国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（5 月 14 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指站上 3400 点整数关口。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.86%，收报 3403.95 点；深证成指涨 0.64%，收报 10354.22 点；创业板指涨 1.01%，收报 2083.14 点。沪深两 市成交额达到 13167 亿，较昨日小幅放量 252 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 14 日强势，收盘 3943.21，环比上涨 46.95。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 14 日焦炭加权指数弱势反弹，收盘价 1483.8 元，环比上涨 22.8。 客服产品系列•日评 5 月 14 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 894.6 元，环比上涨 18.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭提降一轮。13 日邢台地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭下调 50 元/吨、干熄焦炭下调 55 元/吨，2025 年 5 月 16 日零点执行。13 日天津地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭下调 50 元/吨、干熄焦炭下调 55 元/吨，2025 年 5 月 16 日零点执行。13 日石家庄地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭 ...

| 11 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 现价(元) | 张跃幅(%) | 区间涨跌幅:前复权(%) ②↓ 05.12-05.15 | 所属同花顺行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 833171 | 国航远洋 | 14.75 | 19.68 | 116.72 | 交通运输 港口航运 航运 | | | 601022 | 宁波远洋 | 11.12 | ਰੇ ਰੇਰੇ | 39.52 | 交通运输 ·潜口航运 ·航运 | | | 600798 | 宁波海运 | 4.07 | 10.00 | 37.04 | 交通运输 · 港口航运 航运 | | | 000520 | 凤凰航运 | 6.00 == | 7.32 | 33.04 | 交通运输 港口航运 航运 | | િ | 601083 | 锦江航运 | 14.28 | 10.01 | 28.62 | 交通运输 · 塔口航运 航运 | | | 601866 | 中远海发 | 2.87 | 9.96 | 25.33 | 交通运输 ·港口航运 航运 | | | 603162 | 海通发展 | 9.00 | ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业团队 2025/5/15 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 周三，螺纹钢期货价格震荡上行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3240 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 40 元/吨，10 合约基差 113（-8）。宏观政策方面，5 月 7 日， 三部门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过市 场仍在期待财政政策发力，中美会谈成果超预期，双方大幅互降关税， 市场预期改善；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积， 供需格局有转差迹象，当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始 季节性回落还需进一步观察。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格仍 低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸 易环境改善，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现 实供需尚可，但需求仍面临季节性下滑压力，关注需求变化，低估值背 景下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周三，中美会谈成果营造良好预期，市场再度炒作抢出口，盘面向上回 调。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 778 ...

2025 年 05 月 15 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》点评——攻守 之势迎转折，建议红利底仓叠加出口链弹性 资产配置报告 最近一年走势 相关报告 《资产配置报告：国新办发布会点评——资本市场 迎来多重利好*林加力》——2025-05-08 《4 月资金流向月报：价值型资金或仍为主要定价 力量*徐凝碧，林加力》——2025-05-07 《资产配置报告：社融总量超预期，信贷结构显现 积极变化*林加力，徐凝碧》——2025-04-17 事件: 5 月 12 日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称"联合声明"）发 布，双方承诺将于 2025 年 5 月 14 日前采取以下举措：美国将（一）修 改 2025 年 4 月 2 日对中国商品加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初 始的 90 天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余 10%的关税；（二）取消 2025 年 4 月 8 日和 4 月 9 日的加征关税。中国 将（一）相应修改对美国商品加征 ...

