智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，维持阿里巴巴-W(09988)盈利预测，维持买入评级。预计阿 里巴巴集团整体FY2026-FY2028收入分别为10386/11434/12506亿元，调整后归母净利润分别为 1019/1455/1836亿元。SOTP估值法下，集团整体目标估值34124亿人民币，对应目标价203美元/ADS， 对应上行空间34%，对应港股目标价197港币/股，对应上行空间34%。 风险提示：宏观影响企业上云需求，国内AI产业进展不及预期，国内云厂竞争加剧。 火山引擎聚焦MaaS层(模型能力+低价)，但阿里云在全栈解决方案、生态完整性上的优势难以短期复 制。当前MaaS市场规模尚小，阿里云在更广阔的AIIaaS及整体云市场的领军地位稳固，其增长逻辑在 于承接企业整体智能化转型需求，而不仅是提供单一模型调用。 AI增量一：AI芯片国产化，平头哥开启对外销售 国产化算力需求放量的背景下，其产品性能已对标国际主流水平，并成功中标大型智算中心项目。不仅 是阿里云提供差异化算力服务、提升利润率的关键，更是其输出全栈AI解决方案、绑定客户的核心抓 手。国产芯片上市潮来临，有助于互联网云厂自研芯片价值 ...

Core Insights - The global enterprise MaaS market is rapidly growing, with OpenAI and Google Cloud leading in daily token usage, followed by China's Volcano Engine [1][4] - The latest data shows that the daily token usage of Volcano Engine's Doubao model has exceeded 50 trillion, marking a 66.7% increase from October and over tenfold growth year-on-year [4] - The introduction of multimodal models like GPT-5.2, Gemini 3.0, and Doubao 1.8 is expanding application scenarios and enhancing user experience [4][5] Market Position - As of October 2025, OpenAI and Google Cloud are projected to have daily token usage of approximately 70 trillion and 43 trillion, respectively, while Volcano Engine holds a 15% market share with over 30 trillion tokens [1] - Together, these three companies account for 65% of the global MaaS market [1] Growth Drivers - The MaaS services are noted as the fastest-growing and highest-margin AI cloud computing products [4] - Continuous innovation in model structure and hardware optimization is leading to high cost-performance ratios and superior margins compared to traditional IaaS products [4] - The emergence of image and video creation models, such as Nano Banano and Doubao Seedream 4.0, is lowering production barriers and expanding accessibility [5] Future Outlook - Omdia forecasts that the growth rate of the global MaaS market will further accelerate in 2026 as model vendors and cloud providers enhance AI cloud infrastructure [5]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3920 | 0.07 | 2.22 | 2.49 | | 深证综指 | 2492 | -0.02 | 5.14 | 3.08 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.23 | 3.72 | 20.28 | | 中盘指数 | -0.1 | 6.55 | 28.78 | | 小盘指数 | -0.02 | 5.03 | 23.85 | | 涨幅居前 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业(％) | | | | | 玻璃玻纤 | 3.14 | 13.79 | 52.44 | | 电池 | 2.43 | 2.74 | 56.23 | | 贵金属 | 2.2 | 14.11 | 36.42 | | 非金属材料 | 1.87 | 5.76 | 19.31 ...

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 李国盛 A0230521080003 ligs@swsresearch.com 郝知雨 A0230525060002 haozy@swsresearch.com 陈晴华 A0230525100001 chenqh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 姜安然 A0230125070008 jiangar@swsresearch.com 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 2 ...

AIPress.com.cn报道 12月19日与12月21日，北京智谱华章科技股份有限公司（智谱）和上海稀宇科技有限公司（MiniMax）相继披露港股招股书。 两份合计近千页的文件，第一次以如此高的透明度，向外界展示了中国大模型公司的真实账本，也将一个长期悬而未决的问题摆在投资者面 前： 大模型，究竟该如何赚钱？ MiniMax和智谱，给出了两种几乎相反的解法。 | 盈利模式 | MiniMax | 智谱 | | --- | --- | --- | | 付费订阅 | V | 部分(API 服务) | | API 调用付费 | V | 正在推进 | | 企业合同定制 | V | √ (核心) | | 本地化部署 | √ (ToB) | √ (ToB/ToG 核心) | | 全球市场 | 5 | 市场营营 | 商业路线 MiniMax的商业逻辑，几乎完全围绕C端展开。公司在招股书中反复强调"AI Native App"的概念，其核心产品Talkie（海外）和星野（国 内），本质上都是以大模型为底座的超级应用。 与早期"先有模型、再找场景"的公司不同，MiniMax是从一开始就围绕用户体验和产品形态来反推模型能力。 ...

