Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market in 2025 exhibited a clear structural differentiation, with precious metals leading the market, while non-ferrous and new energy metals also performed well. The year 2026 is expected to see a moderate economic recovery and a more accommodative liquidity environment, with investment strategies focusing on selecting sectors and controlling pace as key to success [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy is projected to recover moderately in 2026, with an upward trend in the global manufacturing cycle and a stable domestic economy despite differentiation. Inflation and corporate profits are likely to rise moderately [3]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to lower global short-term rates, further enhancing the upward potential of the global manufacturing cycle [3]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The core feature of the capital market in 2026 will be a multi-dimensional "K" type differentiation, characterized by strong external factors versus weak internal factors, old versus new economy, AI versus non-AI, and supply bottlenecks versus supply elasticity [3][4]. - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are anticipated to be the main asset allocation varieties in 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The allocation value of precious metals continues to rise, making them one of the main varieties for 2026. The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the U.S. strategic shift towards Europe and South America are expected to enhance gold's safe-haven and allocation value [4]. - The growth in gold ETFs, particularly in European countries, reflects the increasing allocation value of gold [4]. Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals - The pricing logic of non-ferrous metals is undergoing reconstruction, with a likely upward trend in price centers in 2026. Demand from sectors such as new energy, data centers, and infrastructure investment is driving this change, while traditional real estate demand is declining [4]. - Major countries, led by the U.S. and China, are focusing on resource and key mineral reserves, which will significantly alter short-term supply-demand balance and drive non-ferrous metal prices higher [4]. Group 5: Black and Energy Chemical Sectors - The black metal sector is expected to present limited investment opportunities in 2026, with a tendency towards oscillation due to significant supply elasticity in the industrial chain [5]. - The energy chemical sector offers opportunities primarily in the stock market, with a focus on left-side interventions as capacity cycles peak. The polyester industry is noted for its relatively better fundamentals [5]. Group 6: Geopolitical Factors - Despite an overall optimistic outlook for the commodity market in 2026, a single upward trend is unlikely. Geopolitical disturbances are identified as a key factor influencing market rhythm, with a pattern of "seasonal price increases and actual declines" expected to continue [6][7]. - Geopolitical conflicts may create short-term panic, leading to indiscriminate declines in asset valuations, but these are not expected to evolve into systemic risks. Investors are encouraged to seek out undervalued assets during these periods [7].

【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 财 报 本 身 已 成 " 前 菜 " ， 指 引 才 是 定 价 核 心 2026 年 2 月 25 日，美股盘后，全球科技界的目光将再次聚焦于硅谷圣克拉拉。英伟达（Nvidia） 将公布最新一个财季的业绩报告。从表面数字看，市场的预期已经不低：华尔街一致预期营收约 656 亿美元，同比增长依然维持在令人咋舌的高位。然而，在这一季财报夜，真正的悬念并不在于"能不 能 beat"，而在于——英伟达是否还能继续给出一个足够大的未来。 在过去三年里，英伟达的每一次财报都曾是引爆市场的烟花。但进入 2026 年，随着市值体量的膨胀 和 AI 产业进入深水区，投资者的心理阈值正在发生微妙变化。单纯的业绩超预期已难以带来显著的 股价弹性，市场开始从"惊喜驱动"转向"确定性驱动"。花旗集团的前瞻判断，为这种市场情绪提供了 精准注脚。分析师 Atif Malik 预计，英伟达当季营收可达 670 亿美元，并将 4 月财季指引推高至 730 亿美元之上。这些数字本身已属强劲，但更重要的是，它们指向同一个方向： 增长并未见顶， 只是在换挡。 对于持有英伟达的机构而言，这份财报不再仅仅是关于过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets exhibited a stable performance during the Spring Festival holiday, setting a favorable external environment for the A-share market's reopening, with key drivers including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a recovery in industrial metal demand [3][6][13]. Equity Markets - The A-share market experienced a slight decline before the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4082.07 points, down 1.26%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.28% [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market was the only major Asian market open during the holiday, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.52% to 26705.94 points, driven by sectors such as semiconductors and AI applications [5]. - The U.S. stock market remained stable, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.10% and the S&P 500 maintaining a strong position, supported by robust corporate earnings and expectations of interest rate cuts [5][14]. Debt Market and Currency - The U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 3.85%, reflecting an 80% probability of a rate cut by June, driven by easing inflation data [6][13]. - The exchange rate remained stable, with the USD/CNY rate at 6.9225, supported by the People's Bank of China's liquidity measures and narrowing interest rate differentials [6]. Commodity Market - Industrial metals showed strong performance, with copper prices rising by 1.4% to $13,176 per ton, benefiting from global demand recovery and expectations of liquidity easing [7]. - Oil prices remained stable, with WTI crude oil slightly increasing to $62.89 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [7]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a bullish trend post-holiday, with historical data indicating a 76% probability of an increase in the first five trading days after the Spring Festival [9]. - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to undergo a structural rebound, with a 60% probability of an increase in the month following the holiday, driven by external sentiment and capital inflows [11]. - The U.S. market is projected to continue its strong performance, particularly in technology sectors, supported by favorable interest rate expectations and solid corporate earnings [14].

