老铁们，我是帮主郑重。今天咱们来唠唠隔夜全球市场的跌宕起伏。美股这边刚收盘，道指跌了119点，纳指倒是微涨，但整体市场情绪就像热锅上的蚂蚁 ——中美经贸会谈周末就要开锣，特朗普那边又喊着要加80%关税，这戏码演得投资者心里直打鼓。 先说美股表现，道指这周累计跌了0.16%，纳指和标普也没好到哪儿去，全周都是绿盘报收。彭博社有个指标显示，标普500的回报前景已经跌到历史最差 阶段，说白了就是企业盈利预期被贸易摩擦这团乌云压得喘不过气。 特朗普这老爷子又出来刷存在感了，在Truth Social上喊话要对外国商品收80%关税，还甩锅给财长贝森特定夺。不过市场一听就懂——这哪是谈判前的示 好？分明是给谈判桌添堵。欧盟那边也不示弱，直接甩出950亿欧元的反制清单，烈酒、汽车零件全在清单上，这哪是关税战，简直是精准打击美国消费命 门。 科技股七巨头里，特斯拉成了夜空中最亮的星，周五涨了4.7%，英国市场被中国车企抢了风头，但资本更看重它未来的储能故事。反观谷歌、Meta这些老 面孔，本周累计跌了6%以上，AI概念退潮的迹象越来越明显。中概股这边冰火两重天，极氪暴涨7.79%，但网易、拼多多集体哑火，港股科技板块的寒气还 ...

英美就关税协议达成一致，特朗普又来"喊单"，乐观情绪提振美股，美元指数站上100关口，比特币重回10万美元。 随着市场情绪好转，美债和黄金转跌。 受贸易利好消息提振，美股三大指数齐涨，科技股、芯片股、AI概念股多数涨： 美股三大股指： 标普500指数收涨32.66点，涨幅0.58%，报5663.94点。 道琼斯工业平均指数收涨254.48点，涨幅0.62%，报41368.45点。 纳指收涨189.98点，涨幅1.07%，报17928.14点。纳斯达克100指数收涨195.59点，涨幅0.98%，报20063.57点。 罗素2000指数收涨1.85%，报2026.41点。 恐慌指数VIX收跌4.67%，报22.45。 "科技七姐妹"表现优异： 美股行业ETF： 全球航空业ETF收涨3.31%，区域银行ETF涨2.41%，银行业ETF涨1.99%。 能源业ETF、网络股指数ETF、可选消费ETF至多涨1.32%，科技行业ETF、半导体ETF至少涨0.88%，医疗业ETF则 收跌0.9%。 科技七巨头冲高回落。谷歌A盘初涨约2%，特斯拉盘初涨超3.8%，微软盘初涨近1.8%，Meta盘初涨约2.5%，亚马逊 盘初涨 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a high opening followed by a decline, with the military and chemical sectors leading the gains, indicating accelerated rotation of themes [1][2][3] - The major indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8% to 3342 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index increased by 0.22% and 0.51% respectively [1] - The total trading volume reached 1.47 trillion, an increase of 132.1 billion from the previous day, reflecting heightened market activity and intensified capital competition [1] Group 2 - The military sector saw significant gains due to the escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict and the accelerated commercialization of the domestic C919 aircraft, with stocks like Chenxi Aviation hitting the daily limit [2] - The chemical sector reached new highs, driven by price increase expectations for titanium dioxide and fertilizers, along with improved performance and sustained institutional inflows [3][4] - Other sectors such as robotics and new materials also showed strong performance, with stocks like Quanzhi Co. and Zhongxin Fluorine Material gaining attention [5][6] Group 3 - There was a noticeable decline in AI-related stocks, with concepts like Kimi and Nvidia experiencing significant drops, indicating a shift in market focus [7][8] - The overall sentiment in the market showed a preference for trending stocks, with notable interest in stocks that have shown consecutive gains [9] - The technology sector faced challenges, with the market reacting negatively to financial policies aimed at stabilizing expectations, leading to a mixed performance in tech stocks [11][12]

不过市场总有两面性，影视院线板块今儿有点蔫儿，上海电影跌得有点惨；游戏股和AI概念股也有点不给力，电魂网络、冰川网络还有润泽科技、税友股 份这些票儿，都成了跌幅榜上的"显眼包"。总体来看，市场还是涨多跌少，超3400只个股飘红，赚钱效应还算凑合。 说到这儿得跟大伙儿念叨念叨，军工板块这波爆发，跟最近的消息面不无关系。周边局势的动态咱得持续关注，从长期看，军工行业的高景气度和国产替代 逻辑依然扎实，中长线的朋友可以把这板块放进自选池好好研究。地产股呢，现在政策底已经很明确了，但市场底还得磨一磨，短期博弈得小心节奏，中长 期可以留意那些财务健康的龙头企业。 下午怎么走？我觉得沪指3300点附近的支撑还算稳固，军工和科技成长板块可能还会有资金来回折腾。不过AI板块短期有点过热，得警惕回调风险。作为 20年的老财经记者，我始终觉得，投资得看长做短，甭管市场怎么波动，守住自己的能力圈最重要。 大家伙儿上午看盘了吗？这里是帮主郑重的午评时间，每天陪你唠唠市场那些事儿。今儿早盘A股挺给面儿，三大股指集体收红，尤其是军工板块，那叫一 个热闹，简直像打了鸡血似的全线爆发！航飞方向带头冲锋，通易航天直接来了个30cm的大涨停，晨 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant decline in the performance of funds managed by Jin Zicai of Caitong Fund, with all 13 funds under his management ranking in the bottom ten of their categories as of April 30, 2025 [2][6][10] - Jin Zicai's previous success in 2024, where his fund achieved a net return of 48.62%, has sharply contrasted with the current year's performance, where funds have recorded losses exceeding 22% [2][4][6] - The phenomenon of "champion curse" in the mutual fund industry is discussed, indicating that funds that perform well in one period often struggle in subsequent periods, with many top-performing funds from previous years experiencing significant downturns [3][4] Fund Performance - As of April 30, 2025, Jin Zicai's funds have all recorded negative returns, with the worst performers being Caitong Growth Preferred A/C, which saw returns of -22.89% and -22.97%, ranking 2326th and 2328th out of 2331 similar products [6][10] - Caitong's other funds, such as Caitong Value Momentum A and Caitong Smart Growth A/C, also performed poorly, with returns of -23.38% and -23.57%, placing them at the bottom of their respective categories [6][10] - The overall average return for Caitong Fund's products was -3.72%, with 47 out of 97 products showing negative returns [11] Fund Management Strategy - Jin Zicai's investment strategy underwent a significant shift in 2025, where he reduced exposure to overseas computing power stocks and increased allocation to domestic computing power stocks, which ultimately did not yield the expected results [12][13] - The concentration of holdings in his funds is notably high, with the top ten holdings in Caitong Growth Preferred A having a concentration of 64.88%, significantly above the industry average of 37.75% [14] - The article suggests that the reliance on Jin Zicai's personal investment style has exposed weaknesses in Caitong Fund's research and investment framework, leading to a lack of stability in fund performance [14] Fund Size and Market Impact - The decline in fund performance has led to a reduction in the assets under management, with eight out of thirteen funds experiencing a decrease in size, including a 37.84% drop in Caitong Growth Preferred A [10] - Caitong Fund's total assets under management have decreased by 32.91% from the previous year, dropping to 678.57 billion yuan [10] - The article emphasizes the broader implications of these performance issues on investor confidence and the overall market perception of Caitong Fund [10][11]

宏观风险压制，短期震荡 东海期货沪锡周度分析 有色及新能源策略组 2025-5-6 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 彭亚勇 分析师： 从业资格证号：F03142221 投资咨询证号：Z0021750 电话：021-80128600-8628 邮箱：pengyy@qy.qh168.com.cn 观点总结 | | 五一假期期间，美国经济数据喜忧参半，整体显示美国经济处于放缓过程中，制造业PMI边际下滑至48.7， 为2024年11月来新低，虽然非农超预期，但考虑到1、2月下修5.8万人，以及关税影响尚未体现，难言 | | --- | --- | | 宏观 | 乐观，首次申请失业人数和续请失业金人数均超预期；关税方面，特朗普表示不急于达成贸易协议，美 | | | 日谈判没有达成共识，近期美国可能下调对我国关税，短期有助于提振市场情绪。 | | | 4月23日缅甸佤邦召开复产前座谈会，会议宣布了佤邦中央经济计划委员会于 2025 年 3 月发布的文件， | | 供应 | 复产流程进一步明确，复产将继续推进，云南江西两地炼厂开工率依然处于低位，进口窗口小幅打开后再 关闭，预计5月进口量维持高位。 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of maintaining rates in May due to strong employment data and easing inflation pressures [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May exceeds 96%, indicating a strong consensus in the market [3]. - April's non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly surpassing the expected 138,000, reflecting a robust labor market [3]. - The March PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE dropping to 2.6%, suggesting reduced short-term pressure for rate hikes [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Recent tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve have emerged, with President Trump suggesting that the Fed should lower rates, which could undermine the Fed's independence [3][4]. - The upcoming press conference is crucial for understanding Fed Chair Powell's stance on inflation, economic outlook, and political pressures [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - A hawkish signal from Powell could lead to a rebound in the dollar index, putting short-term pressure on the Chinese yuan, while long-term trends will depend on domestic economic resilience [5]. - If the Fed signals a stable liquidity environment without aggressive rate hikes, technology stocks may continue to perform well, driven by AI trends [5]. - Gold prices are sensitive to interest rates; maintaining current rates could enhance its appeal as a safe-haven asset, while oil prices will depend on the Fed's economic outlook [5]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Current market expectations indicate a 35% probability of a rate cut in June, suggesting that most believe the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The focus should be on whether the Fed's policy logic shifts from "anti-inflation priority" to "balancing growth and inflation," which will influence asset allocation strategies in the coming months [5].

