Summary of the Brokerage Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The brokerage sector is benefiting from a market recovery, with most brokerages reporting a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 40% in recent performance announcements. Some companies, such as Huaxi Securities and Guolian Minsheng, have even reported growth rates exceeding 1,000% [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Catalysts for Future Growth**: - Expected policy releases, inflow of medium to long-term funds, and adjustments in insurance asset assessment systems are identified as potential catalysts for the brokerage sector. A significant influx of funds is anticipated from a 30% allocation of new insurance premiums to A-shares in the second half of the year [3]. - The implementation of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong on August 1, along with the upgrade of Guotai Junan's international license and the issuance of tokenized securities by GF Securities, may positively impact brokerage operations [1][3]. - **Mergers and Acquisitions**: - The progress of mergers and acquisitions has been slow in the first half of the year, but acceleration is expected in the second half. Increased consolidation among large companies is anticipated to enhance industry competitiveness [5]. - **International Business Growth**: - The Hong Kong market has seen rapid growth in IPOs and trading volumes, benefiting brokerages with significant international business exposure, such as CICC, CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, Haitong Securities, and Huatai Securities. GF Securities is accelerating its international business development through capital increases, while China Galaxy's expansion in Southeast Asia is showing results [6]. - **Refinancing Trends**: - Several brokerages, including Tianfeng Securities, Nanjing Securities, and Dongwu Securities, have restarted their private placement plans, indicating a gradual easing of refinancing restrictions that had been in place due to a contraction in equity financing over the past few years [7][8]. - **Market Environment and Financing**: - The current market environment is showing signs of loosening in financing conditions, with a requirement for state-owned capital participation of no less than 50%. The overall low valuation of brokerages suggests smoother competition and acquisition logic as the market recovers [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Valuation Discrepancies**: - Hong Kong brokerages are currently undervalued, with companies like Dongfang Securities trading at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of only 0.7 to 0.8. In contrast, A-share brokerages are expected to see an overall increase in valuation, with CICC's Hong Kong PB at approximately 1.3 and A-share PB ranging from 1.5 to 1.6 [11]. - **Recommendations for Investment**: - The report recommends focusing on GF Securities due to its low valuation and significant business improvements, including wealth management and international business expansion. Other notable companies include CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and Haitong Securities, which have shown strong performance during ETF fund inflows [9]. - **Outlook on Small and Internet Brokerages**: - Smaller brokerages like China Galaxy have shown high growth rates over the past two years and are worth monitoring. Internet-based companies such as Honghua Tree and Guiding Compass also exhibit significant investment potential [10]. - **Overall Sector Assessment**: - The brokerage sector is currently viewed as undervalued, particularly in the A-share market, with signs of marginal improvement in performance and business operations. The potential catalysts from stablecoin developments and industry restructuring warrant close attention [12].

Group 1: Fund Performance and Trends - In Q2 2025, the overall scale of fixed income + funds experienced net subscriptions, with significant growth in primary and secondary bond funds, while convertible bond fund scale decreased noticeably[1] - The overall allocation of fixed income + funds reduced the proportion of equity-related positions, increasing allocations to bonds and cash assets, with only flexible allocation funds increasing stock and convertible bond positions[1] - The overall position of public funds in convertible bonds slightly decreased by 0.08 percentage points, while fixed income + funds saw a decline of 0.54 percentage points, with convertible bond funds increasing by 0.77 percentage points[2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation - The convertible bond index reached new highs in Q2, but overall positions declined due to significant exits from convertible bond scales and a cautious approach from funds amid high valuations[2] - Fixed income + funds continued to overweight basic chemicals, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and transportation, while underweighting financial bonds and environmental sectors[2] - The concentration of holdings in fixed income + funds decreased, indicating a more diversified approach in asset allocation[3] Group 3: Convertible Bond Fund Insights - Despite a net redemption state in convertible bond funds, performance remained strong, with an increased allocation to equity-related and balanced products, particularly in AI-related sectors[3] - Non-financial heavy positions included significant increases in pork, electronics, chemicals, and military industries, while solar bonds saw a reduction in allocation[3] - The top individual bonds increased in six categories, including computing-related, pharmaceutical, military, low-cycle small-cap, and high-rated electronic and chemical bonds[4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the entry of Jingwei Tiandi into the stablecoin market, highlighting its new mobile application "Fopay" aimed at providing a one-stop payment platform based on stablecoin technology, which has positively impacted the company's stock price [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jingwei Tiandi, established in 2021 and headquartered in Zhuhai, primarily develops telecommunications network performance analysis software and has expanded into ICT integration services [3]. - The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January 2024 [3]. Group 2: New Business Initiative - On July 21, 2025, Jingwei Tiandi announced the launch of its financial technology business segment with the mobile application "Fopay," which focuses on stablecoin-based payment solutions [3]. - The company aims to leverage the growing regulatory framework for stablecoins globally to facilitate seamless transactions and explore new business opportunities [3][4]. Group 3: Market Context - The board believes that the electronic commerce, cross-border trade, and mobile payment sectors are rapidly growing and are key drivers of economic growth in Asia, particularly in Hong Kong [4]. - The favorable market environment in Hong Kong, characterized by robust infrastructure and a large digital user base, is seen as advantageous for the development of payment services and fintech [4]. Group 4: Shareholder Dynamics - In 2023, Hengfeng International Holdings became the controlling shareholder of Jingwei Tiandi through two share transfers, acquiring a significant stake in the company [6][8]. - Qian Fenglei, the founder and CEO of Hengfeng International, joined the board of Jingwei Tiandi and has a background in investment management and technology [7][8]. Group 5: Stock Performance - Following Qian Fenglei's involvement, Jingwei Tiandi's stock price surged from below HKD 3 to a peak of HKD 26.65, reflecting a significant increase over five months [8].

