Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Volatile [3] - CSI 300 Index: Rebounding [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebounding [3] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Consolidating [3] - Gold: High - level Volatility [5] - Silver: High - level Volatility [5] - Logs: Volatile [5] - Pulp: Volatile [6] - Offset Paper: Stable and Volatile [6] - Soybean Oil: Volatile [6] - Palm Oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean Meal: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Soybean No.2: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Soybean No.1: Volatile [6] - Live Pigs: Weakening [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wide - range Volatility [10] - PTA: Wide - range Volatility [10] - MEG: Low - level Volatility [10] - PR: On - hold [10] - PF: On - hold [10] Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of the black industry have no prominent contradictions, with multiple long and short factors in supply and demand competing, and prices are expected to move within a range. Uncertainties in the coal - coke market in January are high, and attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal and the downstream stocking rhythm. The steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the possible introduction of crude steel production control policies. The glass market needs to verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and whether the demand can be maintained [2]. - The stock index futures and options market has a positive start in the new year, and the recent market is expected to maintain an upward trend. The bond market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend [3]. - The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not reversed, and the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors. The Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide strong medium - and long - term support for gold prices. The log market has stable supply, weak demand, and falling costs, and prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The pulp market has a pattern of loose supply and demand, and prices may maintain a volatile trend. The double - offset paper market has weak fundamental driving forces, and prices are expected to be stable and volatile in the short term. The oil and fat market is short - term volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil. The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak, and attention should be paid to South American weather, auction policies, soybean arrival rhythms, and Spring Festival logistics efficiency [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs may decline, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly after the holiday. The rubber market has characteristics of marginal supply relief, consumption entering the traditional off - season, and high inventory, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The PX and PTA markets are wide - range volatile, and the MEG market is low - level volatile. The PR market is expected to adjust strongly and volatile, and the PF market is expected to be strongly volatile [10]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: During the New Year's Day holiday, Singapore iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly. In the first quarter, the main production areas in Australia and Brazil enter the seasonal weather - sensitive period, which may lead to a phased contraction in shipments. Steel demand is in the traditional off - season, and the current hot - metal output is close to the phased bottom. Steel mills' imported ore inventories are at a new low in the same period in recent years, and the rigid demand for winter storage replenishment is gradually increasing, providing short - term support for steel prices. However, domestic port inventories are continuously at a high level, and the upward range of iron ore prices is under pressure [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before and after New Year's Day, the spot price of the coke market declined under pressure, and the fourth round of price cuts was implemented. The average profit of coking plants further declined. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are loose, and the overall operating load of coking plants is stable. Some steel - mill coking plants have inventory accumulation and mainly focus on active shipments. After the fourth round of price cuts, the procurement enthusiasm of some steel mills has increased, and the output of five major steel products has increased. There is an expectation of hot - metal复产 in January, and the fundamentals of coke are expected to improve. However, under the dual suppression of the consumption off - season and environmental protection restrictions, steel mills' procurement is expected to be cautious. In January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase, and the support for the cost side of coke is insufficient [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: During the New Year's Day holiday, market activity decreased. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.36 tons to 815.18 tons. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.41 tons to 841.02 tons, and rebar was the only variety with a decline in apparent demand. The inventory of five major steel products continued to decline by 25.84 tons to 1232.15 tons, reaching the lowest level since the Spring Festival in 2025. Traders' willingness to take goods is weak, and they may continue low - inventory operations. Attention should be paid to the possible introduction of crude steel production control policies, and the current steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2]. - **Glass**: During the holiday, the sentiment in the spot market remained weak, the spot price decreased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate. There is a possibility of further price cuts in the future. At the end of the year, there will be cold - repair implementation. The market needs to verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and whether the demand can be maintained. The demand for float - glass is continuously weak, and the real - estate completion decline drags down the demand outlook. The overall glass demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [2][3]. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: In the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.90%, the SSE 50 index rose by 2.26%, the CSI 500 index rose by 2.49%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 2.09%. The insurance and healthcare sectors had net capital inflows, while the oil and gas and shipping sectors had net capital outflows. The market had a positive start in the new year, and the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 4000 points. The recent market is expected to maintain an upward trend, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield to maturity of the 10 - year China bond rose by 2bps, FR007 rose by 4bps, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 5, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 4823 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan. The central bank's liquidity injection in December 2025 showed net injections through various channels. The spot bond interest rate of treasury bonds rebounded slightly, and the market trend was in a narrow - range consolidation [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: In the context of a high - interest - rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central - bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has led to cracks in the monetary credit of the US dollar, and the de - fiat - currency attribute of gold is prominent in the process of de - dollarization. In the global high - interest - rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero - coupon bond for bonds is weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US bonds is reduced. Geopolitical risks persist, and market risk - aversion demand remains, which is an important factor driving up the gold price. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months since November last year. