Export Performance - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and seasonal levels, with a cumulative export value of $1,169.06 billion for the first four months, reflecting a 6.4% year-on-year growth[11][1]. - The export growth was supported by a significant increase in trade with ASEAN and the EU, with ASEAN becoming China's largest trading partner, showing a 20.8% year-on-year growth in exports to this region[17][1]. - Exports to the US saw a notable decline of 21.03% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the US's 145% tariffs on Chinese goods[26][1]. Trade Dynamics - The trade policies of the US have led to a decrease in export share to the US, while shares to the EU and ASEAN have increased, indicating a strengthening of cooperation among non-US countries[14][1]. - The overall trade environment remains optimistic, with potential for policy adjustments in July that could influence export dynamics[39][1]. Key Risks - Future export performance faces uncertainties, particularly regarding the extension of the US tariff exemption period and the outcomes of ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China[42][1]. - Risks include the potential escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which could adversely affect trade flows and economic stability[43][1].

目 录 01 豆粕：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 01 豆粕：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-05-12 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 联 系 人：姚 杨 执业编号:F03113968 01 02 油脂：供应压力仍存，期价反弹受限 豆粕 ：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 ◆ 期现端：截止5月9日，华东现货报价3110元/吨，周度下跌190元/吨，M2509合约收盘至2899元/吨，周度下跌21元/吨，基差报价09+200元/吨，周度 下跌150元/吨。周度豆粕价格偏弱运行，随着大豆到港增加，油厂开机率上扬以及备货结束，大豆豆粕进入累库周期，现货价格快速回落。M2509合约受 到港压制以及供应压力后移影响，价格走势偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：5月美豆UDSA供需报告即将公布，市场预估25/26年度美豆种植面积维持在8350万英亩；单产方面，市场维持52.5蒲/英亩。但受中美贸易摩擦 影响，预计本次报告下调美豆出口上调国内压榨。当前美豆主产区天气良好，利于大豆播种，截至5月4日美豆已完成 30%的播种率，单周推进了 ...

Group 1 - Southeast Asia's importance has increased significantly in the context of US-China rivalry, with ASEAN now being the fifth-largest economy globally, growing from 5.0% of the world economy in 2001 to 6.4% in 2023 [1] - ASEAN countries have also become a crucial player in global trade, with their share of world goods exports rising from 6.2% in 2001 to 7.6% in 2023, nearly equivalent to the combined exports of Africa and Latin America [1] - The economic growth rate of Southeast Asian countries has outpaced the global average, with an annual growth rate of 5.0% compared to the global average of 3.0% since the 21st century [1][2] Group 2 - The geopolitical competition between major powers has raised questions about whether Southeast Asia's development space is shrinking or expanding, particularly in the context of China's relationship with Southeast Asia amid US pressure [2] - The rise of East Asia has altered the economic landscape, with countries like Japan and the "Four Asian Tigers" achieving significant GDP growth relative to the US [3][4] - The "flying geese" model describes a dynamic division of labor in East Asia, where higher-income countries transfer outdated industries to lower-income countries, fostering regional economic development [5][6] Group 3 - The emergence of value-added trade has transformed Southeast Asia's trade patterns, with countries increasingly focusing on specific stages of production rather than complete goods [7][8] - Vietnam has become a prime example of a Southeast Asian country benefiting from value chain trade, with its foreign value-added exports rising significantly since joining the WTO in 2007 [13][20] - The US-China trade tensions have led to a shift in Southeast Asia's trade dynamics, with countries like Vietnam enhancing their trade relationships with the US while maintaining ties with China [20][24] Group 4 - The geopolitical landscape has influenced Southeast Asia's trade relationships, with a notable increase in dependence on exports to the US, which rose from 8.5% to 14.8% of ASEAN's exports between 2018 and 2022 [17][24] - The region's internal market development has been impacted by geopolitical tensions, as evidenced by the decline in intra-ASEAN trade from 24.0% to 21.3% of total exports [24] - The ongoing US-China rivalry presents both opportunities and challenges for Southeast Asian countries, as they navigate their positions between the two powers while seeking to enhance their economic development [20][22]