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Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate is expected to slow down to 2.3% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.9% in the previous year, marking the lowest level in 17 years excluding recession years [1][11] - Factors contributing to this slowdown include rising trade policy uncertainties due to de-globalization, tightening financial conditions in some countries, and a balanced labor market in the US and Europe leading to a decrease in wage growth [1][11] Inflation Trends - Major economies are experiencing relatively high and sticky inflation rates, with June core CPI year-on-year rates at 2.9% for the US, 2.3% for the Eurozone, and 3.4% for Japan [2][15] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates four times this year, while the Federal Reserve remains in a pause phase regarding rate cuts [2][16] Currency Market Dynamics - The global currency market is characterized by high risk-free interest rates and a divergence between the US dollar and non-US currencies, with the dollar index declining by 9.7% year-to-date as of July 21 [3][18] - Non-US currencies have generally appreciated, with notable increases of 12.9% for the Euro and 6.6% for the Japanese Yen [3][18] Asset Performance - The performance of global assets reflects expectations of preventive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and fiscal expansion in Europe, with the Nasdaq and DAX indices rising by 8.6% and 22.1% respectively [3][20] - Gold prices have increased by 29.2% due to high deficit rates in Western economies and geopolitical factors [3][20] Economic Growth Projections - For the second half of 2025, the US GDP is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.5%, with quarterly growth rates of 2.1%, 0.7%, and 1.2% [4][24] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.7% in the second half, while Japan's GDP growth is projected to decline to 0.5% [4][27] Inflation Forecasts - Inflation rates are expected to diverge among major economies, with US core CPI projected to rise from 2.9% to 3.3% by the fourth quarter, while Eurozone inflation is expected to decrease to around 1.9% [5][29] - Japan's inflation is likely to remain above 2%, driven by labor shortages and rising wages [5][30] Monetary Policy Challenges - Central banks face the dual challenge of balancing inflation and growth, with the Federal Reserve expected to initiate rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2025 [6][32] - The ECB is anticipated to lower rates further, while the Bank of Japan may also consider a rate hike depending on economic conditions [6][34] Impact of US Legislation - The "Beautiful America Act" is projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion from 2025 to 2034, while tariffs are expected to generate about $2.8 trillion in revenue [7][35] - The act is estimated to boost US GDP by an average of 0.5% over the next decade, with potential for higher growth if tax reforms are successful [7][35] Dollar Index Trends - The dollar is expected to weaken in the medium term due to tariff impacts and changing global supply chains, with potential for short-term rebounds based on economic data or geopolitical events [8][40] - A weaker dollar could benefit US companies with significant overseas revenue, as approximately 41% of S&P 500 companies' income comes from international markets [8][44] Corporate Earnings Outlook - The weakening dollar is likely to enhance the profitability of US companies with substantial foreign earnings, contributing approximately 0.4-0.5 percentage points to overall EPS for each percentage point of dollar depreciation [8][44] - The overall earnings growth for US companies is expected to outpace economic growth in the second half of 2025, driven by favorable currency effects and supportive fiscal policies [8][46]

