Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a phase of direction selection again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the current upward market trend, considering the possible intensification of Q4 growth - stabilization policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4648.40, 4634.80, 4604.00, and 4567.40 respectively, with increases of 68.60, 68.00, 62.40, and 66.80, and increases of 1.50%, 1.49%, 1.37%, and 1.48% respectively. The trading volumes were 24392.00, 74172.00, 14177.00, and 3440.00, and the open interests were 40441.00, 153415.00, 55843.00, and 5714.00 respectively, with changes of - 2317.00, - 6793.00, - 1216.00, and 1074.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3067.40, 3066.80, 3069.20, and 3067.40 respectively, with increases of 23.40, 22.40, 23.60, and 24.40, and increases of 0.77%, 0.74%, 0.77%, and 0.80% respectively. The trading volumes were 11960.00, 37476.00, 5043.00, and 1819.00, and the open interests were 15335.00, 65887.00, 14472.00, and 2468.00 respectively, with changes of 218.00, 1268.00, 850.00, and 497.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7310.40, 7254.40, 7083.00, and 6903.40 respectively, with increases of 125.00, 125.20, 121.20, and 126.40, and increases of 1.74%, 1.76%, 1.74%, and 1.87% respectively. The trading volumes were 27275.00, 87202.00, 16929.00, and 5288.00, and the open interests were 49174.00, 140233.00, 51880.00, and 11298.00 respectively, with changes of 1344.00, 5789.00, 409.00, and 1439.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7399.40, 7322.60, 7105.20, and 6891.60 respectively, with increases of 55.80, 54.80, 54.80, and 58.60, and increases of 0.76%, 0.75%, 0.78%, and 0.86% respectively. The trading volumes were 45173.00, 137585.00, 23471.00, and 8513.00, and the open interests were 72266.00, 187588.00, 78846.00, and 20144.00 respectively, with changes of 2184.00, 4103.00, 2254.00, and 1214.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 13.60, - 0.60, - 56.00, and - 76.80 respectively, compared with previous values of - 12.80, 0.20, - 52.00, and - 71.20 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4716.02, 3045.82, 7258.53, and 7495.38 respectively, with increases of 1.19%, 0.62%, 1.62%, and 1.03% respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of shares) were 6726.70, 1554.40, 3660.62, and 4581.70 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the raw materials, telecommunications services, and information technology industries had relatively high increases of 2.24%, 3.72%, and 2.63% respectively, while the major consumer industry had a slight decline of - 0.03% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far - quarter - CSI 300 were - 12.28, - 25.88, - 56.68, and - 93.28 respectively; those of IH current month - SSE 50, IH next month - SSE 50, IH next quarter - SSE 50, and IH far - quarter - SSE 50 were 2.58, 2.78, 4.18, and 5.98 respectively; those of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC far - quarter - CSI 500 were - 68.99, - 124.99, - 296.39, and - 475.99 respectively; and those of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM far - quarter - CSI 1000 were - 95.98, - 172.78, - 390.18, and - 603.78 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3996.94, 13489.40, 8272.63, and 3234.45 respectively, with increases of 1.18%, 1.51%, 1.63%, and 1.98% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26433.70, 49299.65, 6875.16, and 24308.78 respectively, with increases of 1.05%, 1.35%, 1.23%, and 0.28% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Diplomatic Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing the hope that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level interactions and create conditions for bilateral relations. Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that China and the US were in close communication regarding the possible meeting of the two heads of state [2] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference opened. Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the central bank would maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, resume open - market treasury bond trading, and take other measures. Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze said that a financial service model emphasizing both investment in things and people would be constructed. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing said that reforms of the ChiNext would be deepened [2] - Premier Li Qiang attended the 5th RCEP Leaders' Meeting, calling on all parties to collaborate more closely to address challenges and support the accession of applicants such as Hong Kong, China. Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized that the financial system should prevent risks, strengthen supervision, and promote high - quality development and opening - up [2] 6. Industry Information - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered on October 27th. The prices per ton were reduced by 265 yuan and 255 yuan respectively [2] - Relevant authorities were considering a new document to standardize the naming of "semi - solid - state batteries" as "solid - liquid batteries" [2] - Shandong Province issued the first provincial - level special plan for low - altitude information infrastructure, aiming to build a low - altitude communication network infrastructure in ten years [2] - The Bank of Korea stated that stablecoins should be issued by traditional banks under national supervision, and the South Korean government was considering launching a won - linked stablecoin [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-10-28 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.80 | 49.40 | 49.80 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.00 | 50.30 | 50.00 | | 20251016 | 2025/09 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 35296.00 25660.00 | 37635.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251015 | 2025/09 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.50 | 11.70 | 11.50 | | 20251 ...

