今日关注 本周全球市场大事不断：中国2025年12月外贸数据、美国CPI及PPI数据将陆续公布；美国最高法院或公 布关税裁决；美联储将发布最新褐皮书，多位美联储官员将密集发声；美股财报季开启，摩根大通等将 披露最新业绩。重要会议方面，七国集团（G7）加其他国家财长会议将举行，中国核聚变与AIGC大会 召开。 宏观经济 1、1月10日至11日，全国商务工作会议在京召开。会议指出，全国商务系统2026年将重点做好深入实施 提振消费专项行动、推进全国统一大市场建设等八个方面工作。 2、国家医保局11日启动"个人医保云"建设试点。"个人医保云"将重点对接处理医院、药店、家庭智能 监测设备等数据，整合个人健康档案，形成个人医保财务档案，提供费用分析与医疗保障建议。 3、11日，由中国兵器工业集团完全自主研发的"天马-1000"无人运输机成功首飞。该型无人机是国内首 款实现"高原复杂地形适配、超短距起降、货运空投双模快速切换"的中空低成本运输平台。 4、据央视财经，截至1月9日，国内春节假期机票预订总量超300万张，日均预订量同比增长约20%。海 口在热门前10名城市中增速领跑，同比增长了1.2倍；三亚增长90%。拉萨、 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a year-end rally with accelerated rotation of hot sectors, including commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, storage chips, controllable nuclear fusion, and photoresist [1][3] - In December 2025, a total of 155 public fund institutions participated in A-share research, with Huaxia Fund leading with 100 research sessions [1][7] - Notably, stocks with multiple hot concepts have shown significant price increases, resulting in several "double stocks," while some stocks have experienced rapid declines due to short-term speculation [1][8] Group 2 - The brain-computer interface concept stock, Entropy Technology, has been the most researched since the beginning of 2026, attracting 132 institutions, including 36 public funds [3] - Superjet Co., involved in commercial aerospace, has also gained attention, with 109 institutions participating in its research sessions, focusing on its rocket structure component production line [4] - Guanglian Aviation, a leading private enterprise in aerospace equipment structure, has attracted 79 institutions for its research, emphasizing its participation in national projects [4] Group 3 - Companies like Dineike, focusing on smart home and medical communication devices, have attracted 60 institutions, with interest in their brainwave interaction technology [5] - Other notable companies include Guojijiang Precision Engineering and Tangyuan Electric, which are involved in commercial aerospace and robotics, respectively, attracting significant institutional interest [5] - Prior to the year-end rally, institutions had already begun research layouts, with 71 public institutions conducting at least 20 research sessions each in December 2025 [7] Group 4 - Since December 2025, several stocks have shown strong performance, with Superjet Co. and Hualing Cable seeing price increases of over 150%, while others like Guanglian Aviation and Haoshi Electromechanical have risen over 120% [8] - Conversely, some stocks, such as Tianming Technology, have experienced significant price corrections due to clarifications regarding their business focus, leading to a nearly 20% decline in early January 2026 [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen strong performance in sectors such as commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, storage chips, controllable nuclear fusion, and photolithography [1][2] - Institutional investors have been actively researching popular concepts since the beginning of 2026, indicating a strong desire to capitalize on the spring market [1][4] - Companies like Entropy Technology, which focuses on brain-computer interfaces, have attracted significant attention, with over 100 institutions participating in their research activities [1][2] Group 2 - Superjet Co., involved in commercial aerospace, has also garnered attention, with three research sessions attracting over 100 institutions, including 43 public funds [2] - Guanglian Aviation, a leading private enterprise in aerospace equipment, has participated in two research sessions with 79 institutions, focusing on national projects [2] - Companies like Dineike, which specializes in smart home and medical devices, have also attracted interest from dozens of institutions regarding their brainwave interaction technology [3] Group 3 - Many stocks associated with popular concepts have seen significant price increases, with Superjet Co., Hualing Cable, and Guanglian Aviation all rising over 120% since December 2025 [4] - Institutional research activity has been high, with 155 public institutions participating in A-share research in December 2025, covering 451 stocks [4] - The technology sector is viewed as the core theme for the A-share market in 2026, with artificial intelligence being a leading area of growth [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and investment strategies of two equity funds managed by Tongtai Fund, focusing on high stock positions and specific sectors like nuclear fusion and digital economy [1][2][3] - As of the end of 2025, the stock positions of Tongtai New Energy 1-Year Holding Stock and Tongtai Digital Economy Stock were 88.39% and 93.42% respectively, indicating a high level of investment commitment [1] - Both funds achieved net value growth in the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2025, with Tongtai New Energy 1-Year Holding Stock A and C shares recording growth rates of 26.28% and 26.16%, while Tongtai Digital Economy Stock A and C shares recorded growth rates of 3.49% and 3.38% [1] Group 2 - The funds are managed by Chen Zongchao, with a significant focus on the technology sector, particularly in controllable nuclear fusion and the broader digital economy [2] - The top ten holdings of Tongtai New Energy 1-Year Holding Stock include companies like Yongding Co., Ltd. and Dongfang Electric, while Tongtai Digital Economy Stock includes firms such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Cambrian [2] - Chen Zongchao anticipates that the nuclear fusion industry will see substantial investment growth in the next 3 to 5 years, supported by policies and planning in various regions [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the industry is expected to experience structural opportunities driven by AI, with a focus on AI large models and computing power [3] - The investment strategy for Tongtai Digital Economy Stock will involve multi-track investments in the technology sector to enhance risk-return ratios for investors [3] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector is still in its early stages, and Tongtai New Energy 1-Year Holding Stock will focus on selecting individual stocks to minimize portfolio volatility and create long-term returns [3]

