原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/19 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | | | | | 2025/05/12 | 61.95 | 64.96 | 64.39 | - | 0.41 | -3.01 | 1.04 | 213.31 | 24.63 | 211.11 | 23.71 | | 2025/05/13 | 63.67 | 66.63 | 65.45 | -0.36 | 0.50 | -2.96 | 0.93 | 216.60 | 24.34 | 217.13 | 24.56 | | 2025/05/14 | 63.15 | 66.09 | 64.72 | ...

Group 1 - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi downplayed the prospects of breakthroughs in nuclear negotiations with the U.S., stating that no formal proposals have been received, leading to an increase in oil prices [1] - Brent crude oil rose over 1% to above $65, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to above $62, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical news [1][3] - The International Energy Agency reiterated that global production growth is expected to exceed demand growth this year and next, potentially leading to oversupply in the market [1] Group 2 - Westpac Banking Corp's Robert Rennie indicated that a potential agreement could increase Iranian exports by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day, which is not significant, maintaining a price range of $60 to $65 for Brent crude in the coming weeks [2] - Israeli attacks on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen have raised concerns about broader regional conflicts, contributing to rising oil prices [2] - Oil prices have increased for the second consecutive week due to easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, despite a decline of over 10% this year due to trade uncertainties and OPEC+ production increases [2]

市场担忧伊朗可能达成核协议，地缘政治缓和继续推动石油供应前景宽松。周四，国际油价短线走低，WTI原油和布油均跌超3%。 此前，及其盟友上个月开始恢复自2022年以来暂停的供应。根据周三发布的月度报告，该组织4月份仅增加了25000桶/日的产量，远低于此前计划 的138000桶/日。该联盟将在6月1日的会议上考虑进一步增产。 油价下跌也受到美国原油库存增加的影响。政府数据显示，美国原油库存增幅创下自3月以来之最，终结了此前连续四天的上涨行情。 伊朗核协议预期引发油价下跌 据参考消息援引路透社5月14日报道，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的顾问阿里·沙姆哈尼在美国全国广播公司14日发布的采访中表示，伊朗愿与美国达 成协议，以换取美国解除对伊经济制裁。 今年以来原油价格下跌超过13%。美国生产商表示，预计在年底前油价不会有太大变化。如果伊朗供应增加，可能会加剧今年晚些时候的潜在供 应过剩。 据，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的一位高级顾问14日向美媒透露，伊朗准备在一定条件下与美国总统特朗普签署核协议，以换取解除经济制裁。据媒 体报道，特朗普15日称，与伊朗达成协议的距离非常接近。 受此消息影响，布伦特原油价格跌破每桶65美元，此前一 ...

麦格理集团预计OPEC+将在7月份继续增产，以惩戒那些超配额生产的成员国，并积极回应美国总统特 朗普对降低油价的呼声。麦格理能源策略师Vikas Dwivedi表示，预计OPEC+在7月份将原油日产量再提 高10万-40万桶，此前该产油国联盟同意6月份增产41.1万桶，超出预期，加剧了市场对于年内原油供应 过剩的担忧。OPEC推动增产旨在惩罚如哈萨克斯坦和伊拉克等"配额违规者"。OPEC的增产也可能促使 美国页岩油产区放缓扩张步伐。（彭博） ...

Group 1: SoftBank Group Performance - SoftBank Group reported a net profit of 517.18 billion yen for Q4, driven by strong demand in the artificial intelligence sector [8] - For the full year 2024, SoftBank's net profit reached 1.15 trillion yen, a significant recovery from a loss of 227.65 billion yen in the previous year [8] - The strong quarterly profit was attributed to increased valuations of startups and sales from its chip subsidiary, bolstered by robust data center investment plans [8] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, reversing the previous month's decline [2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating a lower inflation rate than market expectations [2] - Analysts suggest that the data reflects ongoing inventory digestion by businesses and uncertainty in consumer economic expectations [3] Group 3: Automotive Market Trends - The average price of new cars in the U.S. reached $48,699 in April, marking a 2.5% month-on-month increase, the second-largest monthly rise in nearly a decade [4] - The increase in new car prices is linked to the effects of tariffs, with consumer panic buying driven by expectations of future price hikes [4] - Decreasing dealer inventories suggest that car prices may continue to rise in the coming months, posing challenges for both consumers and manufacturers [4] Group 4: Google Antitrust Issues - Google faces claims from dozens of comparison shopping websites in the EU, amounting to at least €12 billion, alleging that it misappropriated their customers [5] - These lawsuits stem from a 2017 EU ruling that fined Google €2.4 billion for abusing its market dominance, leading to ongoing legal challenges [5] - If the plaintiffs succeed, it could significantly impact Google's financial burden and provoke further legal actions from other companies [5][6] Group 5: Oil Market Outlook - Recent reports indicate that global oil demand has been weaker than expected, with inventories continuing to accumulate, raising concerns about a potential supply surplus by 2025-2026 [7] - Major investment firms have downgraded their oil price forecasts due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, despite some recovery in global economic activity [7] - The future trajectory of oil prices will depend on global economic conditions and OPEC+ production decisions [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates a weaker-than-expected global oil demand growth and a continuous accumulation of inventories, leading to expectations of a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [1][7] - As of May 6, 2025, the average global oil demand was 103.5 million barrels per day, showing a year-on-year increase of only 280,000 barrels per day, which is nearly half of the expected growth of 550,000 barrels per day [1] - The first week of May saw a decrease of 4 million barrels in visible OECD commercial crude and refined oil inventories, although gasoline and diesel inventories fell by 6 million barrels, offset by a 2 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories [1][2] Group 2 - In the first week of May, total liquid inventories globally increased by 8 million barrels, with seven out of the past eight weeks showing increases [2] - The increase in crude oil inventories was primarily driven by a significant rise of 26 million barrels in China's crude oil stocks [2] - The overall liquid inventory has increased by 62 million barrels year-to-date until the end of April, with crude oil inventories rising by 102 million barrels and refined oil inventories decreasing by 39 million barrels [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has lowered its price forecasts for Brent crude to an average of $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $56 per barrel for 2026, reflecting a significant downward adjustment from previous expectations [5][7] - The expectation of a supply surplus in the oil market is shared among major financial institutions, with Goldman Sachs predicting a surplus of 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [7] - The recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have led to a temporary suspension of tariffs, which may improve market sentiment, but concerns about supply surplus continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices [8]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/09 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/04/29 | 60.42 | 64.25 | 67.78 | - | 0.97 | -3.83 | 1.20 | 207.12 | 22.74 | 212.04 | 24.81 | | 2025/04/30 | 58.21 | 61.06 | 67.74 | - | 0.39 | -2.85 | 1.23 | 201.77 | 23.68 | 200.18 | 23.02 | | 2025/05/06 | 59.09 | 62.15 | 61.99 | -0. ...

