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{比特币难以复制之谜:代码易得,信仰难铸,社区与人成关键
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-06 02:15
Core Insights - Bitcoin holds a unique position in the cryptocurrency world, having evolved from an anonymous developer's experiment to the most recognized digital asset globally, unlike many altcoins that have failed to replicate its success [1][4] Group 1: Bitcoin's Unique Attributes - The success of Bitcoin lies in its non-replicability, as highlighted by the author of "The Bitcoin Standard," emphasizing that while its code is open-source, the lack of genuine community demand hampers the survival of imitation coins [3][6] - Bitcoin's decentralized community contrasts sharply with the corporate structures of most altcoins, which often prioritize quick profits over long-term development, leading to significant information asymmetry and moral hazard [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics of Altcoins - Despite the risks, many investors are drawn to altcoins due to the mythos surrounding Bitcoin, often overlooking that Bitcoin's success is rooted in its underlying ideology rather than just technology [4][6] - Historical data shows a grim survival rate for altcoins, with many from the top 20 market cap lists in 2013, 2017, and 2021 experiencing significant devaluation by 2022, indicating their inability to match Bitcoin's fairness, stability, and longevity [4][6] Group 3: Evolution of Altcoin Strategies - Initially, many altcoins attempted to compete by claiming to be "faster" or "cheaper" alternatives to Bitcoin, but these strategies have lost traction, leading to a shift towards proof-of-stake (PoS) and other mechanisms that emphasize unique functionalities [6][7] - Bitcoin's dominance, holding 97% of the market value through its proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, has created a significant barrier for other cryptocurrencies to cultivate a similar following [6][7] Group 4: Cultural and Ideological Significance - Bitcoin's mission as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system and a store of value is supported by its fixed supply of 21 million and 10-minute block time, reinforcing its core principles of decentralization and anti-inflation [6][7] - The historical context of Bitcoin's creation during a financial crisis imbues it with a rebellious spirit against the old order, symbolizing a belief in a currency independent of state control, which has been perpetuated by its decentralized community [6][7] Group 5: Power Dynamics in the Cryptocurrency Space - The power dynamics within the cryptocurrency sector are complex, with many project failures attributed to the structure of founding teams and economic incentives, highlighting the risks of information asymmetry [7] - Bitcoin's non-replicability is ultimately rooted in the collective belief and ideology of its community, making it a movement rather than just a technological innovation, which is difficult for later entrants to replicate [7]
比特币难以撼动之谜:技术易仿,信仰难铸,社区与精神成核心壁垒
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-05 20:16
Core Insights - Bitcoin has maintained an unshakeable position in the cryptocurrency market since its inception, despite the existence of numerous altcoins attempting to replicate its success [1] - The unique power dynamics and ideological competition within the cryptocurrency market contribute to the challenges faced by these altcoins [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The barrier to creating new cryptocurrencies appears low, yet market acceptance of these replicas is highly stringent [3] - Altcoins often rely on aggressive marketing or price surges to attract investors, leading to a speculative environment [3] - Most altcoins operate under a corporate model, where founding teams control token distribution and project exit strategies, often prioritizing quick profits [3] Group 2: Bitcoin's Unique Position - Bitcoin's success is rooted not in technical parameters but in the strong belief of its decentralized community, which has been reinforced over a decade [4] - The market data reveals the fragility of altcoins, with many top altcoins from 2013 and 2017 experiencing significant devaluation compared to Bitcoin [4] - Bitcoin's market capitalization in the proof-of-work sector exceeds 97%, showcasing its stability and community resilience compared to later entrants [4] Group 3: Evolution of Altcoins - Early altcoins attempted to compete with Bitcoin by offering faster transactions and lower fees, but this strategy has lost effectiveness as Bitcoin's ideological position solidified [6] - Surviving altcoins are now shifting towards proof-of-stake and smart contract mechanisms, emphasizing governance and voting rights, yet they still lack Bitcoin's foundational rebellious spirit [6] - The power dynamics in the cryptocurrency space are complex, with internal project control often stemming from early holders' evasion of regulation [6] Group 4: Bitcoin as a Social Movement - Bitcoin's revolutionary nature relies on the trust of its holders, transcending mere technology to become a social movement and a vehicle for values [6] - The historical path dependency of Bitcoin makes it fundamentally unshakeable, as its development is fully transparent and community-driven [6]
