投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-16 通胀符合预期，贵⾦属短线延续震荡 美国6⽉CPI数据同环⽐皆有回升，但幅度符合预期，基数效应较低、能源 价格阶段性回升以及关税传导的部分体现共同推升通胀，数据公布后降息 预期变动不⼤，美元及美债收益率短线⾛⾼，对贵⾦属价格形成⼀定压 制。短期⻩⾦预计维持区间震荡，中⻓期看多观点不变。⽩银在40美元关 ⼝受阻后，短线震荡回落。中期维持对⽩银趋势看多，弹性谨慎的观点。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月未季调CPI同比升2.7%，为2月以来新高，预期升2. 7%，前值升2.4%；季调后CPI环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0. 1%。未季调核心CPI同比升2.9%，预期升3.0%，前值升2.8%；季调后 核心CPI环比升0.2%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.1%。 2）美国7月纽约联储制造业指数5.5，预期-9，前值-16。其中，制造 业就业指数9.2，前值增4.7；制造业新订单指数2.0，前值-14.2； 制造业物价获得指数25.7，前值26.6。 3）美国财政部长贝森特建议，美联储主席鲍威尔在2026年5月卸任时 同时 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in US CPI data has led to a rebound in inflation, providing support for the gold market amid ongoing trade tariff policies from Trump [2] - The spot gold market experienced fluctuations after the CPI data release, with a low of $3320.22 per ounce and a closing price of $3324.65 per ounce [2] - Current trading in the Asian market is stable, with gold prices hovering around $3330.00 per ounce, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The spot gold market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a trading range identified between $3321.00 and $3332.00, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [3] - If the market breaks below $3321.00, a short position may be considered with target levels set at $3311.00 to $3301.00 per ounce [3] - Conversely, if the market breaks above $3332.00, a long position could be initiated with target levels aimed at $3342.00 to $3352.00 per ounce [3] Group 3 - The spot silver market is also in a consolidation phase, with a trading range identified between $37.560 and $37.850, allowing for a similar buy low and sell high strategy [5] - A break below $37.560 could prompt the establishment of short positions, targeting price levels of $37.100 to $36.800 per ounce [5] - If the market successfully breaks above $37.850, long positions may be pursued with target levels of $38.100 to $38.400 per ounce [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the upcoming US copper tariff and the current off - season, while being affected by the tight copper raw material situation[2]. - The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term because of the potential increase in aluminum ingot supply and the off - season downstream demand[4]. - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend overall, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under the pressure of weak domestic consumption[5]. - The zinc price is expected to be bearish in the medium - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show an oscillating trend in the short term influenced by market sentiment[6]. - The tin price is predicted to oscillate weakly in the short term as supply and demand are balanced with the strengthening expectation of Myanmar's tin mine复产[7]. - The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels as the valuation of nickel price relative to nickel - iron has risen to a relatively high level[8]. - The lithium carbonate price may face pressure as supply is expected to remain high despite short - term rebounds[9]. - The alumina price is expected to be shorted at high levels considering the over - capacity situation, with the ore price as the core factor[11]. - The stainless steel market is in an off - season with limited demand and reduced trading activity[13]. - The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance due to the off - season and large spot - futures price difference[16]. Summaries by Metals Copper - Market performance: LME copper closed up 0.15% to $9657/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78070 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110475 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 11.4%. The domestic Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 50000 tons[2]. - Outlook: The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 77200 - 78600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9500 - 9720/ton[2]. Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum closed down 0.52% to $2583/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20390 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 9000 hands to 636000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 70000 tons[4]. - Outlook: The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20550 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2550 - 2610/ton[4]. Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.88% to 16946 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $28.5 to $1988.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 60000 tons[5]. - Outlook: The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited under weak domestic consumption[5]. Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.73% to 22070 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $27.5 to $2711.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 93100 tons[6]. - Outlook: The zinc price is bearish in the medium - long term and may oscillate in the short term[6]. Tin - Market performance: The tin price oscillated. The combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 54.07%. The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9644 tons as of July 11, 2025[7]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price operating in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton and LME tin price in the range of $31000 - 35000/ton[7]. Nickel - Market performance: The nickel price rebounded at night. The main contradiction lies in the stainless - steel production line. The nickel - iron production profit is extremely low, and the ore price has weakened recently[8]. - Outlook: The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the Shanghai nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the corresponding range[8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed up 1.26%. The LC2509 contract closed up 0.27%[9]. - Outlook: The lithium carbonate price may face pressure, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract operating in the range of 64800 - 68200 yuan/ton[9]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 0.61% to 3143 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Guizhou and Shanxi increased. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 6900 tons to 25500 tons[11]. - Outlook: The alumina price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton[11]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12695 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The social inventory increased to 1167500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 3.12%[13]. - Outlook: The stainless - steel market is in an off - season with limited demand[13]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract fell 0.08% to 19790 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price remained flat, and the inventory in three regions increased by 900 tons to 27600 tons[15][16]. - Outlook: The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance[16].

