Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic situation will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility. It is expected that London gold will run in the range in the short - term and then break through. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions, and short - term traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. - In the short - term, due to factors such as inflation data and Fed officials' attitudes, gold's volatility has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may fluctuate widely between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: In July, US overall CPI was lower than expected, but core CPI was higher. The US Treasury Secretary called for a 50BP rate cut in September. The Fed's rate - cut expectation pushed the dollar index down to around 97.6 and London gold rebounded to $3375 per ounce. However, two Fed officials' cautious attitudes led to a gold price correction. Trump's new policy boosted gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility increased, and it's recommended to trade with a long - term view and medium - low positions. This week, focus on the US - Russia summit, US inflation data, Fed officials' statements, and China's economic data [4]. - **Domestic Market Data**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 780.46, up 0.13%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9305, down 0.13%; Gold T+D closed at 775.06, up 0.05%; Silver T+D closed at 9270, down 0.09% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade situation and US fiscal expansion weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks supported it. Fed's rate - cut expectation rose due to the nomination of new Fed governors and a weak employment market. Speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum in June, and silver prices fluctuated in July. The gold - silver ratio in London stabilized after falling to 86. It's expected that London gold will continue to run in the range in the short - term [5]. 3.2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides six charts including Shanghai precious metals futures indices, London precious metals spot prices, basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold TD, precious metals ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7]. 3.3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump threatened Putin over the Ukraine issue and may hold a US - Russia - Ukraine summit. The US Treasury Secretary said sanctions might increase if the US - Russia summit goes badly and called on Europe to impose sanctions [8]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: After US July inflation data, the market thought the probability of a 25BP rate cut in September was 99.9%. The Treasury Secretary thought a 50BP cut was possible, and Trump was narrowing down the candidates for the next Fed Chair [8]. - **Fed Officials' Views**: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was worried about inflation and labor market assumptions, and needed multiple months of good inflation data to support rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Bostic thought the job market was close to full - employment, and the Fed should avoid policy volatility [9]. - **Economic Policy**: The US Treasury Secretary said the 15% revenue - handing - over agreement for semiconductor sales to China might expand to other industries and denied national security concerns [9].

摘要周四（8月14日）亚洲时段，国际黄金自日内高位回落，现交投于3358美元附近，美元指数自两周 低点反弹，对以美元计价的黄金构成一定压力，短线多空拉锯加剧，地缘政治因素的潜在缓和，在一定 程度上打压了黄金作为避险资产的买需。如果地缘风险进一步缓解，黄金的上涨动力可能会面临挑战。 周四（8月14日）亚洲时段，国际黄金自日内高位回落，现交投于3358美元附近，美元指数自两周低点 反弹，对以美元计价的黄金构成一定压力，短线多空拉锯加剧，地缘政治因素的潜在缓和，在一定程度 上打压了黄金作为避险资产的买需。如果地缘风险进一步缓解，黄金的上涨动力可能会面临挑战。 【要闻速递】 据三位知情人士透露，美国总统特朗普告诉欧洲和乌克兰领导人，美国愿意在一定条件下为乌克兰提供 安全保障。这次讨论是德国周三安排的虚拟会议的一部分，目的是在特朗普周五与俄罗斯总统普京举行 峰会之前协调美国和欧洲的立场。 这三位人士都表示，如果达成停火协议，美国愿意向基辅提供某些帮助，阻止俄罗斯未来再度进犯。 知情人士说，特朗普称，他只有在不牵涉到北约的情况下才会做出这样的承诺。特朗普对这种保证持开 放态度有助于解释欧洲官员为何在会谈后和周五会议前表达 ...

