Group 1 - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting highlighted that the global economy is facing increasing uncertainty and complex challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite global economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties, Brent crude oil prices have shown strong resilience, averaging $70.75 per barrel since January [1] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - A key factor supporting oil prices is that nearly all oil surpluses in the second quarter have been absorbed by China's strategic petroleum reserves, tightening global supply and preventing price declines [1] - Strong consumer demand continues to support oil prices, with robust demand for road travel and air travel [1] Group 2: Market Influences - U.S. tariff policies have prompted importers to procure crude oil in advance to avoid potential future restrictions, providing additional support for oil prices [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3302 per ounce, following a decline of over 1% on Tuesday, where it hit a low of $3287.06 per ounce, marking a one-week low [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors including optimistic trade negotiations, a strengthening dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the complexities of Trump's tariff policies [1][4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which could influence future gold price movements [1] Group 2 - Recent optimistic signals from U.S. trade negotiations with major partners have reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - President Trump warned of tariffs on 14 countries but postponed the effective date to August 1, allowing for further negotiations, which has led to market expectations for more lenient trade policies [3] - Japan and South Korea are actively seeking to mitigate the impact of tariffs through negotiations, with Japan focusing on concessions in the automotive sector while protecting agricultural interests [3] Group 3 - The global financial market's reaction to Trump's tariff policies has been cautious, with mixed performances in major indices, indicating investor hesitation amid trade negotiations [4] - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected to continue due to optimistic trade sentiments, a strong dollar, and rising Treasury yields, while long-term uncertainties and inflation pressures may support gold [4] - Investors are advised to monitor developments in trade negotiations, monetary policy, and macroeconomic data to identify potential opportunities in gold prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating potential future rate cuts depending on mid-term inflation pressures and global economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The RBNZ's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects a cautious approach towards the current economic outlook, despite some members advocating for a reduction to 3% to support economic activity [1]. - The current inflation rate in New Zealand stands at 2.5%, which is above the RBNZ's target range of 1%-3% [1]. - The RBNZ anticipates that the annual consumer price inflation rate may rise to the upper limit of the target range by mid-2025 but is expected to gradually decline to around 2% by early 2026 [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - The RBNZ acknowledges that global policy uncertainties, rising trade protectionism, and tariff issues are hindering economic growth and may delay New Zealand's economic recovery [1]. - Analysts suggest that the market has already priced in the RBNZ's decision, with future focus shifting to the bank's assessments of inflation, tariffs, and global economic data [2]. - The RBNZ's future monetary policy will adopt a "data-dependent" approach, with upcoming economic indicators and geopolitical changes being crucial for decision-making [2].

Group 1 - The global economic uncertainty remains high, with unclear implications from U.S. tariffs and responses from other countries, although financial markets have rebounded due to the avoidance of extreme scenarios [3] - Domestic private demand is gradually recovering, with actual household income increasing and some financial pressure indicators easing, despite some industries reporting weak demand [3] - Labor market indicators show continued tightness, with low underemployment rates and widespread labor shortages reported by businesses [3] Group 2 - The silver market experienced fluctuations, opening at $37.15, reaching a high of $37.217, and closing at $36.761, forming a long lower shadow hammer pattern [4] - The silver price is currently trading around $36.77, with potential targets for downward movement at $36.6 and $36.4 [4] - The market sentiment indicates a cautious approach, with recommendations for short positions above $37 and preparation for potential exits [4]

