■机构展望 全球大类资产风险偏好回暖 A股"红十月"行情可期 ◎记者 汪友若 10月9日，A股将迎来长假后的首个交易日。回顾长假期间，全球大类资产表现呈现显著的"风险偏好回 暖"与"再通胀交易"特征。 兴业证券称，受全球货币和财政双宽松政策预期的提振，长假期间全球风险资产表现亮眼，这为A股行 情演绎创造了积极的宏观环境。更重要的是，10月A股即将进入三季报交易窗口，这将带动资金聚焦景 气线索、凝聚新的共识，提供更多可挖掘的投资机会。 东吴证券表示，传统日历效应下，长假后市场多呈现"涨多跌少"的格局。且今年长假前2个交易日，市 场已出现资金提前博弈反弹的动作，因此后市指数层面需重视量价的配合情况。长假期间，内外部消息 面较积极，尤其是美联储降息预期升温、AI产业趋势催化显著，预计短期内市场风格或偏向具备产业 消息面催化、远期成长属性更强和估值更低的方向。 华金证券认为，长假前部分投资者担忧的地缘政治冲突、海外流动性收紧等风险事件并未发生。短期A 股流动性或维持充裕、风险偏好持续回暖，A股长假后有望延续震荡偏强的走势。 展望后市，券商研报的共识是，此次长假期间海外市场消息面偏积极，全球主要风险资产联动走强，美 股 ...

进入四季度，险资对A股市场的配置策略备受关注。多位险资投资人士表示，在宏观经济企稳向好、政 策持续发力的背景下，对权益市场整体持乐观态度，其中以科技创新为代表的新质生产力仍是投资主 线，同时将关注周期性行业的估值修复机会。 看好科技、周期板块 展望四季度，多位险资投资人士认为，宏观经济企稳向好的趋势不变、政策支持力度不减，A股市场有 望行稳致远，包括险资等在内的机构投资者预计将加大权益资产配置力度，或成为市场重要的增量资金 来源。 在具体的投资方向上，多位险资投资人士提到，看好科技成长领域相关投资机会。某中小保险资管公司 相关负责人表示，四季度看好具有成长性的AI产业，包括国产算力产业链、AI应用等细分方向的投资 机会。 另一中小保险资管公司权益投资负责人表示，展望后市，科技领域仍是一大投资主线，将重点关注信创 与国产化方向的投资机会。此外，四季度，将在科技和周期板块之间进行均衡配置。整体来看，石油化 工等周期性行业目前估值较低，投资性价比显现，具有一定的配置价值。 电子行业成险资调研重点 中国证券报记者注意到，今年以来，险资机构频频调研A股上市公司。 Wind数据显示，今年前三季度，险资（包括保险公司和保险 ...

Group 1 - Private equity institutions express optimism about the continuation of the A-share market after the National Day holiday, while also advising a balance between defensive and offensive strategies, particularly regarding the valuation pressure on certain technology stocks [1] - Fusheng Asset notes that aside from technology stocks, other sectors returned to a range-bound trend in September, with a cautious but optimistic outlook for the overall market performance, highlighting signs of marginal improvement in leading companies in "anti-involution" industries such as engineering machinery and chemicals [2] - Dushuquan Investment indicates that the recent fluctuations in the A-share market are a result of short-term local surges followed by a phase of adjustment in funds and sentiment, with current liquidity primarily driven by domestic institutions and existing investors [3] Group 2 - Dan Yi Investment emphasizes that the current market dynamics are driven by multiple structural forces rather than conventional economic cycles, with a focus on opportunities in AI cloud computing, domestic computing power supply chains, and edge applications [4] - Ning Shui Capital observes a recent decline in market trading activity and stresses the need to balance defensive and offensive strategies while monitoring the pre-increase direction of Q3 reports and being cautious of valuation pressures in certain technology stocks [4] - Yuan Lesheng Asset highlights a clear rotation in sectors this year, with new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and high-dividend sectors experiencing alternating surges, while also optimizing internal structures by reducing exposure to technology stocks and increasing positions in the manufacturing sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Huatie's subsidiary terminated a 3.69 billion yuan computing power service agreement due to market changes and lack of purchase orders, prompting regulatory scrutiny from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2][4][6] Group 1: Contract Termination - The computing power service agreement was originally signed in March for a five-year term, with an expected annual revenue of approximately 700 million yuan [4][6] - The termination was attributed to significant changes in market conditions and supply-demand dynamics since the contract was signed, with no purchase orders received [6][7] - The company confirmed that the termination of this routine business contract would not impact its normal operations or long-term strategic plans in the computing power sector [7] Group 2: Company Strategy and Operations - Hainan Huatie has been focusing on expanding its computing power services and has established a digital technology division to enhance its capabilities in the AI industry [7] - The company has reported delivering computing power assets exceeding 1.4 billion yuan as of the end of the reporting period [7] - Hainan Huatie's business primarily involves equipment leasing, with a focus on engineering equipment services and intelligent computing services [7]