80%这个数字，不像是在谈判，更像是在赌气。5月9日晚，北京时间，特朗普在社交平台上的一句话，把中美之间本就紧张的贸易 氛围再度点燃。对中国商品加征80%的关税？还说是斯科特·贝森特建议的。这话一出来，市场震了一下，人心也跟着抖了抖。可 转过头来看，美国方面却还是在催促中国加大进口美国产品的节奏。这一唱一和，实在让人摸不着头脑。 有人说，这不过是特朗普一贯的"先砸桌子，再要好处"的套路。可问题是，这个桌子他砸了好几年了，关税从10%加到25%，从单 一商品扩到大范围征收，结果呢？美国对华贸易逆差没怎么减少，反倒是美国企业和消费者先喊疼了。美国全国零售联合会的报告 早就指出，加征关税最终是美国人自己买单。这不是谁的观点，是数据摆在那儿的现实。 把时间倒回去看。2018年开始，美国陆续对数千亿美元的中国产品征收关税。一年之后，美国农业出口缩水，制造业陷入不确定， 苹果手机、玩具、自行车的售价都上涨。连沃尔玛都不得不提醒顾客：东西可能要涨价了。而这一轮80%的说法，更像是特朗普为 了选战拉票抛出的"强硬姿态"，是政治算盘在精打细算。 但问题是，对中国挥舞大棒，就能解决美国自身的问题吗？恐怕没那么简单。美国制造回流口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high tariffs exceeding 120% between China and the U.S. are unsustainable due to the strong economic interdependence, leading to expectations for negotiations to lower tariffs [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Tariff Overview - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, starting with a 10% rate and escalating to 145% without prior communication with China, contrasting with the previous trade conflict where negotiations were ongoing [2][4] - China responded with tariffs of 125%, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions compared to the 2018 trade disputes [4][5] Negotiation Dynamics - Recent statements from Chinese officials suggest a willingness to engage in discussions, but emphasize that negotiations should not be limited to tariff reductions alone [3][5] - The U.S. has introduced policies that restrict investments and impose additional scrutiny on Chinese companies, which should also be part of any negotiation framework [5][6] Broader Economic Implications - The U.S. Trade Representative's actions against China's maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries could severely impact China's shipping and shipbuilding sectors, which dominate globally [6] - The potential for a U.S. debt crisis could create conditions favorable for negotiations, as the U.S. faces significant debt pressures [10][11] Political Context - The current U.S. administration is characterized by a strong anti-China sentiment, driven by key advisors advocating for aggressive trade policies [7][8][9] - The unpredictability of U.S. political dynamics may lead to shifts in negotiation strategies, especially under pressure from domestic economic conditions [12] Long-term Outlook - The ongoing trade conflict may be just the beginning of a broader struggle between the U.S. and China, with both sides likely to continue exerting pressure in various domains [13][14]

人民日报钟声：指望一两次谈判解决问题并不现实 中方对谈判的复杂性有清醒认知 智通财经5月10日电，人民日报钟声文章《平等对话是解决大国间问题的正确之道》指出，即将在瑞士 举行的中美经贸高层会谈备受国际社会瞩目。在全球经济复苏乏力的背景下，这场对话被视为化解贸易 摩擦的一个契机，各方期待中美通过建设性沟通，为世界经济增长注入确定性。谈，是化解分歧的必要 之举，但指望一两次谈判解决问题并不现实。中方对谈判的复杂性有清醒认知。中国古话讲"听其言而 观其行"，诚意需要用行动丈量。美方想要通过谈判解决问题，就要正视单边关税措施给自身和世界带 来的严重负面影响，正视国际经贸规则、公平正义和各界理性声音，拿出谈的诚意，纠正错误做法，而 不是说一套、做一套，或翻手为云覆手为雨。中方始终对对话持开放态度，也有足够耐心和定力，以及 奉陪到底的底气。无论是打还是谈，中方维护自身发展利益的决心不会改变，捍卫国际公平正义、维护 国际经贸秩序的立场和目标不会改变。 ...