·2025上海车展闭幕首发新车163台观展人次超百万 ·离岸人民币汇率持续走强上涨近1% ·日美暂未达成关税共识日本财务大臣称美债可当谈判筹码 ·5月2日，第二十一届上海国际汽车工业展览会在此间闭幕，共吸引了来自26个国家和地区的近1000家车企参展。2025上海车展展出总面积超过36万平方 米，其中首发新车达163台。主办方公布的数据显示，2025上海车展共接待海内外观众101万人次。（新华社） ·香港特区政府统计处2日发布经济数据，2025年第一季度香港本地生产总值预先估计数字同比上升3.1%，比去年第四季度上升0.6个百分点，创5个季度新 高。经济按季增长2%，是两年来最快增速。特区政府发言人表示，内地经济持续稳步增长、政府积极通过推动旅游业及盛事项目以刺激消费市道，就业收 入上升会继续支持零售业。（新华财经） ·统计数据显示，5月1日当日，天津邮轮口岸出入境旅客近1.5万人，办理240小时过境免签手续的旅客达到400余人，创下邮轮母港复航以来单日出入境人数 和单日办理240小时过境免签手续人数新高。（新华社） ·中国银行间市场交易商协会数据显示，一季度支持民企发债762.5亿元。从融资成本看，一季度民 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. economy showed unexpected contraction with a GDP decline of 0.3% in Q1, marking the first quarterly negative growth since 2022, significantly below the expected growth of 0.4% [3][11] - The market reacted sharply to the GDP data, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 800 points and the Nasdaq falling close to 3% during early trading [3][5] - Following news of potential trade negotiations and tariff adjustments, the market began to recover, reducing most of the earlier losses [5] Group 2 - Major companies like AMD saw significant stock declines, with Supermicro Computer dropping over 11% due to disappointing earnings forecasts [6] - Among the tech giants, Microsoft and Meta reported better-than-expected earnings, with Meta raising its capital expenditure guidance for the year, leading to stock price increases [8] - In contrast, Tesla and Amazon experienced stock declines, with Tesla down 3.4% and Amazon down 1.6% after initial larger drops [8] Group 3 - The U.S. Commerce Department indicated that the GDP decline was primarily due to a 36% surge in preemptive imports before the implementation of Trump's tariff policies, which expanded the trade deficit [11] - Consumer spending growth was weak at only 1.8%, the lowest since mid-2023, contributing to the economic slowdown [11] - Some economists warned that if current tariff policies remain unchanged, the U.S. economy could face stagnation, with a 90% probability of recession predicted by Apollo Global Management's chief economist [12] Group 4 - Trump quickly attributed the economic downturn to his predecessor, claiming it was "Biden's stock market" and asserting that the economy is merely in a transitional phase [14][15] - Criticism arose regarding Trump's economic policies, with some analysts noting that the stock market and dollar performance during his term has been the worst since 1980 [16] - Retail giants like Walmart and Target have begun to absorb tariff costs, indicating a shift in strategy due to supply chain disruptions caused by the tariff war [19][20]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.51%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.1%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 1.35% [1] - Technology-related stocks, including Xiaomi concept stocks, SaaS, and AI-related stocks, performed actively [1] Technology Sector - Notable gains were seen in technology stocks such as Kingsoft Cloud (03896.HK) up 14.2%, Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) up 5.27%, and Kingsoft (03888.HK) up 7.07% [1] - The AI competition is intensifying, with Alibaba recently launching Qwen 3, claiming competitive performance in mathematics and programming [1] - Xiaomi announced the launch of its first inference open-source model, Mimo, aimed at enhancing inference capabilities [1] Robotics Sector - Robotics stocks collectively rose, with MicroPort Robotics (02252.HK) up 11.01% and SUTENG (02498.HK) up 6.05% [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that humanoid robots will drive innovation in the AI industry, with projections estimating the global humanoid robot market to approach $5 trillion by 2050 [2] Insurance Sector - Insurance stocks generally increased, with AIA Group (01299.HK) up 6.51% and China Pacific Insurance (00966.HK) up 3.66% [2] - The five major listed insurance companies reported a combined net profit of 84.176 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [2] Consumer Sector - Various consumer sectors, including luxury goods, retail, and tourism, saw positive performance with Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) up 8.46% and China Duty Free Group (01880.HK) up 3.42% [3] - Anticipation for the upcoming May Day holiday is driving consumer spending, with local governments introducing promotional activities to boost tourism and retail [3] Declining Sectors - Banking stocks mostly declined, with Shengjing Bank (02066.HK) down 5.71% and China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) down 4.61% [3] - Gold and non-ferrous metal stocks also fell, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) down 2.49% [3] - Other sectors such as wind power, nuclear power, and medical aesthetics also experienced a general pullback [3]