全球经济不确定性

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许安鸿:黄金多头启动继续看涨,原油上升空间有限勿追多
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 00:36
周二(5月20日)因美联储官员对经济发表了更为谨慎的言论,同时交易员们期待着美国与日本即将举行的会谈,其中可能包括作为贸易协议一部分的汇率 讨论。美元指数继续走软,并跌至100大关附近,最终收跌0.34%,报100.02。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.491%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率 收报3.977%。受益于市场仍然存在一定程度的不确定性,现货黄金先跌后涨,在欧盘时段开启涨势,并于美盘加速上行,日内大涨近2%,逼近3300美元大 关,最终收涨1.84%,报3289.98美元/盎司。周三,因美媒报道称以色列或准备袭击伊朗的核设施,黄金一度升破3300美元大关。 尽管近期黄金价格自4月创下的每盎司3,500美元历史高位大幅回调,但中长期支撑因素依旧稳固。从中长期来看,黄金仍是"买入并持有"的优质资产,尤其 在当前全球不确定性加剧的背景下。尽管美联储推迟降息且美国经济衰退风险降低,但市场预期美联储将在9月开始降息,这将进一步提升黄金的吸引力。 黄金上周四下探3120关口后迅速反弹回升逾100美元,随后震荡调整,周二大幅上涨逼近3300美元关口,目前多头走势偏强,周三早间一度上破3300美元关 口,日线 ...
G7会议:美国关税大棒下 能展示多少“团结”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 07:29
Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers' meeting aims to maintain unity among Western nations in the face of global economic uncertainties, despite significant disagreements over U.S. trade policies [1][3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin plans to push for a return to fundamental principles, focusing on global economic imbalances and non-market behaviors, particularly criticizing China's export-led economic policies [3][4] - The meeting will address various topics, including support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, while also evaluating new EU sanctions proposals [4] Group 2 - There are ongoing discussions about the impact of U.S. tariffs on allied countries, with Canada striving to create a joint statement to lay the groundwork for the upcoming G7 leaders' summit [1][3] - The G7 members face challenges in reaching a consensus on climate policy, particularly due to differing views on green energy initiatives under the Trump administration [4] - The potential for further negotiations on U.S. tariff policies is highlighted, with Japan currently facing a tariff rate of 24% [3]
澳洲联储:维持低且稳定的通胀是首要之务,过去三个月全球经济不确定性增加,金融市场波动有段时间大幅加剧,委员会判断通胀面临的风险已较平衡。
news flash· 2025-05-20 04:36
Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia emphasizes that maintaining low and stable inflation is a top priority, noting increased global economic uncertainty and heightened financial market volatility over the past three months, leading to a balanced assessment of inflation risks [1] Group 1 - The global economic uncertainty has increased in the last three months [1] - Financial market volatility has significantly intensified during this period [1] - The committee assesses that the risks to inflation are now more balanced [1]
澳洲联储:过去三个月全球经济不确定性增加,金融市场波动有段时间大幅加剧。
news flash· 2025-05-20 04:35
Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicates that global economic uncertainty has increased over the past three months [1] - Financial market volatility has significantly intensified for a period of time [1]
澳洲联储可能对降息前景持开放态度
news flash· 2025-05-20 03:06
Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to adopt a dovish stance regarding interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point reduction anticipated in the upcoming policy meeting, marking the first cut since February [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The RBA is likely to indicate that inflation indicators have returned to target levels, but due to global economic uncertainties and a robust Australian job market, a series of rate cuts is unlikely [1] - The option of a 50 basis point cut does not seem to be under consideration in the current calm financial market environment [1] Economic Indicators - The RBA's decision will be influenced by the active employment market and steady wage growth amidst weak productivity [1]
中欧金融工作组第二次会议在比利时布鲁塞尔举行 围绕全球经济不确定性等议题进行深入交流
news flash· 2025-05-14 11:03
Group 1 - The second meeting of the China-Europe Financial Working Group was held in Brussels, Belgium, on May 13-14, focusing on global economic uncertainties and macroeconomic conditions [1] - Discussions included financial stability, banking and insurance regulation, and the development of pension funds and leasing companies [1] - Constructive discussions were held on emerging areas such as sustainable finance, cross-border data flow, and the construction of cross-border payment systems [1] Group 2 - A roundtable meeting for China-Europe financial institutions took place concurrently, where financial institutions provided professional advice on digital transformation and fintech innovation [1] - There was extensive communication regarding specific requests to optimize market access and promote business innovation [1] - All parties agreed to establish a regular communication mechanism to jointly promote deeper and broader financial cooperation between China and Europe [1]
