Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight increases after a period of high volatility, with the upcoming PCE price index being a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve. The Reuters survey anticipates a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% for August PCE [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut, the dollar has been appreciating slightly. Despite expectations of further rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, the pace of these cuts will largely depend on upcoming economic data [3] - Federal Reserve officials continue to comment on the recent rate cut decision, with varying opinions on the necessity and speed of further cuts. The labor market remains a focal point, with recent unemployment claims data indicating a decrease, suggesting that companies are hesitant to lay off employees despite economic uncertainties [4] Market Trends - The current trend for silver is characterized as a price consolidation phase, with support and resistance levels being monitored for potential trading strategies. The dollar index is also showing signs of a fluctuating downward trend [6][9] - Technical indicators for silver suggest that prices are near the lower boundary of a consolidation range, with support identified at 44.30. The MACD indicator indicates a downward trend, and market activity appears to be decreasing, warranting cautious trading approaches [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the support from Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, for the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicating potential further cuts in the future [2] - Daly emphasizes the need to balance inflation control and labor market support, suggesting that while inflation is still above the Fed's target, it is approaching it [2] - The silver T+D market experienced fluctuations, with a slight increase in price, closing at 10,354 yuan/kg, reflecting the impact of monetary policy on commodity prices [1][3] Group 2 - The silver T+D market showed a trading range with resistance levels noted between 10,400 and 11,000 yuan/kg, while support levels were identified between 9,900 and 10,278 yuan/kg [3] - Daly's comments suggest that the U.S. economy does not currently face a recession, and she denies the possibility of a "stagflation" scenario, indicating a more stable economic outlook [2] - The overall sentiment in the silver market is influenced by the high borrowing costs, which are expected to continue exerting downward pressure on inflation [2]

Market Overview - International gold closed with fluctuations on September 25, with an opening price of $3741.03 per ounce, a high of $3761.48, a low of $3717.46, and a closing price of $3735.82 [1] Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 20 recorded 218,000, lower than the market expectation of 235,000 and previous value of 232,000 [3] - The final annualized quarterly GDP for Q2 in the U.S. was reported at 3.8%, exceeding the market expectation of 3.3% and the previous value of 3.3% [3] - The final quarterly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for Q2 was 2.5%, higher than the market expectation of 1.7% and previous value of 1.6% [3] - The final annualized core PCE price index for Q2 was 2.6%, above the market expectation of 2.5% and previous value of 2.5% [3] - Analysts noted that the decline in jobless claims indicates limited layoffs despite a cooling labor market, with companies opting to retain employees [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve's Daly suggested that further rate cuts may be necessary over time, indicating that tariffs have had a more significant impact on the labor market than on inflation [4] - The current economic conditions in the U.S. are described as good, with the Fed needing to monitor inflation closely while also watching for signs of labor market weakness [4] Geopolitical Situation - European diplomats warned the Kremlin that NATO is prepared to respond to further airspace violations by Russia, indicating heightened tensions in the region [5] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained its holdings at 996.85 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The gold price experienced fluctuations, with a high of $3751 and a low of $3729 during the day, indicating a short-term consolidation phase [9] - The daily moving averages suggest a bullish trend, while short-term indicators show signs of fatigue in the upward movement [9] - Trading strategies recommend cautious high short and low long positions due to the current market conditions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate adjustments, highlighting contrasting views on the necessity and timing of potential rate cuts [4][10][12]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid expressed concerns that excessive rate cuts could hinder inflation from returning to the Fed's 2% target, indicating that current policy is only slightly restrictive [6][8]. - Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee voiced unease about aggressive rate cuts, suggesting that the current economic environment shows signs of stagflation, which complicates the Fed's dual mandate [8][9]. - Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman stated that inflation is close enough to the target to justify further rate cuts, emphasizing the fragility of the labor market [10][11]. Group 2: Rate Cut Probabilities - As of September 26, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in October is 14.5%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 85.5%. For December, the probabilities are 4.3% for no change, 35.4% for a cumulative 25 basis point cut, and 60.4% for a cumulative 50 basis point cut [4]. Group 3: Aggressive Rate Cut Proposals - New Fed Governor Stephen Milan advocated for a rapid adjustment of monetary policy, proposing a series of 50 basis point cuts to quickly reach neutral interest rates, totaling a reduction of 150 to 200 basis points [10][12]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supported the recent rate cut decision and anticipated further cuts, asserting that the economy is not heading towards recession [12].

