Investment Rating - The report indicates an expectation that the US effective tariff rate will settle closer to 18% rather than the current 13.4% [1] Core Insights - The new tariff measures are projected to raise the average effective US tariff rate to 16.9%, significantly higher than the 2.3% at the end of 2024, but below the 22.4% in force on April 2 [10] - The report highlights that the effective tariff increases scheduled for August 1 will include a 50% tariff on copper and a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals [5][17] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff adjustments are expected to have a direct impact on global GDP growth, with a projected drag increasing from 0.5 percentage points to 0.7 percentage points under the new tariff regime [23] Summary by Sections Tariff Rates - The effective US tariff rates are expected to increase significantly, with specific rates such as 50% on copper and reciprocal tariffs on various countries [5][10] - The report outlines that the effective tariff rates for several countries will revert to the April "Liberation Day" levels if no new tariff letters are issued [14] Economic Impact - The report estimates that the direct GDP impact for the US from the new tariffs could be around -0.8 percentage points, with emerging markets in Asia, particularly those excluding China, facing the highest exposure [24][32] - Global GDP growth is projected to expand at a sub-potential rate of 1.8%, with a notable downgrade in expectations since the US election [18] Sector-Specific Insights - The report discusses potential sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, indicating that these sectors are under active investigation and may face significant tariff increases [15][17] - Exemptions for certain sectors still imply lower effective tariff rates for many countries, but the risk of higher tariffs remains elevated due to ongoing investigations [17]

据CNN：巴西将向美国请求将关税降低至30%。 ...

巴西将向美国请求将关税降低至30%。（CNN Brasil） ...

Macro Insights - The recent tariff adjustments by the Trump administration have raised concerns about global trade dynamics, with tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% imposed on multiple countries, including major trading partners like Japan, South Korea, and the EU [2][3] - The U.S. manufacturing sector showed marginal improvement, with global manufacturing sentiment returning above the threshold, but the renewed tariff threats cast uncertainty on future growth [3] - The U.S. CPI and PPI data releases are anticipated to provide further insights into inflation trends, with the market closely monitoring these indicators [3] Industry Analysis - The real estate sector is experiencing weaker transaction volumes despite increased travel demand during the summer, influenced by adverse weather conditions [4] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from supply-side adjustments due to government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity, with a potential recovery in the second half of 2025 [14] - The heavy truck market is projected to see significant growth, with sales expected to exceed one million units, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [15] Company-Specific Insights - Gu Ming, a leading fresh beverage company, is expected to expand its market presence with a target price of 35.27 HKD, supported by a robust store network and efficient supply chain [16] - Si Yuan Electric, a leader in the power equipment sector, reported a 37.80% year-on-year revenue increase for H1 2025, indicating strong growth potential in both domestic and international markets [17] - China Shenhua's H1 2025 net profit is projected to decline by 13.2% to 20.0% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced business scale amid falling coal prices, yet the company maintains a strong position due to high long-term contract ratios [18] - Ecovacs is expected to see a significant recovery in profitability, with a projected net profit increase of 57.64% to 62.57% for H1 2025, driven by the "old-for-new" subsidy and competitive product offerings [19]

特朗普为进一步调整关税留有余地 金十数据7月13日讯，欧盟一直试图与美国达成一项临时协议，以避免更高的关税，但特朗普的信函打 破了欧盟最近的乐观情绪。然而，特朗普确实为进一步调整留有余地。Annex Wealth Management首席 经济学家布莱恩·雅各布森写道"像之前的信函一样，有很多条件和条款可以降低这些关税，这可能就是 市场可能不喜欢关税谈判，但也没有对此感到恐慌的原因。" ...