基本面： 尽管黄金受益于货币政策宽松，但地缘政治因素的潜在缓和，却在一定程度上打压了其作为避险资产的买需。特朗普总统将于周五与俄罗斯总统普京会晤， 讨论结束乌克兰战争的事宜，这一消息引发市场对冲突降温的乐观预期。欧洲和乌克兰领导人已在会晤前与特朗普进行沟通，希望推动停火而不损害乌克兰 利益。此外，中美两国将关税休战期延长90天，这也缓解了全球贸易摩擦的紧张氛围。这些发展让投资者暂时减少了对黄金的避险配置，转而青睐风险资 产。芝加哥联储总裁古尔斯比表示，美联储正在努力评估关税对通胀的短期或长期影响，这将直接影响降息时机的决策。 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克则指出，美国经济接近充分就业，这为美联储提供了不急于调整政策的"奢侈条件"。然而，这些言论也暗示，如果地缘风险进一 步缓解，黄金的上涨动力可能会面临挑战，因为避险需求是金价传统支撑之一。日内交易者主要关注晚间PPI数据影响。 技术面： 日线级别，金价昨日续录得小实体收盘表现受限，盘中一度测试3370一线后至尾盘再次回归胶着区间内报收，短期或仍面临更多多空争夺，交易者留意3390 附近短期多空争夺。1--4小时级别，短线走势自3410附近高点回吐涨幅后本周表现略显清 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the volatility of gold prices influenced by various factors, including tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and economic data [3][4][5] - The first factor affecting gold prices is the reversal of tariff policies, where the market initially reacted to fears of tariffs on gold, leading to speculative buying and a subsequent price surge. However, the announcement by Trump on August 9 that gold would not be subject to tariffs led to a sell-off by speculators, causing downward pressure on prices [3][4] - The second factor is the geopolitical situation, particularly the upcoming summit between Trump and Putin on August 16 regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The potential for a peace agreement could reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, but the strong opposition from Ukraine and European nations introduces uncertainty, providing some support for gold prices [4][5] - The third factor is the economic data released by the U.S. Labor Department, indicating a 2.7% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index for July, with core CPI rising to 3.1%. This data creates mixed signals regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, impacting gold prices as market participants weigh the likelihood of rate cuts [5][6] Group 2 - The analysis of gold price movements indicates a shift from stability to volatility, with prices fluctuating between support and resistance levels. The current support level is identified at 3278, while resistance is at 3430. A breakout above the August 8 high of 3409 is necessary for a stronger upward movement [8] - Technical indicators suggest that the market may experience a weak trend before any potential rebound, with the price currently under pressure from the 20-day moving average at 3356. The MACD and KDJ indicators also indicate a bearish sentiment in the short term [8]

8月12日，COMEX黄金价格下跌0.15%至3399.60美元/盎司，沪金主连下跌0.11%至776.28元/克。 新世纪期货研报：短期来看，美最新CPI低于市场预期巩固美联储降息预期，对金价形成支撑；中美贸 易关税休战的再度延长，降低市场对贸易紧张局势的担忧，俄乌和平谈判的潜在进展使得黄金避险需求 降温，预计金价维持高位震荡。 （8月13日）全国黄金价格一览表 8月12日，上期所黄金期货仓单36045千克，环比上个交易日持平。 分析观点： | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 773.7元/克 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海黄金现货市场 | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 774.2元/克 | 市场价 | 上海市/黄浦区 | 上海黄金 | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 773.07元/克 | 市场价 | 上海市/黄浦区 | 上海黄金 | 期货市场上看，8月13日收盘，沪金期货主力合约报777.72元/克，涨幅0.08%，最高触及777.82元/克， 最低下探773.8 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Fluctuations - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, with New York futures dropping 2.8% on August 11, breaking the support level of $3400 per ounce, while London cash prices fell 1.42%, currently around $3350 per ounce [1][2] - Despite price fluctuations, the largest gold ETF, SPDR, saw its holdings reach a historical high of 964.22 tons, increasing by 11 tons since August 1 [2] Group 2: Gold Demand Trends - According to the World Gold Council's report, global gold demand in Q2 2025 reached 1249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, with China's retail gold investment and consumption demand at 245 tons, down 10% quarter-on-quarter but up 28% year-on-year [3] - Gold ETF investments remain a key driver of total gold demand, with inflows of 170 tons in Q2, contrasting with outflows in the same period last year [3] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks increased their gold reserves by 166 tons in Q2, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting further increases in the next 12 months [4] - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 7396 million ounces at the end of July, marking a continuous increase for nine months [5] Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - The World Gold Council anticipates that gold prices may fluctuate within a narrow range in the second half of the year, supported by macroeconomic uncertainties [6] - Gold mining companies are expected to report strong earnings, with eight companies forecasting positive results, including Western Gold, which expects a net profit increase of 96.35% to 141.66% for the first half of 2025 [6] Group 5: Company Performance - Shandong Gold announced an expected net profit of 25.5 billion to 30.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 84.3% to 120.5% [7]

