版在字版 "投研社" 思 辨 ・ 致 胜 2 0 2 5 下 半 年 投 研 会 暨 " 壹 评 级 " 首 次 发 布 7月11日， 一场备受关注的投研盛会即将启幕！第一财经将在此次活动中首次发布 "壹评级" 系 列产品 —— 作为第一财经推出的专业股票评价体系，它的亮相无疑将为投资者带来全新的参考 维度。 值得关注的是，这场精彩直播将于 7 月 11 日 18:10-19:20 准时开启，汇聚众多投研力量，为您剖析市场脉络与投资方向。 元 21,7 e vir a 评价 直磅首发 《思辨的力量》 内容 IP 《价值投研社》 7月11日 18:10-19:20 l 20 P 1858 63 同:1 第一财经全程直播 聚焦投资热点 与此同时， "思辨・致胜 2025 下半年投研会" 将聚焦当下投资热点，深入探讨一系列关键话 题： 思辨的力量 变与不变中寻找投资平衡点 老消费稳舵 新消费破浪 共赢还是更替？ 创新药的春天来了？ 中国创新药快速崛起的核心驱动力是什么？ 矛还是盾 如何看待高股息的未来？ 质变和量变 科技股的机会在何方？ 2025下半年如何稳中致胜？ 直播信息 ⚠ 温馨提示 当天的《公司与行业》节目 ...

Core Insights - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has released a new policy framework for the adjustment of the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance drug catalog, as well as the commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog [1][2] - The new policy signals a shift towards a collaborative pricing mechanism for innovative drugs, allowing commercial insurance companies to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical firms, which is expected to lower costs and expand coverage [2][3] Group 1: Policy Design and Market Impact - The newly introduced commercial insurance innovative drug catalog is expected to include around 20 to 30 drugs, filling gaps in the basic medical insurance catalog and enhancing overall coverage [1] - The commercial insurance innovative drug catalog emphasizes a negotiation mechanism, differing from the basic medical insurance catalog's negotiation process, indicating a more flexible approach to pricing [1][2] - The policy aims to benefit the public by increasing access to new and effective medications, allowing patients to enjoy greater reimbursement for innovative drugs [2] Group 2: Role of Commercial Insurance Companies - Commercial insurance companies will have the opportunity to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies, which is a significant shift from previous practices where they had limited bargaining power [2] - Different insurance companies will design various insurance products based on their payment capabilities, leading to a competitive environment and broader coverage options for consumers [2][3] - The NHSA will selectively invite experienced commercial insurance companies to participate in the negotiation process, ensuring that their input is considered in the final decisions [2] Group 3: Future Implications for Innovative Drugs - The dynamic nature of the drug catalog, which will be adjusted annually, suggests that more innovative drugs may be included in short-term health insurance plans, providing consumers with more choices [3] - Pharmaceutical companies can apply for inclusion in the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog independently or alongside the basic catalog, enhancing their market opportunities [3] - The integration of the basic drug catalog with the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog will be strengthened, impacting how drugs are priced, demanded, and reimbursed in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market has seen a breakthrough above 3500 points, which is generally positive, but investors may not be profiting due to various factors affecting their strategies [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The index is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with significant movements in heavyweight stocks, particularly in the banking sector, which may attract funds away from other sectors [2]. - There are signs of capital outflow from high-performing sectors, such as the digital currency concept, indicating potential downward trends despite some stocks showing resilience [2]. - The innovative drug sector is undergoing a rotation, with many stocks at the bottom starting to see upward movement, but overall adjustments are expected due to high profit-taking levels [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The domestic computing sector, particularly Jiangnan, remains a favorable investment opportunity, while the semiconductor industry is also viewed positively, although performance may be delayed until mid to late July [2].