全球各国与美国的贸易谈判正面临前所未有的不确定性，即使达成协议也可能因特朗普的临时决定而被 推翻。这一现象正在严重冲击美国贸易谈判的可信度，并为全球贸易政策蒙上阴影。 越南的遭遇为其他国家敲响了警钟。据华尔街见闻此前文章提及，越南谈判代表原本认为双方已就约 11%的关税税率达成初步共识，但特朗普在7月2日与越南总书记苏林的通话中，无视这一数字，宣布美 国将对越南商品征收20%的关税，几乎是原定税率的两倍。 7月11日，据媒体报道，本周特朗普向近24个贸易伙伴发出信函，宣布将从8月1日起征收20%至50%的 关税。多国政策制定者通过特朗普社交媒体才得知关税税率，印尼经济事务部长Airlangga Hartarto表 示，"既惊讶又震惊"地发现该国将面临32%的关税。 分析指出，这种谈判模式的不可预测性正在削弱其他国家对美国贸易谈判可信度的信心，多国政策制定 者警告称，与美国的谈判就像"穿过迷宫"然后"回到原点"。 越南协议突变引发震动 7月2日据新华社，特朗普在社交媒体上称美越达成贸易协议，越南所有对美出口商品将面临至少20%关 税，并对美国"完全开放市场"。 媒体报道指出，越南与美国的贸易协议变故成为特朗普谈 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the potential for a temporary trade agreement between the United States and India, which may lower the planned tariff rates on India to below 20% [1] - There are indications that India is seeking a more favorable trade agreement compared to the recent U.S.-Vietnam agreement, which has faced complications [6] - Following recent trade negotiations, India has indicated plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products in response to U.S. tariffs on Indian automotive imports [7] Group 1 - The U.S. is reportedly working towards a temporary trade agreement with India, which could ease tensions and allow for further negotiations [1] - The Indian government is looking for a trade deal that is more advantageous than the one recently proposed to Vietnam, which has been criticized for its unfavorable terms [6] - After a recent round of negotiations, India has communicated its intention to the WTO regarding retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. products [7] Group 2 - India is expected to send a delegation to the U.S. for further trade discussions, focusing on resolving disputes over tariffs on automotive parts, steel, and agricultural products [8] - The U.S. has requested India to open its agricultural market, particularly for genetically modified crops, but India has rejected this due to concerns over food security [9] - Key issues remain unresolved, including non-tariff barriers in agriculture and regulatory processes in the pharmaceutical sector [9]

以下文章来源于财经图解 ，作者乘桴于海 特朗普则指出，加税部分原因是为"纠正（巴西）现政权的严重不公"，尤其是巴西政府对前总统博索纳 罗的"政治迫害"。博索纳罗将于今年晚些时候面临审判，罪名是在2022年大选中以微弱劣势落败后，试 图推翻卢拉政府。 除巴西外，美国对菲律宾、文莱、日本和马来西亚这4国的最新关税相较"对等关税"时也有所增加，但 增量相对较小。对菲律宾的税率较当时增加了3个百分点，对文莱、日本和马来西亚均增加了1个百分 点。 最新关税税率下降的12个国家中，美国对斯里兰卡的税率调降最多，减少了14个百分点至30%；柬埔寨 紧随其后，减少了13个百分点至36%。美国对老挝和缅甸的税率分别减少了8个、4个百分点，但最新税 率依然高达40%，仅次于巴西。 此外，泰国、印度尼西亚、阿尔及利亚、南非和韩国这5国，最新关税税率与对等关税时相比未发生变 化，均在30%上下。 据特朗普的贸易信函，在7月剩下的时间里，如果这些国家不能与美国达成贸易协议，则8月1日为最新 关税的生效期限。值得注意的是，上一轮"对等关税"谈判里，从4月3日到7月9日的这3个月里，美国仅 与英国和越南达成了贸易框架协议。 财经图解 . ...

缅甸领导人敏昂莱7月9日致信美国总统特朗普，要求将缅甸关税税率从40%降至10%至20%。他同时表 示，如果需要，准备派一个谈判团队前往华盛顿。美国总统特朗普7月7日表示，将从8月1日起对14个国 家的进口产品征收25%到40%不等的关税，其中缅甸面临高达40%的关税。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1 - The A-share market closed above the 3500-point mark, indicating a continued recovery in market risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the high point from November 8, 2024 [1][3] - The recent market uptrend is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, suggesting that the market has become desensitized to tariff impacts and has formed sufficient expectations regarding these changes [1] - Key support factors for the ongoing rise in A-shares include the sustained low interest rate environment and the potential for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The outlook for July suggests that the A-share market may continue to experience event-driven thematic trading, with a high likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing segments [2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption is a key task for 2025, with expectations for policy support in the consumer sector, particularly in areas like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue into 2025, with opportunities arising in sensor, controller, and robotic hand sectors as products evolve from humanoid to functional robots [2] Group 3 - The market saw over 2900 stocks rise, with significant gains in sectors such as real estate, oil and petrochemicals, steel, non-bank financials, and coal, while sectors like automotive, media, military, electronics, and utilities faced declines [3] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already evident in Q1 reports across various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment, with positive net profit growth observed for three consecutive quarters since Q3 2024 [2]