英国雇主招聘计划持续低迷 全球经济不确定性加剧影响
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 06:09
IPD劳动力市场资深经济学家James Cockett表示:"雇主们的招聘计划直接反映了他们目前的信心水平较 低。" 新华财经北京5月12日电一项调查结果显示,在近期增税措施实施以及全球经济不确定性显著增加的背 景下,英国雇主对于未来三个月的招聘意向保持谨慎态度。这一趋势与英国央行对劳动力市场疲软状况 的预测相符,并进一步突显了当前经济环境给企业带来的挑战。 英国人力发展协会(CIPD)指出,最近一个季度对未来就业市场的预期指标从正13降至正8,触及除疫 情期间外的历史低位。特别是大型民营企业在本季度的表现尤为低迷,推动了整体指数的下滑。 与此同时,毕马威(KPMG)和英国招聘与就业联合会(REC)联合发布的另一项调查显示,尽管上个 月招聘单位的就业安排再次出现下降,但其降幅较3月份有所放缓。然而,总体人员需求萎缩的速度却 在加快。这两项调查结果共同印证了英国央行上周降息时所强调的劳动力市场降温现象,并显示出工资 增长强度可能成为通胀压力的一个潜在来源。 KPMG集团首席执行官Jon Holt评论道:"尽管REC报告中提到招聘活动略有回暖,但这并不意味着市场 将迎来转机。求职者人数持续上升的事实表明,企业目前 ...
Hyster-Yale(HY) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-07 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, lift truck revenues declined by 14% year over year, primarily due to lower sales volumes in The Americas and EMEA [18] - Adjusted operating profit for the lift truck segment declined significantly compared to the prior year, primarily due to lower volumes and loss of manufacturing absorption [19] - Q1 2025 income tax expense was $8 million, significantly below the prior year's $25 million due to lower pre-tax earnings [24] - Leverage, as measured by net debt to EBITDA, was 1.6 times at the end of Q1 [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In The Americas, the downturn was driven by reduced sales of higher value Class IV and V internal combustion engine trucks [18] - JPIC revenues increased year over year due to increased volumes and a favorable product mix shift toward big trucks [18] - Bolzoni's revenues declined primarily due to the planned phase-out of lower margin legacy products, but gross profit margins improved due to better pricing and lower material costs [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lift truck booking market showed encouraging signs of recovery in The Americas and particularly in EMEA, with bookings of $590 million reflecting year-over-year growth and a nearly 50% sequential increase [11][29] - The company's backlog remains solid at $1.9 billion, with production rates expected to increase in Q2 [12][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on producing and selling products in the same region to avoid excess shipping costs and enhance delivery time [7] - A strategic business realignment related to Nuvera aims to enhance near-term profitability and create an integrated energy solutions program [12] - The company is committed to driving profitable growth through innovation and operating efficiency, with a focus on modular product development and manufacturing optimization [9][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged significant uncertainty created by shifting tariff levels and their effects on market demand and cost structures [6] - The company remains cautiously optimistic about its 2025 outlook, despite anticipating that operating profit will be below 2024's exceptionally strong results [17][32] - Management emphasized the importance of financial discipline and proactive liquidity management in navigating current market challenges [25][36] Other Important Information - The company expects to incur $15 million to $18 million in severance and impairment costs during Q2 due to the business realignment [15] - The company anticipates cash flows from operations to be only moderately below 2024 levels, despite projected net income decline [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the key concerns regarding tariffs and restructuring? - Management highlighted that tariffs remain a significant concern and the restructuring of the Billerica facility around energy solutions is crucial in the current market environment [39]
欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯:利率路径取决于通胀。全球经济存在很多不确定性。
news flash· 2025-04-29 05:14
欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯:利率路径取决于通胀。全球经济存在很多不确定性。 ...
4月29日电,欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯表示,利率路径取决于通胀,全球经济存在很多不确定性。
news flash· 2025-04-29 05:14
智通财经4月29日电,欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯表示,利率路径取决于通胀,全球经济存在很多不确定 性。 ...