大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-12 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1325元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1305元/吨，基差为20元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.13万吨，较前一周增加1.74%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年5月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年5月份国内沥青总计划排产量为231.8万吨，环比增幅1.3%。本 周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为28.8231%，环比减少2.64个百分点，全国样本企业出货 29.11万吨，环比持平，样本企业产量为48.1万吨，环比减少8.38%,样本企业装置检修量预估 为75.9万吨，环比增加1.07%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周供给压力或将持平。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为28.3%，环比减少0.08个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比增加0.88个百分点，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为8.1453%，环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected production scheduling will increase next week due to fewer expected overhauls. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4835 - 4917. The supply has an overall strong pressure, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. [8][9] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In April 2025, PVC production was 1.954977 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.51%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 332,780 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 126,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.04%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. [7] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 43.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 33.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 43.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.93 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 65.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.88 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.93%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is advantageous. The current demand is close to the historical average. [8] - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 533 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 4.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 584 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 3.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2189.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure. [8] - **Base Difference**: On May 7th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4840 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 36 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [10] - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 411,031 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.18%. The calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 325,931 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The ethylene - based factory inventory was 85,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.05%. The social inventory was 403,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.04%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 7.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.89%. [10] - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position decreased. [9][10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including indicators such as prices, production, inventory, and operating rates of different types of PVC products (calcium carbide - based, ethylene - based), as well as their changes compared with the previous values. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Difference Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the base difference of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices. [17] - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price, trading volume, and open interest trends of PVC futures, including the relationship between the futures price and moving averages (MA20), and the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats. [20][21] - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread. [23] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide - based PVC production process. [26][29][31][34] - **PVC Supply Trends**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rates, production profits, and daily/weekly production trends of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production. [39][40][42] - **Demand Trends**: Analyzes the demand - side indicators of PVC, including traders' sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream operating rates (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin), and the cost - profit and production of paste resin. It also analyzes the relationship between PVC demand and real - estate and infrastructure investment indicators. [44][45][56] - **Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory trends of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventories, and production enterprise inventory days. [60] - **Ethylene - Based Analysis**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads in the ethylene - based PVC production process. [62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data from 2024 to 2025. [65][66]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-8 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：纯碱检修陆续复产，开工率回升，供给抬升；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量走稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1310元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1323元/吨，基差为-13元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存167.22万吨，较前一周减少1.11%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年5月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年4月PVC产量为195.4977万吨，环比减少5.51%；本周样本企业产能 利用率为79.33%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.278万吨，环比减少0.88%,乙烯法企 业产量12.662万吨，环比增加9.04%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少 量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为43.94%，环比减少4.22个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为33.4%，环比减少6.5个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为43.13%，环比减少 5.93个百分点，低于历史平均水平； ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年5月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 3 每日观点 利多：原油成本相对高位，略有支撑。 利空：高价货源需求不足；整体需求下行，欧美经济衰退预期加强。 主要逻辑：供应端来看，供给压力仍处高位；需求端来看，复苏乏力。 主要风险点：原油价格的走势变化;；沥青焦化物利润差走势。 4 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年5月份国内沥青总计划排产量为231.8万吨，环比增幅1.3%。本 周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为28.8231%，环比减少2.64个百分点，全国样本企业出货 29.11万吨，环比持平，样本企业产量为48.1万吨，环比减少8.38%,样本企业装置检修量预估 为75.9万吨，环比增加1.07%,本周 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年5月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续反弹，站上5日均线。短期受印尼政策扰动和成本支撑，长期供应过剩和高库存依 旧，镍价下有支撑，上有压力，维持区间震荡格局。下游不锈钢表现偏弱，交易所仓单不断流入现货， 供应压力增强。偏空 2、基差：现货125575，基差945，偏多 3、库存：LME库存200082，-336，上交所仓单24125，-183，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2506：震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 利空： 1、国内产量继续同比大幅上升，需求无新增长点，长期过剩格局不变 2、镍铁价格持续回落，后市偏弱预期 3、不锈钢仓单陆续流入 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年5月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年5月份国内沥青总计划排产量为231.8万吨，环比增幅1.3%。本 周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为28.8231%，环比减少2.64个百分点，全国样本企业出货 29.11万吨，环比持平，样本企业产量为48.1万吨，环比减少8.38%,样本企业装置检修量预估 为75.9万吨，环比增加1.07%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周供给压力或将持平。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为28.3%，环比减少0.08个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比增加0.88个百分点，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为8.1453 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年4月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 3 平。 2、基差: 04月28日，山东现货价3525元/吨，06合约基差为74元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为142.1万吨，环比增加2.01%，厂内库存为90.2万吨，环比减少1.63%，港口稀释沥 青库存为库存为14万吨，环比持平。社会库存持续累库，厂内库存持续去库，港口库存持续持 偏多。 4、盘面: MA20向下，06合约期价收于MA20上方。 中性。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净多，空翻多。 偏多。 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年4月份国内沥青总计划排产量为228.9万吨，环比减少9.7万吨， 降幅4.1%，同比增加0.4万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are neutral. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly next week. The current demand is close to the historical average, but overall domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the cost is generally rising. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4951 - 5027. [6][9] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. Negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, persistently high inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand. [11] - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In March 2025, PVC production was 2.069132 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.25%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 332,780 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 126,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.04%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly. [6] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 48.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.069 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 39.9%, unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 49.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.620 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 69.44%, unchanged from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 74.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. The current demand is close to the historical average. [6] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 533 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 4.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 584 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 3.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2232.95 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure. [8] - **Basis**: On April 28, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 129 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. [9] - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 420,201 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%. The calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 327,641 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. The ethylene - based factory inventory was 92,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.48%. The social inventory was 420,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.71%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 7.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.89%, which is bearish. [9] - **Market Trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20, which is neutral. [9] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish. [9] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, production, inventory, and downstream开工率 of different types of PVC, as well as their changes compared to the previous period. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report shows the historical trends of PVC basis, spot prices in East China, and the closing prices of the main contract from January 4, 2022, to April 26, 2025. [18] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread The report presents the historical trends of price spreads (such as 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread) of the PVC main contract from January 2, 2024, to December 30, 2024, and from January 2, 2025, to April 28, 2025. [24] 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: It shows the historical trends of Lancoke medium - grade material prices, cost - profit,开工率, weekly inventory, and daily production from 2022 to 2025. [27] - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the historical trends of the mainstream price of Shaanxi calcium carbide, cost - profit in Wuhai,开工率, maintenance loss, and production from 2019 to 2025. [30] - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It shows the historical trends of liquid chlorine prices, production, raw salt prices, and monthly production from 2019 to 2025. [32] - **Caustic Soda**: It shows the historical trends of the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong, cost - profit,开工率, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory of sample enterprises, and flake caustic soda inventory from 2019 to 2025. [34][37] 3.6 PVC Fundamentals - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the historical trends of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based capacity utilization rates, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of sample enterprises from 2018 to 2025. [38][40] 3.7 PVC Fundamentals - Demand Trend - It shows the historical trends of PVC traders' daily sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, profile开工率, pipe开工率, film开工率, paste resin开工率, paste resin gross profit, monthly production, cost, and apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025. [43][46][48][51] - It also shows the historical trends of real estate investment completion amount, cumulative housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area from 2018 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year from 2019 to 2025. [54][57] 3.8 PVC Fundamentals - Inventory It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises from 2019 to 2025. [59] 3.9 PVC Fundamentals - Ethylene Method It shows the historical trends of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025. [61] 3.10 PVC Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from February 2024 to March 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports. [64]