Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has paved the way for a rate cut in September, but the key remains whether the upcoming non-farm payroll data can provide decisive guidance on the pace and magnitude of the cuts [1][9] Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs indicates that future employment growth revisions are likely to be negative due to several factors [2] - The birth-death model may be overly optimistic [3] - Historical data revisions during economic slowdowns tend to be negative [3] - ADP data raises questions about healthcare sector employment growth [3] - Household surveys currently overestimate immigration and employment growth [3] Labor Market Performance - The outlook for employment growth is bleak, with a significant uncertainty regarding balanced employment growth [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates a balanced employment growth level of around 80,000, while the three-month average growth is concerning at 35,000 [3] - The substantial revision of July data has raised concerns for the Federal Reserve about potentially delayed responses to an impending economic slowdown [3] Rate Cut Path - The window for a more significant slowdown in employment data is currently open [4] - Market focus on August non-farm data is heightened due to previous data revisions [4] - The Federal Reserve is on track for a September rate cut, followed by cautious observation of the labor market for signs of further weakness [4] Rate Cut Cycle Completion - Goldman Sachs believes there is a high likelihood that the rate cut cycle will conclude by mid-2026, regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing [5][7] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends in May next year, which may coincide with the end of the rate cut cycle [5] Yield Curve Considerations - The U.S. yield curve is currently flat as of June 26/28, 2026, providing a framework for future policy considerations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is cautiously opening the door to interest rate cuts, but the path ahead is fraught with challenges, as indicated by Chairman Powell's recent statements at the Jackson Hole meeting [1][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Powell describes the labor market as "peculiar," with a stable unemployment rate masking a decline in both labor supply and demand [2]. - He warns against focusing solely on supply-side constraints, such as immigration policy, which may overlook weakening demand signals that could lead to a rapid deterioration in the job market [2]. - A cooling labor market could help prevent a vicious cycle of rising wages and prices driven by tariffs [2]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Inflation Concerns - Despite Powell's efforts to build consensus, there is significant resistance within the Federal Reserve regarding the rationale for rate cuts, with some officials arguing that inflation remains too high [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed concerns that price pressures are increasing and questioned whether tariff-driven price hikes are merely temporary [3]. - External economists, like Michael Strain, believe Powell's remarks underestimate inflation pressures and overstate the risks of a weakening labor market [3]. Group 3: Cautious Easing Strategy - Powell's cautious tone this year contrasts sharply with his more decisive stance from the previous year, reflecting a fundamental shift in economic conditions [5]. - The current environment of high inflation and lower interest rates necessitates a more restrained approach to monetary easing [5]. - The market should not expect rapid rate cuts unless there is a significant and sudden deterioration in the labor market [6].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Situation - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium was well-received, providing clarity on interest rate expectations [1][2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in managing inflation, which is at its highest levels in 40 years, while avoiding a severe recession [3][10] - Recent economic data has shown mixed signals, with labor market data weakening and inflation indicators fluctuating, complicating the Fed's decision-making [6][8] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following Powell's speech, the market significantly increased the probability of a rate cut in September to 91%, up from 75% the previous day [12] - The current federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, and a potential rate cut could support stock prices and lower borrowing costs, particularly in the housing market [13] - Despite the bullish sentiment, caution is advised as the market is near all-time highs and future economic data could alter the outlook on rate cuts [14][15] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impacts - Powell indicated that inflation risks are tilted to the upside due to tariffs, which may have a short-lived impact on consumer prices [10][11] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, while core inflation rose by 3.1%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [15] - The uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs on inflation remains a concern for the Fed, as previous assumptions about transitory inflation have proven incorrect [15]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in response to economic slowdown and rising labor market risks, despite ongoing inflation concerns [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience amid high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, but significant slowdowns in labor markets and economic growth have been observed [1][6]. - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% [6]. - The core consumer price index rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [6]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock indices surged, with the Dow Jones reaching a new intraday high of 45,748.82 points [1][2]. - The market interpreted Powell's comments as a strong signal for potential rate cuts in September, leading to significant gains across major indices [1][2]. Political Pressures - Powell faces unprecedented political pressure from President Trump, who has been advocating for aggressive rate cuts and influencing Fed appointments [4][5]. - The upcoming September meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in recent years, as Powell navigates economic challenges alongside political and market pressures [5]. Regional Implications - A potential rate cut by the Fed could positively impact Asian economies, particularly smaller open economies that rely heavily on trade [8]. - The analysis suggests that while inflation pressures in Asia are low, many central banks are positioned to lower rates, providing opportunities for investment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation indicates an increase in downside risks to employment, which may necessitate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4][5]. Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is described as being in a "peculiar balance" due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, suggesting increased risks to employment [4][12]. - Recent employment growth has slowed to an average of only 35,000 jobs per month, significantly below the projected 168,000 jobs per month for 2024 [12]. - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.2%, but remains historically low, indicating stability in labor market indicators [12]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Short-term inflation risks are skewed to the upside, while employment risks are skewed to the downside, creating a challenging situation for monetary policy [5][16]. - Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices, with the total PCE price rising by 2.6% year-over-year, and core PCE increasing by 2.9% [14][15]. - The assumption that tariff impacts on prices are mostly one-time adjustments is gaining confidence, although the timing and extent of these impacts remain uncertain [8][15]. Monetary Policy Framework Adjustments - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has been revised to remove the goal of achieving an average inflation rate of 2% over time and the reliance on deviations from full employment as a decision-making basis [5][21]. - The revised framework emphasizes the need for flexibility in monetary policy to adapt to various economic conditions and structural changes [18][22]. - The commitment to maintaining long-term inflation expectations anchored at 2% is reiterated as essential for achieving both maximum employment and price stability [23][25].

