【5 月 13 日沪铜主力合约市场动态】5 月 13 日，沪铜主力合约开盘价 78080 元/吨，最高 78190 元/ 吨，最低 77620 元/吨，收盘价78090 元/吨，跌幅 0.19%。全天成交量 9.1 万手，减仓 3.4 万手。持仓量 18.2 万手，减仓 0.6 万手。 宏观方面，中美关税问题谈判有进展，市场避险情绪降温。美国银行调研显 示，26%的基金经理认为将硬着陆，低于 4 月的 49%。 供给上，铜精矿供应紧张。虽技术进步和勘探 能力提升，新矿源开发加快，但短期内全球铜精矿供应增量有限，相对铜冶炼产能增长，供应有较大缺 口，冶炼厂竞争加剧，进口矿加工费下行压力大，利润承压。 需求方面，SMM预计 5 月精铜杆企业开 工率环比下滑至 71.01%，下滑 2.83 个百分点，同比上升 8.17 个百分点。5 月漆包线行业开工率预计为 69.81%，环比下降 6.98 个百分点。4 月中国主流光伏组件企业光伏组件产量 55GW，环比上涨 3.38%， 同比持平。4 月光伏组件国内企业产能开工率 56.1%。Mysteel 预计 2025 年 5 月光伏组件排产约 52GW，环比下降 5.45 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in gold prices due to international market fluctuations, with domestic gold jewelry prices dropping below 1,000 yuan per gram [1][6][10] - On May 12, international gold futures fell by 3.06%, closing at $3,241.80 per ounce, while spot gold dropped nearly 3%, falling below the $3,250 mark [3][10] - The recent trend shows that spot gold has decreased in four out of the last five trading days, with a notable drop of 2.73% on May 12, where it lost up to $118 per ounce during trading [6][10] Group 2 - The market sentiment has shifted due to easing geopolitical tensions and trade agreements between the US and UK, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold [10][12] - Despite short-term volatility, global central bank gold purchases remain strong, with the World Gold Council reporting a net purchase of 244 tons in Q1 2025 [12][14] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves to 7.377 million ounces as of the end of April, marking a continuous increase for six months [13] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the current high volatility in gold prices may lead to a correction, with potential upward pressure on inflation in the US later this year, which could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [14] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish long-term outlook on gold, forecasting that spot gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4,000 by mid-2026 [14]

受访专家称，短期调整不改中长期上涨趋势 本报记者 孟珂 "中美经贸高层会谈缓解了贸易摩擦的不确定性，市场避险情绪回落，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力下降，短期内金价面临 回调压力。同时，这也推动了美元指数持续上涨和美债收益率逐步回升，若美联储因经济改善推迟降息，黄金价格可能继续承 压。"东源投资首席分析师刘祥东告诉《证券日报》记者。 尽管近期金价有所回落，但受访专家普遍认为，从中长期看，在地缘政治动荡、全球经济不确定性加剧背景下，受避险情 绪和投资需求推动，叠加全球央行持续购金，金价或仍将维持高位震荡。 李心悦进一步分析称，受美元信用问题和购金需求支撑，黄金价格或将保持上行逻辑。一方面，美国政府债务上限危机问 题持续挑战美元信用权威性，为黄金提供了上行动力；另一方面，去美元化背景下全球央行购金热度不减，据世界黄金协会数 据，2025年一季度全球官方黄金储备增加244吨，对金价形成支撑。 世界黄金协会此前发布的2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在金价创纪录地突破3000美元/盎司大关的情况 下，一季度的全球黄金需求总量（包含场外交易）达1206吨，同比增长1%。其中，黄金ETF需求复苏，推动一季度黄金投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced risk aversion following the U.S.-China trade agreement, which has led to a more balanced market dynamic for gold [3][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On May 13, gold prices in the Asian market opened at $3,239.25 per ounce for spot London gold and $3,240.70 per ounce for New York futures, reflecting a drop of 2.69% and 2.76% respectively from the previous day [1]. - Major Chinese gold retailers, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao, have reduced the price of gold jewelry to below 1,000 yuan per gram, with significant decreases of 16 yuan and 13 yuan per gram respectively over two days [1][2]. Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and suspending 24% of the remaining tariffs for 90 days, while China has reciprocated by canceling 91% of its counter-tariffs [4]. - This trade agreement is expected to alleviate pressure on both countries' export sectors and reduce uncertainty for Chinese manufacturing, positively impacting investor sentiment [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The U.S. dollar has seen its largest increase since the November 2024 presidential election, and U.S. Treasury yields have risen, which poses a challenge for gold prices as it increases the cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to December, while Citibank has also delayed its prediction from June to July [5][6]. Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - As of April, China's gold reserves increased to 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous six-month increase, with a total rise of nearly 1 million ounces (approximately 28 tons) over this period [7]. - Global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in the first quarter, aligning with the average quarterly purchase levels over the past three years, indicating sustained demand for gold as a reserve asset [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook for Gold - The low proportion of gold in China's foreign exchange reserves (5.5% as of December 2024) compared to the global average of around 15% suggests a continued trend of increasing gold purchases by the People's Bank of China [8]. - The ongoing geopolitical instability and the need to optimize reserve structures are driving central banks to enhance their gold holdings, which is expected to support gold prices in the long term [7][8].