美国商务部授权波场TRON发布美GDP数据, 手续费下调 60% 推动用户规模激
Cai Fu Zai Xian· 2025-09-05 06:51
Group 1 - TRON blockchain network has been officially recognized by the U.S. Department of Commerce as a primary platform for releasing official economic data, starting with the GDP data for Q2 2025 [1][3] - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a GDP annual growth rate of 3.3% for Q2 2025, with the data's tamper-proof hash recorded on the TRON blockchain [1][3] - This marks the first instance of a federal agency publishing official GDP data on a public blockchain, highlighting the advantages of decentralized technology in ensuring data transparency and global sharing of key economic indicators [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has acknowledged the scale, efficiency, and global reach of the TRON network by recording the SHA256 hash of its official GDP report [3] - TRON's daily settlement amount has surpassed $22 billion, with over 8.8 million transactions, establishing it as a trusted infrastructure layer in financial markets and a reliable platform for government data publication [3] - TRON's founder emphasized that the on-chain GDP data reinforces TRON's role as public infrastructure and demonstrates the potential of blockchain technology to enhance transparency and trust [3] Group 3 - In August 2025, the TRON community approved a proposal to reduce network energy fees by 60%, significantly lowering transaction costs and rapidly increasing network adoption [4] - Following the fee reduction, TRON's daily active user count exceeded 2.5 million, surpassing both BNB Chain and Solana in on-chain activity [4] - TRON leads the stablecoin sector with a circulation volume exceeding $82 billion, focusing on providing low-cost, high-efficiency on-chain services to create long-term value for global users [4]
关于比特币,你可能不知道的(三)
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-05 06:26
Group 1 - The core argument is that Bitcoin's success is difficult to understand due to its lack of intrinsic value in the Graham sense, leading to a wave of imitation cryptocurrencies that seek to capitalize on perceived arbitrage opportunities [2][12] - Imitating Bitcoin is easy, but creating genuine demand for these imitations is challenging, requiring either extensive marketing or sudden price surges [3][4] - Most cryptocurrencies operate in a corporate manner, with founding teams primarily motivated by profit, which contrasts with Bitcoin's decentralized community-driven ethos [7][14] Group 2 - Bitcoin has absorbed 97% of the market value in the proof-of-work (PoW) sector, leaving little room for altcoins, which must now pivot to new mechanisms like proof-of-stake (PoS) to survive [24] - The fundamental differences between Bitcoin and its imitators include Bitcoin's simple mission as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system, its historical context of rebellion against the old financial order, and its highly decentralized community structure [26][27] Group 3 - The cryptocurrency space is fundamentally driven by power dynamics rather than technology, with internal team structures and economic incentives often leading to risks and failures [28][29] - The historical context of Bitcoin's creation and its community's evolution are crucial for understanding its unique position in the market, as it embodies a blend of technological innovation and ideological significance [31][32][33]
ETH最新价格行情分析,分析师预计突破4530美元,XBIT平台价值赋能
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 12:46
BOSS Wallet 9月2日讯,当前加密货币市场焦点集中于以太坊(ETH)价格走势。经历8月底的短期调 整后,ETH展现出较强修复能力,截至发稿,交易价格稳定在4386美元,维持6月以来形成的上升通道 运行。这一技术形态引发市场对ETH能否在9月突破5000美元的广泛讨论。在此背景下,XBIT去中心化 交易所平台凭借技术架构与风险管控体系,成为投资者构建安全交易体系的重要选项。 图片来源:BOSS Wallet ETH价格走势:技术面与资金面的多空对峙 BOSS Wallet报道,从技术分析角度,ETH日线级别呈现明确的结构化特征。自6月形成的上升通道持续 为价格提供支撑,近期从4200美元通道下沿反弹,验证了市场对中期上涨趋势的共识。尽管短期涨幅较 7月有所收窄,但关键技术指标释放中性偏积极信号:相对强弱指标(RSI)在超买修正后回归均衡区 间,移动平均收敛散度指标(MACD)保持在零轴上方,显示多头动能尚未完全衰退。部分分析师指 出,当前走势与2017年重要突破前的形态存在相似性,若有效站稳4530美元阻力位,价格有望向4800美 元乃至5000美元目标推进。 链上数据与市场情绪方面,资金流动呈现显著 ...