Group 1: Financial Market Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will resume open market operations for government bonds, indicating a positive outlook for the bond market and a supportive monetary policy stance to foster economic recovery and financial stability [4] - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy while enhancing the macro-prudential management system to monitor and assess systemic financial risks [4] Group 2: Digital Currency and Virtual Currency Regulation - The PBOC plans to optimize the management system for digital currency and support more commercial banks to operate digital currency services, while continuing to combat domestic virtual currency trading and speculation [5] - Policies to prevent and address risks associated with virtual currency trading remain effective, with ongoing collaboration with law enforcement to maintain economic and financial order [5] Group 3: Financial Reform and Opening Up - The National Financial Regulatory Administration emphasizes enhancing the adaptability of financial services to better support sustainable economic development and promote reform and opening up in the financial sector [6] - The administration will focus on strengthening funding support for major projects to boost domestic demand and improve financial services for various sectors, including education and healthcare [7] Group 4: Capital Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to deepening capital market reforms to enhance the inclusiveness and coverage of the multi-tiered market system [8] - The CSRC will promote pilot policies in Beijing, encouraging high-quality financial resources to gather in the capital and support the development of the capital market [9] Group 5: Internationalization of the Renminbi - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) will coordinate the internationalization of the Renminbi with high-quality capital account opening, ensuring systemic risk prevention while enhancing the foreign exchange policy framework [10]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a supportive monetary policy stance to foster economic recovery and maintain financial market stability amid complex domestic and international challenges [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - As of the end of September, the total social financing stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year, broad money (M2) increased by 8.4%, and the RMB loan balance rose by 6.6%, indicating a state of moderately loose monetary policy [2]. - The PBOC has utilized various monetary policy tools to ensure ample liquidity, creating a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery and stable financial market operations [2][3]. - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and will resume operations in the secondary market for government bonds to enhance the monetary policy toolkit [3]. Group 2: Credit System and Personal Financing - The PBOC is developing a one-time personal credit relief policy to help individuals who have defaulted on loans due to the pandemic but have since repaid them, aiming to improve their credit records [4]. - This policy will prevent certain default information from being displayed in the credit system, facilitating personal financing and economic participation [4]. Group 3: Digital Currency Management - The PBOC is committed to optimizing the management system for digital currency, having established operational centers in Shanghai and Beijing for international cooperation and system maintenance [5]. - The central bank will continue to monitor and regulate virtual currency activities while promoting the development of the digital RMB ecosystem [5]. Group 4: Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC is advancing the construction of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system, focusing on systemic financial risk monitoring, risk prevention measures for key institutions, and enhancing the macro-prudential management toolkit [6]. - The central bank aims to create a dynamic and collaborative process for building this system, which is essential for maintaining overall financial stability and supporting high-quality economic development [6].

