Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, driven by a rebound in household employment from -696,000 to 93,000[2][5] - Private sector job growth slowed significantly, with an increase of only 74,000 jobs, down from 137,000 in May[8] Wage and Labor Market Trends - Hourly wage growth on a year-over-year basis decreased to 3.7%, down from 3.8% in May[9] - The average weekly hours worked fell to 34.2 hours, a decrease of 0.1 hours from the previous month[16] - Labor force participation rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%[17] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for July have decreased, with market pricing reflecting a cumulative cut of 51 basis points by 2025, down from 61 basis points[2][5] - The report indicates potential risks to employment growth in Q3 due to tariffs and immigration slowdowns, leading to a forecast of two preventive rate cuts in September and December[5][6] - The NFIB's hiring intentions suggest an increased risk of weakening job growth in the coming months[10]

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 110,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, primarily due to a rebound in household employment from -696,000 to 93,000[1] - The labor force participation rate declined by 0.1 percentage points, potentially due to immigration policies[1] Wage and Hourly Earnings - Hourly wage growth slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%[1] - The three-month annualized growth rate of hourly wages decreased from 3.6% to 3.2%[5] - Average weekly hours worked fell to 34.2 hours, down from 34.3 hours[6] Sector Performance - Private sector job growth weakened, with a decline of 63,000 jobs to 74,000 in June, particularly in the service sector[5] - Government employment surged, contributing over half of the new jobs, with state and local government jobs rising significantly from 32,000 to 80,000[5] - The service sector saw a notable slowdown, with education and healthcare services declining by 32,000 jobs to 51,000[5] Market Implications - Due to the stronger-than-expected employment data, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July decreased, with market pricing for cumulative rate cuts in 2025 falling by 10 basis points to 51 basis points[1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year and 10-year yields increasing by 12 basis points and 8 basis points, respectively, to 3.88% and 4.34%[1]

Core Insights - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6.89 basis points, reaching 4.3457% at the close on Thursday, July 3, indicating a significant upward movement in bond yields [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 9.51 basis points, closing at 3.8799%, reflecting a broader trend of increasing short-term interest rates [1] Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year Treasury yield traded within a range of 4.2475% to 4.3576% throughout the day, showing volatility in the market [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield experienced a daily trading range of 3.7517% to 3.9089%, highlighting fluctuations in investor sentiment [1] Weekly Performance - For the week, the 10-year Treasury yield has cumulatively increased by 6.89 basis points, indicating a trend of rising yields [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield has seen a total increase of 13.20 basis points this week, suggesting a stronger movement in short-term rates compared to long-term rates [1]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected resilience in the U.S. job market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its decision to cut interest rates in July [1][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 110,000 and slightly above the revised figure of 144,000 for May [3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February, while the broader unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% [3] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating steady wage growth [3] - The average workweek slightly declined to 34.2 hours, reflecting changes in labor demand [3] - In contrast, the ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, raising concerns about the labor market's strength [4] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury yields rose following the employment report, with the 2-year yield increasing over 10 basis points to 3.894%, and the 10-year yield rising over 6 basis points to 4.356% [1] - In Europe, bond yields fell as investors bought European government bonds, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 3.512% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 30-year yield increasing by 8.6 basis points to 2.971% [5]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose on Wednesday due to investors digesting weak employment data and weighing the impact of President Trump's tax and spending plan [1][3] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, contrasting with economists' expectations of an increase of 100,000 jobs [3] - The Senate passed Trump's major bill with a narrow margin of 51 to 50 votes, which is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 0.6 basis points to 3.783%, the 10-year yield rose by 5.1 basis points to 4.3%, and the 30-year yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.84% [1] - In the European market, 10-year German bonds rose by 5.8 basis points to 2.625%, Italian bonds increased by 8.6 basis points to 3.555%, and French bonds rose by 8.1 basis points to 3.328% [5] - The UK bond market saw significant increases, with the 10-year yield jumping over 20 basis points to 4.67%, reflecting concerns over government spending plans [5]

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly focusing on President Trump's dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the potential candidates for his successor, which could significantly impact interest rate expectations and U.S. Treasury yields [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump is reportedly considering announcing Powell's successor by September or October, with potential candidates including Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, and Christopher Waller [1][3]. - Warsh is seen as a candidate with a hawkish stance, advocating for monetary policy independence and prioritizing balance sheet reduction [5]. - Bessent is viewed as a dovish candidate, favoring close coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, which could lead to a more accommodative interest rate path [5]. - Waller, a recent appointee by Trump, has expressed a desire for immediate rate cuts, indicating a more aggressive approach to monetary policy [5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The market currently assigns a 76% probability to a Fed rate cut in September, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index to its lowest level since March 2022 [3]. - Analysts expect the Fed may cut rates 1 to 2 times this year, depending on inflation and employment data, with a terminal rate projected around 3% [8]. - The current federal funds rate is in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating a potential for further easing [8]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yields - Short to medium-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline, with a preference for 5-year bonds due to favorable risk-reward ratios [6][8]. - The outlook for 30-year bonds is less optimistic, as high U.S. debt levels may keep long-term yields elevated [8]. - The Treasury is anticipated to issue more short to medium-term bonds to meet market demand, reflecting a shift in investor interest [8]. Group 4: China and Currency Dynamics - The Chinese bond market is expected to remain stable, with 5-year and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.475% and 1.65%, respectively [10]. - The future of the China-U.S. interest rate differential will largely depend on developments in the U.S. [10]. - Analysts predict a gradual appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its forecasts for the yuan's exchange rate to 7.1, 7, and 6.9 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, expressed confidence in the advancement of Trump's comprehensive tax bill, expecting it to be signed before July 4 [2] - Becerra described the legislation as the "beginning of addressing the debt issue" and opposed the idea of cutting Medicaid programs [2] - He criticized the previous administration's reliance on short-term debt issuance and indicated a preference for a different strategy moving forward [2][3] Group 2 - Becerra noted that the current 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.26%, while the 2-year and 12-month yields are 3.73% and 3.81%, respectively [2] - He anticipates that as inflation slows, yields across all maturities may decline, suggesting a parallel downward shift in the yield curve [2] - On trade issues, Becerra stated that tariffs have not yet caused inflation and expects a flurry of trade agreements to be signed before the July 9 deadline [3]