Key Points - Major asset restructuring plans are underway for several companies, including JiaoYun Co. and Dongzhu Ecology, with significant risks of termination noted for Dongzhu Ecology's restructuring efforts [11][12] - ST KeliDa is set to resume trading on January 12, 2026, following a proposed change in its actual controller [5] - NineLink Technology has terminated its major asset restructuring plans due to disagreements on core transaction terms [6] - Companies like Huazhou Laojiao and others have announced substantial profit distributions and performance forecasts, indicating positive growth trends [8][9][10] Focus Area 1: Asset Restructuring - JiaoYun Co. is planning a major asset swap involving its automotive sales and service segments with assets from its controlling shareholder [11] - Dongzhu Ecology is attempting to acquire control of Kai Rui Xing Tong Information Technology but faces significant termination risks due to valuation disagreements [12] - NineLink Technology has decided to halt its plans to acquire a 51% stake in Chengdu Neng Tong Technology after failing to reach consensus on key transaction details [6] Focus Area 2: Trading Resumption and Risk Warnings - ST KeliDa will resume trading on January 12, 2026, after a proposed change in its actual controller [5] - China First Heavy Industries and Oriental Pearl have issued risk warning announcements regarding their stock trading, highlighting the volatility and lack of revenue from certain projects [3][4] Focus Area 3: Performance Forecasts - Huazhou Laojiao expects a net profit of between 235 million to 271 million yuan for 2025, a significant recovery from a loss in the previous year [8] - China Shipbuilding Defense anticipates a net profit increase of 149.61% to 196.88% for 2025, driven by improved production efficiency and revenue from joint ventures [9] - Daotong Technology projects a net profit of 900 million to 930 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 40.42% to 45.10% [10]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a high level of enthusiasm, with a focus on theme stocks and small-cap stocks, while traditional investment funds are more cautious [2] - The expectation is that the market will continue to show a pattern of oscillation and upward movement until the National People's Congress, driven by improved domestic demand expectations [2] - There is a recommendation to focus on resources and traditional manufacturing sectors, as well as to increase allocation in non-bank financials to reduce portfolio volatility [2] Group 2 - A-share valuations are expected to continue to rise, with a potential rebound in overall ROE by 2026, influenced by factors such as increased profits from emerging industries and a slowdown in PPI [3] - The influx of certain types of funds, including regulatory, insurance, and bank wealth management funds, is seen as a solid foundation for the A-share market [3] - The market is likely to see a continuation of the spring rally, with a focus on small-cap stocks and potential adjustments providing good entry points for investors [3] Group 3 - The current market environment suggests limited downside risk and significant potential for upward movement, particularly in the commercial aerospace sector, which is experiencing positive changes [5] - The market is characterized by a concentration of themes and strong trading sentiment, with upcoming earnings reports expected to drive structural adjustments [5] - There is a focus on sectors such as AI, semiconductor, and resource price increases as key areas for investment [9] Group 4 - The spring rally is supported by improved liquidity and a favorable economic environment, with expectations of continued strong performance in the A-share market [6] - The focus on technology and growth sectors is expected to provide significant investment opportunities, particularly in AI applications and commercial aerospace [11] - The market is likely to remain strong leading up to the Spring Festival, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and economic recovery [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market sentiment is high due to the strengthening of equities and seasonal effects. The equity market rose rapidly after the New Year's Day holiday, and the convertible bond market also performed strongly. The median market price of convertible bonds increased by 5 yuan to 138 yuan, and the valuation continued to rise while the underlying stocks were rising. The premium rates of convertible bonds in each parity range are close to the 100% quantile of historical levels, and the convertible bond ETF shows a significant net inflow trend. Looking forward, due to seasonal effects, some institutions with calendar - year assessments such as annuities and securities dealers' proprietary trading may gradually increase their positions in January. There is still a small room for the valuation of convertible bonds to increase. Relative - return investors are advised to allocate small - position and well - balanced non - redeemable equity - biased convertible bonds with suitable premium rates, and absolute - return investors are recommended to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations [2][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Focus (January 5 - January 9, 2026) Stock Market - A - shares rose rapidly after the New Year's Day holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points and the daily trading volume reaching nearly 3 trillion yuan. The technology - growth style led the rise, with sectors such as brain - computer interface, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion performing well, while the dividend sector lagged behind. By industry, most Shenwan primary industries