策略报告 | 投资策略 静待 7 月政治局会议 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置周观察 海内外政策要闻 国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。国务院总理李强7 月16日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。 会议指出，做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。会议强调，有关部 门要进一步优化政策设计，认真听取各方面意见建议，积极帮助地方和企业解决 困难、促进发展，齐心协力推动经济持续向好。 全国政协召开2025年上半年宏观经济形势分析座谈会。政协主席王沪宁表示，今 年以来，面对国际环境复杂多变、不稳定性不确定性增加的复杂局面，以习近平 同志为核心的中共中央加强对经济工作的全面领导，坚持稳中求进工作总基调， 全面贯彻新发展理念，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放， 着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。 美国国会通过"稳定币"法案。当地时间7月17日，美国国会众议院以308票赞 成、122票反对的结果通过了《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（Genius Act），旨在对加密货币监管进行重大立法改革。随后7月18日，美国总统特朗普 在白宫正式签署，标志着 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the introduction of the GENIUS Act by former President Trump, which establishes a regulatory framework for USD stablecoins, linking them 1:1 with the US dollar, and aims to expand the stablecoin market significantly [3][6] - The stablecoin market is projected to grow substantially, with the current market size at $260 billion, providing a more efficient tool for cross-border payments [3] - The mechanism of USD stablecoins allows for price stabilization through minting and redeeming processes, which can prevent volatility typically associated with cryptocurrencies [6][8] Group 2 - The article draws parallels between stablecoins and historical foreign exchange vouchers, such as those used in East Germany and Cuba, highlighting their roles in managing currency and economic stability [10][12][16] - The issuance of stablecoins by companies like JD Group and Ant Group indicates a growing trend in the adoption of stablecoins in various markets, reflecting a shift towards digital currency solutions [8][21] - The article emphasizes that while stablecoins may resemble foreign exchange vouchers, they are fundamentally different as they are rooted in blockchain technology, which enhances transaction transparency and regulatory oversight [6][20]

Core Viewpoint - Citadel Securities urges the SEC to slow down the regulation of tokenized securities, warning that this emerging financial tool may unexpectedly impact traditional capital markets [1][2] Group 1: Concerns about Tokenized Securities - Citadel highlights that tokenized securities could divert funds from an already weak IPO market, providing private companies with an alternative financing channel [1][3] - The company expresses concern that tokenized securities may create new liquidity pools that institutional investors, due to risk management policies or fiduciary duties, cannot participate in [3] - The absence of institutional investors could affect market depth and price discovery efficiency [3] Group 2: Regulatory Approach - Citadel emphasizes the need for the SEC to advance tokenization through formal rule-making processes rather than hastily relaxing regulations [1][4] - The recent regulatory victory for the digital asset industry, with the stablecoin legislation coming into effect, underscores the importance of balancing innovation and regulatory caution [4] Group 3: Support for Tokenized Securities - Supporters of tokenized securities envision a more efficient trading environment, enabling 24/7 trading, instant settlement, and enhanced liquidity [5] - Digital asset trading platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood view tokenized securities as an opportunity to expand their service offerings and attract more users [6]

Industry Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Station has officially commenced construction with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion RMB, which is expected to benefit the equipment manufacturing industry significantly [2] - The estimated annual procurement of construction machinery for the project is around 24 billion RMB, accounting for 2-3% of China's annual construction machinery output value, which is estimated to be around 900 billion RMB [2] - The demand for construction machinery is anticipated to be higher than the 2-3% estimate during the early stages of the project cycle [2] Company Specifics - Companies expected to benefit from the project include SANY Heavy Industry (600031 CH), Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH), and Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK / 000157 CH), all rated as "Buy" [4] - Power engineering contractors such as China Power Construction (601669 CH) and China Energy Engineering (3996 HK / 601868 CH) are also expected to gain from the project [4] - In the power equipment sector, manufacturers like Dongfang Electric (1072 HK / 600875 CH) and Harbin Electric (1133 HK) are projected to see significant benefits [4] - Regional cement companies, particularly Tibet Tianlu (600326 CH) and Huaxin Cement (6655 HK / 600801 CH), are likely to benefit from increased regional demand [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the financial technology ETF Huaxia (516100), which has seen a slight decline of 0.22% amid a strong market trend, with significant fluctuations in its constituent stocks [1] - The financial technology ETF Huaxia has recently experienced a continuous capital inflow, accumulating 268 million in the past five days, reaching a new high of over 1 billion in total product scale since its inception [1] - A strategic partnership was formed between AI company Fourth Paradigm and fixed-income fintech platform Jiuyang Technology, aimed at developing a stablecoin asset management solution to enhance compliance and security in the stablecoin investment sector [1] Group 2 - The financial technology ETF Huaxia (516100) closely tracks the CSI Financial Technology Theme Index, which includes major players in software development, internet finance, and the digital currency industry, with a stablecoin content of 23.43%, the highest in the market [2] - The index comprises leading stocks such as Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, Runhe Software, and Hengsheng Electronics, as well as popular stablecoin stocks like Dongxin Pinghe and Yingshisheng, facilitating investors' access to stablecoin and digital currency concepts [2]