Core Viewpoint - Transsion Holdings, known as the "King of Africa," is facing significant challenges as it anticipates a more than 50% decline in net profit due to rising raw material costs and intensified competition from domestic smartphone manufacturers entering the African market [5][18]. Group 1: Market Position and Performance - According to IDC, Transsion Holdings holds a 12.5% share of the global smartphone market, ranking third behind Samsung and Apple, and a 7.9% share in the global smartphone brand market, ranking sixth [2]. - In the African market, Transsion leads with the highest market share in the smartphone segment [2]. - The company's net profit is projected to decline significantly, with a 44.97% drop reported in Q3 2025 and a 57.48% decline in the first half of 2025 [10][11]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Performance - The primary reason for the decline in Transsion's performance is the rising costs of core materials driven by the AI industry's rapid growth, which has increased the prices of essential components like DRAM and NAND Flash [8][11]. - The average selling price of Transsion's feature phones is around 50 yuan, while entry-level smartphones average between 300 to 500 yuan, making it difficult to pass on rising costs to consumers [11]. - The proportion of storage chips in Transsion's material costs has increased from 22% in 2024 to 27% in 2025, with projections indicating it could reach 34% by the end of 2026 [11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Domestic competitors such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and Honor are increasingly targeting the African market, leading to a decline in Transsion's market share, which has dropped to 51% as of September 2025 [12][15]. - Xiaomi's sales in Africa grew by 32% in Q1 2025, while Transsion experienced a 5% decline in the same period [15]. - Competitors are adopting similar technologies that were once unique to Transsion, eroding its competitive advantage [17]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Transsion has submitted an application for an H-share IPO to raise $1 billion, with funds allocated for AI technology development, market promotion, IoT business expansion, and operational liquidity [21][22]. - The company aims to enhance its product competitiveness through AI applications and improve brand recognition in emerging markets [22]. - Transsion is also increasing its sales and R&D expenditures to maintain its market position amid rising competition and costs [17].

专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 编者按：辞旧迎新，金马贺岁。值此新春佳节，新浪财经特邀公私募领域数十位领军人物，通过镜头与 文字，为投资者送来马年新春祝福。信心如磐，笃行致远。愿这一声声真挚寄语，伴您策马扬鞭，共赴 投资长路。 财通基金副总经理、权益投资总监金梓才送来新春祝福。他表示，展望2026年，我们对A股市场保持乐 观。随着宏观政策协同发力，经济内生动力预计增强。当前市场正处于为新阶段蓄力的过程中，我们期 待稳增长政策的进一步落地，推动市场信心持续修复。在这一大背景下，具备高景气、高壁垒与长期成 长空间的行业，将继续成为我们配置的重点。 行业方面，我们依然高度看好AI产业的长期趋势。当前AI板块估值仍处合理区间，其供应链呈现"缩 圈"特征，海外客户对品质与稳定性的要求高、技术迭代快，构建了坚实的行业壁垒。随着AI应用在海 外持续落地，算力需求呈现指数级增长，从训练到推理、从文本到视频，算力基础设施的长期空间依然 广阔。此外，企业出海能力的强弱日益影响其业绩弹性，那些能够融入全球产业链、尤其是海外算力链 的公司，有望持续获得成长动能。祝愿大家马到成功，马年大吉！ 祝福全文如 ...

证券日报网讯2月13日，澜起科技在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，DRAM内存模组(如RDIMM和 MRDIMM)属于服务器主内存，与HBM的应用场景不同，分别有相对独立的市场空间，二者都将受益于 AI产业的发展，并非竞争或替代关系。公司经营情况正常。 ...

