - ferrous metals have risen, and technically, LME aluminum has broken through the resistance level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View - **Fundamental Analysis**: Domestic and foreign bauxite prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. Alumina operating capacity remains stable, while electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increases slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand is in the off - season. The inventory of aluminum ingots supports the aluminum price, and the demand for recycled cast aluminum alloy is gradually slowing down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [5] 3.2 Macro - economic Indicators - The content mainly presents charts of US Treasury bond yields, the US dollar index, and RMB exchange rates, but no specific analysis is provided 3.3 Bauxite - Shanxi bauxite prices are temporarily stable, while Henan bauxite prices have dropped significantly. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $69.9 per dry ton. Imported ore prices are expected to continue to decline due to increased supply, and $70 per dry ton is the key negotiation price for 2025 long - term contracts [11] 3.4 Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating rate was 83.6%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2724.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28.5 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 458.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 102,000 tons. Alumina enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production [14] 3.5 Alumina Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of alumina basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume, without specific analysis 3.6 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons; the operating capacity was 44.494 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. Some enterprises have reduced production for technological transformation, while new production capacity such as Tianshan Aluminum and Zha Aluminum is gradually being put into operation [23] 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum import profit, Shanghai aluminum forward curve, aluminum rod processing fee, and动力煤 prices, without specific analysis 3.8 Inventory - The content presents charts of aluminum rod social inventory, aluminum ingot social inventory, SHFE aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, without specific analysis 3.9 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 59.8% week - on - week. Since mid - December, the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises have weakened, and demand has gradually slowed down. Environmental protection control in Chongqing has also restricted the recovery of the local operating rate [35] 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum profile prices, aluminum alloy futures forward curve, ADC12 - A00 price difference seasonal trend, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profit, without specific analysis 3.11 and 3.12 Downstream开工 - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 61.5%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 51.6%, and the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 65%. The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises has a pattern of strong expectations but weak reality, and the operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 60% week - on - week [47][51]

1. Report Title and Date - Title: Guinea Mining Enterprises' Resumption Brings Cost Reduction Expectations, Alumina Expected to Run at Low Levels; Bullish Sentiment and Fundamental Support Remain, Shanghai Aluminum Expected to Oscillate Strongly - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Aluminum Industry Chain) Weekly Report [2] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - Alumina is expected to run at low levels due to potential increases in Guinea bauxite supply, but should not be overly bearish considering some domestic enterprises' losses and industry integration possibilities [12][143][148] - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, with upward drivers from bullish sentiment and capital, and fundamental support from demand and inventory trends [13][144][148] - Cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum prices, but its upward potential may be limited by weakening demand expectations and high inventory [14][145][148] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review - **Macro and Important News**: On December 10, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% - 3.75%. A Guinea - based enterprise was allowed to resume operations, and if the Axis mine resumes in December, it will contribute about 40 million tons of supply in 2026 [8] - **Overall Market**: This week, alumina oscillated downwards, Shanghai Aluminum oscillated weakly, and aluminum alloy oscillated weakly [11] - **Outlook**: Alumina may see cost and price support decline due to increased bauxite supply; Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly with bullish sentiment and fundamental support; cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow aluminum prices but with limited upside [12][13][14] 4.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: As of December 12, the average domestic alumina spot price was 2,792.78 yuan/ton, down 17.31 yuan/ton from December 5 [27] - **Supply**: As of December 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 79.62%, up 0.15% from December 4. In November 2025, China's metallurgical alumina production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year [31] - **Import and Export**: On December 10, the average FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from December 4. The import window was open [32] - **Cost and Profit**: As of December 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,860 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from December 4. The industry loss was about 60 yuan/ton [34] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, alumina port inventory was 130,000 tons, up 3,000 tons from the previous week. In October 2025, China had a net alumina import [41] 4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: As of December 5, coal prices in major producing areas decreased, and Yunnan's hydropower price in December rose to about 0.468 yuan/kWh. The price of pre - baked anodes remained stable [51][54] - **Cost and Profit**: As of December 11, China's electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,383 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from December 4. The average industry profit narrowed to about 5,300 yuan/ton [57] - **Supply**: In November 