Market Performance - In September, the A-share market closed positively with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index remaining flat. The indices recorded gains of 0.64%, 6.54%, and 12.04% respectively for the month, marking five consecutive months of increases, with the ChiNext Index achieving a quarterly gain of over 50%, the second-best in history [1][2] Sector Performance - In September, the power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the defense, banking, and non-bank financial sectors lagged behind [3] - For the first three quarters, the communication, electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors were the top performers, with the banking sector being the only one to show a decline among 31 primary industries [5] ETF Performance - The "Global Vision, Bet on China" top ten core ETFs saw a cumulative increase of 5.64% in September, with a total gain of 38.96% for the first three quarters, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 21 percentage points [7] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF led the gains in September with a rise of 16%, and a cumulative increase of 75.2% for the first three quarters. The ChiNext 50 ETF followed closely with a September gain of 14.53% and a cumulative increase of 59% for the year [7][8] A500 Index and ETF - The A500 ETF (512050) rose by 4.52% in September, with a cumulative gain of 24.11% for the first three quarters. The A500 Index outperformed the CSI 300 Index by over 1 percentage point in September, with a cumulative gain nearly 4 percentage points higher for the year [9][11] - The A500 Index benefits from a balanced industry distribution and a focus on growth sectors, with a significant representation of leading companies across various industries [11] ChiNext 50 ETF - The ChiNext 50 ETF closely tracks the ChiNext 50 Index, which selects the 50 largest and most liquid stocks from the ChiNext market, focusing on new energy, technology, and pharmaceuticals. The top ten weighted stocks include industry leaders such as CATL and Mindray, capturing the benefits of technological revolutions [13] Securities Sector - The securities sector experienced a sudden surge after a month of decline, likely due to the upcoming third-quarter earnings reports and increased trading activity. The average daily trading volume in A-shares reached 2.1 trillion yuan, a 67% increase from the previous month and double the year-on-year figure [16] - The securities sector saw a net inflow of over 230 billion yuan into securities-themed ETFs, with the broker ETF experiencing a net inflow of 60.3 billion yuan [16]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising over 1%, and the Southbound Technology ETF (159269) gaining 1.4%, with a net subscription of 28 million units since July 10, resulting in a cumulative increase of 22% [1] - AI applications are experiencing several catalysts, including the upcoming release of OpenAI's new Sora video generator, which will produce copyright-protected video content, and the launch of the DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp model, which has significantly reduced API pricing, enhancing algorithm breakthroughs and cost savings [1] - Historical data shows that the Hang Seng Index has an 86.7% probability of rising during long holidays, with a median increase of 2.1% [1] - Major Chinese companies are clarifying their AI strategies, and Everbright Securities reports that the overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively strong, with scarce assets in internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, suggesting potential for continued upward movement in the market [1] Group 2 - The Southbound Technology ETF (159269) closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, covering key industries such as internet, automotive innovation, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, with a net inflow of over 1.297 billion yuan since July 25, leading to a 97.55% increase in shares over two months [2] - The management and custody fee rate for this ETF is among the lowest in its category at "0.3% + 0.05%" [2]