文/杨娜娜 1、"选择一个处在上行期或者机会满满的行业，投资就先赢了一半。" 2、"创新药研究必须立足坚实数据，优质数据最终将兑现为巨大的商业价值。" 3、"选创新药有两条核心标准，产品是否有全球竞争力，是否直击有未被满足的临床需求。" 这是富国医药创新（A类0 1 9 9 1 6；C类0 1 9 9 1 7）基金经理王超分享的最新投资洞见。 富国医药创新基金经理 王超 历 经 四 年 的 蛰 伏 ， 医 药 投 资 在 2 0 2 5 年 " 扬 眉 吐 气 " ， 创 新 药 板 块 尤 为 耀 眼 。 多 轮 海 外 授 权 （BD）交易持续点燃市场热情，推动板块强势上行。据Wi n d统计，截至7月4日，中证港股 创新药指数年内涨幅近3 0%，中证创新药产业指数上涨1 7%，领跑主流指数。 注：指数历史表现 不 预 示基金未 来 收 益 。 坚守创新药领域的基金终于迎来"收获期"，2 0 2 4年3月1 2日逆势成立的富国医药创新正是其中 的佼佼者。 这只基金自2 0 2 5年1月2 1日起，由王超与赵伟一起管理，也是王超在管的唯一一只基金。截至 今年6月3 0日，富国医药创新股票A（0 1 9 9 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have released important announcements, highlighting significant developments and performance forecasts that may impact investor decisions [1]. Company Announcements - **Saili Medical**: The therapeutic hypertension vaccine project by its affiliate, Huajiyuan Biotechnology, faces significant uncertainty despite recent market interest in innovative drugs. The company holds a 15.61% stake in Huajiyuan, which reported a revenue of 26,800 yuan and a net loss of 2,382,300 yuan for 2024 [3]. - **Renfu Pharmaceutical**: Shareholder,招商生科, has secured a loan commitment of up to 750 million yuan from招商银行武汉分行 to increase its stake in Renfu Pharmaceutical. The planned share buyback will occur within six months starting from July 3, 2025, with a maximum purchase price of 25.53 yuan per share [4]. - **China Merchants Energy Shipping**: The company has received a new multi-purpose heavy-lift vessel, "Mingshi," as part of its order for four eco-friendly vessels. The fleet now includes 102 operational bulk carriers, with 16 vessels on order for future delivery [5]. - **Shangwei New Materials**: The company announced a significant stock price fluctuation, with a 30% increase over two days. A share transfer agreement was signed, potentially changing the controlling shareholder to Zhiyuan Hengyue, pending shareholder approval [6]. - **Northern Rare Earth**: The trading price for rare earth concentrates has been adjusted to 19,109 yuan per ton for Q3 2025, based on market conditions [7]. - **Baotou Steel**: Similar to Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel has proposed an adjustment of the rare earth concentrate trading price to 19,109 yuan per ton for Q3 2025 [9]. - **Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical**: The company received approval from the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission for the transfer of 51.137 million shares from its controlling shareholder, Shanghai Electric, without changing control [10]. Performance Forecasts - **Eyer Communication**: The company expects a net profit of approximately 463 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 121.13%, driven by growth in the IoT sector [12]. - **Tianbao Infrastructure**: The company forecasts a net profit of 90 million to 130 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1581.8% to 2329.27% due to tax recoveries [13]. - **China Shipbuilding**: The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is between 2.8 billion and 3.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 98.25% to 119.49% due to improved production efficiency and order structure [14]. - **Shanghai Xiba**: The company anticipates a net profit of 99 million to 118 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 136.47% to 181.85%, primarily due to non-recurring income [15]. - **Longyuan Technology**: The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is between 26 million and 31 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 116.61% to 158.26% [16]. - **Zhengbang Technology**: The company forecasts a net profit of 190 million to 210 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a return to profitability driven by increased pig sales [17][18]. - **Bolong Technology**: The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is between 22 million and 28 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.09% to 183.93% due to successful project deliveries [19]. - **Haitou Shares**: The company anticipates a net profit of approximately 380 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 233.10% due to favorable market conditions [20]. - **Chuangjiang New Materials**: The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is between 24 million and 29 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.35% to 72% [21]. - **Hudian Shares**: The company forecasts a net profit of between 1.65 billion and 1.75 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.63% to 53.4% [22]. - **Taiping Bird**: The company expects a net profit of around 77.7 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of approximately 55% due to declining retail performance [23]. - **China Satellite**: The company anticipates a loss of between 21.2 million and 41.2 million yuan for the first half of 2025, attributed to reduced contract fulfillment and increased operational costs [24]. - **ST Yatai**: The company expects a loss of between 12.6 million and 20.9 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to cash flow issues and increased non-recurring expenses [25]. Major Contracts - **Bai Da Group**: The company signed a significant leasing contract for the Hangzhou Department Store, with a rental agreement of 375 million yuan per quarter, increasing by 4.5% every three years [26]. Shareholding Changes - **Baoshui Technology**: A major shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 1% through market transactions between August 4 and November 3, 2025 [28].