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. In December, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly [60] - **Spot**: As of December 12, the average price of Yangtze River non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 22,050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from December 5 [63] - **Demand**: As of December 11, the operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises was 61.8%, down 0.1% from the previous week. In November, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry rose above the boom - bust line [69] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, aluminum ingot inventory was 584,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from December 4, and aluminum rod inventory was 116,500 tons, down 4,500 tons from December 4. By November, the industry's aluminum - water ratio decreased slightly [72] - **Futures Inventory**: As of December 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 69,160 tons, up 2,327 tons from December 5. From December 5 - 10, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 7,050 tons to 518,750 tons [77] - **Import and Export**: The aluminum ingot import profit window was closed. In October 2025, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, with a cumulative export of 5.02 million tons from January - October, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [80][84] - **Terminal**: The real estate market is slowly recovering. In early December, automobile consumption data showed weakness [92] 4.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw Materials**: The supply of scrap aluminum is affected by aluminum prices and seasonal factors. The price of scrap aluminum is expected to be strong [14] - **ADC12 Cost and Profit**: The cost of ADC12 includes scrap aluminum, silicon, and copper. The industry is currently in a loss state [107] - **ADC12 Spot Price**: The average price of ADC12 shows seasonal changes [109] - **Overseas ADC12 Price and Import Profit**: The price of overseas ADC12 and the import profit situation are presented [112] - **Supply**: The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloy are analyzed. The supply of aluminum alloy may decrease marginally [118][145] - **Demand**: The demand for cast aluminum alloy mainly comes from the automobile industry, but the sustainability of orders is uncertain [123][145] - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum alloy includes social inventory and factory - level inventory [132] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy is analyzed [136] 4.5 Future Outlook - **Alumina**: The resumption of Guinea's mining enterprises may increase bauxite supply, but due to enterprise losses and industry integration, it should not be overly bearish. Caution is advised when short - selling [143] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: After the Fed's December interest rate cut, bullish sentiment is strong. With fundamental support, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly [144] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow aluminum prices to oscillate strongly, but the upside may be limited by demand and inventory [145]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry has successfully listed on the Hong Kong stock market, with a significant first-day increase of 32.76%, bringing its market capitalization close to HKD 30 billion [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Innovation Industry focuses on the upstream aluminum industry chain, specifically in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [2] - The company is the fourth largest electrolytic aluminum production base in North China and the twelfth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China based on 2024 production [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue increased from CNY 13.49 billion in 2022 to CNY 13.81 billion in 2023, and is projected to reach CNY 15.16 billion in 2024 [3] - Net profit rose from CNY 0.91 billion in 2022 to CNY 1.08 billion in 2023, with a significant increase to CNY 2.63 billion in 2024 [3] - Revenue for the first five months of 2024 was CNY 5.88 billion, up 22.6% from the same period in 2025 [3] Group 3: Client Relationships - Innovation Industry's largest client is Innovation New Materials, which is also controlled by the same actual controller, Cui Lixin [4] - Revenue from Innovation New Materials accounted for 78.8%, 76.6%, and 59.8% of Innovation Industry's total revenue for 2023, 2024, and the first five months of 2025, respectively [4] Group 4: Investment and Market Strategy - The company plans to allocate 50% of the net proceeds from its global offering to a project in Saudi Arabia, indicating a strategy for overseas expansion [5] - A significant number of institutional investors participated in the IPO, including Hillhouse Capital, which invested approximately HKD 777 million [6]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry is set to officially list on the Hong Kong stock market on November 24, following a successful dark market phase where its stock price increased by 26.02% [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Innovation Industry is the twelfth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China and focuses on the upstream aluminum industry, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [7][8]. - The company is controlled by Cui Lixin, who also controls the A-share company Innovation New Materials [4][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum production is highly energy-intensive, and Innovation Industry benefits from self-generated electricity and low power costs due to abundant resources in Inner Mongolia [8][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue growth has been consistent, with total revenue increasing from RMB 134.90 billion in 2022 to RMB 138.15 billion in 2023, and projected to reach RMB 151.63 billion in 2024 [10][12]. - The net profit rose from RMB 9.13 billion in 2022 to RMB 10.81 billion in 2023, with a significant increase expected to RMB 26.30 billion in 2024 [12][10]. Group 3: Business Relationships - Innovation Industry has a close business relationship with Innovation New Materials, which is its largest customer, accounting for 78.8% of its revenue in 2023 [15][16]. - The company emphasizes that transactions with Innovation New Materials are conducted at fair market rates and do not indicate excessive reliance on related parties [16]. Group 4: Market Participation - The IPO attracted significant interest from top-tier investment institutions, including Hillhouse Capital, Jinglin, and China Hongqiao, indicating strong market confidence [18][19].

