Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - U.S. Energy Secretary urged to double global oil production to meet rising demand and prevent energy poverty, highlighting significant challenges in global energy supply and access [1] - International oil prices fell in response to the call for increased production [2] - As of the latest close, WTI crude futures fell by 1.57% and Brent crude futures dropped by 1.23% [4] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - London gold spot price increased by 3.31%, reaching $4,935.75 per ounce, while London silver surged nearly 6% [5] - Domestic futures for gold and silver also saw significant gains [6] Group 3: Turkish Central Bank Policy - Turkish Central Bank announced a 100 basis point cut in the policy rate, reducing it from 38% to 37%, indicating a continued tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved [7] - Following the announcement, Turkey's main banking index dropped over 2% [8] Group 4: Oil Supply Concerns - The American Petroleum Institute reported a 3 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [9] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical factors and regional supply-demand imbalances are currently influencing the oil market [10][11]

Group 1 - The U.S. Energy Secretary, Granholm, called for a doubling of global oil production to meet rising demand and prevent energy poverty, highlighting significant challenges in global energy supply and access [3][20] - Following this announcement, international oil prices experienced a decline, with WTI crude futures down by 1.57% and Brent crude futures down by 1.23% [6][23] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a significant oversupply in the global oil market in the first quarter of 2026 unless major supply disruptions occur, with U.S. crude inventories increasing by 3 million barrels last week [12][29] Group 2 - Precious metals saw a rise, with London gold prices increasing by 3.31% to $4935.75 per ounce, and London silver prices rising nearly 6% [6][23] - The Turkish central bank announced a 100 basis point cut in its policy rate, reducing it from 38% to 37%, which led to a decline of over 2% in the main banking index [10][28] - Analysts noted that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to influence oil prices, with potential for increased volatility due to U.S. military presence and actions against Iran [30][31]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月22日 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存超预期累库，同时汽油库存增幅超预期，整体 油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍位于历史最高位附近。特朗普警告，如果印度不按 美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品征收的关税。印度在2025年12月对俄 原油进口已跌至三年低点，较6月峰值下降三分之一。近期国际货币基金组织将2026年世界经济增速 上调0.2个百分点，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解。不过，全球原油浮库高企，原 油仍是供应过剩格局，EIA和IEA最新的1月月报上调了2026年原油供应过剩幅度。特朗普称委内瑞拉 将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，雪佛龙正加大对于委内瑞拉原油的运输。目前委内瑞拉对于 全球原油供需影响不大。特朗普在白宫表示，收到了"来自伊朗非常积极的声明"，"我们要先观 望局势发展"，伊朗国内骚乱得到控制，不过目前美国并未排除采取军事行动的可能性，伊朗地缘 ...

国际能源署(IEA)在最新月度报告中上调2026年全球原油需求增长预期至93万桶/日，较此前预测的86万 桶/日显著提升。该机构指出，需求增长主要源于全球经济前景改善及油价回落刺激消费。IEA同时警 告，2026年全球原油供应过剩局面将持续，过剩量足以抵消地缘政治冲突引发的潜在供应中断风险。 石油股普遍走高，截至发稿，中海油服（601808）(02883)涨4.69%，报8.48港元；中石油(00857)涨 4.05%，报8.74港元；中海油(00883)涨3.25%，报22.9港元；中石化(00386)涨2.41%，报5.1港元。 消息面上，周三国际油价小幅走高。WTI 2月原油期货收于每桶60.62美元，涨幅为0.43%；布伦特3月原 油期货收于每桶65.24美元，涨幅为0.49%。信达期货认为，隔夜盘面出现油气联动，外盘天然气大涨驱 动终端柴油走强，原油盘面也受到了一定情绪支撑。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月21日 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存超预期累库，同时汽油库存增幅超预期，整体 油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍位于历史最高位附近。特朗普警告，如果印度不按 美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品征收的关税。印度在2025年12月对俄 原油进口已跌至三年低点，较6月峰值下降三分之一。近期国际货币基金组织将2026年世界经济增速 上调0.2个百分点，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解。不过，全球原油浮库高企，原 油仍是供应过剩格局，EIA最新的1月月报上调了2026年原油供应过剩幅度。特朗普称委内瑞拉将向 美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，雪佛龙正加大对于委内瑞拉原油的运输。目前委内瑞拉对于全球 原油供需影响不大。特朗普在白宫表示，收到了"来自伊朗非常积极的声明"，"我们要先观望局 势发展"，伊朗国内骚乱得到控制，不过目前美国并未排除采取军事行动的可能性，伊朗地缘风险 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a state of supply surplus, and the EIA's January monthly report has raised the forecast for the supply surplus in 2026. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate and consolidate, and the recent situation of the confrontation between Europe, America and Greenland also needs attention [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. During the off - season of crude oil demand, EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and gasoline inventories also increased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to rise. U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. Trump warned that if India does not limit its purchase of Russian oil as required by the U.S., the U.S. may further increase tariffs on Indian products. India's imports of Russian crude oil in December 2025 fell to a three - year low, down one - third from the peak in June. The crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the U.S. are low, and the market still worries about crude oil demand. Exports from the Middle East have increased, and global floating crude oil storage is high. Trump said Venezuela would transfer 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation also affect the market [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, fell 1.27% to 437.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 436.3 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 440.8 yuan/ton, and an open interest that decreased by 723 to 40,047 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. As of the week of January 9, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 29,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 745,000 barrels. OPEC's October crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.480 million barrels per day. OPEC+ November production increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared with October to 43.06 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 9 decreased by 58,000 barrels per day to 13.753 million barrels per day [3] Consumption Data - According to the latest data of the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.67% increase compared with the same period last year. Gasoline weekly production increased by 1.64% to 8.304 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.495 million barrels per day, the same as last year. Diesel weekly production increased by 28.20% to 4.096 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 3.707 million barrels per day, a 2.23% increase compared with the same period last year. The supply of U.S. crude oil products increased by 9.27% week - on - week [4]