关于劳动力市场，鲍威尔表示，“总体来看，劳动力市场虽处于平衡，但这是一种因劳动力供需双双大幅放缓所致的‘奇特平衡’。这种异常形势暗示就业的下行风险正在增加。”“短期内，通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行——这是一个有挑战的局面。” ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in response to economic slowdown and rising labor market risks during his speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, marking a significant moment in his tenure [1][2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, but there are signs of significant slowdown in the labor market and economic growth [1] - Recent labor data revealed that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2% [5] - The core consumer price index rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [5] Political and Market Pressures - Powell faces unprecedented political pressure from President Trump, who is advocating for aggressive rate cuts and influencing Fed decision-making [2][4] - The upcoming September meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in recent years, as Powell navigates between economic challenges and political pressures [4] Future Projections - Analysts predict that the Fed may officially begin the rate-cutting process in September, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut and a total reduction of approximately 100 basis points by mid-2024 [6] - The current low unemployment rate does not preclude the possibility of rate cuts, as the labor market is undergoing a "payroll recession" rather than a traditional unemployment recession [6] Implications for Asia - A potential rate cut by the Fed could positively impact Asian economies, particularly smaller open economies that rely heavily on trade, helping to alleviate export slowdown pressures [7] - The investment landscape in Asia may present numerous opportunities, especially in sectors related to high dividends and artificial intelligence, as central banks in the region have room to maneuver with rate cuts [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that inflation is facing upward risks while the labor market is facing downward risks according to Federal Reserve official Collins [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing cautious sentiment as investors' bets on an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve are cooling down, with expectations for a September rate cut dropping from 90% to 70% [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Several Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, diminishing market expectations for an immediate rate cut, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stating she would not support easing policy if a decision were required immediately [2]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that only one rate cut this year is appropriate, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid emphasizes that inflation risks currently outweigh labor market risks [2]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledges some positive inflation data but warns that it could be a temporary phenomenon, contributing to a hawkish outlook [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - Mixed economic data complicates the Fed's decision-making, with initial jobless claims increasing, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, while the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing activity has risen to its fastest pace since 2022, showcasing economic resilience [5]. - European major stock indices opened lower, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.30%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.15%, and France's CAC40 down 0.19% [5]. - The Japanese 30-year government bond yield reached a new high of 3.21%, marking the highest level since its introduction in 1999 [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Analyst Insights - Analysts warn that market expectations may be overly optimistic regarding a dovish shift from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with some predicting a cautious, data-driven stance from the Fed [6]. - If Powell maintains a neutral or hawkish position regarding a September rate cut, it could lead to further strengthening of the dollar, as investors seem to have priced in a dovish outlook [6]. - In individual stock movements, tech giant Nvidia's shares fell approximately 1.9% in alternative trading [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes reveal internal divisions and complexities regarding the economic outlook, with a notable debate on interest rate cuts [2][3] - Only two decision-makers, Bowman and Waller, supported a 25 basis point rate cut, highlighting concerns over potential labor market weaknesses [2][3] - The majority of decision-makers prefer to maintain the federal funds rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, believing it is suitable for the current economic conditions [2][3] Group 2 - Recent employment data supports Bowman and Waller's concerns, showing July job additions significantly below market expectations and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate [3] - The labor force participation rate has dropped to its lowest level since the end of 2022, and revisions to May and June job data indicate a reduction of over 250,000 jobs [3] - This historical data revision challenges the optimistic market outlook regarding the strength of the labor market and complicates the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts [3] Group 3 - Silver prices are experiencing slight declines, currently reported at $37.82 per ounce, with fluctuations between $37.77 and $37.97 [1] - Technical analysis indicates that silver is forming a symmetrical triangle, with potential upward movement if it breaks above the 100-period moving average [4] - A confirmed breakout above the triangle could target levels of $38.20 and $38.74, while failure to clear the 100-period moving average may lead to bearish trends [4]