Core Points - The 2025 Financial Street Forum focused on "Innovation, Transformation, and Reshaping Global Financial Development" and highlighted the importance of establishing a comprehensive macro-prudential management system [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the need for a robust macro-prudential management framework to address systemic financial risks and improve the correlation between macroeconomic operations and financial risks [1][3] - Key initiatives announced include the resumption of open market operations for government bonds, optimization of the digital RMB management system, and measures to support personal credit recovery [2][6] Group 1: Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC's focus on enhancing the macro-prudential management system includes better coverage of macroeconomic operations, financial market dynamics, systemically important financial institutions, and international economic risks [1][3] - The PBOC plans to strengthen additional supervision for systemically important banks and insurance companies, and will publish a list of such institutions to facilitate targeted regulatory measures [2][5] - The macro-prudential assessment (MPA) will be split into two parts: one focusing on monetary policy execution and the other on macro-prudential and financial stability assessments [3][4] Group 2: Open Market Operations and Digital Currency - The PBOC announced the resumption of open market operations for government bonds, which had been suspended due to market imbalances earlier in the year [6][7] - The resumption aims to stabilize bond market interest rates and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission [6][7] - The establishment of a digital RMB management center in Beijing is intended to support the development and operational management of digital currency, with a focus on optimizing its role within the monetary system [8]

Group 1 - Gold prices fell below $4000, with spot gold down 3.15% at $3981.98 per ounce and COMEX gold futures down 3.40% at $3997.00 per ounce [6][14] - The U.S. stock market indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq up 1.86%, S&P 500 up 1.23%, and Dow Jones up 0.71%, marking new highs [6][29] - International oil prices saw slight increases, with WTI crude oil up 0.08% at $61.55 per barrel [7] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released 23 measures to enhance the protection of small and medium investors in the capital market [9] - The CSRC announced the optimization of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, aiming to attract more long-term foreign capital [10] - The CSRC plans to implement deeper reforms in the ChiNext board to better serve emerging industries and innovative enterprises [11] Group 3 - Meituan announced nationwide coverage of social security subsidies for delivery riders, marking a significant step in improving labor relations in the industry [19][20] - JD.com launched a national recruitment plan for its "National Good Car" delivery centers, aiming to enhance service quality and user experience [21] - Douyin e-commerce announced the removal of logistics providers that violated platform rules, emphasizing consumer rights protection [22] Group 4 - Qualcomm introduced new AI chips aimed at competing with Nvidia in the data center market, with significant stock price increases following the announcement [26] - Xiaopeng Motors addressed internal changes in executive positions, indicating ongoing organizational optimization [23] - Tesla's chairman urged shareholders to support Elon Musk's nearly $1 trillion compensation plan, highlighting the importance of Musk's leadership for the company's future [28]

2025金融街论坛年会今天在北京举行，央行、证监会负责人出席论坛，并发布一系列重要消息。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜在论坛年会上表示，目前，债市整体运行良好，央行将恢复公开市场国债买卖 操作。 研究实施 支持个人修复信用的政策措施 潘功胜在论坛年会上表示，将研究实施支持个人修复信用的政策措施。 为帮助个人加快修复信用记录，同时发挥违约信用记录的约束效力，央行正在研究实施一次性的个人信 用救济政策，对于疫情以来违约在一定金额以下且已归还贷款的个人违约信息，将在征信系统中不予展 示。计划在明年初执行。 进一步优化数字人民币管理体系 潘功胜在论坛年会上表示，未来，央行将进一步优化数字人民币管理体系，研究优化数字人民币在货币 层次之中的定位，支持更多商业银行成为数字人民币业务运营机构。 继续打击境内虚拟货币经营和炒作 将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作 将启动实施深化创业板改革 中国证监会主席吴清在论坛年会上表示，将启动实施深化创业板改革，设置更加契合新兴领域和未来产 业创新创业企业特征的上市标准，为新产业、新业态、新技术企业提供更加精准、包容的金融服务。 