智谱带来 AI 市场估值新叙事。 文 丨 江思远 243.77 亿元，17 日通过港交所聆讯的智谱在网上公开的招股书中确认了它自己的最新估值，这也是第 一次，人们确切知道中国大模型公司的估值金额。 这是一个恰切的时间点，ChatGPT 在业界投下的震撼弹已经过去三年，经历了百模大战的喧嚣，留在 牌桌上的中国大模型选手，在证明了自己创新与技术能力不逊色于任何人之后，开始向资本市场发起 冲刺。 在 "少年走向成年" 的关键转型期，市场期待大模型公司如何向所有人论证，"新奇类、炫技型" 的模 型技术向 "实际类、适配型" 的大模型端到端落地的过程。 作为百团大战中第一家成功 "上岸" 的公司，智谱给出的回答不那么让人满意。招股书披露的亏损规模 远大于收入增长，而研发费用还在大幅增加，似乎没有要停止 "烧钱" 的趋势。 如果是一个成熟公司，这样的资产负债表实在让人难以满意，但大模型是特殊的。 智谱是中国成立最早的独立大模型公司之一，但它也只有不到 6 年历史，AI 行业让无数人兴奋的原因 是它在潜在未来的革命性，而这很难从过往的历史中直接推导出来，因为变革往往在某个时刻突然以 指数级形式发生。 这是智谱的赌注，或者可 ...

文 | AIX财经（AIXcaijing），作者 | 金玙璠，编辑 | 魏佳 一纸招股书，揭开了"中国版OpenAI"智谱AI的神秘面纱，也把一个备受关注的话题抛到台前：在中国 大模型的牌局中，智谱AI究竟排第几？ 12月19日，这家顶着"清华系"光环的明星公司在通过港交所聆讯后，披露了招股书，向"全球大模型第 一股"发起最后冲刺。 一时间，所有人的目光都聚焦在这家成立仅6年的年轻公司身上，最受关注的，除了它豪华的股东阵容 （美团、阿里、腾讯、小米）和超过240亿元的估值，还有一张颇具话题性的中国大模型厂商"座次 图"。 排名背后，另一组数字同样醒目。2024年，智谱AI经调整净亏损达24.7亿元。2025年上半年亏损仍在加 剧，营收1.9亿元对应经调整净亏损17.5亿元。 高速扩张与持续亏损并行，几乎是当前大模型公司的共同特征，也折射出这一行业高研发、长周期的普 遍挑战。 因此，要看清智谱AI的真实位置，我们或许不能只依赖一份报告中的单一维度排名，而需要回到三个 更本质的问题：智谱AI究竟是怎样一家公司？它的财务状况说明了什么？以及，牌桌之上真实的战局 究竟如何？ 智谱AI，是一家怎样的公司？ 要理解智谱A ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of Zhipu's IPO as it aims to become the first global large model stock, providing a valuation benchmark for the underrepresented large model industry in the public market, and marking a shift from a "technical race" to "capital validation" for China's AI sector [3]. Financial Performance - Zhipu's revenue is projected to grow rapidly from 57.4 million yuan in 2022 to 312.4 million yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 130% [4]. - The gross margin for Zhipu is expected to be 54.6% in 2022, 64.6% in 2023, and 56.3% in 2024, with a gross margin of 50% in the first half of 2025 [4]. - Despite significant revenue growth, Zhipu has recorded losses of 144 million yuan in 2022, 788 million yuan in 2023, and 2.958 billion yuan in 2024, with a loss of 2.358 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [5]. Research and Development - Zhipu has invested heavily in R&D, with expenditures increasing from 84.4 million yuan in 2022 to 2.195 billion yuan in 2024, totaling over 4.4 billion yuan [5]. - The company has achieved a breakthrough in domestic GLM architecture, compatible with over 40 domestic chips, and has developed a comprehensive product matrix covering various AI applications [5]. Market Position and Competition - Zhipu ranks first among independent general-purpose large model developers in China and second among all general-purpose large model developers, with a market share of 6.6% as of 2024 [4]. - The company has raised over 8.3 billion yuan in funding since its establishment in 2019, with notable investors including Meituan, Tencent, and Xiaomi [6]. Business Model and Revenue Streams - Zhipu's revenue primarily comes from localized deployment of large models, contributing 84.5% of total revenue by 2024, while cloud revenue accounts for 15.5% [7]. - The company is shifting its focus towards cloud deployment and MaaS (Model as a Service) to enhance scalability and profitability [8][9]. - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) from its model services for global developers has surpassed 100 million yuan, indicating a strategic shift towards increasing the revenue share from API services [11]. Strategic Direction - Zhipu aims to strengthen its core business of localized deployment while increasing the revenue share from its MaaS platform, which has shown exponential growth [10]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its cloud services and reducing reliance on private deployments, as evidenced by the increasing share of cloud business revenue [12]. - Zhipu's daily token consumption has surged from 500 million in 2022 to 4.6 trillion in the first half of 2025, highlighting its ambition to become a scalable cloud-based model platform [13].