来源：赛博AI实验室 本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 黄金暴跌三大主因解析（2025年8月12日最新动态） ⚡ 直接导火索：特朗普澄清关税政策 美联储降息预期面临挑战 关税乌龙事件逆转 上周五（8月8日），美国海关误将进口金条纳入加税清单（39%关税），导致纽约黄金期货飙升至历史 高点3534美元/盎司，期现溢价一度达130美元。 8月11日特朗普紧急辟谣，在社交媒体宣布"黄金不会被征收关税"，市场恐慌消退，金价单日重挫 2.5%，跌破3400美元关口至3404.7美元/盎司。 供应链影响 关税误传期间，瑞士等黄金供应商暂停对美发货，COMEX交易所库存占比飙升至86%（正常为 40%-45%），流动性风险加剧。特朗普澄清后，供应链紧张预期缓解，溢价消失。 地缘与政策：避险需求降温 俄乌停火前景 特朗普计划于8月15日与普京在阿拉斯加会晤，商讨乌克兰停火协议。市场对地缘风险缓和的乐观情绪 削弱黄金避险需求。 机构SPAngel报告指出，和平协议预期是金价承压的关键因素。 通胀数据成焦点：7月美国CPI将于8月12日公布，若核心CPI同比加速至3.0%（华尔街预测），可能推 迟美联储9月降息（当前市场押注概 ...

日内将可关注美国7月NFIB小型企业信心指数、美国7月CPI年率及月率等各项数据，市场整体预期偏向利空金价的概率较大，故此日内来看仍可高空看回 落为主，但如今日反弹触及3370美元或上方，就算遇阻回落，只要不收线在3340美元下方，后市都将再度转为看涨反弹为主。 反之如数据弱于预期，则将会提升降息预期，推动金价持稳反弹，那么本周后市将继续回归到低多看涨的策略。 张尧浠：黄金税谣言澄清金价走低、日内再迎美CPI回落出尽 上交易日周一(8月11日)：国际黄金大幅回落收跌，因美国总统特朗普表示不会对进口金条征收关税，中美再次暂停实施24%关税90天，欧洲领导人及泽连 斯基将与特朗普通话等，减弱了黄金避险需求； 一举收复上周涨幅，一度跌至60日等均线下方，空头力量加强，有望再度回踩100日均线支撑目标，但日内短周期有止跌反弹需求，关注反弹动力，如今 日不能反弹收线在中轨或5日均线上方，则后市仍将继续看回落触及100日均线支撑后再看反弹。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3398.34美元/盎司，直接先行走强录得日内高点3404.51美元，之后遇阻回落，持续走低，并震荡偏弱，延续至美盘尾录日内 低点3341.22美元，最终有 ...

Core Points - President Trump announced that there will be no tariffs on imported gold bars, leading to a significant drop in international gold prices, which fell over 2% on the same day, marking the largest decline in nearly three months [1][2] - The recent volatility in gold prices was influenced by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the potential impact on the gold market, with futures contracts experiencing a nearly 2.5% drop, falling below $3,400 per ounce [2][3] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation reports, as a weaker-than-expected employment report has increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of no tariffs, gold prices initially surged to a record high of $3,534.10 per ounce before retreating as the White House planned to clarify tariff-related misinformation [2] - The COMEX inventory levels are currently at 86% of open contracts, significantly higher than the normal range of 40%-45%, indicating no liquidity issues in the market [3] - Analysts suggest that the elimination of tariff uncertainty may lead to a more bearish outlook for gold prices, especially if upcoming inflation data exceeds expectations [4] Trade and Economic Factors - The ongoing trade tensions and recent tariff announcements by the U.S. government are expected to influence gold prices, with the market reacting to the potential for new tariffs on various goods, including pharmaceuticals [4] - The anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Putin regarding the Ukraine conflict is also seen as a factor that could affect gold prices, as hopes for a ceasefire may reduce safe-haven demand for gold [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant decline due to reduced geopolitical tensions, impacting its safe-haven demand, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve officials' speeches [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 2.8% year-over-year increase, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year [2]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.33% month-over-month increase in core CPI for July, aligning with market expectations, while overall CPI is projected to rise by 0.27% [2]. - Bank of America predicts a 0.24% month-over-month increase in overall CPI and a 0.31% increase in core CPI for July, which could elevate the core CPI year-over-year growth from 2.9% to 3.1% [2]. Market Impact - If CPI data exceeds expectations, the U.S. dollar may strengthen further, putting additional downward pressure on gold prices; conversely, weaker data or renewed geopolitical risks could enhance gold's appeal as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - A closing price below $3,300 for gold could shift the outlook to bearish, while a breakout above the $3,400 resistance level may pave the way for new historical highs [3]. - Current support levels for gold are around $3,365, followed by $3,350 and $3,335, with $3,300 being a critical short-term level [3].