为境外投资者提供更加高效的制度环境 吴清在论坛年会上表示，《合格境外投资 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Financial Street Forum released significant policy signals regarding macroeconomic management and financial stability [2] Group 1: Macro Prudential Management - The People's Bank of China aims to accelerate the establishment of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system [3] - There will be a focus on enhancing the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks [4] - The central bank will continue to support a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance [7] Group 2: Digital Currency and Credit Policies - Efforts will be made to optimize the management system for digital renminbi [5] - The central bank is researching a one-time personal credit relief policy for individuals who have defaulted on loans below a certain amount since the COVID-19 pandemic, with plans to implement this by early next year [8] Group 3: Financial Adaptability and Reform - The National Financial Regulatory Administration emphasizes improving economic and financial adaptability [9] - There will be a push to create a new financial service model that balances direct and indirect financing, and aligns financing terms with industry development [10] - The administration will also focus on enhancing long-term capital investment policies and promoting the development of modern financial institutions [10] Group 4: Capital Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will deepen reforms in the ChiNext board, introducing listing standards that better fit emerging industries [12] - There are plans to launch a refinancing framework and expand support channels for mergers and acquisitions [13] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Policy - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange is set to introduce new policies to enhance trade facilitation, including expanding cross-border trade pilot programs [15] - Upcoming measures will include the implementation of a unified currency pool for multinational companies and integrated foreign exchange management reforms in free trade zones [16]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by the Governor of the People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of establishing a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to enhance financial stability and prevent systemic risks in the financial sector [9][10]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has maintained a supportive monetary policy stance, with key indicators reflecting this approach: as of September, the social financing scale grew by 8.7% year-on-year, M2 increased by 8.4%, and loans rose by 6.6% [4]. - The central bank plans to continue implementing an appropriately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to ensure liquidity remains ample [4]. Government Bonds and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China has engaged in buying and selling government bonds in the secondary market to enhance monetary policy tools and support the bond market's development [5]. - Operations were paused earlier this year due to market imbalances but are set to resume as the bond market stabilizes [5]. Digital Currency and Virtual Currencies - The digital yuan, a legal digital currency issued by the People's Bank of China, has seen the establishment of an initial ecosystem, with plans for further optimization and support for more commercial banks to operate in this space [6]. - The central bank remains cautious about the development of virtual currencies, particularly stablecoins, due to their potential financial risks and regulatory challenges [7]. Credit Repair Policies - The People's Bank of China is researching policies to support individuals in repairing their credit records, particularly for those who have defaulted due to the pandemic but have since repaid their debts [8]. Macro-Prudential Management Framework - China has made significant progress in establishing a macro-prudential management framework since the 2008 financial crisis, focusing on systemic risk prevention and enhancing financial stability [10][12]. - The framework includes various measures such as differentiated reserve requirements and a macro-prudential assessment (MPA) system to link credit growth with financial stability [13]. Future Directions - The People's Bank of China aims to enhance the macro-prudential management system by improving the monitoring of systemic financial risks, reinforcing regulations for systemically important financial institutions, and addressing international financial market risks [14][15][16]. - The central bank plans to expand its toolkit for macro-prudential management, ensuring a comprehensive approach to financial stability [18]. Governance and Coordination - A macro-prudential and financial stability committee has been established to enhance coordination among various financial regulatory bodies, ensuring a unified approach to managing financial risks [19].

党的十九大提出，健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架。近年来，中国人民银行有序推进，取 得重要进展。刚刚召开的党的二十届四中全会进一步提出，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的 宏观审慎管理体系。 21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 10月27日下午，以"创新、变革、重塑下的全球金融发展"为主题的2025金融 街论坛年会在京开幕。会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜以"中国宏观审慎管理体系的建设实践与未来演 进"发表演讲。 在去年6月份的陆家嘴论坛上，潘功胜对中国未来货币政策框架的演进作了比较系统的介绍。在2025金 融街论坛开幕式上，潘功胜对中国宏观审慎管理体系的演进方向进行了深入阐释。 潘功胜坦言，比较来看，货币政策是中央银行传统职责，制度框架比较清晰成熟；宏观审慎管理全球虽 然也有不少实践，但起步不久，仍处于不断探索和完善的过程中。在构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系 方面，人民银行主要有以下四大重点工作方向：一是更好覆盖宏观经济运行和金融风险的关联性；二是 更好覆盖金融市场的运行；三是更好覆盖系统重要性金融机构；四是更好覆盖国际经济和金融市场风险 的外溢影响。 记者了解到，夯实系统重要性金融机构附加监管将是央行完善宏 ...