智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，巨星传奇(06683)致力于将IP情感价值融入多元化的实体场景 与创新产品中，为用户打造可触达、可感知的幸福体验。正通过一系列战略布局，从传统的"IP创造与 运营商"跃迁为"幸福感的传播者"，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 风险提示：IP依赖度过高风险；市场竞争加剧风险；行业监管政策变动风险。 IP为核，消费产品变现，全渠道运营，该行预计公司2025-2027年营业总收入分别为7.95/11.13/15.53亿 元，同比增速分别为36.2%/40.0%/39.5%，当前股价对应（2025/12/24）的PE分别为58/41/31倍，公司正 通过一系列战略布局，从传统的"IP创造与运营商"跃迁为"幸福感的传播者"，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评 级。 华源证券主要观点如下： 第一站，快速成长的巨星传奇，基于时间的能力修炼 1）周同学IP的塑造："周同学"IP以周杰伦为原型设计为二次元风格化身，由公司与杰威尔音乐共同开 发。公司通过制作《周游记》系列真人秀节目扩大IP影响力，目前公司在快手平台创立"周同学"官方账 号的粉丝数量超过4800万。2）刘畊宏的塑造：2021年，公司孵化刘 ...

证券研究报告 传媒 | 广告营销 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 24 日 投资评级： 增持（首次） 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 联系人 魏桢 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 24 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | | 6.00 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 17.64/3.37 | | | | 元） | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | | 5,710.43 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | | 5,710.43 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 23.32 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | 巨星传奇(06683.HK) ——下一站，巨星 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 weizhen@huayuanstock. ...

作者丨 李墨天 图源丨泡泡玛特 以下文章来源于远川研究所 ，作者李墨天 远川研究所 . 刻画这个时代 来源丨 远川研究所 （ YuanChuanInstitution ） 今年8月泡泡玛特发财报，半年时间赚了去年一整年的钱，创始人王宁喜不自胜 [1] ： 本来希望能做 到200亿，但感觉今年应该300亿也很轻松。 资本市场最喜欢干的就是打脸。半年报发完，泡泡玛特市值突破4500亿历史新高，接着急转直下。 期间泡泡玛特的关键变化是激进扩产，大幅解决了缺货问题。但"稀缺性丧失"，成为大部分看空方的 核心依据。 德意志银行在12月的研报中提出：泡泡玛特依靠高密度的交易量维持门店效率，但一些海外门店已经 没人排队了。同时，公司主动释放产能，会降低Labubu的稀缺属性，让消费者失去新鲜感，门店交 此后4个月，公司股价回撤44%，市值蒸发了2000亿。 易额无法维持。 另一家研究机构伯恩斯坦用两份合计近130页的研报重拳出击 [3] ，将泡泡玛特定性为 "投机型 IP " ，和Hello Kitty、芭比娃娃这些真正的 "常青IP" 有本质区别。只要社交媒体的热度过去，就没人买 了。 正所谓竞技体育菜是原罪，二级市场跌 ...

情绪价值也是生产力。 文 ｜ 李墨天 编辑 ｜ 张婕妤 来源｜ 远川研究所（ID：YuanChuanInstitution） 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash 今年8月泡泡玛特发财报，半年时间赚了去年一整年的钱，创始人王宁喜不自胜 [1] ： 本来希望能做到200亿，但感觉今年应该300亿也很轻松。 资本市场最喜欢干的就是打脸。半年报发完，泡泡玛特市值突破4500亿历史新高，接着急转直下。此后4个月，公司股价回撤44%，市值蒸发了2000亿。 以下文章来源于远川研究所 ，作者李墨天 远川研究所 . 刻画这个时代 期间泡泡玛特的关键变化是激进扩产，大幅解决了缺货问题。但"稀缺性丧失"，成为大部分看空方的核心依据。 德意志银行在12月的研报中提出：泡泡玛特依靠高密度的交易量维持门店效率，但一些海外门店已经没人排队了。同时，公司主动释放产能，会降低 Labubu的稀缺属性，让消费者失去新鲜感，门店交易额无法维持。 另一家研究机构伯恩斯坦用两份合计近130页的研报重拳出击 [3] ，将泡泡玛特定性为 "投机型 IP " ，和Hello Kitty、芭比娃娃这些真正的 "常青IP" 有本 质区别。只要社交媒体的热度过去， ...