rose, with the comprehensive (14.55%), national defense and military industry (13.63%), media (13.10%), non - ferrous metals (8.56%), and computer (8.49%) sectors leading the gains, and the banking (-1.90%), transportation (0.23%), petroleum and petrochemical (0.29%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (0.98%) sectors performing poorly [1][6][7] Bond Market - At the beginning of the year, the central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals in the open market, but the capital market remained generally balanced and loose. Affected by the continuous rise of the equity market and the strong performance of the commodity market, the bond market was generally weak in shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.88% on Friday, up 1.98bp from the previous week [1][7] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 4.45% for the whole week, the median price rose 3.60%, and the arithmetic average parity calculated by the report rose 5.79%. The overall conversion premium rate decreased by 0.55% compared with the previous week. In terms of individual bonds, the convertible bonds of Seli (AI medical), Dingjie (AI application), Dinglong (semiconductor), Shengxun (AI security), and Borui (innovative drugs) led the gains, while those of Tianchuang (control right change), Dianhua (solid - state battery), Huarui (CNC cutting tools & announced forced redemption), Huanxu (sip module & announced forced redemption), and Maolai (precision optics) led the losses. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 468.504 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 93.701 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [1][7][11] Views and Strategies (January 12 - January 16, 2026) - The convertible bond market sentiment is high under the strengthening of equities and seasonal effects. The equity market rose rapidly after the New Year's Day holiday, and the convertible bond market also performed strongly. From the data of convertible bond holders in December, public funds and social security funds increased their positions, while the positions of insurance and annuity institutions reached the lowest level since 2022, and the reduction of securities dealers' proprietary trading has slowed down. Looking forward, due to seasonal effects, some institutions may gradually increase their positions in January, and the convertible bond valuation still has a small room for improvement. Relative - return investors are advised to allocate non - redeemable equity - biased convertible bonds with suitable premium rates in small positions, and absolute - return investors are recommended to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations [2][16] Valuation Overview - As of January 9, 2026, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan are 51.34%, 41.94%, 29.84%, 26.12%, 23.41%, and 17.71% respectively, located at the 99%/100%, 98%/100%, 96%/99%, 99%/100%, 98%/100%, and 99%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan is - 4.06%, located at the 2%/5% quantiles since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds is 50.47%, located at the 96%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks is 9.41%, located at the 97%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021 [17] Primary Market Tracking - Last week (January 5 - January 9, 2026), Lianrui Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. The underlying stock is Lianrui New Materials, a leading company in the basic chemical industry. The scale of the convertible bond issuance is 695 million yuan, and after deducting the issuance fees, it is planned to be used for high - performance high - speed substrate ultra - pure spherical powder material projects, high - thermal - conductivity high - purity spherical powder material projects, and supplementary working capital. As of the announcement on January 9, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the next week. Last week, there was 1 new company approved for registration by the exchange (Naipu Mining Machinery), 1 new company accepted by the exchange (Shangluo Electronics), and 4 new companies with board proposals (Quanxin Co., Ltd., Fujia Co., Ltd., Yilian Technology, Zhenhua Co., Ltd.). As of now, there are 97 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 150.27 billion yuan, including 7 approved for registration with a total scale of 8.34 billion yuan and 5 approved by the listing committee with a total scale of 2.91 billion yuan [24][25]

Group 1: Drone Industry - The "Tianma-1000" unmanned transport aircraft developed by China Weapon Industry Group successfully completed its first flight test, showcasing good performance across various flight data [1] - The aircraft is designed for logistics transport, emergency rescue, and material delivery, with a maximum altitude of 8,000 meters, a takeoff distance of less than 200 meters, a maximum range of 1,800 kilometers, and a payload capacity of 1 ton [1] - The Chinese civil drone market is expected to reach approximately 146.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 18.3% from 2024 to 2030, indicating strong growth potential [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Industry - The Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange has launched a rare earth price index, which will serve as a price "barometer" and "weather vane" for the rare earth product circulation sector in China [2] - Analysts predict that rare earth prices will continue to rise due to ongoing supply-demand improvements, with upstream processing enterprises likely to dominate profit distribution in the industry [2] Group 3: Fertility Support Policies - The National Health and Wellness Conference emphasized the implementation of fertility support policies, including the issuance of childcare subsidies and the optimization of maternal and child services to stabilize the birth rate [3] Group 4: Satellite Internet - The FCC has approved SpaceX's request to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, increasing