PD-(L)1/VEGF 临床管线加速推进，多数处于临床偏早期阶段，药物结构各有不同。 截至 2025 年 6 月，国内共约 20 个 PD-(L)1/VEGF 双抗 / 三抗药物。康方生物 AK112 研发进度靠前， 1L NSCLC 及 2/3L nsqNSCLC 已在国内获批上市，另有多个适应症处于三期临床阶段；此外，普米斯、三生制 药、神州细胞进入 3 期及 2/3 期临床阶段；宜明昂科、华奥泰、天士力、荣昌生物、君实生物正处于 2 期临床阶段，临床试验正在快速推进。分析已公布药物结构信息的进度靠前的 9 款药物， 3 款以贝伐珠 单抗为骨架，区别在于链接的 PD-(L)1 结构，康方为 PD1 scFV 、礼新为 PD-1 VHH 、普米斯为 PD- L1 VHH ； 6 款以 PD-(L)1 为骨架，三生为抗 PD-1 和抗 VEGF 共享一条轻链；宜明昂科、华奥泰的 VEGFR1D2 结构域连接于 Fab 端；君实生物为 VEGF 插入 PD-1 铰链区；荣昌生物为 VEGF 连接于 C 端末尾，结构各有不同，期待更多数据读出。 A/H 股创新药月涨跌幅复盘及最新动态。 2025/06/01-2 ...

超2900股飘红。 具体来看，沪指在金融、地产等板块的带动下强势拉升，深证成指、创业板指亦上扬。截至收盘，沪指涨0.48%报3509.68点，深证成指涨0.47%报10631.13 点，创业板指涨0.22%报2189.58点，上证50指数涨0.62%，沪深北三市合计成交15153亿元，成交额和此前一交易日大致相当。 A股今日（7月10日）再度走高，沪指重返3500点上方，续创年内新高；上证50指数一度涨超1%；港股走势分化，恒生指数小幅上扬。 金融板块拉升 券商板块盘中强势上扬，截至收盘，中银证券涨停，红塔证券涨超6%，东北证券、哈投股份涨近3%。 | 代码 名称 | � | 瑞唱% | 现价 | 涨跌 | 头价 | 卖价 息量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601696 中银证券 | | R 10.03 | 11.85 | 1.08 | 11.85 | ﺍ 199.57 | | 601236 红塔证券 | R | 6.33 | 8.90 | 0.53 | 8.90 | 8.91 142.3万 | | 000686 东北证券 | R | 2.8 ...