Trade and Economic Insights - In April, China's exports grew by 9.3% year-on-year, showcasing resilience despite US-China trade tensions [1] - For the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, with exports at 8.39 trillion yuan (up 7.5%) and imports at 5.75 trillion yuan (down 4.2%) [1] - High-tech products saw significant performance, with imports and exports totaling 1.52 trillion yuan, a 7.4% increase [1] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 12.6%, while imports from ASEAN rose by 4% [1] - The US-China trade friction is leading some Chinese exporters to reroute products through neighboring countries to mitigate high tariffs [2] UK-US Trade Agreement - The UK and US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the UK making concessions on agricultural imports in exchange for reduced tariffs on UK car exports [3] - The agreement includes a reduction of tariffs on UK car exports to the US from 27.5% to 10% and eliminates tariffs on steel and aluminum [3] - The deal is seen as a framework agreement, with further negotiations needed on various details [4] Semiconductor Industry - Semiconductor giant SMIC reported a 166.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1, reaching approximately 1.356 billion yuan, with revenue up 29.4% to about 16.301 billion yuan [7] - The company anticipates a revenue decline of 4% to 6% in Q2, with gross margins expected to range between 18% and 20% [7] - SMIC's performance is influenced by increased domestic demand and preemptive stockpiling by overseas clients due to US tariff policies [8] AI Development Initiatives - OpenAI announced a new global AI development initiative called "OpenAI for Countries," aiming to assist nations in developing AI infrastructure [9] - The initial goal is to launch 10 projects globally, funded by OpenAI and participating governments, although specific project locations have not been disclosed [9] Automotive Safety Standards - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China is seeking public input on a new mandatory national standard for automotive door handles, addressing safety concerns related to hidden door handles [11] - The initiative follows incidents highlighting the safety risks associated with hidden door handles in electric vehicles [12] Banking Sector Trends - Several banks have reintroduced cash installment services with interest rates dropping to as low as 2.76%, following competitive pricing strategies [13] - The cash installment rates are not subject to the same regulatory limits as consumer loans, allowing for lower rates [13] - The banking sector is facing pressure to maintain profitability amid declining net profits and increased competition for new loans [14]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 高关税之下，出口结构有变化 据海关总署，2025 年 4 月出口总值为 3157 亿美元，同比增长 8.1%，高于市场预期的 1.9%，前值为 12.4%；进口总值为 2195 亿美元，同比下降 0.2%，预期-5.9%，前值-4.3%。4月以来中美贸易紧张局势逐渐升 级，美国对华关税提高至 145%，中国也采取了反制措施，如何看待 4 月份进出口数据？ 一是美国加征关税的影响开始显现。4 月对美出口同比下降 20.9%，为 2023 年 7 月以来最低增速；拖累出 口同比约 3 个百分点。美国 10%基准关税于 4 月 5 日生效，其他更高对等关税于 4 月 9 日陆续生效。而对来自 中国（含香港）的小包免税待遇，于 5 月 2 日取消。根据美国海关发布的文件，美国关税生效之前已装船并处于 最终运输模式，在规定时间前到达美国，可豁免关税。因而 4 月对美出口受到关税的部分影响，更全面的影响可 能体现在 5 月数据之中。 美国加征关税冲击下，周边经济体出口走势分化。韩国 4 月出口同比增幅为 3 ...

图1：4月进出口表现好于市场预期 4月我国进出口金额同比增速表现好于市场预期，出口增速下滑但仍保持较快增长，进口降幅收窄，贸易顺差 大幅扩张。 按美元计价，进出口总金额5,352亿美元，同比增长4.6%。其中，出口3,156.9亿美元，同比 8.1%（3月12.4%，市场预期0.7%）；进口2,195.1亿美元，同比-0.2%（3月-4.3%，市场预期-6.9%）；贸易顺差 961.8亿美元，同比扩张241.9亿美元（+33.6%）。4月外需下行压力初步显现，重点港口货物和集装箱吞吐量 先下降后回升，出口集装箱运价指数环比下滑4.5%。 分地区看， 相较3月，我国对美国以及非美地区出口增速表现明显分化。4月对美出口增速大幅下降30.1pct 至-21.0%，对非美地区出口增速上行0.1pct至13.0%。非美地区中，对新兴市场如东盟出口增速大幅上行9.2pct 至20.8%，对拉美（17.3%）、非洲（25.3%）出口增速下行但保持较高增速。对欧盟增速下行2.0pct至8.3%， 对日本（7.8%）、 中国台湾地区（15.5%）出口增速提升。随着中美贸易摩擦冲击进一步显现，我国对美和对 非美地区出口表现或继续 ...

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