声明中还强调，全球经济不确定性高企，尤其是美国关税政策演变或对贸易活动及企业投资决策造成冲 击。尽管澳大利亚受美国关税直接影响有限（钢铁、铝等行业除外），但生产力委员会模型显示，全球 贸易政策不确定性可能拖累澳GDP增长0.37%。国内方面，劳动力市场仍紧张，工资增速高位徘徊，叠 加生产率疲软导致单位劳动力成本高企，加剧通胀压力。 （文章来源：新华财经） 澳洲联储明确维持物价稳定与充分就业为首要目标，承认私人需求复苏步伐或慢于预期，但领先指标显 示劳动力市场存超预期韧性可能。声明特别提及货币政策将保持灵活，若国际动态对澳大利亚经济产生 实质影响，将"果断应对"。 新华财经北京7月8日电（崔凯）澳洲联储意外决定将现金利率目标维持在3.85%，未如市场预期降息25 个基点。尽管自2022年峰值以来，通胀已显著下降，并且当前利率较五个月前已下调50个基点，但鉴于 全球经济不确定性高企以及贸易政策对经济活动的潜在负面影响，委员会认为需等待更多信息以确认通 胀可持续回落至2-3%的目标区间。 澳洲联储承诺将密切关注数据变化和风险评估的发展，以指导未来政策决策。值得注意的是，本次会议 决议以6票赞成、3票反对通过，反映了 ...

Core Insights - The German mechanical and equipment manufacturing industry is experiencing a 9% year-on-year increase in actual new orders for May, indicating a positive signal despite a low base last year and ongoing global uncertainties, particularly the US-EU trade disputes [1][1][1] Industry Summary - The German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association reported a 9% increase in new orders in May compared to the same month last year [1] - The chief economist of the association, Johannes Gerner, expressed a "cautiously optimistic" outlook for the industry in the second half of the year, reflecting the order data [1][1] - There is a strong call for the EU and the US to quickly resolve trade disputes to prevent further escalation of the situation, as global economic uncertainty remains high [1][1][1]

【冠通研究】 易涨难跌 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 1 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走尾盘拉涨。中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 连升两月至 49.7，新订单指 数回升至扩张区 16040 间，非制造业延续扩张。特朗普的高级贸易官员正在缩减与外国 达成全面对等协议的雄心，寻求达成范围更小的协议，以避免美国重新征收关税。伊朗 驻联合国大使强势表态：铀浓缩是伊朗不可剥夺的权利，永远不会停止！基本面来看， 供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库存端全 球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目前铜去 化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，截至截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需 求增加，带动表观消费量的提振。全球经济不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下 游也多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主，6 月系消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下 房地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing increasing volatility in inflation, which is influenced by global economic uncertainties and supply shocks [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - ECB President Lagarde highlighted that uncertainty will continue to be a major characteristic of the global economy, potentially leading to more unstable inflation [1] - The ECB concluded that "appropriate and forceful or persistent" policy actions are necessary to ensure that price growth returns to the target level of 2% [1] - Lagarde acknowledged that while the ECB expects inflation rates to remain around this target in the coming years, there are risks due to changes in corporate pricing behavior [1] Group 2: Global Economic Environment - The global environment has fundamentally changed in the years following the pandemic, leading to a new era characterized by uncertainty and supply shocks [1] - Companies are adapting their pricing strategies more rapidly in response to these changes, contributing to inflation instability [1] - Lagarde emphasized that the future world is likely to be more uncertain, which may exacerbate inflation volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The G7 summit highlighted the internal divisions among member countries, exacerbated by the U.S. government's tariff policies, leading to increased global economic uncertainty [1][2][3] Group 1: G7 Summit Dynamics - The 51st G7 summit in Canada failed to produce a joint communiqué, reflecting deep-seated divisions and a lack of consensus among member states [1] - The summit was marked by a tense atmosphere due to the looming deadline for U.S. tariff policies, which overshadowed discussions on other global issues [2] - The U.S. maintained a hardline stance on its tariff policies, undermining collective efforts to address climate change and economic recovery [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The G7's economic representation has diminished, with increasing reliance on the U.S. and a lack of unified response to its unilateral trade actions [3] - The ongoing tariff risks could lead to a projected global economic contraction of $1 trillion by 2030 if current U.S. policies persist [3] - The internal conflicts within the G7 have intensified global economic uncertainty, countering expectations for a cohesive trade agreement [3]