金固股份 20250427 摘要 • 2024 年零部件产品销量同比增长 15%至约 1,100 万只，汽车零部件制造 业毛利率提升 3.14%至 16.17%，主要受益于高毛利的阿凡达低碳车轮销 量增长，抵消了低毛利备胎传统产品因合资品牌汽车销量下降带来的不利 影响。原材料钢材价格同比下降 8.38%导致部分产品售价降低，营业收入 与去年同期持平。 • 2024 年公司归属上市公司股东扣非净利润同比增长约 107%至 1,600 万 元，主要得益于阿凡达低碳车轮销量增加及产品结构优化。但子公司杭州 金固阿凡达引入战略投资人并存在业绩承诺，计提或有财务费用约 900 万 元，对归属上市股东净利润产生影响。 • 2025 年一季度营收同比增长 8.48%至 8.87 亿元，尽管钢材价格同比下 降 13%导致部分产品售价降低，且低毛利备胎产品销量减少，但高单价、 高毛利的阿凡达低碳车轮销量显著提升，推动营收逆势增长。计提或有财 务费用约 2,300 余万元，剔除后一季度净利润预计超过 3,000 万元，同比 增长约 210%。 • 公司计划加大阿凡达低碳车轮产能布局，已在阜阳、合肥、南宁及泰国新 建产能，总量约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company "好想你" has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a notable recovery in its financial performance driven by cost advantages and effective expense management [2][3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, total revenue was 1.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, with a net loss of 72 million yuan compared to a loss of 52 million yuan in 2023. The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 413 million yuan, a decrease of 16%, but a net profit of 40 million yuan, an increase of 216% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 22.62% and 33.97%, respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability as high-cost raw materials have been consumed [3]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has effectively reduced sales and management expense ratios, leading to improved net profit margins of -4.53% in 2024 and 9.62% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from lower raw material costs and reduced depreciation expenses, which will enhance profitability in the coming years [4]. Product and Channel Strategy - The revenue from red date products, health preservation products, and other categories in 2024 was 1.22 billion yuan, 69 million yuan, and 320 million yuan, respectively, with a focus on developing differentiated and technologically advanced products [3]. - Offline channel revenue increased by 3% to 1.14 billion yuan, driven by new retail channels, while e-commerce revenue decreased by 16% to 475 million yuan due to channel relocation [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 0.02 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.27 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 502, 70, and 44 times [4].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 公司发布24年年报及25年一季报,24年公司实现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润46.3/1.2/1.0亿元，同 比-21.8%/-53.1%/-57.5%。25Q1公司实现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润6.9/-0.6/-0.7亿元，同 比-16.1%/转亏/转亏。 点评： 陶瓷行业低迷，公司经营承压 受房地产行业调整影响，市场竞争加剧，陶瓷行业持续承压，24年全国陶瓷砖产量为 59.1 亿平方米，同比 下降12.2%。在较为低迷的行业背景下，公司经营持续承压，24年营收及利润均同比下滑，25Q1营收仍有 所下滑并出现亏损。毛利率的下降、管理费用率的提升及资产减值损失（应收坏账准备、存货跌价准备以 及工抵房 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in net profit, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by the consumption of high-cost raw materials and effective cost control measures [2][3] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing cost management in e-commerce channels, which is expected to lead to improved profitability [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue was 1.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, with a net loss of 72 million yuan compared to a loss of 52 million yuan in 2023. The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 413 million yuan, a decrease of 16%, but a net profit of 40 million yuan, an increase of 216% [1][9] - The company distributed a total cash dividend of 611 million yuan as of December 31, 2024, marking a historical high in dividend payout [1] Profitability and Cost Management - Gross margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 22.62% and 33.97%, respectively, with a recovery in profitability expected as high-cost raw materials are depleted and new procurement costs are at historical lows [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points in 2024 and 1 percentage point in Q1 2025, while the management expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating effective cost control [2] Product and Channel Strategy - Revenue from red date products, health preservation products, and other categories in 2024 was 1.22 billion yuan, 69 million yuan, and 320 million yuan, respectively, with a focus on developing differentiated and technologically advanced red date products [3] - Offline channel revenue increased by 3% to 1.14 billion yuan in 2024, driven by new retail channels, while e-commerce revenue decreased by 16% to 475 million yuan due to channel relocation impacts [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see continued improvement in profitability due to lower raw material costs and the expiration of certain depreciation expenses, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.02, 0.17, and 0.27 yuan, respectively [9]

Financial Overview - In the first quarter, the financial institutions in Beijing increased credit support for the real economy, with the RMB loan balance growing by 5.1% year-on-year, and a two-year geometric average growth rate of 8.7%, adding 449.97 billion RMB since the beginning of the year [1] - The total social financing scale increased by 842.55 billion RMB in the first quarter, which is 271.23 billion RMB higher than the same period last year, indicating a historically high level [1] Credit Structure Optimization - The People's Bank of China, Beijing Branch, has been enhancing support for key areas and weak links, with green loan balances increasing by 140.03 billion RMB, accounting for 30.6% of the total loan increase [1] - Inclusive small and micro loans grew by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall loan growth rate [1] Financing Costs - The loan market quotation rate reform has effectively reduced financing costs, with the average weighted interest rate for general loans in March at 3.49%, down 21 basis points year-on-year, and for corporate loans at 2.63%, down 34 basis points [2] - The total RMB deposit balance increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with household deposits growing by 9.9% and non-financial corporate deposits by 4.1%, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than the previous year [2] Long-term Funding Support - Long-term stable funding support for the real economy has increased, with corporate medium and long-term loans growing by 7.0% year-on-year, adding 197.54 billion RMB in the first quarter [3] - Medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing sector grew by 15.8%, outpacing the overall industry growth by 8.6 percentage points, while high-tech manufacturing loans increased by 11.4% [3] - The real estate sector also saw a significant increase in medium and long-term loans, growing by 13.2% year-on-year, with an increase of 49.77 billion RMB in the first quarter [3]