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market is a growing concern over tariffs leading to increased inflation, which has prompted investors to increase their bearish bets on U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 30-year bonds, which have seen yields surpass 5% [1][5] - A significant increase in bearish positions has been noted, with traders betting that the 30-year Treasury yield will rise to approximately 5.3% within about five weeks, with total premiums for related options reaching $10 million [3] - The options market is reflecting a pessimistic outlook, with a surge in demand for hedging against rising yields and further selling of long-term bonds, as indicated by the highest level of option premiums in a month [4] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has recently exceeded 5%, marking a new high since early June, indicating a return to the high range of long-term interest rates for the year [5] - The skew indicator for the 30-year Treasury bonds has sharply shifted towards bearish options premiums over the past week, indicating a lack of meaningful incremental demand to support long-term bonds despite higher yields [6] - The municipal bond market has also faced significant pressure, with the benchmark yield for 10-year municipal bonds rising by 8 basis points to 3.25%, continuing the downward trend seen in Treasury bonds [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year benchmark yield which rose by 4.80 basis points to 4.4813% before dropping to a daily low of 4.3915% following the release of the U.S. CPI inflation data [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield experienced significant volatility, testing levels before rebounding to a daily high of 4.4893% after initially declining [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield also increased by 4.00 basis points, closing at 3.9398%, with intraday trading occurring within a range of 3.8811% to 3.9587% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 5.0093%, marking the first increase since June 2, with an intraday rise of approximately 2.8 basis points [1] Group 1 - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by about 5 basis points, stabilizing near the intraday high of 3.9524% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.6 basis points, reaching a new intraday high of 4.4713% [1] - Prior to the release of U.S. CPI data and the opening of the U.S. stock market, the 30-year yield had dipped to a low of 4.9306% [1]

至于数据对市场的具体影响，LPL Financial首席固定收益策略师劳伦斯·吉勒姆指出，市场参与者对CPI 数据的反应，将取决于商品领域中通胀压力的广度。"债券市场存在风险，如果我们确实看到通胀重新 加速，我们可能会因为错误的原因看到更高的收益率……如果美债收益率在通胀压力重新加速的背景下 走高，那么被定价的降息幅度可能会减少，这也可能渗透到股市……"吉勒姆说。 不过，他同时表示，"我认为，从通胀互换和盈亏平衡通胀率的走势来看，债券市场并不真正预期通胀 会重新加速。" 新华财经北京7月15日电美国国债收益率周一（7月14日）普遍上涨1BP左右，10年期美债收益率报 4.425%，2年期报3.896%。美国总统特朗普上周末宣布将自8月1日起对从欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别 征收30%关税，再度引发对通胀担忧。市场焦急等待将于周二公布的美国6月CPI数据。 分析师认为，在经历了几个月的低通胀之后，美国消费者6月份经历的物价涨幅可能略有加快，原因是 企业开始将与关税相关的进口商品成本上升转嫁给消费者。机构对经济学家的调查显示，预计不包括波 动较大的食品和能源成本在内的商品和服务价格将在6月上涨0.3%，达5个月来最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency devaluation, maintaining a stable and reasonable level for the RMB exchange rate [1][3]. Exchange Rate and Economic Context - The RMB has been appreciating against the USD, with the dollar index dropping from above 109 to around 97, a decline of 11% [2]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at over 4.8% but has recently retreated to about 4.4% [2]. - China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in Q1, and the market is expected to stabilize with a balanced international payment situation [3]. Bond Market and Investment Policies - The PBOC acknowledges that some small and medium-sized banks are adopting aggressive bond investment strategies, which can be reasonable within regulatory limits [4]. - Bond investments constitute a significant part of banks' assets, with loans and bonds making up 60% and 25% of total assets, respectively [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the bond market issued 44.3 trillion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, with net financing of 8.