Group 1 - Japan's stock market has experienced a remarkable start to 2026, driven by Prime Minister Kishi's economic growth policies, with sectors like chips and defense leading the gains in developed markets [1] - The top three performing stocks in the MSCI global index this year are Japanese companies, with Kioxia Holdings leading at nearly 120% increase, followed by Kawasaki Heavy Industries and JX Advanced Metals, both exceeding 60% [1] - Following the historic election victory of Kishi's Liberal Democratic Party, the Tokyo Stock Exchange index and Nikkei 225 both reached all-time highs, with the Nikkei index rising over 5% post-election, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1.4% decline during the same period [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has upgraded the rating of the Japanese stock market to overweight, anticipating benefits for sectors such as defense, key resources, shipbuilding, and energy due to a period of political stability [4] - Kawasaki Heavy Industries, a major stock in the MSCI index, surged 20% last week, benefiting from better-than-expected earnings and expectations that Kishi will relax constitutional restrictions on military capabilities [4] - Kioxia, which has already led the index in 2025, saw a 15% increase after raising its annual earnings forecast, driven by surging demand for storage chips in the AI industry, with its cumulative increase over the past 12 months exceeding 10 times [4] Group 3 - There are emerging concerns regarding the sustainability of the recent surge in Japan's stock market, with warnings that the positive news has largely been priced in and risks are accumulating [5] - The market's tolerance for underperformance is narrowing, and technical indicators suggest that the Nikkei 225 is currently in an overbought territory [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: 新锐股份 (Xinrui Co., Ltd.) - **Acquisition Target**: 慧联电子 (Huilian Electronics) - **Industry**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) Tooling Industry Key Points and Arguments - 新锐股份 plans to acquire 70% of 慧联电子 for no more than 700 million yuan, using self-owned funds and acquisition loans [1] - 慧联电子 is recognized as a national-level "little giant" in the specialized and innovative sector of PCB tooling, ranking as the fifth largest PCB tooling company according to the 2024 CPCA announcement [1] - The acquisition will include 慧联's integrated solutions for PCB rods, coatings, drilling needles, and equipment [1] - 慧联 produces 200 million PCB tools annually and has self-manufacturing capabilities for rods, with leading technology in milling tools and the highest global production and sales [2] - The product range includes ultra-fine micro drills and milling cutters, with proprietary control over upstream technologies such as PCB tool rods, PVD, TAC, and diamond coatings [2] - The 0.15mm milling cutter is at an internationally leading level, and PVD-coated milling cutters have a lifespan exceeding competitors by over 25% [2] - In the past 25 years, 慧联 has generated revenue of 330 million yuan and a net profit of 40 million yuan [2] - The demand for PCB drilling needles is stringent, with global supply qualifications being rare and difficult to obtain [2] - 慧联 has successfully supplied major PCB manufacturers such as 勝宏科技 (Shenghong Technology), 深南电路 (Shennan Circuit), and others [2] - The AI industry boom is expected to significantly impact the drilling needle market, with projections indicating that the AI server-specific drilling needle market could exceed 15 billion yuan by 2027 [2] - The price of high-length-to-diameter ratio and high-wear-resistant drilling needles is anticipated to increase by 15-20 times [2] - The collaboration between 新锐 and 慧联 is expected to create synergies, leading to a combined value greater than the sum of their parts [2] - 新锐 aims to become the largest and most comprehensive tool manufacturer in China [2] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - 新锐 has already established a presence in various tool categories, including rock drilling tools, CNC blades, integral tools, and gear tools, which will complement the acquisition of 慧联 [3] - The acquisition is expected to rapidly fill the gap in the specialized PCB tooling segment for 新锐, leveraging its strong technical foundation and industry position to empower 慧联 [3]

Group 1 - Over 150 funds have announced a suspension of related business during the Spring Festival, with most products pausing from February 12 and resuming on February 24 [1] - Many public fund institutions are optimistic about holding stocks during the holiday, citing historical data, policy environment, and capital flow as supporting factors for a higher success rate [2] - Increasing interest in inquiry transfer among fund companies, with 12 listed companies having conducted inquiry transfers since 2026, involving several prominent public fund institutions [3] Group 2 - Fund manager Chen Junjie from Harvest Fund emphasizes that the core logic of technology investment remains unchanged, focusing on three dimensions: cost reduction in models, integration of edge AI with existing hardware, and breakthroughs in domestic computing power supply chains [4] - The three major indices collectively rose, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index both increasing by over 1%, driven by a surge in the computing power industry chain [5] - ETFs related to Brazil and French markets saw significant gains, with Brazil ETF rising over 6% and French and Sci-Tech chip design ETFs increasing by over 4% [6] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes plans for the State Grid to establish a new type of grid platform, which is expected to support the development of virtual power plants and microgrids, enhancing the potential for energy trading and comprehensive energy services [9]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】1 月通胀数据点评 PPI 同比转正时点或提前 主要观点 ❖ 1 月份通胀数据述评：整体趋势继续改善 PPI 环比上涨 0.4%，连续四个月上涨。环比来看，全国统一大市场建设带动 部分行业价格上涨（水泥、锂电池、光伏设备和元器件、基础化学原料、黑色 冶炼加工），AI 和节前备货需求增长带动相关行业价格上涨（计算机电子、工 业美术用品、农副食品加工），输入性因素影响国内石油相关行业价格下降、 有色相关行业价格上涨。 本月是基期轮换后的首次数据发布。基期轮换后，调查分类目录、调查网点和 代表规格品、权数等均有小幅变动。但根据统计局的测算，本次基期轮换对 CPI 和 PPI 各月同比指数的影响平均约为 0.06 和 0.08 个百分点，总体较小。 ❖ PPI 同比转正时点或提前 PPI 同比在今年三季度转正的概率较大，主要考虑以下三个因素： 第一，中游供需持续改善带来的价格止跌企稳的时点或已提前。在前期报告 中，我们基于 2015-2016 年、2019-2020 年的经验，即从中游装备制造业的供 给增速首次低于需求增速到价格环比止跌回升，大约历时 6-7 个季度。据此 ...