5月12日，中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。市场担忧情绪有所缓和，当天中国、 美国、欧洲等全球主要股票市场指数纷纷上涨，原油期货亦大幅上涨，黄金等避险资产则出现大幅下 跌。13日，亚太股市多数开盘继续走强。 当天，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨5.40%，创4月4日以来新高。热门中概股普涨，跑赢大盘，其中小鹏 汽车、哔哩哔哩涨幅超7%，理想汽车、京东集团、拼多多涨超6%，阿里巴巴、蔚来、百度涨超5%。 截至5月12日收盘，美股三大股指大幅收涨，纳指涨4.35%，道指涨2.81%，标普500指数涨3.26%。美国 科技"七巨头"均收涨，其中亚马逊、脸书、特斯拉、苹果、英伟达涨幅均超过5%。 彭博社称，大型科技股的飙升，使纳斯达克100指数重回涨势。一个月前，该指数曾较之前高位累计暴 跌20%。 数据来源：Wind 欧洲三大股指全线收涨。德国DAX指数涨0.29%，法国CAC40指数涨1.37%，英国富时100指数涨 0.59%。 此外，当天彭博美元指数收盘上涨1%，是自特朗普赢得总统大选以来的最佳表现。投资者押注美联储 今年晚些时候将放缓降息步伐，美国国债收益率上升。 5月12日，金价大幅回调，国际油 ...

Group 1 - The US and China have made substantial progress in trade talks, significantly reducing bilateral tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar reduction [2] - In April, US tariff revenue surged to $16 billion, marking a 130% increase year-on-year, the highest monthly tariff revenue in at least a decade [3] - China continues to enforce export controls on rare earth elements, raising concerns in the US about its ability to fill the supply gap, as over 90% of rare earth processing is done in China [7] Group 2 - In the first four months of the year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 10 million units for the first time, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 52.6% year-on-year [8] - In March, domestic smartphone shipments in China grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with 5G smartphones accounting for 85.3% of total shipments [10] - The People's Bank of China and other authorities have issued opinions to enhance financial support for the Nansha area, aiming to strengthen its role in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [11] Group 3 - Guangdong province has announced measures to stimulate market vitality and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, including 12 specific initiatives [12] - Fujian province plans to increase support for corporate mergers and acquisitions, aiming to establish a 10 billion yuan provincial merger fund [13] - Sichuan province has implemented an action plan for the brain-computer interface and human-computer interaction industry, targeting key breakthroughs by 2027 [14] Group 4 - Zhengzhou has released a plan to promote the high-quality development of the private economy, aiming for significant qualitative and quantitative improvements over three years [15] - The US House of Representatives has proposed a tax bill that aims to reduce taxes by over $4 trillion over the next decade, a key part of the Trump administration's agenda [16] - Apple is considering raising iPhone prices later this year, while President Trump emphasizes Apple's plans to invest $500 billion in the US [23]

日本央行会议意见摘要：一位成员表示，美国贸易政策的走向可能随时转为积极或消极，这也意味着日 本央行的政策路径可能随时发生变化。 ...

日本央行会议意见摘要：一位委员表示：日本央行可能会根据经济和物价改善情况继续加息；一位成员 表示，日本央行除了采取观望立场外别无选择，直到美国贸易政策相关事态在某种程度上稳定下来。 ...

美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）周一表示，美中暂时大幅下调关税，这显然是一种进步。然而，两国之间的关税"仍然很高"，而"中国仍然 是我们进口大量产品的主要贸易伙伴"。 她还称美国经济仍受关税影响。 库格勒说："在这种情况下，我仍然预计物价会上涨，经济会放缓，但幅度不会像北京和华盛顿关系缓和之前那么大。" 【美联储预测预计物价会上涨 经济会放缓】#中美相互24%关税90天内暂停实施# 她此前在一次演讲中强调，贸易政策"似乎可能会产生重大的经济影响，即使关税仍接近当前水平"，"仍远高于近几十年的水平"。 至于关税演变的不确定 性，库格勒女士认为，它"已经对经济产生了影响"，包括进口激增、家庭和企业士气的改变以及他们对未来的看法的改变。 图：阿德里安娜·D·库格勒，世界银行美国执行董事 © 世界银行#海外新鲜事##美联储# 库格勒在为爱尔兰中央银行活动准备的演讲稿中表示："当前很难判断美国经济的实际增速。贸易政策正在演变并可能持续调整，甚至今晨仍有新动态。即 便如此，即使关税维持在当前已宣布的水平，其仍可能产生显著经济影响。同时，围绕关税的不确定性已通过前置采购、市场情绪和预期对经济造成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Mexican Finance Minister indicated that due to a lack of clarity in trade policies, Mexico's economic growth may be more moderate than initially expected [1] Economic Growth - The Mexican economy is facing potential growth challenges attributed to unclear trade policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring changes in trade policy and their impact on productivity and economic outlook [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's attention to trade policy changes indicates a proactive approach to understanding economic dynamics [1] - The focus on productivity suggests that the Federal Reserve is considering how trade policies may influence overall economic efficiency [1] - The implications of trade policy on economic prospects highlight the interconnectedness of global trade and domestic economic health [1]

美联储理事库格勒：贸易政策正在转变，但仍可能导致物价上涨和经济增长放缓。 ...

长江期货贵金属周报 贸易政策谈判在即，价格延续震荡 2025/5/12 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2023/07/03 2023/08/03 2023/09/03 2023/10/03 2023/11/03 2023/12/03 2024/01/03 2024/02/03 2024/03/03 2024/04/03 2024/05/03 2024/06/03 2024/07/03 2024/08/03 2024/09/03 2024/10/03 2024/11/03 2024/12/03 2025/01/03 2025/02/03 2025/03/03 2025/04/03 ...

Economic Indicators - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus reached $165.6 billion, with a goods trade surplus of $237.6 billion and a services trade deficit of $59.3 billion [1] - Japan's national debt has hit a record high for the ninth consecutive year, totaling ¥132.37155 trillion [3] Trade Policies - U.S. Commerce Secretary stated that tariff negotiations with Japan and South Korea are complex and unlikely to reach an agreement in the short term, with a baseline tariff of at least 10% unless partner countries open their economies [1] - U.S. trade advisor emphasized that the EU is a priority in tariff negotiations due to a significant trade deficit, with the EU's VAT system being a focal point [1] Central Bank Perspectives - European Central Bank's Rehn suggested considering interest rate cuts if economic growth slows and inflation decreases due to uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [2] - New York Fed President Williams noted that U.S. trade policies increase economic downside risks, stressing the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations [1][2] Market Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.29% to 41,249.38 points, while S&P 500 decreased by 0.07% to 5,659.91 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.70% to $3,329.10 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.81% to $32.88 per ounce [4] Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil main contract rose by 1.92% to $61.06 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract increased by 1.65% to $63.88 per barrel [5] Bond Market - 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.87 basis points to 3.889%, while 10-year yield decreased by 0.98 basis points to 4.382% [6]