避险情绪降温，黄金大跌险守3200美元整数关口，抄底机会到了吗？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点 击进入直播间 相关链接 正在直播中 ...

一则关税的消息引爆全球金融市场，美元指数暴涨，黄金暴跌，走势很明显，力度很大，现在市场避险情绪消退，短时间内如果没有其他刺激因 素，美元，黄金可能需要持续一段时间的负相关。最怕的就是突然的消息打乱正常看盘节奏，周一黄金虽然走出大跌空间，但山海还是维持低多 思路，做了有效的低位多单，并且避开了大跌的风险。周二关注这波空头是否有延续性，盘中变化也比较重要。前面强调过，现在黄金的表现不 能看一看一个方向，随时都可以走出暴涨暴跌的空间，因此，日内的变化还要看细节表现。期货方面，沪金，融通金也不太好做，建议把注意放 在沪银上，做沪银的稳健性交易。 周一的市场影响不必过分强调了，中美降低对等关税，市场出现较大反应，美元指数大涨至101.7附近，黄金则单日再跌80美金至3207低点附 近。上个交易日山海还强调过，近期黄金被市场因素影响很大，多空势均力敌，难解难分，很可能会出现暴涨暴跌的空间，要注意多空在涨跌后 的延续性，并且强调，近期的最大区间看3500/3200，跌破3200后就要注意黄金可能会出现弱势转空的风险，那么，既然周一黄金在下跌后并没 有破位3200，而且还走出了有效反弹，最高在3250附近，所以，可以看到，多 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the positive market reaction following the release of the joint statement from the US and China regarding trade talks, leading to a decrease in investor risk aversion [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82% to 3369.24 points, with significant gains in other indices such as the Shenzhen Component (+1.72%) and the ChiNext Index (+2.63%) [2] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.98% to 23549.46 points, marking the highest closing since March 27, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 5.16% [4] Group 2 - Traditional safe-haven assets like gold and treasury futures saw declines, with gold prices dropping by 3.5% to $3208.63 per ounce, and 30-year treasury futures falling by 1.31% [5] - The US Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 2-year yield increasing by nearly 12 basis points to 4.00%, the highest since April 9, and the 10-year yield reaching a one-month high of 4.447% [5] - Digital currencies experienced a positive trend, with Bitcoin rising to $104,100 and Ethereum increasing to $2,500, marking a weekly gain of over 40% for Ethereum [9]