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices are stabilizing due to dual factors of U.S. interest in Greenland and global supply surplus concerns [1][4][5] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices are holding steady at $64 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has fallen below $60 [5] - The International Energy Agency has warned of an impending supply surplus in the oil market this year [3][7] Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. President Donald Trump's pursuit of Greenland has caused market volatility, leading to a decline in the dollar and raising fears of a destructive trade war between the U.S. and Europe [5][7] - Mukesh Sahdev, CEO of XAnalysts, suggests that the market has not fully priced in the possibility of a comprehensive U.S.-Europe retaliation, but a compromise is likely [5] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The increase in production by OPEC members and allies has led to a decline in prices for certain Middle Eastern crude oil grades [3][7] - Despite an overall risk-averse market, a weaker dollar and strong crude futures spread provide some relative support for oil prices [3][7] - Local supply tightness persists in the spot market due to operational issues at the Black Sea region's Caspian Pipeline Consortium and production fluctuations at Kazakhstan's giant Tengiz oil field, resulting in a recent supply gap in the Mediterranean [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate and consolidate due to factors such as OPEC+ maintaining production plans, high US oil inventories, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and concerns about crude oil demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026 [1] - During the off - peak season of crude oil demand, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have accumulated more than expected, and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to rise [1][3] - US crude oil production has decreased slightly but remains near the historical high [1][3] - Trump warned that if India does not limit its purchases of Russian oil as required by the US, the US may further increase tariffs on Indian products. India's imports of Russian crude oil in December 2025 fell to a three - year low, down one - third from the peak in June [1] - The crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US are low. The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 decreased slightly and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months, leading the market to remain worried about crude oil demand [1] - Exports from the Middle East have increased, and global floating crude oil storage is high. The EIA's January monthly report has raised the surplus of crude oil supply in 2026 [1] - Trump said that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The US Energy Secretary claims that the US will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales [1] - There is unrest in Iran, and Trump has threatened to interfere. The US has not ruled out the possibility of military action, and the geopolitical risk in Iran remains unresolved [1] - The Russia - Ukraine negotiations have not made further progress, and Trump has passed a sanctions bill against Russia, authorizing the imposition of additional tariffs on countries importing Russian oil [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, 2603, fell 3.01% to 438.8 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 437.1 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 442.5 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 1964 to 41,539 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The IEA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - On the evening of January 14, EIA data showed that for the week ending January 9, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.702 million barrels), 1.88% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels (expected to increase by 3.565 million barrels); refined oil inventories decreased by 29,000 barrels (expected to increase by 512,000 barrels); and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 745,000 barrels [3] - On the supply side, the latest OPEC monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in October was reduced by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its production in November 2025 decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.480 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+'s crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week of January 9 decreased by 58,000 barrels per day to 13.753 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [3] 3.4 Consumption Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.67% increase compared to the same period last year, changing from being lower than the same period last year to being higher [4] - Gasoline weekly production increased by 1.64% week - on - week to 8.304 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.495 million barrels per day, the same as the same period last year [4] - Diesel weekly production increased by 28.20% week - on - week to 4.096 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 3.707 million barrels per day, a 2.23% increase compared to the same period last year. The rebound of gasoline and diesel drove the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase by 9.27% week - on - week [4]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices continued to decline as concerns over potential U.S. military action against Iran eased, leading to reduced worries about oil supply risks [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of 04:18 GMT, Brent crude oil prices fell by 21 cents, a decrease of 0.3%, to $63.55 per barrel; WTI prices dropped by 15 cents, also down 0.3%, to $59.04 per barrel [1][3]. - Earlier in the week, oil prices had surged to multi-month highs due to rising tensions following protests in Iran and signals from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding possible military action [1][3]. - Despite the recent price drop, Brent crude is still expected to achieve its fourth consecutive weekly increase [1][3]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts from BMI noted that while Brent crude prices have retraced some gains, they remain above levels from a week ago, with the recent price decline attributed to Trump's statement about delaying military action against Iran [1][4]. - Phillip Nova's senior market analyst, Priyanka Sachdeva, indicated that current market trends are driven by sentiment, with headlines having a transient impact on oil prices, especially when fundamental factors take a backseat [2][4]. - The oil market's fundamentals still point to ample supply, and unless there is a significant recovery in Chinese oil demand or notable bottlenecks in the physical oil market, international oil prices are likely to remain in a range-bound pattern, with Brent expected to fluctuate between $57 and $67 per barrel [2][4]. - OPEC has predicted that global oil supply and demand will balance by 2026, with demand growth in 2027 expected to be in line with this year's levels [2][4]. - Shell's recent report on energy security outlook for 2026 expresses optimism regarding energy demand and oil consumption growth, forecasting a 25% increase in global primary energy demand by 2050 compared to last year [2][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have dropped significantly. Geopolitical situation is the main short - term driver of oil prices, and the Iran situation has cooled rapidly. The US cancelled its planned military strike on Iran at the last minute. The market generally expects an oversupply of international crude oil. The IEA predicts a record - high increase in global crude oil inventories in Q1 2026, with a possible increase of 5 million barrels. Short - term oil prices will mainly fluctuate widely, and the current operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. - As of the week ending January 14, Singapore's residue fuel oil inventories increased by 65,000 barrels to a two - week high of 25,473,000 barrels. The supply of fuel oil in Asia in January is still sufficient, exceeding 5 million tons. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil spot differential has turned into a premium, showing a certain degree of recovery. The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a pattern of "loose supply and weak demand", and the operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical situation affects short - term oil prices. The Iran situation has cooled, but the Middle East situation may become more tense. The market expects an oversupply of crude oil, and the IEA predicts a record - high increase in global crude oil inventories in Q1 2026 [3]. - **Operation Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [3]. - **Futures Prices**: SC crude oil closed at 445.5 yuan/barrel, down 0.6 yuan or 0.13% from the previous value; WTI crude oil was at 61.02 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil was at 65.39 dollars/barrel, unchanged [3]. - **Spread Data**: SC - WTI spread was 2.51 yuan/barrel, down 0.03 yuan or 1.39%; SC - Brent spread was - 1.86 yuan/barrel, up 0.03 yuan or 1.88%; Brent - WTI spread was 4.37 dollars/barrel, unchanged [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Oman crude oil was at 62.49 dollars/barrel, up 0.61 dollars or 0.99%; Russian ESPO was at 50.58 dollars/barrel, up 0.05 dollars or 0.10%; Brent Dtd was at 68.76 dollars/barrel, up 2.97 dollars or 4.51% [4]. - **US EIA Data**: Crude oil commercial inventories increased by 3,391 thousand barrels to 422,447 thousand barrels, up 0.81%; gasoline inventories increased by 8,977 thousand barrels to 251,013 thousand barrels, up 3.71%; distillate inventories decreased by 29 thousand barrels to 129,244 thousand barrels, down 0.02%; US production decreased by 58 thousand barrels/day to 13,753 thousand barrels/day, down 0.42%; refined oil inventories increased by 1,482 thousand barrels to 47,722 thousand barrels, up 3.21% [4]. - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: SC crude oil warehouse receipts were 3,464,000, unchanged; FU fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4,900 to 74,550, down 6.17%; LU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 18,280, unchanged [4]. Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: Singapore's fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of fuel oil in Asia in January is sufficient. The low - sulfur fuel oil market shows a recovery, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has a pattern of "loose supply and weak demand" [3]. - **Operation Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [3]. - **Futures Prices**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,586 yuan/ton, unchanged; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,098 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.36% [3]. - **Spread Data**: FU - SC spread was - 47 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or - 1.26%; LU - SC spread was 31 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 3.51%; LU - FU spread was 512 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or - 2.15% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at 359 dollars/ton, up 13 dollars or 3.76%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at 435.5 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars or 1.63% [4]. - **Singapore ESG Data**: Fuel oil inventories increased by 850 thousand barrels to 25,559 thousand barrels, up 3.44% [4]. Macro and Other Data - **Exchange Rates and Interest Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.1842, down 0.1089 or 0.11%; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.18%, down 0.03 percentage points or 0.72%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate was 7.2545, unchanged [4]. - **Macro Indexes**: The Baltic BDI index was 1,566, down 42 or 2.61%; the crude oil freight rate BDTI index was 1,410, up 63 or 4.68%; the refined oil freight rate BCTI index was 777, up 68 or 8.75% [4].