Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - In March, China's official foreign exchange reserves reached $32,406.65 billion, an increase of $13.441 billion month-on-month, primarily driven by exchange rate factors[1] - The positive contribution from exchange rates was significant, with the dollar index declining by 3.13% from the end of February, impacting reserves positively by approximately $60.625 billion[2] - The valuation effect negatively impacted reserves by about $4.73 billion due to falling European bond prices, leading to a net effect of approximately $55.901 billion on reserves[2] Group 2: Trade Environment and Currency Fluctuations - The short-term trade environment is identified as a core factor influencing exchange rates, with expectations of increased two-way volatility[3] - If trade tensions escalate with other major countries, they may devalue their currencies against the dollar, which could lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB[3] - Conversely, if major countries make concessions in trade negotiations, external pressures on China may increase, expanding the depreciation space for the RMB[3] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of the end of March, gold reserves stood at 7.37 million ounces, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases[4] - Gold reserves now account for 6.4% of total foreign exchange reserves, with expectations for further increases in this ratio[4] - Short-term outlook suggests a potential slight decline in gold prices due to unmet U.S. gold tariff expectations, but a long-term forecast predicts new highs by 2025 driven by central bank purchases[4]

作 者丨 唐婧 编 辑丨肖嘉 4月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2 0 2 5年3月末，我国外汇储备规模为3 2 4 0 7亿美元，较2月末上升1 3 4亿美元，升幅为0 . 4 2%。这 是我国外汇储备连续1 6个月站上3 . 2万亿美元大关，也是连续3个月出现环比回升。 国家外汇局表示，2 0 2 5年3月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、财政货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体下跌。 汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，一揽子存量政策和增量政策继续发力 显效，高质量发展扎实推进，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 多名受访专家告诉2 1世纪经济报道记者，在外部环境复杂多变的情况下，外汇储备充分发挥了国家经济金融安全的"稳定器"和"压舱石"作用， 已经帮助我国成功经受住了多轮外部冲击的考验，这一次也不会例外。 例如，汇管研究院副院长、对外经贸大学金融学院兼职教授、国际金融专家赵庆明告诉记者，我国外汇储备长期以来稳定在3万亿美元之上， 是全球第一大外汇储备国，远超排在第二的国家。如此雄厚的外汇储备资产，将继续维护我国经济和金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential restructuring of the global trading system, focusing on the implications of the U.S. dollar's strength and the possibility of a new international monetary framework, particularly in light of recent comments from President Trump regarding currency devaluation by trade partners [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Dollar and Currency Valuation - The U.S. dollar is considered overvalued due to its status as the world's primary reserve currency, which imposes costs on U.S. manufacturers and exporters [2][5]. - President Trump has criticized the devaluation of currencies like the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, asserting that such actions create an unfair disadvantage for the U.S. [2][5]. - The actual exchange rate of the dollar has strengthened, with the International Bank for Settlements indicating that the dollar's real exchange rate is at a high level compared to the pre-Plaza Accord period [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the Plaza Accord of 1985, which aimed to induce a depreciation of the dollar through coordinated intervention by major economies [5][6]. - The scale of the foreign exchange market has significantly increased since the Plaza Accord, complicating any potential coordinated intervention today [6][7]. - The historical context highlights that the intervention during the Plaza Accord involved approximately $10 billion, while recent interventions, such as Japan's, have reached much higher amounts, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Implications - Achieving a new agreement similar to the Plaza Accord would require participation from emerging economies, which presents significant challenges compared to the past [6][7]. - There is speculation that Trump may push for a weaker dollar through tariffs, which could lead to increased pressure on countries like Japan to adjust their monetary policies [7]. - The potential for a new monetary agreement, referred to as the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," remains uncertain, but if realized, it could have profound implications for the foreign exchange market and the global economy [1][7].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 1）2024Q3跨境资本流动格局与过去三个季度相似，外资继续净流入而内资继续净流出，只是跨境资本净流出规模转为扩大。2）2024Q3跨境资本净流出的主要驱 动因素是内资流出4200亿美元，达到2021Q1以来的最高水平。3）随着中美利差有所回升，外资直接投资由净流出转为净流入。4）外汇储备由回落转为增加940亿 美元，规模达到十年来第二高的水平，主要反映估值效应。 报告摘要 跨境资本净流出规模扩大，内资流出规模达2021年以来最高水平。 2024Q3跨境资本继续净流出，净流出额为1934亿美元。2024Q3跨境资本继续净流出，净流出1934亿美元。2024Q3跨境资本净流出的主要驱动因素是内资流出 4200亿美元，达到2021Q1以来的最高水平。哪些因素推动2024Q3内资流出规模明显扩大？一是汇率变化以及资产价格上涨令外汇储备因为估值效应而增长；二是 中国企业积极实施"走出去"战略，对外直接投资持续增加；三是中国投资者通过"港股通"和"基金互认"等渠道购买境外 ...

国家外汇管理局统计数据显示， 截至2025年2月末，我国外汇储备规模为32272亿美元，较1月末上升 182亿美元，升幅为0.57%。 中国央行连续第四个月增持黄金，环比增长0.22%。2月外汇储备规模上升。 3月7日周五，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示， 中国2月末黄金储备7361万盎司，1月末黄金储备为7345 万盎司，环比增长了0.22%。 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年2月，受主要经济体宏观政策和经济数据、主要央行货币政策预期等因素 影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外 汇储备规模上升。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 中信建投 此前表示，短期来看，关税明朗之前，黄金期现溢价波动或难完全平稳，跨市套利行或仍对 金价有支撑；中期来看，助推2024年金价的需求因素（央行购金持续强劲，亚洲私人部门黄金投资需求 扩容）在2025年持续性减弱，故2025年金价或从顺风期走向震荡期。 高盛 认为，通胀担忧和财政风险 ...