Core Viewpoint - The rise of China presents significant opportunities for Southeast Asian countries, as emphasized by former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who advocates for deeper trade relations with China to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariffs and protectionism [1][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Relations - ASEAN countries are encouraged to enhance trade with China and India to compensate for losses in trade with the U.S. [1][3]. - The trade volume between ASEAN and China exceeded $982.34 billion in 2024, marking a 7.8% increase, with exports growing by 12.0% and imports by 2.0% [3]. - ASEAN's trade with Gulf countries has also strengthened, with the total trade amounting to over $900 billion, nearly double the $453 billion trade with the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Economic Perspectives - Mahathir believes that China's market size surpasses that of the combined U.S. and European markets, indicating continued economic growth potential for China [5]. - He asserts that the U.S. tariffs will harm the American economy more than others, leading to increased living costs in the U.S. [4]. - The historical context of Mahathir's policies, such as the "Look East" policy, reflects a long-term strategy of learning from advanced Asian economies to boost Malaysia's growth [3].

今日摘要 习近平会见白俄罗斯总统。 习近平向韩国当选总统李在明致贺电。 习近平总书记强调，中国将继续推动高质量发展，扩大高水平对外开放，同各国分享发展机遇，为地区 乃至世界经济带来更多稳定性和确定性。今年以来，我国依托超大规模市场优势，在扩大国际合作中提 升开放能力，不断拓展经济发展新空间，与世界共享发展机遇。 今年前四个月，国家高新区规上工业企业营收超10万亿元，创新驱动与产业集聚效应持续释放。 各地持续加力扩围"两新"政策，有力推动消费潜力加速释放。 我国城镇老旧小区改造加快推进，今年前四个月，全国新开工改造小区5679个。 乌克兰方面称，对克里米亚大桥实施了"水下袭击"；俄罗斯方面称，在克里米亚逮捕了一名涉嫌制作爆 炸装置的乌克兰特工。 美国将进口钢铝关税提高至50%的政策生效，美媒称多个行业将受影响。 内容速览 习近平会见白俄罗斯总统 6月4日上午，国家主席习近平在中南海会见白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科。 习近平向韩国当选总统李在明致贺电 6月4日，国家主席习近平致电李在明，祝贺他当选韩国总统。 【新思想引领新征程】高水平开放提速加力 与世界共享发展机遇 习近平总书记强调，中国将继续推动高质量发展，扩大高水平 ...

新华社纽约6月3日电（记者刘亚南）美国白宫3日发布公告，以应对所谓"国家安全威胁"和提高国内钢 铝产业竞争力为由，宣布从4日起将进口自除英国外所有贸易伙伴的钢铝产品关税从目前的25%上调至 50%。 鉴于5月上旬美英达成一项新的贸易协议，美国此次决定英国出口美国的钢铝产品将继续适用25%的税 率。 美国总统特朗普5月30日表示，将自6月4日起把美国进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的25%上调至50%。 欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔2日重申，欧盟对美方决定深表遗憾。这一决定为全球经济增加了更多不 确定性，提高了大西洋两岸消费者和企业的成本，也破坏了欧盟与美国达成谈判解决方案的努力。 德国工商总会外贸主管福尔克·特赖尔表示，美方这一决定是"对跨大西洋贸易关系的严重打击"。 美国彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员加里·赫夫鲍尔2日撰文说，特朗普第一任期对进口钢铁征收25% 关税，这些关税"每创造一个钢铁行业就业岗位，就导致下游行业年成本增加65万美元"。 2018年3月，时任美国总统特朗普以威胁美国国家安全为由，对多个国家和地区的钢铁和铝产品加征进 口关税，其中钢铁关税税率为25%，铝产品关税税率为10%。此后迫于国内产业遭冲 ...

Core Points - A U.S. federal court has blocked President Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority by imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries that export more to the U.S. than they import [1][3] - The court's 49-page ruling stated that only Congress has the power to regulate trade with other nations, thus prohibiting the Trump administration from executing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [3][4] - The White House has expressed strong opposition to the ruling, claiming that non-elected judges should not dictate responses to national emergencies and that the administration will use all executive powers to address the crisis [1][3] Tariff Policy Implications - The court has mandated that the U.S. government must issue new enforcement notices to all customs ports within 10 days to implement the ban on tariffs, and during this period, the Customs and Border Protection must cease collecting tariffs based on IEEPA [4] - If the Trump administration's request for a stay of the ruling is not approved, the ban will take effect after 10 days, potentially reducing tariffs on China to around 12% [4] - The ruling has rendered previous tariff orders ineffective immediately upon issuance, and the government must publish necessary administrative orders to enforce the permanent ban [4] Responses from China - China's Ministry of Commerce reiterated the U.S. court's ruling and criticized the unilateral tariff measures, stating they have not resolved U.S. issues but have instead harmed international trade order [6] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized that there are no winners in a trade war and that protectionism ultimately harms all parties involved [6] Future Strategies - Amid the legal challenges, Trump's trade team is reportedly considering a backup plan involving a two-step approach: first, imposing a maximum 15% tariff globally for 150 days to address trade imbalances, and second, developing personalized tariffs for each major trading partner during that period [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The OECD has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, indicating a weakening growth momentum and increasing risks in the global economy [1][10]. Group 1: Trade Barriers and Economic Policies - Trade barriers and economic policy uncertainty are identified as primary reasons for the global economic slowdown, with increased tariffs and trade restrictions disrupting supply chains and diminishing business and consumer confidence [3][4]. - The report highlights a notable slowdown in growth among North American economies, particularly the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, due to trade tensions impacting the largest economies [3][4]. - The U.S. inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 3.2% and 2.8%, respectively, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that could lead to continued tight monetary policies by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 2: Impact of Protectionism - The rise of protectionism and trade barriers is harming global supply chain efficiency, increasing business costs, and ultimately affecting consumer prices, leading to constrained economic vitality and reduced global trade and investment flows [4][6]. - The fragmentation of trade is undermining the stability of the multilateral trading system, with historical evidence suggesting that rising protectionism hampers economic growth and leads to a "zero-sum game" scenario [6][7]. Group 3: Call for Cooperation - OECD Chief Economist Pereira emphasizes the necessity for countries to engage in sincere negotiations to avoid further trade fragmentation, advocating for multilateral cooperation and trade liberalization as essential for sustainable global economic growth [9][10]. - The report warns that the ongoing trade barriers could exacerbate international tensions and complicate global political dynamics, highlighting the need for stable and rule-based economic development rather than short-term protective measures [7][10].