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 38.6% of the social financing increment [5]. Risk Management and Regulatory Oversight - The PBOC stresses the need for small and medium-sized banks to maintain a reasonable balance in bond investments, considering both returns and risks [5]. - The central bank will enhance market monitoring and share information on high-risk institutions with regulatory bodies to mitigate financial market risks [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market and its recovery dynamics, influenced by tariff negotiations and macroeconomic factors. Core Points and Arguments 1. The U.S. stock market has experienced one of the fastest recoveries in its history, with indices reaching new highs in less than three months following a significant drop due to tariff negotiations [1][4] 2. The non-U.S. global index has reached historical highs, indicating a potential market and economic model shift, reminiscent of significant changes observed in the early 1980s [3][5] 3. Historical patterns suggest that the non-U.S. global index peaks often precede peaks in the U.S. stock market, highlighting the interconnectedness of global markets [3][5] 4. The U.S. stock market's performance is increasingly influential on the non-U.S. global index, suggesting that the current market dynamics are indicative of a broader economic transition [3][5] 5. The "Big America" bill passed by Congress is expected to significantly increase the U.S. government's debt burden, potentially leading to long-term economic instability [9][10] 6. The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain around 7%, which is unusually high for a peacetime economy, raising concerns about future economic stability [10] 7. Despite the long-term concerns, the current liquidity conditions and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may support risk asset prices in the short term [11][12] 8. Investor sentiment is complex, with high stock holdings contrasting with bearish sentiment in surveys, indicating a potential disconnect in market psychology [13][15] 9. The potential for a technical rebound in the U.S. dollar is noted, as it has reached a critical support level after a prolonged period of weakness [19][20] 10. The worst-case scenario of the tariff war is believed to have passed, although uncertainty remains high due to ongoing negotiations and potential policy changes from the Trump administration [21][22] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The historical context of U.S. stock market cycles suggests that the current market may be entering a more volatile phase, with significant implications for investment strategies [6][7] 2. The analysis of the Chinese stock market indicates a downward trend, with limited foreign investment opportunities, which could impact global capital flows [8] 3. The discussion emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between long-term economic views and short-term trading strategies, particularly in light of current market conditions [15][26] 4. The tightening of monetary conditions in Hong Kong and its implications for market sentiment are also highlighted, suggesting a regional impact on investment flows [23][24] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and potential future developments.

Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The U.S. Labor Department reported a surprising drop in initial jobless claims to 227,000, below the Dow Jones estimate of 235,000, indicating resilience in the job market [3] - The four-week average of initial claims decreased from 241,500 to 235,500, further supporting the positive employment outlook [3] Treasury Yields - As of the latest close, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat at 3.86%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.35%, and the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.865% [1] - In the European market, the 10-year German bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points to 2.654%, while the 10-year Italian bond yield rose by 1.1 basis points to 3.593% [5] Trade and Tariff Implications - The Yale Budget Lab estimated that tariffs proposed by Trump could lead to an additional $2,400 in expenses for the average American household this year [3] - There is optimism regarding a potential tariff agreement between the EU and the U.S. to avoid additional import taxes [5] Federal Reserve and Political Dynamics - Criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified, with officials suggesting that the administration may be preparing to dismiss him [4] - Analysts warn that Powell's potential dismissal could negatively impact financial markets, as it may signal a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve [4] International Market Trends - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.4 basis points to 0.762% [6] - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in August, reducing the rate from 4.25% to 4.0% [5]