its total operational satellites to 15,000 [4] - China's application for over 200,000 satellite constellation plans indicates a strategic national-level initiative to enhance its capabilities in low Earth orbit and compete with Western countries [4] Group 5: Solid State Drives - SanDisk has introduced a new contract requiring full cash prepayment from customers to secure supply quotas for the next 1 to 3 years, driven by strong demand for storage devices in AI infrastructure [5] - The price of enterprise-grade SSDs is expected to increase by over 100% in March, reflecting aggressive price hikes in the NAND market [5] Group 6: Controlled Nuclear Fusion - New Hope has successfully tested its second-generation high-temperature superconducting model TF coil, a critical component for commercial fusion reactors [6] - The hydrogen-boron fusion technology is included in China's national fusion energy strategy, highlighting its potential for clean energy and commercialization [6] Group 7: Lithium Extraction from Salt Lakes - A research team from the Qinghai Salt Lake Research Institute has achieved a significant breakthrough in lithium extraction technology, enhancing lithium recovery rates by 15% to 20% and reducing costs by 30% [7] - The development of a large-scale lithium extraction demonstration line is expected to generate over 600 million yuan in new value, positioning China as a key player in the global lithium supply chain [7] Group 8: Macro and Industry News - The State Council has called for enhanced coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to encourage social capital participation in consumption and investment [8] - The National Business Work Conference aims to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption and optimize the implementation of old-for-new consumption policies [10]

Group 1: Market Trends and Opportunities - A-shares continue to show a trend of oscillating upward, with a focus on structural investment opportunities as the market may experience increased short-term volatility [1] - Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities during market fluctuations, particularly before the Spring Festival, and to pay attention to the performance forecasts of listed companies as the reporting window opens in January [1] - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, robotics, controllable nuclear fusion, and quantum technology, along with a clear recovery path in manufacturing and resource sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment [1][5] Group 2: Regulatory and Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of deepening comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development [2] - The Ministry of Commerce outlines key work for 2026, prioritizing actions to boost consumption, including the promotion of the "Buy in China" brand and the development of new growth points in service consumption [3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - China Galaxy Securities highlights the potential for structural investment opportunities in AI, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace, as well as a clear recovery path in manufacturing and resource sectors [5] - Zhongtai Securities recommends focusing on the robotics sector, which has seen consistent capital inflow and remains a key area of interest [6] - Bank of China Securities notes that AI applications offer a high cost-performance ratio, with the AI industry experiencing various phases of market rotation since 2025 [7] - Yongying Fund anticipates that AI technology will continue to be a market driving force, with a shift in market narrative expected towards fundamental improvements [8] - Huaxia Fund observes an increase in the investment potential of Hong Kong stocks, with improved valuation compared to the U.S. Nasdaq index [9] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Fund reports a sustained high level of activity in the engineering machinery sector, with domestic demand and export growth contributing to an upward trend [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - TMTG plans to start construction of the world's largest commercial fusion power plant in 2026, aiming to accelerate the deployment of fusion energy to support AI development [1] - The initial construction will involve a 50MW fusion power plant, with a long-term goal of achieving a power supply capacity of 350-500MW, targeting first power generation by 2031 [1] - The construction plan marks the first major action following the merger between TMTG and TAE Technologies, which is valued at $6 billion and expected to complete by mid-2026 [1] - The fusion energy sector is experiencing significant momentum, with strong policy support, ongoing advancements in technology, and increasing capital investment [2][3] Summary by Sections Policy Developments - Fusion energy has been explicitly included in the national "14th Five-Year Plan" and is positioned as a core future industry, with unprecedented policy support [2] Industry Progress - Steady progress in the construction of fusion devices is noted, with breakthroughs in various technical paths, including the successful completion of key plasma control coil manufacturing for the JT-60SA and advancements in Tokamak Energy's current capabilities [2] - Other projects, such as the quasi-symmetric stellarator in Chengdu, are on track for completion by 2027, and significant milestones have been achieved in neutral beam heating technology [2] Capital Investment - Recent funding rounds indicate strong investor interest, with Helical Fusion securing $38 million in A-round financing and other startups in the fusion sector also raising significant capital [3] Investment Recommendations - Key midstream equipment companies to focus on include Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Xuguang Electronics, and others [4] - Upstream material companies such as Yongding Co., Western Superconducting, and Jingda Co. are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]