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-9-2)-20250902
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 02:05
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - CSI 300: Volatile [3] - SSE 50: Upward [3] - CSI 500: Volatile [3] - CSI 1000: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [3] - Gold: Volatile and strong [3] - Silver: Volatile and strong [3] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The iron ore market is expected to follow the finished products in high-level volatile adjustments due to limited fundamental contradictions in the short term [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is likely to be volatile and weak as the fundamentals continue to deteriorate [2]. - The rebar market remains in a weak fundamental pattern, with supply remaining relatively high and demand difficult to show counter-seasonal performance [2]. - The glass market has seen a significant cooling of market sentiment, and the short-term supply-demand pattern has not improved significantly [2]. - The stock index market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and increase long positions in stock indices [3]. - The Treasury bond market has shown a weakening trend, and long positions in Treasury bonds should be held lightly [3]. - The gold market is expected to be volatile and strong, with the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy being potential short-term disturbance factors [3]. - The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to consolidate [6]. - The log market is expected to be range-bound, with limited supply pressure and uncertain peak season demand [6]. - The oil and fat market is likely to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean production area and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - The meal market is expected to rebound with the support of the external market, and attention should be paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [6]. - The live pig market is expected to see a slight increase in prices next week, with support from school start-up demand and cost factors [7]. - The rubber market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by supply shortages and inventory declines [10]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are in a state of wait-and-see or volatile, with prices mainly following cost fluctuations [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is affected by the steel industry's stable growth policy, with raw material sentiment boosted and prices relatively strong. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it is expected to follow the finished products in high-level volatile adjustments [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are deteriorating, with increasing supply and decreasing demand. The short-term black market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. - **Rebar**: The rebar market is in a weak fundamental pattern, with supply remaining high and demand difficult to improve. The traditional peak season has arrived, but the spot demand is still weak, and the short-term contract is expected to continue to be weak [2]. Non-ferrous and Financial Series - **Stock Indices**: The stock index market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and increase long positions in stock indices. The market is affected by factors such as the SCO summit and the implementation of the consumer loan subsidy policy [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The Treasury bond market has shown a weakening trend, with market interest rate fluctuations. Long positions in Treasury bonds should be held lightly [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The gold and silver markets are expected to be volatile and strong, with the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy being potential short-term disturbance factors. The market is also affected by factors such as the weakening of the US labor market and the slowdown of inflation [3]. Forestry and Agricultural Products Series - **Pulp**: The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support weakening and demand improvement uncertain. Prices are expected to consolidate [6]. - **Logs**: The log market is expected to be range-bound, with limited supply pressure and uncertain peak season demand. The spot market price is relatively stable, and the cost support remains [6]. - **Oil and Fats**: The oil and fat market is likely to be volatile in the short term, with overall raw material supply being relatively loose and demand being affected by policies and consumption upgrades. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean production area and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meals**: The meal market is expected to rebound with the support of the external market, but the increase is limited by the expected increase in production. Attention should be paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig market is expected to see a slight increase in prices next week, with support from school start-up demand and cost factors. The market is also affected by factors such as the supply and demand structure and inventory levels [7]. Chemical and Soft Commodities Series - **Rubber**: The rubber market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by supply shortages and inventory declines. The market is also affected by factors such as the impact of the approaching military parade on downstream operations and the overall strength of the commodity market [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are in a state of wait-and-see or volatile, with prices mainly following cost fluctuations. The markets are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply and demand relationships, and cost changes [10].
Aethir携手亚利桑那州立大学推出全球AI与区块链教育计划
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 09:56
Aethir 的去中心化 GPU 云已与亚利桑那州立大学(ASU)合作,推出具有里程碑意义的全球 AI 与区块链教育计划。这是 Aethir 作为去中心化云计算领导 者,首次与美国顶尖公立大学展开深入合作,旨在推动教育领域的 AI 和区块链创新。该计划将首先在 ASU 的"Endless Games and Learning Lab(无限游戏与 学习实验室)"启动,重点探索 AI 在基于游戏的学习环境中的可扩展和实际应用。这一计划与 Aethir 拥有的超过 150 个合作伙伴和客户生态系统高度契 合,借助去中心化 GPU 云网络推动 AI 和游戏创新的规模化发展。 亚利桑那州立大学(ASU)一直在创新、可持续发展和全球影响力方面位居美国第一,旗下的"Endless Games and Learning Lab"是一项开创性计划,通过 AI 驱动的游戏和沉浸式学习体验推动教育创新。ASU 是首个与 OpenAI 建立合作关系的大学,利用最先进的技术和分布式计算基础设施开发个性化、可扩展的 学习解决方案。"Endless Games and Learning Lab"将游戏、科研与多方合作相结合,为学生提供全球 ...