Core Viewpoint - BYD has reported strong financial results for Q1 2025, showcasing significant growth in revenue and net profit amidst increasing competition in the global electric vehicle market [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, BYD achieved a revenue of 170.36 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.35% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 9.15 billion yuan, marking a substantial growth of 100.38% compared to the same period last year [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 8.17 billion yuan, up 117.80% year-on-year [2]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both 3.12 yuan, reflecting a 98.73% increase from the previous year [2]. Sales and Market Expansion - BYD's sales volume in Q1 2025 reached 1,000,800 units, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 60% [3]. - The company continues to focus on technological innovation as a core driver for growth, with R&D expenses amounting to 14.22 billion yuan, exceeding the net profit for the same period [3]. Financial Management and Risk Control - BYD's asset-liability ratio has decreased from 77% at the end of Q4 2024 to 70% by the end of Q1 2025, indicating improved financial stability [5]. - The company has demonstrated strong cash flow management, with a recent placement of 129.8 million H-shares raising approximately 5.6 billion USD, attracting significant long-term investment [5][6]. - These financial strategies enhance BYD's ability to withstand external risks and support sustainable development in an uncertain economic environment [6].

Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating with a target price adjusted to RMB 32.50 [1][9] Core Views - The company has cleared goodwill impairment risks and is expanding plasma collection stations through both organic and external growth, establishing a foundation for future growth. The potential impact of tariffs on imported albumin may benefit domestic albumin products [1][9] - The company reported a full-year revenue of RMB 1.74 billion, a decrease of 34.58%, while net profit increased by 67.18% to RMB 397 million, primarily due to a low base from goodwill impairment in 2023 [1][9] - The product structure is continuously optimized, with blood product revenue growing by 4.32% to RMB 1.51 billion, despite a slight decline in gross profit margin [1][9] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2027 show a recovery trend, with net profit expected to reach RMB 753 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][6] - The company has a projected EPS of RMB 1.16 for 2025 and RMB 1.50 for 2027, with a PE ratio of 28X for 2025 [1][9] - The company has 20 operating plasma stations and plans to increase plasma collection volume to 630.6 tons in 2024, a 10.4% increase [1][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to RMB 32.50 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has cleared goodwill impairment risks and is expanding its plasma collection stations through both organic growth and acquisitions, establishing a foundation for future growth. The potential impact of tariffs on imported albumin may benefit domestic albumin products [1][9]. - The company reported a full-year revenue of RMB 1.74 billion in 2024, a decrease of 34.58%, while net profit increased by 67.18% to RMB 397 million, primarily due to a low base from goodwill impairment in 2023 [1][9]. - The product structure is continuously optimized, with blood product revenue growing by 4.32% to RMB 1.51 billion in 2024, despite a slight decline in gross profit margin [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the upcoming years have been adjusted, with 2025 EPS projected at RMB 1.16 and 2026 EPS at RMB 1.33, while a new forecast for 2027 EPS is set at RMB 1.50 [1][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with plasma collection volume projected to reach 630.6 tons in 2024, reflecting a 10.4% increase [1][9]. - The financial outlook includes a projected net profit of RMB 585 million for 2025, with a net profit margin expected to improve over the years [1][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.64 CNY per share [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 322.12 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 6.60% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.36 billion CNY, down 38.36% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 72.88 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.82% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 26.37% year-on-year to 2.43 billion CNY [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's steel sales volume was 51.59 million tons, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year, while the average product price was 4,507 CNY per ton, down 6.89% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 improved to 7.22%, an increase of 2.09 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 CNY per share, totaling approximately 2.15 billion CNY, with an overall annual distribution of 4.52 billion CNY, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.34% [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is focused on optimizing its product structure, with a sales volume of high-end products increasing by 9.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 52.24 million tons of steel in 2025, representing a 1.3% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has made significant progress in international expansion, with export sales reaching 6.07 million tons in 2024, up 3.9% year-on-year [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant improvement in Q1 profitability, with a continuous optimization of product structure [1]. - Despite a decrease in revenue and net profit for 2024, the first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery in net profit [1][2]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development and international expansion, which are expected to drive future growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.362 billion yuan, down 38.36% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 72.880 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.82% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 26.37% year-on-year to 2.434 billion yuan [1][2]. Sales and Margins - Steel sales in 2024 were 51.59 million tons, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year. The company aims to sell 52.24 million tons in 2025, a 1.3% increase [2]. - The average product price in 2024 was 4,507 yuan/ton, down 6.89% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 7.22% in Q1 2025, up 2.09 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.15 billion yuan, with an overall payout of 4.516 billion yuan for the year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.34% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is optimizing its product structure, with a focus on high-strength steel and silicon steel products, which are gaining market share [3]. - Key projects are progressing, including the establishment of high-end steel production capacities [3]. - The company is expanding its international presence, with a notable increase in export volumes [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.830 billion yuan, 11.122 billion yuan, and 12.427 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [4][5].