今年8月泡泡玛特发财报，半年时间赚了去年一整年的钱，创始人王宁喜不自胜[1]： 本来希望能做到200亿，但感觉今年应该300亿也很轻松。 资本市场最喜欢干的就是打脸。半年报发完，泡泡玛特市值突破4500亿历史新高，接着急转直下。此后4个月，公司股价回撤44%，市值蒸发了2000亿。 期间泡泡玛特的关键变化是激进扩产，大幅解决了缺货问题。但"稀缺性丧失"，成为大部分看空方的核心依据。 德意志银行在12月的研报中提出：泡泡玛特依靠高密度的交易量维持门店效率，但一些海外门店已经没人排队了。同时，公司主动释放产能，会降低Labubu 的稀缺属性，让消费者失去新鲜感，门店交易额无法维持。 另一家研究机构伯恩斯坦用两份合计近130页的研报重拳出击[3]，将泡泡玛特定性为 "投机型 IP " ，和Hello Kitty、芭比娃娃这些真正的 "常青IP" 有本质区 别。只要社交媒体的热度过去，就没人买了。 正所谓竞技体育菜是原罪，二级市场跌是原罪。涨的时候什么都是对的，跌的时候对的也会变成错的。 4500亿的泡泡玛特是新消费神话，2500亿的泡泡玛特是泡沫崩盘，从情绪价值的图腾到破塑料玩具，泡泡玛特到底出了什么问题？ 不存在 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Pop Mart (9992.HK) has seen a significant stock price increase, surpassing 4% to reach 200 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 269.66 billion HKD [1] - The Crybaby exhibition in Shanghai is scheduled from December 20, 2025, to January 25, 2026, at the West Bund Dream Center, which is expected to attract a diverse audience and enhance brand visibility [1] - The exhibition will feature large-scale art installations and limited edition products that require online purchase for in-store pickup, providing new revenue streams beyond product sales [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the exhibition could lead to increased social media engagement, enhancing brand presence and extending the IP lifecycle through diverse operational strategies [1] - Morgan Stanley's recent report indicates that the appointment of Wu Yue to Pop Mart's board reflects the company's successful resource acquisition for new business development and recognition of its IP in fashion and entertainment [1] - This recognition boosts confidence in Pop Mart's ability to deploy impactful marketing and product resources [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards Pop Mart has become pessimistic, with its stock price dropping over 40% from its peak of 340 HKD per share in 2025 to around 190 HKD currently [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Consumer Behavior - Many overseas investors are losing faith in Pop Mart, with analysts expressing concerns about the high concentration of IPs and declining secondary market prices [2]. - The loyalty of core consumers is perceived to be low, with growth primarily driven by novelty rather than brand loyalty [2]. - New consumers are frustrated by the difficulty in purchasing desired IPs, leading to a decline in store visits and overall shopping experience [3][4]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Product Availability - Pop Mart's management has indicated a significant increase in plush toy production, yet they are still struggling to meet demand [7]. - The current product offerings in stores are primarily blind boxes, limiting the availability of popular IPs like Labubu [8]. - The company is exploring a "saturation" strategy by introducing more diverse product lines and themed collections to attract a wider audience [17][19]. Group 3: Store Experience and Consumer Engagement - Pop Mart has over 550 direct stores and 2,500 robot stores, focusing on flagship locations to enhance consumer experience [23]. - The company aims to create a rich storytelling environment in stores, enhancing the appeal of their products through effective display and design [29][30]. - The introduction of various themed collections allows consumers to access multiple IPs, potentially increasing engagement and reducing the impact of scalpers [19].