Group 1 - Huawei is set to launch the HarmonyOS foldable laptop during the nova 14 series and HarmonyOS computer product launch event on May 19 [1] - The China Real Estate Association will hold the "Establishment Conference of the Business Travel Branch of the China Real Estate Association and the 2025 Commercial Real Estate Development Conference" in Beijing on June 12 [2] - Following the mutual tariff reductions between the US and China, container shipping bookings from China to the US have surged nearly 300% [3] Group 2 - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.12%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.35%. The Hang Seng Index declined by 0.25%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.62% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of increased tariffs on container shipping demand between China and the United States, leading to a sharp decline in import volumes and potential disruptions in logistics networks [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. container import volume has decreased by 30% compared to the same period last year due to the impact of increased tariffs on Chinese goods [1][3]. - Following the implementation of a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, shipping bookings for Chinese products have been canceled, with a reported 30-40% decrease in container transport volume between China and the U.S. in April [3][4]. - A forecast predicts that container arrivals from China to the U.S. will drop by 60% during the week of June 9-15 compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Shipping Demand and Freight Rates - The shipping industry is transitioning from a phase of ensuring inventory through last-minute shipments to one of releasing backlogged inventory [4]. - Despite a sharp decline in shipping demand, spot freight rates for container shipping remain strong, with rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast rising to $2,272 per 40-foot container, a 6% increase from the previous week [4]. - Shipping companies are adjusting supply by canceling scheduled routes and using smaller vessels, which has positively impacted freight rates [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - With the recent reduction of tariffs from 145% to 30%, there are expectations for a recovery in cargo transport; however, the time required to restore shipping capacity may lead to space shortages if cargo volumes surge [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：短期内聚酯库存向下转移，聚酯库存压力缓解下，负荷维持，PTA供需去库周期中流通性相对偏紧，加上近期由于 关税调整，终端订单环比改善，市场心态提振，短期内基差偏强。关注加工差好转预期下后期装置的检修兑现情况，以及终 端订单情况。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡上涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，日内消息面较多，近期价格上涨以及加工差修复，个别装置检 修计划可能延后，另外下午聚酯大厂对部分亏损产品规划减产，贸易商获利了结心态，且主流供应商也有在出5月货源，现货 基差涨后回落，贸易商商谈为主。个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of China-US tariff policies has led to a surge in shipping activities at Shenzhen Yantian Port, with significant increases in export volumes to the US and heightened demand for shipping capacity [1][3][15]. Group 1: Shipping and Logistics - Shenzhen Yantian Port is one of the busiest ports for North American routes in South China, currently handling over 25% of China's exports to the US [3][4]. - There are currently 5-6 vessels operating daily from Yantian Port to the US, indicating a busy shipping schedule [4][9]. - Shipping companies are urgently coordinating berth arrangements due to increased demand, as many have shifted capacity to Southeast Asia and Europe previously [7][20]. Group 2: Export Demand - US clients are rapidly placing orders to stock up during the 90-day tariff adjustment window, leading to a noticeable increase in the number of export containers arriving at the port [4][15]. - A Shanghai knitting factory has received a notification to ship over 50,000 garments that had been in storage for a month, with plans to ship a total of 300,000 items within the tariff adjustment period [10][14]. Group 3: Price Adjustments and Capacity Issues - Shipping rates for containers to the US have seen a rebound, with prices increasing by $500 to $1,500 per container, particularly for routes from Shanghai to New York [20][22]. - The shipping capacity for routes to the US has been reduced by over 30% previously, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand, which has driven up shipping prices [22]. Group 4: Broader Market Impact - Many foreign trade enterprises across China, including those in Jiangxi and Zhejiang, are experiencing a surge in orders from US clients, with some companies also exploring markets in Europe and other regions [27][23]. - Cross-border e-commerce companies in Shenzhen have begun to lower product prices, resulting in a significant influx of orders from US customers [34][36].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results on May 14, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 89.37 points to close at 42,051.06, a decrease of 0.21%, while the S&P 500 rose by 6.03 points to 5,892.58, an increase of 0.10%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 136.72 points to 19,146.81, a rise of 0.72% [1] - The S&P 500 index saw eight sectors decline and three sectors gain, with the healthcare and materials sectors leading the declines at 2.31% and 0.96%, respectively, while the communication services and technology sectors led the gains at 1.58% and 0.96% [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations may have alleviated some investor concerns, although uncertainties regarding future tariff levels remain [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank's strategist noted that U.S. companies are likely to benefit from lower tariffs in the short term, which may allow the S&P 500 to outperform other national indices [2] - Despite current lower tariff rates, U.S. companies still face a greater burden compared to European firms, indicating potential challenges ahead [2] - Morgan Stanley's market research head indicated that the next significant rise in the U.S. stock market may not occur until favorable policies are introduced in 2026, emphasizing a current investor preference for high-quality stocks that can meet earnings expectations [2]

重要新闻 1. 国务院关税税则委员会：调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施 国务院关税税则委员会公布公告，自2025年5月14日12时01分起，调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对 原产于美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》（税委会公告2025年第4号）规定的加征关税税率，由34%调 整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率。自2025年5月14日12时01分起，停止实施《国 务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》（税委会公告2025年第5 号）和《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》（税委会公告 2025年第6号）规定的加征关税措施。 2. 市场监管总局等五部门约谈外卖平台企业 近日，市场监管总局会同中央社会工作部、中央网信办、人力资源社会保障部、商务部，针对当前外卖 行业竞争中存在的突出问题，约谈京东、美团、饿了么等平台企业。要求相关平台企业严格遵守《中华 人民共和国电子商务法》《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》《中华人民共和国食品安全法》等法律法 规规定，严格落实主体责任，主动履行社会责任，加强内部管理，合法规范经营，公平有序竞争，共同 ...