西班牙《机密报》 2025 年 12 月 29 日文章，原题：这 4 个词精准概括 2025 年的全球局势 时光犹如白驹过 隙，在这辞旧迎新之际，回首过去的一年，国际局势急剧变化，笔者选择了4个关键词来概括风云变幻 的2025年——稀土、监管、关税和泡沫。这4个词从多维度共同勾勒出世界从传统地缘政治博弈向"技术 —资源—规则"复合竞争转型的复杂图景，标志着"硬实力"角逐在数字时代的强势回归，也在一定程度 上预测2026年年初全球格局的主要走向。 稀土成为竞争焦点 稀土已成为大国战略竞争的焦点。稀土是制造电动汽车电池、电机磁体、风力涡轮机以及许多电子设备 的关键金属。2025年，全球稀土供应链的安全性与韧性上升至国家安全高度。美国在二战后开始开采稀 土，它也是美国许多战略性产业的命脉。为提振稀土产业，美国政府联合众多银行和基金，发起大规模 公共投资浪潮，推动本土供应链建设，甚至将地缘战略考量与稀土资源直接挂钩。 美国在全球关键矿产市场上的频频出手，让欧盟有些坐不住，随之启动相关资源自主计划，希望到2030 年末，欧盟成员国的矿产资源自给率（某一地区或国家所生产的原材料能够满足其自身需求或生产所需 的比率——编者 ...

（来源：吴说） 作者：@agintender 当 BUSD 被推上历史舞台，它承载的不只是合规叙事，更是币安试图用高压手段重塑稳定币秩序的野 心——通过强制汇率、合并交易对，把竞争对手的深度直接吞进自己的账本。 2022 年的"自动转换"，是一场教科书级别的闪击战；而 2023 年情人节的监管铁拳，则让这个看似无懈 可击的帝国瞬间崩塌。双生的 BUSD 、影子般的 Binance-Peg 、监管边界的错位，共同构成了它的阿喀 琉斯之踵。 但故事并未就此结束。 从 FDUSD 到 BFUSD ，再到 United Stables （ $U ），币安并未放弃稳定币，而是在失败中进化，从霸 权式统一转向聚合式吞噬，甚至提前为 AI 经济铺路。 这是一篇关于稳定币的文章，更是一部交易所权力如何试图驯服市场、又被监管反噬的商战纪实。 第一章：热血与霸权—— BUSD 的"大一统"往事 BUSD 的故事不仅仅是合规产品的兴衰，更是一段关于交易所如何试图通过行政手段统一市场流动性 的"帝王术"。 链接：https://x.com/agintender/status/2001865496464101733 声明：本文为转载内 ...

"稳定币和央行数字货币并非零和"，黄益平在 2025 夏季达沃斯访谈中提出，两者可在不同场景互补：CBDC 侧重法偿性与监管可控，适合大额、跨境及公 共支付；合规稳定币则依托市场机制，满足零售与链上生态需求。他建议，可在香港先行试点"盯住离岸人民币"的稳定币，既为境外人民币资产提供链上结 算工具，也为内地资本项目未完全开放留出"风险隔离墙"。 【邀请诺贝尔奖、图灵奖得主、两院院士、各行业专家，请联系五洲名家智库】 1957 年生于浙江的黄益平，拥有澳大利亚国立大学经济学博士，是北京大学国家发展研究院教授、院长，两度被任命为中国人民银行货币政策委员会委员 （2015—2018、2024—至今），并兼任中国金融四十人论坛学术委员会主席、北京大学数字金融研究中心主任。丰富的政策咨询与海外投行经历，使他对数 字货币、宏观金融与监管科技始终保持前沿视角。 数字货币：全球货币体系重构的"增量变量" 黄益平指出，数字货币并非短期风口，而是"正在改写支付、清算与储备资产规则"的增量变量。全球九成以上的虚拟资产交易已借助稳定币完成，而 90% 的稳定币与美元挂钩，"这相当于在现有跨境支付系统之外，再建一条由私营机构主导的美元清 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin's price dropping below $87,000 and a cumulative decline of over 31% since its peak in October [1][2]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell to $86,680, marking a 24-hour decline of 5.14% and a monthly drop of nearly 20% [1]. - Ethereum's price decreased to $2,839, with a 24-hour decline of 5.67% and a monthly drop of 25.37% [1]. - Ripple's price fell to $2.04, with a 24-hour drop of 6.9% [1]. - Binance Coin and DOGE also experienced declines of 6.03% and 7.98%, respectively [1]. Causes of the Downturn - The primary driver of the downturn is the marginal tightening of macro liquidity, with the U.S. Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts and the U.S. Treasury withdrawing approximately $200 billion from market liquidity due to government shutdowns [2]. - The market structure is fragile, with insufficient buying support and a recent trend of net outflows exceeding $1 billion from Bitcoin ETFs [2]. - Regulatory pressures and negative market sentiment have further exacerbated the situation, with recent statements from the People's Bank of China reiterating that cryptocurrency activities are illegal [2]. Leverage and Market Volatility - The use of leveraged contracts has amplified the volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with over 190,000 liquidations occurring in a single day, totaling approximately $553 million [3]. - High leverage can lead to significant losses, as even a 10% price drop can wipe out margin for leveraged positions [3]. - The cascading effect of liquidations can create a vicious cycle of selling and further price declines [3]. Future Outlook - The cryptocurrency market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the medium to long-term outlook dependent on liquidity conditions [4]. - Regulatory trends are moving towards stricter oversight, particularly in China, where cryptocurrency activities are deemed illegal [4]. - Market participants are advised to treat high-leverage trading as a professional tool rather than a personal speculative strategy [4].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve plans to significantly reduce the scope of regulatory oversight on bank safety and soundness, raising market concerns [1] - Trump hinted that the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair has been determined, expressing frustration over the resistance faced in dismissing Powell [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that Trump may announce the nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas [1] Group 2 - Richmond Fed President Barkin supports Powell's view that a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion [3] - Fed Governor Barr expressed concerns that loosening regulations could lead to risk accumulation, potentially setting the stage for future crises [3] - Political uncertainty in the UK has increased, with nearly half of Labour Party voters wanting leader Starmer to step down before the next election, according to a Times poll [3] Group 3 - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Pill, emphasized that persistent inflation above target should not be overlooked, with expectations for inflation to gradually decline [3] - The Monetary Policy Committee believes