根据白宫发布的行政命令，美国对华关税增加125%，加上3月份就开始实施的20%所谓芬太尼问题施加的关税，美国累计对华关税已达145%，堪称疯狂。 中国方面早有准备，先祭出84%的关税反制，然后又宣布将"尊重观众选择"，拟减少美国电影的进口。此举可谓直掐美国命门，此举导致美国电影公司股票 暴跌。而今，中国又宣布了125%的关税反制措施。其实，此时中美之间已经没有贸易的可能性，此后再相互追加关税，已经毫无意义。 当时特朗普的逻辑是，外国的廉价产品大量充斥美国的市场，而美国的工人却得不到工作和收入的保障。正如他的口号"复兴制造业"一样，他要让美国自己 的制造业振兴起来，从而把其他国家的商品"赶出去"。 所以，他鼓励外国公司迁往美国，特朗普曾说过："我希望德国汽车公司成为美国汽车公司。我希望他们在这里建厂。"这样，他可以对外国进入本国的商品 征税，而对本土企业减免税务，不仅赚了外国的关税，还能提升本土制造业的产能。 （二）填补贸易逆差 美国为什么会有巨大的贸易逆差，其实，美国的经济是以第三产业（服务业）为主。因此，他在货物贸易（第一、第二产业方面）中肯定是有贸易逆差的， 而且，贸易逆差主要集中在中国、墨西哥、越南、德 ...

Group 1 - The recent U.S.-China trade discussions have seen both sides maintaining communication on economic concerns, particularly regarding U.S. export control measures in the semiconductor sector [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued a directive to halt supplies to Chinese clients from several EDA software companies, which are crucial for chip design, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1] - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs imposed through executive orders were overreaching, highlighting the ongoing legal and economic ramifications of the trade war [3] Group 2 - The upcoming G20 summit in November may serve as a critical juncture for U.S.-China relations, with potential discussions aimed at resolving trade issues [3] - There is a growing sentiment among U.S. business leaders that the current tariff policies are unpopular, with calls for a return to cooperative and mutually beneficial trade practices [5] - China's proactive diplomatic efforts with various global regions, including Latin America and the EU, suggest a strategic shift in response to U.S. trade policies, enhancing its international economic relationships [7]

韩国总统李在明：全球环境的快速变化，例如日益增长的保护主义，正对韩国构成风险。 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250603 复盘 200 年，贸易战何去何从？ 2025 年 06 月 03 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 通过复盘自 1800 年至今 200 余年的全球贸易历史，以及结合近期东部 沿海省份"造船厂-船东-船公司-货代及外贸公司-实体制造业"外贸产 业链调研反馈，我们的研究表明： 首先，复盘全球贸易历史看，汇率、非关税壁垒可能取代关税成为更加关 键的"贸易交锋"工具。 其次，国内多数外贸企业认为由于在根本矛盾上的冲突，中美贸易谈判过 程未来或将"一波三折"，企业可能需要持续控制对美出口风险敞口。 再次，如果加征关税无法实现美方贸易竞争的主要目的，那么参考过去 200 年全球贸易历史特别是 1970s-1990s 美日德贸易竞争阶段的美方举措，未 来美国政府可能在非关税壁垒、汇率等方面发起更多挑战。 最后，在控制对美出口风险敞口的过程中，拓展非美出口、"出口转内销"、 "出海"等关键手段仍待企业端摸索落地方式，年内外贸前景仍面临高度 不确定性。 ◼ 一、汇率、非关税壁垒可能取代关税成为更加关键的"贸易交锋"工具 自 18 世纪至今，"自由贸易 ...

据经合组织测算，今年5月中旬美国对进口商品的实际关税税率从2024年的略高于2%上调至15.4%。佩 雷拉表示，这对美国来说已达到"1938年以来最高水平，而如果以4月9日宣布的关税水平来看将是19世 纪90年代以来最高"。 新华财经巴黎6月3日电（记者李文昕）经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）3日发布经济展望报告，将 2025和2026年全球经济增速均下调至2.9%。2日，该组织首席经济学家阿尔瓦罗·桑托斯·佩雷拉在报告 发布前的媒体吹风会上向法国媒体（接受法新社采访时）表示："由于关税，我们几乎下调了全球所有 经济体的经济增长预期……贸易受到了影响，尤其是消费和投资。" 佩雷拉3日在经济展望报告发布会上表示，当前全球经济经贸政策面临重大的、前所未有的不确定性， 对各项经济指标产生了深远影响。他提到，贸易的不确定性、美国贸易政策的剧烈变化是造成包括美 国、加拿大等国经济预期下调的重要原因。 经合组织将于3日至4日在巴黎举行部长级会议，美国和欧盟谈判代表也将在此次会议期间就关税问题进 行讨论。"我们有理由担心，保护主义和与贸易政策相关的不确定性将进一步加剧。"佩雷拉3日在部长 级会议开幕式上表示。 （文章来源：新 ...