新华财经上海5月12日电（葛佳明）5月12日，全球资本市场避险情绪降温，风险偏好获得提振，港股尾 盘急速拉升。进入欧洲交易时段，欧洲三大股指全线高开高走，美股三大股指期货大幅走强，国际油价 显著上涨，黄金重挫。 避险需求急速下降，黄金价格出现剧烈波动，日内下跌一度超过100美元，现货黄金日内跌幅扩大至 3%，最低触及3216美元/盎司；COMEX黄金主力期货合约跌幅超3%，最低触及3222美元／盎司，已经 跌破了5月1日的阶段前低，创4月14日以来新低。 进入5月，国际金价大幅震荡似乎正成为常态。在业内人士看来，考虑到地缘政治仍有不稳定因素、关 税风波仍存变数的情况下，近期金价动荡在情理之中，投资者尤其是期货投资者需要加强风险意识，普 通投资者应理性对待，避免盲目"追涨杀跌"，防范投资风险。 布伦特原油期货和美国WTI原油价格均延续上周反弹趋势，WTI原油一度涨近3%，最高触及63.41美元 ／桶，近5个交易日涨幅一度逼近10%，布伦特原油价格一度涨近4%，最高触及66.3美元／桶，近5个交 易日振幅达到10%。分析师表示，关税问题的缓和，一定程度上缓解了市场对于美国经济衰退的预期， 致使投资者预期原油需求或 ...

中美经贸高层会谈 5 月 10 日至 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美 经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰当地时间 11 日晚在出席中 方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、 深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。避险情绪 减弱，欧美股市上涨，贵金属转为高位震荡略偏空的走势。 5 月议息会议之后，市场对美联储降息的预期再度走弱，鲍威 尔在讲话中明确提出通胀上行风险和经济下行风险，在 5 月议息会 议和鲍威尔讲话之后，市场对美联储降息的预期再度推迟，近期美 联储官员讲话，依然对降息偏谨慎，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示， 美国贸易政策正在增加经济下行风险，高不确定性下维持通胀预期 稳定至为关键。美联储巴尔金指出，并非所有企业都能通过涨价消 化关税成本。美联储博斯蒂克称，在不确定性增加之际调整利率并 非审慎之举，降息预期减弱，短期利空贵金属。 美国一季度 GDP 年化季环比初值录得-0.3%，低于市场预期的 0.3%，较上季度的 2.4%大幅回落，为 2022 年一季度以来首次转负。 美国 4 月份就业增长强劲，失业率保持稳定，这表明特朗普贸易政 策的不确定性尚未对招聘计划产生重大影响。美 ...

黄金高位跳水，黄金ETF吸金放缓 中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，黄金避险溢价大跌。 5月12日，截至发稿，国际市场现货黄金盘中跌破3300美元/盎司关口，最低触及3208美元/盎司。内盘多只黄金ETF跟跌，截至收盘跌逾2%。 期货市场上，沪金主力合约收跌2%，报772元/克，盘中触及近一个月低点767元/克。 5月以来，伦敦金现和COMEX黄金期货主力合约震荡下跌，黄金ETF吸金趋势也明显放缓。第一财经记者据Wind统计，截至4月底，以SGE黄金9999为投资 目标的7只黄金ETF总规模已接近1522亿元，随后因金价高位回落，规模一度缩至1450亿元；当前金价进一步下探，部分资金逢低补仓，规模回升至1490亿 元。 金价回调还是转折 多空博弈加剧 具体看来，国际金价在两周内逐渐跌破每盎司3500美元、3400美元和3300美元关口，交易多头纷纷抛售止盈。 国内黄金ETF市场上，资金约在4月底大规模涌入，目前已出现逐步离场的趋势。截至5月12日，以SGE黄金9999为投资目标的7只黄金ETF规模总计1490亿 元。 从资金动态看，博弈情绪明显。4月份以来，黄金ETF规模快速增长，连续4周吸金超百亿元，分别在截 ...