that the neutral interest rate level is between 2% and 4% [3] - Japanese government economic strategy advisors indicated that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates before March next year [3] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda and other officials held a meeting to discuss economic policy, with Ueda suggesting a gradual approach to adjusting monetary easing [3]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant crash reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, with Bitcoin's price plummeting 13.5% in 24 hours, leading to a loss of $19.3 billion in market value and affecting 1.6 million investors [3][4] - The crash highlighted the vulnerabilities of high leverage in the crypto market, as well as a crisis of trust in stablecoins, particularly USDe, which saw a 38% de-pegging during the turmoil [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The catalyst for the crash was a policy statement from Trump threatening a "100% tariff," which triggered a global sell-off of risk assets and amplified fear in the crypto market [3] - The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index surged to 0.78, indicating a strong link between crypto and traditional equities during the downturn [3] - The market was characterized by a high leverage rate of 38%, with retail investors averaging 10x leverage, leading to forced liquidations with a mere 5% price drop [4] Group 2: Stablecoin Issues - USDe, a synthetic dollar, failed to maintain its peg due to a liquidity crisis, dropping to $0.62, exposing its structural weaknesses [4] - The reliance on volatile collateral like WBETH for USDe created a "death spiral" effect when the underlying assets devalued [4] - The lack of regulatory oversight allowed large investors to exploit vulnerabilities in the USDe mechanism, raising concerns about the stability of stablecoins [4] Group 3: Historical Context - The crash parallels previous market events, such as the March 2020 Bitcoin crash and the May 2021 FTX collapse, reinforcing the notion that high leverage leads to market failures [4] - The cryptocurrency market continues to exhibit a dual nature of prosperity and fragility, with Bitcoin's market cap exceeding $2.2 trillion while its trading volume remains a fraction of traditional markets [4] Group 4: Industry Reflections - The incident serves as a lesson for investors to avoid high leverage, with 80% of the $19.3 billion in liquidations attributed to speculative behavior [4] - Platforms are urged to enhance risk management practices, with Binance implementing price threshold protections to mitigate de-pegging risks [4] - Regulatory efforts are underway, with the CFTC proposing new margin rules for crypto derivatives to limit excessive leverage [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is showing signs of division, with some investors looking to capitalize on the dip while others are shorting altcoins amid panic selling [4] - The ongoing de-pegging of USDe raises alarms about the future stability of the crypto market, emphasizing the need for better risk awareness among participants [4]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing varied trends across different currency pairs, with specific attention on the movements of GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD, as well as upcoming economic data releases from the US and Europe [1][2][10]. Group 1: Currency Trends - GBP/USD is showing a bearish to neutral trend, with a need for confirmation of upward momentum despite recent price rebounds [1][7]. - USD/JPY is facing short-term resistance at 148.84, with potential for further upward movement if this level is breached [1][7]. - EUR/USD is fluctuating within a range of 1.1700-1.1780, indicating a slight increase in market volatility without a clear trend direction [1][8]. - AUD/USD has recently broken above a previous high, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend if it maintains above 0.6610 [1][9]. Group 2: Economic Insights - Federal Reserve officials emphasize the need for a tight monetary policy to combat inflation, with varying opinions on the labor market's impact on interest rate decisions [2]. - The Bank of England's deputy governor suggests there is room for further rate cuts, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [5]. - The European Central Bank's chief economist indicates a moderate inflation outlook, suggesting a willingness to keep rates unchanged for the time being [4]. - Brazil's central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 15.00% through the end of 2025, aligning with previous forecasts [2]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases to watch include the US August JOLTs job openings, September consumer confidence index, and various European economic indicators [10].