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-8-27)-20250827
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:24
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating upward [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: Oscillating upward [4] - Silver: Oscillating upward [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating downward [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating downward [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating downward [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillating downward [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating downward [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: On the sidelines [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Reverse spread [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The iron ore market has limited fundamental contradictions and is expected to oscillate, supported by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and high steel mill profitability [2] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate upward, with supply-side factors providing support and a potential for further upside if supply continues to decline [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil markets face supply-demand imbalances, with limited supply contraction expected during the military parade and weakening demand, leading to price oscillations [2] - The glass market has a weak short-term supply-demand situation, with inventory accumulation and limited demand recovery due to the real estate downturn [2] - Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate, with the market focusing on the support of the 60-day moving average and the improvement of real demand [2] - Stock index futures and options show different trends, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 expected to rise due to government policies promoting AI development and service trade liberalization [2][4] - Treasury bond prices are expected to oscillate, with the market influenced by interest rate fluctuations and central bank operations [4] - Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate upward, driven by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations [4] - Pulp prices are expected to consolidate, with a weak supply-demand situation and limited cost support [6] - Log prices are expected to range-bound, with stable demand and limited supply pressure [6] - Edible oil prices are expected to oscillate, influenced by factors such as export demand, inventory levels, and weather conditions [6] - Meal prices are expected to oscillate downward, with abundant supply and uncertain demand [6] - Live pig prices are expected to oscillate downward, with increasing supply and weakening demand [8] - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate, with a narrowing supply-demand gap and potential for price increases due to supply-side factors [11] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets show different trends, with factors such as supply-demand balance, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations influencing prices [11] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Fundamental contradictions are not prominent, with limited impact on demand from potential高炉限产. Global shipments have declined slightly, but there is no significant inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to oscillate [2] - Coking coal and coke: Affected by coal mine accidents and production restrictions, prices have risen and then adjusted. Supply-side factors support prices, and short-term adjustments are limited. Buying on dips is recommended after the market sentiment stabilizes [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Tangshan's steel mill production restrictions are less than expected, and demand is weak. Supply is expected to contract during the military parade, but the impact is limited. Prices are expected to oscillate [2] Financial Sector - Stock index futures and options: Different indices show different trends, influenced by government policies promoting AI development and service trade liberalization. Long positions are recommended [2][4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates are fluctuating, and central bank operations have an impact on prices. Long positions should be held with a light position [4] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Prices are influenced by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations. The current upward trend is expected to continue, with short-term fluctuations possible [4] Light Industry - Pulp: Supply and demand are both weak, and cost support is limited. Prices are expected to consolidate [6] - Logs: Demand is stable, and supply pressure is limited. Prices are expected to range-bound [6] Oil and Fat Sector - Edible oils: Demand is influenced by export sales and policies, and inventory levels vary. Prices are expected to oscillate, with attention paid to weather conditions and production and sales data [6] - Meals: Supply is abundant, and demand is uncertain. Prices are expected to oscillate downward [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate downward [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply and demand are gradually balancing, and prices are expected to oscillate. Supply-side factors may drive prices higher in the short term [11] Polyester Sector - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: Supply-demand balance, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations influence prices. Different products show different trends [11]
“亡命之徒”孙宇晨,路为何越走越宽?
首席商业评论· 2025-08-26 04:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise and strategies of Sun Yuchen, the founder of TRON, highlighting his controversial methods in the cryptocurrency space and his recent activities, including the successful reverse merger of TRON with SRM Entertainment, which has transformed it into a significant player in the crypto market [3][10][12]. Group 1: Sun Yuchen's Strategies and Activities - Sun Yuchen's public persona is built on creating buzz through high-profile events, such as his space flight and art purchases, which serve to enhance his brand and the TRON cryptocurrency [6][8]. - The reverse merger of TRON with SRM Entertainment allowed TRON to capitalize its native token TRX on a traditional financial platform, marking a significant move in the crypto industry [10][12]. - Sun Yuchen's approach to acquiring SRM was effectively "cost-free" as it utilized TRX tokens, showcasing a unique method of leveraging cryptocurrency for corporate acquisitions [10][12]. Group 2: Financial Position and Controversies - Sun Yuchen's estimated net worth is around $12.3 billion, including significant holdings in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether, although these figures are subject to scrutiny due to the volatile nature of cryptocurrency [14][17]. - The article highlights Sun Yuchen's legal battles, including a lawsuit against Bloomberg to prevent the release of sensitive financial information, indicating the risks associated with his high-profile status in the crypto world [16][19]. - The article also discusses the potential threats to TRON's decentralized goals due to Sun Yuchen's concentrated holdings and the scrutiny from regulatory bodies like the SEC [17][19][36]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - TRON's market capitalization is projected to reach $32.1 billion by 2025, positioning it among the top ten cryptocurrencies, driven by a growing user base and transaction volume [35]. - Despite its advantages in transaction speed and cost, TRON faces intense competition from other blockchain platforms like Ethereum and Solana, which may challenge its market position [36]. - The article concludes with a cautionary note about the inherent risks in the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that while Sun Yuchen has been successful in creating value, the sustainability of his ventures remains uncertain [36].