本文为节选内容 更多报告，关注公众号：矿产资源市场调研 铝产业链包括"铝土矿-氧化铝-电解铝-铝制品-再生铝"等几个环节。从开采得到的含铝矿石中制备得到氧化铝，然后以氧化铝、烧碱等为原料，用熔盐电解 的方式冶炼制取原铝（电解铝），再通过压延、挤压等方式进一步加工成铝带箔、铝型材、铝合金等产品，相关产品主要应用于建筑、交通、电力电子、耐 用消费品等下游行业。 铝土矿是生产氧化铝的核心要素，碱法是当前主流的工业化生产方式。铝土矿是一水软硬铝石及三水铝石为主的矿石，表现形态为高岭土、赤铁矿及石英 等，储量形态以红土型铝土矿为主。铝土矿下游需求的90%为生产氧化铝，而全球超过90%的氧化铝又以铝土矿作为生产原材料，因此铝土矿作为氧化铝必 备的生产要素具有显著的不可替代性。而生产方式上，铝土矿生产氧化铝大致可分为四类，分别是碱法、酸法、酸碱联合法和热法，其中碱法是当前主流的 氧化铝生产方式。所谓碱法生产就是用碱来分离铝土矿中的氧化铝（转变成铝酸钠溶液）及赤泥（铁、钛等不溶解化合物残渣），分解过后的铝酸钠溶液再 进行进一步的解析从而得到氢氧化铝，然后通过进一步的焙烧得到氧化铝产品。 全球铝土矿资源分布呈明显的区域性集中特 ...

Group 1 - The company plans to globally offer 500 million shares, with 50 million shares available in Hong Kong and 450 million shares internationally, along with an overallotment option of 75 million shares [1] - The subscription period is from November 14 to November 19, with a maximum offer price of HKD 10.99 per share and an entry fee of approximately HKD 5,550.42 for 500 shares [1] - The total expected fundraising amount is HKD 5.293 billion, with a net amount of HKD 5.113 billion, intended for expanding overseas capacity, green energy projects, working capital, and general corporate purposes [1] Group 2 - The company focuses on the upstream aluminum industry chain, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting, which are the highest value-added segments according to CRU's report [2] - The company's net profits for the fiscal years ending December 31 are projected to be HKD 881 million for 2022, HKD 1.004 billion for 2023, and HKD 2.056 billion for 2024 [2]

公司聚焦于铝产业链上游中的氧化铝精炼和电解铝冶炼。铝产业链主要包括上游铝生产和下游铝合金加 工。上游铝生产主要包含三个阶段:铝土矿开采、氧化铝精炼和电解铝冶炼。根据CRU的报告，按照吨 铝附加值计算，精炼和冶炼是铝产业链中附加值最高的环节。 公司2022年度、2023年度、2024年度截至12月31日止，净利润分别为8.81亿元、10.04亿元、20.56亿 元。（数据宝） 公司引入HHLR Advisors, Ltd.、Glencore International AG、Mercuria Holdings (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.、泰康 人寿保险有限责任公司、中国宏桥集团有限公司等基石投资者，将以发售价共认购数量下限约2.48亿股 可购买发售的股份。 创新实业预计于2025年11月24日在主板上市，中国国际金融香港证券有限公司、华泰金融控股（香港） 有限公司为联席保荐人。 创新实业(02788.HK)发布公告，公司拟全球发售5.00亿股股份，其中香港发售股份5000.00万股，国际发 售股份4.50亿股，另有7500.00万股超额配股权。招股日期为11月14日至11月19日，最高发售价10 ...