Regulatory Focus - Chinese regulators are pushing for leading domestic chip manufacturers to list on the mainland stock exchanges [1] - The aim is to better control the types of investors who can purchase shares in these strategically important companies [1] - Regulators have concerns about chipmakers' Hong Kong IPOs due to difficulties in identifying the actual backers of international investors [1] Company Actions - Changxin Memory Technologies (长鑫储存) adjusted its Hong Kong IPO to an A-share listing following regulatory advice [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gemini's IPO submission to the SEC is seen as a significant event indicating the recovery of the cryptocurrency industry, following in the footsteps of Coinbase and Kraken [1][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Gemini was founded in 2014 by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, who gained fame for their lawsuit against Facebook [3][22]. - The company has established itself as one of the first regulated cryptocurrency exchanges in the U.S., collaborating with regulatory bodies to create a clear compliance framework [22][25]. - As of 2021, Gemini's valuation reached $7.1 billion, with the twins holding at least 75% of the shares [23]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The financial disclosures reveal a significant revenue drop to $67.9 million in the first half of 2025, with a net loss widening to $282.5 million [5]. - Despite the financial challenges, analysts predict that Gemini could achieve profitability by 2026, driven by revenue diversification post-IPO [8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - The market reaction to Gemini's IPO is polarized, with some analysts optimistic about its growth potential in a regulatory-friendly environment, while others caution against high valuation risks and increasing competition [5][6]. - The company faces multiple risks, including regulatory uncertainties, market volatility, and cybersecurity threats, which could impact its operations and profitability [6][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The success of Gemini's IPO will depend on macroeconomic conditions and the company's execution capabilities, particularly if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [8]. - The company aims to position itself as the "JPMorgan of crypto," focusing on institutional services and expanding into the NFT market and metaverse payments [8][10]. - The IPO is expected to have a ripple effect in the crypto ecosystem, potentially accelerating IPOs from stablecoin issuers and increasing competition among custodial giants [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The explosion at Shandong Youdao Chemical Co., Ltd. resulted in 10 fatalities, 2 missing persons, and 19 injuries, highlighting significant safety and management failures within the company [2][4]. Group 1: Incident Overview - The explosion occurred on May 27, leading to immediate government oversight and investigation [2]. - Initial investigations revealed that the explosion was caused by defects in the production technology of 2-nitro-3-methylbenzoic acid, compounded by the use of substandard raw materials [2][4]. Group 2: Technical and Management Failures - The incident exposed inherent risks associated with continuous flow technology, which, while efficient, requires stringent safety measures that were not adequately maintained [4]. - The company failed to conduct necessary equipment maintenance, with aging seals on critical reactors posing direct risks of gas leaks [5]. - A significant lack of safety training was identified, with 80% of operators lacking specialized training in fine chemical risks [5]. Group 3: Regulatory and Environmental Impact - Regulatory failures were noted, including insufficient expertise among safety personnel and a lack of real-time monitoring systems, which delayed emergency responses [5]. - The environmental impact of the explosion extended beyond the factory, with pollutants exceeding safe levels, raising concerns among local residents and prompting calls for the closure of the chemical park [5]. Group 4: Management Changes - Following the incident, there was a significant management shakeup, with the resignation of the former chairman Zhang Bensong and the appointment of Shang Xianpeng as the new chairman [6]. - The management changes have raised questions about accountability and the effectiveness of merely changing leadership without addressing underlying issues [7]. Group 5: Recommendations for Improvement - The company is urged to address fundamental safety issues rather than relying on personnel changes as a crisis management strategy [7]. - Recommendations include rectifying technological flaws, updating aging equipment, enforcing operational protocols, and implementing comprehensive training for all employees [7].