美国著名对冲基金经理、城堡投资创始人兼首席执行官肯.格里芬表示，他预计美联储在2025年还会再 次下调基准利率，因为该央行正将注意力转向劳动力市场。格里芬周四在接受采访时表示："我认为他 们今年还会再降息一次，甚至两次。美联储对劳动力市场感到紧张，因为我们确实看到了新增就业岗位 数量下降。" 格里芬表示："在当今这个时代，按季度进行报告是合理的。" 美国劳动力市场开始显现疲软迹象，8月份的失业率升至4.3%，为2021年以来的最高水平。美联储主席 杰罗姆.鲍威尔上周表示，就业市场降温的迹象愈发明显，当时美联储将基准利率下调了25个基点。 格里芬表示："在劳动力市场方面，我们很难确切地知道当前的状况究竟如何。但我们可以确定的是， 如果没有移民涌入，美国的人口增长将会大幅放缓，这将导致我们创造新工作岗位的能力下降。" 格里芬一直主张美联储应保持独立性。本月早些时候，格里芬在一篇评论文章中指出，维护美联储的独 立结构符合美国总统唐纳德.特朗普的最佳利益。 格里芬表示："他希望降低利率，而我要告诉你的是，如果我是总统，我会让美联储履行职责。我会让 美联储尽可能拥有感知上的和实际的独立性，因为美联储往往需要做出一些相当 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储戴利：美联储需要监测通胀情况，同时也要关注劳动力市场是否疲软。 ...

Labor Market Overview - Initial claims for unemployment insurance were reported at 218,000 for the week ending Sept. 20, which is a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week and significantly lower than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 235,000 [1][2] - Continuing claims fell slightly by 2,000 to 1.926 million, indicating stability in the labor market [2] Federal Reserve Response - The Federal Reserve recently lowered its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4%-4.25%, citing rising downside risks to employment as part of the reasoning for this decision [2][3] - The Federal Open Market Committee noted in its post-meeting statement that the easing was influenced by concerns over employment, despite the claims data suggesting companies are hesitant to lay off workers [3] Employment Trends - Nonfarm payroll growth has slowed significantly, and job openings are at a multi-year low, indicating a potential weakening in the labor market [3] - Despite a recent uptick in claims, the overall data suggests that companies remain reluctant to part with employees, even amid declining hiring rates [3]

Market Valuation and Earnings Growth - The market is currently viewed as fully valued, but this does not necessarily indicate an impending decline, as overvalued markets can continue to rise [2][3] - The market today is characterized by higher quality, stronger growth, and less cyclicality compared to long-term history, justifying higher valuations [3] - Earnings are expected to drive market performance over the next 6 to 12 months, with projections for a third consecutive year of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P [4] Impact of Tariffs and Economic Stimulus - Companies have managed to absorb the impact of tariffs, maintaining strong profit margins, although there are concerns about potential profit margin pressures from ongoing tariff increases [5][6] - The economic environment is expected to improve due to easier financial conditions and stimulus from recent legislation, which is anticipated to support corporate profitability and economic growth [6][7] Consumer Sentiment and Labor Market - The high-end consumer is expected to remain resilient, despite concerns about stress at the lower end of the consumer spectrum [8] - Labor market stability is crucial for consumer sentiment, and while there is a current slowdown, business optimism is improving, indicating potential recovery [9][10] - A decrease in the number of companies announcing job cuts suggests a stabilization in the labor market, which could support consumer spending moving forward [10][11] Investment Strategy - Any volatility or pullback in the market should be viewed as an investment opportunity, as the overall outlook remains positive despite potential short-term challenges [12]

Core Viewpoint - The San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that further interest rate cuts may be necessary, but the Federal Reserve should proceed with caution in making such decisions [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the first time since December of last year [1] - Daly expressed full support for this decision due to signs of slowing economic growth, consumer spending, and labor market conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Inflation has risen less than previously expected, with price pressures mainly concentrated in sectors affected by tariffs [1] - Despite a slowdown in the labor market, the current economic situation is not deemed dire, and there is no risk of recession [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed's rate cut is intended to support the labor market and prevent further deterioration [1] - Daly noted that while the economy still requires some monetary policy adjustments, the extent of these adjustments is not as severe as before [1]

美联储戴利：不希望看到劳动力市场继续走软。并没有看到关于美国（即将）出现滞胀的"转折点"。剔 除关税因素的通胀大约在2.4%-2.5%。美国发生经济衰退的风险现在非常低。经济需要"货币缰绳"，但 （对限制性的需求）不再那么强烈。 ...