OPEC+声明称，此次增产是基于当前"健康市场基础"的调整，但未来增产节奏可能根据市场状况变化 暂停或逆转。根据声明，沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼将 共同参与本轮增产。 在当前全球经济贸易环境复杂多变的背景下，增产决定令市场对原油供应过剩风险的担忧情绪增强，可 能引发国际原油市场潜在的价格战。 李彦指出，此前OPEC+的原定增产计划是从2025年4月开始，至2026年9月为止，增产总规模约220万桶/ 日，平均到每个月大约是12万桶/日的增产量，属于相对温和的增产力度。而目前5-7月大概率都将是 41.1万桶/日的增产力度，若后续月份均维持此增产幅度，则增产最快在今年9月即可完成，较OPEC+的 原定增产计划提前整整一年。 OPEC+除增产计划外，部分产油国的补偿性减产也在推进，补偿性减产从2025年3月开始，至2026年6 月为止，分月来看，补偿性减产力度在18.9万桶/日至43.5万桶/日，但市场担忧这一举措成为一纸空 文，也可能是目前OPEC+增产加速的一个原因。 "五一"假期期间，国际油价持续下跌。截至当地时间5月5日收盘，纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油 期货价 ...

供过于求担忧加剧，市场前景扑朔迷离 沙特阿拉伯主导的 OPEC+ 联盟周六决定大幅增产。这一决定令市场措手不及，原油期货价格应声下跌。 周一，美国原油期货价格大跌4.27%，至每桶56.30美元。全球基准布伦特原油下跌2.39美元至每桶59.09美元。今年以来，油价已累计下跌超过 20%。 OPEC+ 突然宣布大幅增产，导致原油期货价格应声下跌，华尔街各大投行纷纷下调油价预测。 高盛集团将今年和明年的布伦特原油价格预期分别下调了2至3美元/桶。摩根士丹利的调整幅度更大，将今年的季度价格预期下调了5美元。 ING Groep 也下调了其油价展望。 大摩预计，原油供应过剩的局面将会恶化，今年下半年，原油日供应过剩量将达到110万桶。 这意味着，2025年原油市场将面临供应过剩的风 险。 就在一个月前，OPEC+已经宣布5月增产相同数量，连续两个月的增产计划让市场承压。增产的直接原因是主要成员国的不遵守协议行为，特别 是伊拉克和哈萨克斯坦。多位OPEC+代表透露，除非各国同意减产协议，否则沙特考虑以类似的速度逐步取消其此前承诺的220万桶/日自愿减产 措施。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑 ...

WTI 6月原油期货位于56.47美元/桶附近。 【 导读】最新环球资讯来了 特朗普：计划对所有海外制作的电影征收100%的关税 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，授权商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有在国外制作的进入美国的电影征收100%的关税。 国际原油期货重挫！ 5月5日，布伦特原油期货一度大跌4.6%，逼近每桶58美元；WTI原油期货跌5%，跌破56美元。截至发稿，布伦特6月原油期货位于59.49美元附近。 消息面上，OPEC+在上周六的会议上决定自6月起增产41.1万桶/日，加剧了市场对于原油供应过剩的担忧。 以色列：胡塞武装的袭击源自伊朗 将对双方进行报复 根据央视新闻，以色列总理办公室当地时间5月4日晚发表声明说，针对也门胡塞武装当天早些时候对特拉维夫的本-古里安国际机场发动导弹袭击，以色 列将对该组织及其盟友伊朗进行报复。 声明还称，也门胡塞武装的袭击"源自伊朗"，以色列将选择时间和地点对胡塞武装背后势力伊朗采取行动。 伊朗方面对此暂无回应。 当天早些时候，以总理内塔尼亚胡发布视频讲话向胡塞武装发出警告，称以色列"过去曾经打击过他们，未来也将继续打击"。以色列目前正在就此与美国 方面展开协 ...