Core Insights - The report by Guotai Junan highlights the advantages of IP fun food over IP toys, including lower price points and higher consumption frequency [1][2] Industry Growth - The Chinese IP food market is projected to grow from 18.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 35.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 18.2% [3] - The market for IP fun food is expected to increase from 5.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 11.5 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 19.6% [3] Consumer Demand - The growth in the IP fun food sector is driven by the emotional consumption trends among the younger generation, who seek identity recognition and emotional connection through IP stories and characters [3] - The supply side benefits from China's mature snack production and supply chain, which has been bolstered by the rise of bulk purchasing channels [3] Competitive Landscape - The core competitive advantage in the IP fun food industry lies in supply chain management and IP operation [4] - The differentiation of IP fun food products is primarily achieved through the inclusion of IP toy giveaways, which allow for higher pricing despite the low differentiation of the snacks themselves [4] - The market remains fragmented, with the leading company, Jintian Animation, holding a market share of 7.6% as of 2024 [5]

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategic Goals - CITIC Publishing aims to enhance communication with investors and update them on its digital transformation and new product launches [2][3] - The company plans to focus on AI application, commercialization, and IP operation over the next five years [3][4] Group 2: Digital Transformation and AI Integration - The "KuaFu AI" platform has been developed to cover the entire publishing process, with 122 AI assistant applications across 17 publishing scenarios [3] - 70% of the work for topic reports can now be handled by AI, with 1,600 reports expected to be generated this year [3] - The error detection rate in translation has improved by 15 percentage points, with the platform supporting over 2,500 translations annually [3] Group 3: IP Operation and Market Growth - Since launching its animation and cultural strategy, the company has seen over 25% growth in its film, game, and animation book categories, achieving the highest market share [4][5] - The company has established partnerships with leading content organizations, including iQIYI and Tencent Animation, to develop derivative books from popular IPs [4][5] - Expected revenue from IP operations (excluding books) is projected to be nearly CNY 50 million this year [5] Group 4: AI Content Tools and Innovations - The upgraded "KuaFu AI 3.0" includes a translation tool that reduces costs to 4.4% of traditional methods and completes tasks in 4 hours that would take a month [5][6] - The "Booktalks" product allows deep interaction with book content, transforming traditional sales into subscription-based services [6] Group 5: Future Opportunities and Market Position - The company identifies three major opportunities: cultural power construction, AI technology transformation, and the implementation of national reading policies [10] - CITIC Publishing aims to transition from a traditional book publisher to a comprehensive knowledge service provider, leveraging its strong brand and market position [10]

Core Insights - Bubble Mart has significantly increased its market share from 8.5% to 14% over five years, while its market value has surpassed HKD 250 billion, indicating a strong competitive position in the collectible toy industry [1] - The company has built a robust ecosystem that attracts users, creators, and market attention through its platform model, which focuses on artist discovery, IP incubation, and omnichannel operations [1][8] - The current landscape of the collectible toy industry shows that competitors like TOP TOY and 52TOYS struggle with IP dependency and lack core competitive advantages, leading to a challenging environment for smaller brands [1][8] Market Position - Bubble Mart's CEO Wang Ning has projected that the company can easily achieve revenue of RMB 30 billion by 2025, highlighting its dominant market position with few real competitors [2] - The company has shifted the focus from artist value to operational efficiency, which has allowed it to capitalize on market trends and consumer demand [4][8] - The average inventory turnover for Bubble Mart is 83 days, significantly better than the industry average of 180 days, reinforcing its operational efficiency [9] IP Strategy - Bubble Mart's IP operation capabilities have been enhanced, allowing it to create a standardized pipeline for artist signing, user research, and supply chain response, which can turn creative ideas into potential bestsellers in as little as six months [8][9] - The company has secured 14 out of 32 hot-selling collectible toy IPs for 2024, representing a 43% market share in that segment [9] - Bubble Mart's approach to IP management resembles that of a talent agency, focusing on nurturing top-tier IPs while also identifying emerging artists early [8][11] Industry Trends - The collectible toy market in China is increasingly defined by marketing-driven strategies that prioritize consumer engagement over artistic integrity, contrasting with more established markets like Japan, where cultural depth and storytelling are key [12][14] - Smaller brands in the Chinese market face significant challenges in competing with Bubble Mart's scale and efficiency, leading to a trend of reliance on short-term marketing tactics [11][12] - The potential for new entrants exists, but they must navigate a landscape where replicating Bubble Mart's success is nearly impossible due to high barriers to entry and established market dominance [14]