Core Viewpoint - Zhiyu is on the verge of entering the capital market, aiming to become the world's first publicly listed large model company, which will provide a reference for valuation in the long-lacking public market of the large model industry [2] Company Overview - Zhiyu has accumulated over 4.4 billion yuan in R&D investment and is experiencing rapid revenue growth, with projected revenues of 57.4 million yuan, 124.5 million yuan, and 312.4 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 130% [3] - The company has not yet achieved profitability, recording losses of 144 million yuan, 788 million yuan, and 2.958 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a loss of 2.358 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3] Market Position - According to a report by Frost & Sullivan, Zhiyu ranks first among independent general large model developers in China and second among all general large model developers, with a market share of 6.6% as of 2024 [3] - As of September 30, 2025, Zhiyu's models have reached 12,000 enterprise clients, over 80 million terminal user devices, and more than 45 million developers [8] Business Model - The core revenue source for Zhiyu comes from localized deployment of large models, contributing 84.5% of revenue as of 2024, while cloud revenue accounts for 15.5% [8] - The company is shifting its focus towards cloud deployment and the MaaS (Model as a Service) model to enhance its scalability and demonstrate its business model's profitability and long-term growth potential [8][9] Strategic Direction - Zhiyu's MaaS platform is experiencing exponential growth, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) from its global developer model service exceeding 100 million yuan (approximately 14 million USD) [9] - The company aims to increase the revenue share from API services to 50% and is actively working on enhancing its cloud-based offerings [9] Competitive Landscape - The company has established a strong presence in the technology internet and enterprise service markets, with nine of the top ten internet companies in China utilizing Zhiyu's GLM large models [11] - The average daily token consumption has surged from 500 million in 2022 to 4.6 trillion in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift towards a scalable cloud-based model [12] International Expansion - Zhiyu's localized deployment services have begun generating revenue from overseas clients, particularly in Southeast Asia, with the revenue share from this region increasing from 0.5% in 2024 to 11.1% in the first half of 2025 [12]

题图｜视觉中国 2025年12月19日。 这是ChatGPT问世三年的时间点，也是国内"百模大战"基本分出胜负一年之后。 就在12月19日夜晚，港交所官网更新了一份招股书——中国大模型公司智谱 AI，正式走到资本市场 门口。 那么，这是否意味着，全球大模型第一股，要来了？ 从招股书披露的数据来看，智谱的增长曲线颇为陡峭。自2022年以来，其收入连续三年增长：2022 年为5740万元人民币，2023年增长至1.245亿元，2024 年进一步扩大至 3.124亿元，三年收入复合年 增长率达到130%。 根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，以2024年的收入计，智谱是中国最大的独立大模型厂 商。 从当前的收入结构来看，这家大模型公司的商业模式依然偏"传统"，即主要面向B端大客户。其主要 收入来源分为两部分：一是本地化部署 （私有化部署） ，覆盖ToB与ToG客户；二是云端部署，即 通过MaaS平台进行的token调用服务。 在成立初期，智谱几乎完全依赖私有化部署。从2022年开始，该部分收入占比高达95.5%，主要客户 集中在G端客户及大型上市公司。 但在随后的两年半中，这一结构正在缓慢松动。截至2025年6 月 30 日， ...