格隆汇11月14日丨创新实业(02788.HK)发布公告，公司拟全球发售5亿股股份，中国香港发售股份5000 万股，国际发售股份4.5亿股(以上可予重新分配及视乎超额配股权行使与否而定)；2025年11月14日至11 月19日招股，预期定价日为11月20日；发售价为每股发售股份10.18-10.99港元，股份将以每手500股股 份买卖，中金公司及华泰国际为联席保荐人；预期股份将于2025年11月24日开始在联交所买卖。 集团已订立基石投资协议，据此，基石投资者已同意在符合若干条件的前提下，按发售价就相关数目的 发售股份认购或促使彼等指定实体认购可以总金额约3.36亿美元(或约26.12亿港元)购买的该等股份。按 发售价每股股份10.58港元(即本招股章程所载指示性发售价范围的中间价)计算，基石投资者将认购的发 售股份总数将为约2.47亿股发售股份。基石投资者包括HHLR Advisors, Ltd.("HHLRA"，为Hillhouse Group的一部分)、中国宏桥集团有限公司、泰康人寿、Glencore AG、ercuria Holdings(Singapore)Pte. Ltd、景林资产管理香港有限公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum sector, particularly companies like Innovation Industry Group, is gaining attention in the global capital markets alongside AI industries, with significant stock price increases and upcoming IPOs in Hong Kong [1][2][3]. Company Overview - Innovation Industry Group, founded in 2012 and headquartered in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, focuses on the aluminum industry, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [8][9]. - The company has a production capacity of 788,100 tons for electrolytic aluminum and 1,200,000 tons for alumina, with high capacity utilization rates exceeding 94% for electrolytic aluminum and 88% for alumina [12][13]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown growth, with figures of 13.49 billion RMB in 2022, 13.81 billion RMB in 2023, and projected 15.16 billion RMB in 2024, alongside net profits of 0.913 billion RMB, 1.081 billion RMB, and 2.63 billion RMB respectively [16][19]. - The gross profit margin has fluctuated, with a notable increase to 28.2% in 2024, but a decrease to 19.9% in the first five months of 2025 due to rising raw material costs [16][19][26]. Market Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is driven by applications in various sectors, including electronics, automotive, and construction, with electrolytic aluminum accounting for approximately 70% of global consumption [31][38]. - The company is positioned as the 12th largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China, which is a major player in the global aluminum market [37]. Supply Chain and Costs - The main raw materials include bauxite, carbon anodes, coal, alumina, and electricity, with electricity costs constituting about 36% of total production costs [23]. - The company has a high self-sufficiency rate for electricity at 88%, significantly above the industry average of 57% [23]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces challenges related to high debt levels, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 84.8%, and reliance on imported bauxite, which is subject to global supply chain fluctuations [15][28][25]. - The price of bauxite has increased, impacting profit margins, and the company has a high dependency on a few major clients, with significant revenue coming from related party transactions [27][28]. Future Outlook - The global demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1.6% from 2025 to 2028, with China's demand projected to increase slightly [38]. - The company’s ability to navigate market fluctuations and maintain stable operations will be crucial for its future performance [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and updated its post-hearing prospectus on November 9, focusing on the upstream aluminum industry chain, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [3][5]. Company Overview - Innovation Industry's business is primarily divided into the production and sales of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with electrolytic aluminum sales contributing 76.6% of total revenue for the five months ending May 31, 2025 [3][8][12]. - The company strategically established its operations in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, since 2012, positioning itself as the fourth largest electrolytic aluminum production base in North China by 2024 [12][14]. Financial Performance - For the five months ending May 31, 2025, Innovation Industry reported revenue of approximately 7.214 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, while shareholder profit was approximately 756 million RMB, a decrease of 14.1% [3][15]. - The company's revenue and profit figures for previous years indicate a fluctuating performance, with notable growth in revenue but a decline in profit for the latest reporting period [15]. Production Capacity - As of May 31, 2025, the annual designed production capacity for electrolytic aluminum in Hohhot is 788.1 thousand tons, and for alumina in Binzhou, Shandong, it is 1.2 million tons [13][14]. - The actual production figures for the same period were 310.7 thousand tons of electrolytic aluminum and 664.5 thousand tons of alumina, with self-sufficiency rates for alumina and electricity at 70% and 87%, respectively [14]. Future Plans - The company plans to use the net proceeds from its fundraising for expanding overseas capacity, including building electrolytic aluminum smelting plants and purchasing production equipment, as well as for green energy projects and general corporate purposes [7][17]. - Innovation Industry aims to invest in a comprehensive electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia with an expected annual capacity of 500 thousand tons [12].