K字签证的具体细节尚未披露，如果按照高标准严格筛选海外申请者，符合标准的海外科技人才有望成为国内科技行业发展的助力。不过，有来 华工作意向的海外青年科技人才数量有限，他们本就是多数国家争抢的对象，对国内就业环境的整体影响有限，其实没必要引起焦虑。 六部门发文着力发展智能装备和系统 商务合作▲点击图片 中国将增设青年科技人才K签证 9月29日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。有记者就即将于本周三生效的"K字签证"相关问题提问。对此，郭嘉昆表示，为促进中外青年 科技人才交流与合作，中方决定在普通签证类别下，增设青年科技人才签证即"K字签证"。关于申办K字签证的具体事宜，请关注中国驻外使领 馆即将发布的相关信息。 据悉， K字签证签发给从境内外知名高校或者科研机构科学、技术、工程、数学学科领域专业毕业并获得相应学历学位证书（学士学位及以 上），或者在上述机构从事相关专业教育、科研工作的外国青年科技人才。相较于现有的12类普通签证，K字签证将在入境次数、有效期、停留 期方面为持证人提供更多便利。（澎湃新闻） ｜点评｜ 中美两国今年在对待签证的政策上形成鲜明对比，中国对外来旅客、人才持更加开放的态度，美国则在收紧相关 ...

Core Insights - Company Jinzi Ham is making a strategic investment in the semiconductor industry by acquiring up to 20% of Zhongsheng Microelectronics for no more than 300 million yuan, reflecting its confidence in the AI and optical communication markets while adopting a cautious approach to risk management [1] Industry Overview - There are currently 1.076 million semiconductor-related enterprises in China [4] - The registration of semiconductor-related companies has shown an overall growth trend over the past decade, with 2023 marking a record high of 206,600 new registrations, a year-on-year increase of 19.85% [4] - For 2024, it is projected that 195,100 semiconductor-related companies will be registered, which is a decrease from the previous year but still at a high level [4] - As of now, 165,500 semiconductor-related companies have been registered this year, with 147,900 registered in the first eight months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.05% [4] Company Formation Trends - Most semiconductor-related companies have been established in the last five years, with those founded within 1-3 years making up 29.91% of the total [7] - Companies established within 3-5 years and within 1 year account for 21.33% and 19.86% respectively [7] Regional Distribution - Semiconductor-related companies are primarily concentrated in the South China and East China regions, accounting for 35.08% and 33.95% respectively [9] - Companies in Central China, Southwest China, and other regions account for less than 8% of the total [9]

格隆汇9月28日｜申万宏源表示，A股调整后，"红十月"是大概率。10月又是一个关键的政策布局窗 口，调整兑现后，更有利于资本市场预期稳中有升。顺周期催化还需等待，需求侧重点看26年新一 轮"政策底"到"经济底"的推演，供给侧26年中供给出清。但25Q4顺周期催化相对乏善可陈。而科技产业 催化仍在趋势中，海外AI产业趋势向上，尚未触及边界，国内AI产业趋势同样在不断进步。当前本就 处于科技产业亮点不断增加的周期，9月调整周期以来，小级别的结构亮点不断。10月产业亮点和长期 政策布局共振，结构热度可能重新升温。此外，2026年春季可能是阶段性高点，大概率不是2026年全年 高点，更不是本轮全面牛市的高点。牛市还有纵深，随着时间的推移，全面牛市演绎的条件会越来越充 分。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 09 月 28 日 政策基调或暂时重回稳增长 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，1）Q3 价格企稳趋势强化，高频数据显示 9 月传统产业价格重新回 升，受下游需求提振，新能源领域价格回升势头更为明显。2）国内稳增长政 策即将加力，Q4 财政集中发力，但由于 7-8 月经济数据下行过多，完成全年 增长目标仍有压力，预计国庆节后将会出台稳增长相关政策。 海外方面，1）特朗普宣布对重型卡车、厨卫建材、家具、药品加征关税，部 分关税有 232 调查程序作为支撑。2）美国 Q2 实际 GDP 环比折年率上修至 3.8%，经济数据强劲引发降息预期持续降温。 资产方面，1）国内政策基调暂时重回稳增长，或暂时迎来股债双牛。压制融 资成本诉求令利率债或迎来短暂做多窗口，经济回升预期或令权益风格暂时趋 于均衡。2）美国基本面暂无衰退风险，后续降息预期的变化大概率也不会对 市场构成负面影响。一旦 AI 产业高景气度延续就能助力美股继续向上。 货币流动性跟踪（9 月 22 日——9 月 26 日） 流动性复盘： 本周，临近跨季和十一长假，资金面整体延续偏紧。基准利率上行约 1 ...