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-8-26)-20250826
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:40
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating strongly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [4] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range - bound [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, but Powell's signal of interest rate cuts has supported commodities. The market is affected by various factors such as policy, supply and demand, and market sentiment, and different varieties show different trends [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The short - term manufacturing recovery was interrupted, and the Politburo meeting was disappointing, but Powell's signal of interest rate cuts supported commodities. The expectation of domestic blast furnace production restrictions was falsified, and the impact on iron ore demand was small. The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume also rebounded, but there was no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Terminal demand was weak, and steel mills had little motivation to cut production actively. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the coal mine accident in Fujian and the initial success of anti - involution, the night trading of coking coal and coke rose sharply. The overall recovery of coal mines was slow, and the inventory of clean coal in coal mines reached the lowest level since March 2024. Downstream enterprises maintained high - level operations, and coal prices were supported in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The production restriction policy of Tangshan steel mills was clear, but the production reduction was less than expected. Building material demand declined, and total demand was difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. The supply was expected to shrink during the military parade, but the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market intensified. The spot demand for rebar was weak, and the futures price was expected to adjust downward to find support [2]. - **Glass**: The market sentiment cooled, and the downstream was in the stage of digesting inventory. The supply and demand pattern did not improve significantly. There was no change in the production line, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The possibility of glass factory shutdown during the military parade was low. The downstream inventory was low, but the rigid demand had not recovered. In the long term, glass demand was difficult to rise significantly [2]. - **Soda ash**: The short - term spot was weak, and the futures price followed the macro - driven rise. The improvement of real demand needs to be concerned [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 2.08%, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 2.09%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.89%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.56%. Funds flowed into the precious metals and power generation equipment sectors and out of the daily chemical and water service sectors. The market sentiment was bullish, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond declined, and the central bank carried out reverse repurchase and MLF operations. The market interest rate fluctuated, and the trend of Treasury bonds was weak. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real - interest - rate - centered to the central - bank - gold - purchase - centered. The currency, financial, and risk - aversion attributes of gold are affected by various factors such as the US debt problem, interest rate policy, and geopolitical risks. The short - term interest - rate cut expectation supported the price of gold, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. The PCE data on Friday needs to be concerned [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price was stable, and the cost support for pulp prices weakened. The profitability of the paper industry was low, and the demand was in the off - season. The pulp market presented a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to consolidate [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs at the port increased, and the supply pressure was not large. The inventory decreased, and the spot market price was stable. The cost support was enhanced. The fundamentals had few contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils and fats**: Affected by strong export sales and the decision of the US EPA on biofuel exemptions, the demand for soybean oil was promising. The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the inventory was lower than expected, and the export demand was strong. The domestic import of soybeans remained high, and the inventory situation of different oils was different. The demand for double - festival stocking recovered, and it is expected to oscillate bullishly [6]. - **Meal products**: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area of soybeans, and the inventory of US soybeans decreased. The weather in the US soybean - producing area was favorable for growth, but the weather in the next month was still crucial. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed increased the cost, and the supply was worried. The domestic soybean arrival volume was high, and the soybean meal inventory was abundant. It is expected to oscillate [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs continued to decline. The supply increased, and the demand was restricted by high - temperature weather. The price of live pigs was expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The impact of weather on the main rubber - producing areas weakened, but the geopolitical conflict still had a small impact. The raw material supply was tight, and the purchase price was high. The utilization rate of tire enterprises' production capacity showed different trends, and the inventory at Qingdao Port decreased. The supply - demand gap narrowed, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. - **PX**: Geopolitical instability made the oil price direction unclear. The PTA load weakened, and the polyester load rebounded. The short - term supply and demand of PX were slightly weaker but still tight, and the price was strong [9]. - **PTA**: The oil price fluctuated greatly, and the cost support was general. The supply decreased, and the demand improved. The price followed the cost fluctuation [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory decreased, and the subsequent arrival volume was lower than expected. The terminal demand improved slightly, and the supply pressure increased. The medium - term supply and demand were expected to be in a wide - balance state. The low inventory supported the price [9]. - **PR**: The supply - demand expectation of polyester bottle chips was weak, but the oil price was strong, and the cost supported the price to oscillate [9]. - **PF**: The supply - demand side of polyester staple fiber lacked positive factors, but the overnight oil price increase and the strong raw material side were expected to continue, and the price was expected to sort out warmly [9].