作为A股市场重要的境外资金风向标，北向资金的持仓动向持续引发市场高度关注。最新披露的2025年二季度数据显 示，北向资金持仓总市值已达2.28万亿元，较上季度增加548亿元。这一资金流向与国际机构近期密集上调中国增长预 期和对中国股市给出"超配"建议的行动不谋而合。 从具体配置来看，北向资金二季度"买买买"展现出清晰的产业布局逻辑，重点加仓金融、工业及医疗保健三大板块。 新能源龙头宁德时代（300750.SZ）获超百亿元资金加持，恒瑞医药（600276.SH）、东鹏饮料（605499.SH）等细分 领域龙头也均获得逾60亿元的资金流入。这些获得重点加仓的个股普遍具有两大特征：一是企业基本面持续向好，如 创新药企频传研发突破；二是今年刚在港股上市，形成显著的"A+H"联动效应。 北向资金二季度加仓超500亿元 素有"聪明钱"之称的北向资金正"真金白银"大手笔买入A股。根据沪深交易所披露的数据，截至今年二季度末，北向 资金共持有3572只A股，持股数量合计1235.11亿股，持股市值合计2.28万亿元。与一季度末相比，持仓市值增加了约 548亿元。 与资金流入相呼应的是外资机构近期的密集调研活动。Wind数据显示 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese innovative drug industry has transitioned from imitation to breakthrough innovation over the past decade, marking a significant development phase [1] - By 2025, the approval process for innovative drugs in China is expected to enter a "super-fast era," with approval times nearing those of the FDA, indicating a shift towards becoming a global dual-engine for innovative drug launches [1][2] - The number of license-out transactions by Chinese companies reached a record high in 2024, with 94 deals totaling $51.9 billion, reflecting a growing interest from multinational corporations (MNCs) [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Chinese biotech sector saw a 78% increase in the first half of 2025, significantly outperforming global peers, although the overall market capitalization remains only 14%-15% of that of U.S. counterparts [4] - The "DeepSeek moment" in the Chinese biopharmaceutical industry signifies a shift towards achieving high-quality innovation at lower costs, challenging established global players [4] - Despite geopolitical and regulatory risks, interest from overseas MNCs in Chinese innovative drugs remains strong, particularly in the U.S. market [5] Group 2: NewCo Model - The NewCo model has emerged as a mainstream approach for Chinese companies to enter overseas markets, allowing them to retain equity and share future value with investors [6][7] - As of Q1 2025, 13 NewCo transactions have been completed by Chinese pharmaceutical companies, totaling over $10 billion, indicating a robust trend towards this model [6] - The NewCo structure helps mitigate financial pressures and enhances competitiveness in international markets by focusing resources on pipeline development [7] Group 3: Financing Challenges - The Chinese innovative drug sector is facing a financing winter, with a significant decline in IPOs and funding amounts in 2024 compared to previous years [8][9] - The number of financing cases in the healthcare sector decreased by 17% in 2024, although total funding increased by 9%, indicating a shift in investor focus [8] - The average funding amount per project in China has dropped by 71% from its peak in 2020, highlighting the challenges faced by early-stage projects [8] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - The trend of "selling seedlings" reflects a strategic necessity for many Chinese innovative drug companies to quickly recoup funds for ongoing research and development [13][14] - The proportion of preclinical projects in license-out transactions has increased from 28% in 2020 to 61% in 2024, driven by areas like oncology and neuroscience [13] - Companies are urged to build independent innovation systems and avoid over-reliance on licensing, which could lead to a loss of competitive edge in the long term [14][15]

8天5板塞力医疗：旗下联营企业治疗性降压疫苗项目试验能否成功还存在重大不确定性 智通财经7月10日电，塞力医疗(603716.SH)公告称，公司股票连续3个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值 累计超过20%，属于股票交易异常波动情形。公司关注到近期市场对创新药业务关注度较高。公司旗下 联营企业武汉华纪元生物技术开发有限公司（简称"华纪元生物"）是公司于2020年1月投资的参股公 司，持有其15.61%的股份，投资金额1,066.6万元，华纪元生物2024年营业收入2.68万元，净利润-238.23 万元。其治疗性降压疫苗项目HJY-ATRQ β-001已完成概念验证（POC）阶段研究和临床前研究，已于 2025年6月6日获得国家药监局（NMPA）的新药临床试验申请（IND）受理，后续还需经一期、二期临 床试验，试验能否成功还存在重大不确定性。上述投资目前对公司主营业务的影响较小，敬请投资者注 意相关风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 ...