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not reversed, and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors [5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is in a high - level volatile state. Short - term factors such as the US raid on Venezuela have increased geopolitical risks and risk - aversion sentiment, and the unexpected decline in the latest US PMI has strengthened the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cuts. The market currently expects two interest - rate cuts next year [5]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Last week, the daily average shipment volume of logs at ports was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 4900 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The national daily average outbound volume decreased to less than 60,000 cubic meters due to the impact of Shandong. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in November was 1.452 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3% compared with the previous month. In November, China's coniferous log imports were 2.2295 million cubic meters, an increase of 16.86% compared with the previous month and 2.58% compared with the same period last year. The expected arrival volume last week was 510,000 cubic meters, a increase of 66.8% compared with the previous week. As of last week, the log port inventory was 2.54 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The spot market price was relatively stable. The delivery participation willingness in the industry was low in November, and there are currently 200 registered warrants. The supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost decline is a drag, so the log price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price was relatively stable in the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was adjusted by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of some broad - leaf pulp in Guangdong increased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of coniferous pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 700 US dollars/ton, and the latest FOB price of broad - leaf pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 570 US dollars/ton, strengthening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is at a low level, paper mills have high inventory pressure, and their acceptance of high - price pulp is not high. The demand is not good, and currently, paper mills purchase raw materials on a just - in - time basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The fundamentals show a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price may maintain a volatile trend [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot market price was stable in the previous trading day. The supply side is relatively stable this week, and there is still supply pressure. The publication orders are being picked up, which supports the market on the demand side, but the social - order demand is weak. The fundamental driving force is not strong, and the price is expected to be stable and volatile in the short term. There is a possibility of significant price fluctuations due to liquidity issues [6]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the export volume in December decreased by 5.2% - 5.8% compared with the previous month. The key variable that can boost the oil price, the biodiesel policy, is still full of uncertainties. The EPA will not finally determine the 2026 biofuel blending policy until the first quarter, and the Indonesian B50 plan is difficult to implement at least in the first half of the year. The export of US soybeans is weak, and the demand prospect is uncertain. A large amount of soybeans are continuously arriving in China, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, the oil inventory has declined but the supply is still abundant, the post - holiday consumption boost is limited, the catering consumption recovery is weak, and the terminal procurement willingness is average. The oil market is short - term volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meals**: The global soybean ending inventory is 122.4 million tons, which is relatively loose. Currently, the weather conditions in Brazil are excellent, while Argentina is facing drought problems, and there are still many uncertainties in subsequent growth. The northern region of Brazil has started the harvesting work, indicating that the new - season soybeans are approaching the global market. The price of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazil, and it has no export advantage to China. Coupled with the uncertainty of US biodiesel, the market has uncertainties about the demand scale of US soybeans. The weak operation of US soybeans and Argentina's reduction of the export tariff to 25% have led to a decline in the long - term soybean import cost. The domestic oil - mill operating rate is expected to decline but remain at a high level, and a large amount of imported soybeans are arriving. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, the high breeding inventory supports consumption, but the breeding efficiency is not good, and procurement is cautious, mostly on a just - in - time basis. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and weak, and after New Year's Day and before the Spring Festival, the market focus will be on South American weather, auction policy implementation, soybean arrival rhythm, and Spring Festival logistics efficiency [6]. - **Soybean No.2**: Brazilian new soybeans will start to be listed in January, and the global supply is expected to turn to a loose situation. The slow sales of US soybeans to China due to market concerns about US soybean exports are still the focus of the market. Coupled with the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, US soybeans are weak. Affected by a large amount of imports and state - reserve sales, the domestic soybean market shows a pattern of high inventory and high crushing volume, with loose supply. Downstream oil mills have sufficient raw - material inventory and weak demand, and the soybean No.2 market is expected to be volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to uncertainties such as the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and Sino - US trade progress [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The national average trading weight of live pigs is 124.54 kg, a slight decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous period. In some northern provinces, due to the impact of previous pig diseases, some pigs were slaughtered in advance, and farmers' bearish outlook on the future market led to accelerated slaughter. The recent cooling and holiday consumption have accelerated the digestion speed, and the average slaughter weight in local areas has decreased. In some southwestern regions, due to the peak of cured - meat consumption, large - weight live pigs were slaughtered intensively, driving up the average slaughter weight. The inventory of large pigs in the next period will decrease, and the national average trading weight of live pigs may decline. The average settlement price of key national slaughtering enterprises is 12.12 yuan/kg, a 1.2% increase compared with the previous period. The decrease in southern temperatures has increased the demand for cured meat, and some northern slaughtering enterprises have high enthusiasm for purchasing pigs, jointly supporting the increase in the settlement price. The weekly average operating rate of key domestic live - pig slaughtering enterprises has reached 44.29%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points. The snowfall and temperature decrease in the northern region have driven up the terminal pork consumption, and the increase in slaughtering - enterprise orders has driven up the operating rate. The average self - breeding and self - raising profit of live pigs is - 190.92 yuan/head, and the average profit of fattening piglets is - 184.18 yuan/head. The low temperature in most areas, the increase in cured - meat demand in the southwestern region in the early stage, and the increase in pork consumption have driven up the slaughtering operating rate. The demand for live pigs during the New Year's Day holiday has supported the increase in pig prices, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly after the holiday [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the closed - cutting state. The main natural - rubber - producing area in Hainan is in the seasonal shutdown state, with a small amount of output in some western areas. The low enthusiasm for raw - material procurement has led to a low purchase price. The climate conditions in the Thai - producing area are stable, and the new - rubber output maintains a normal level. The northeastern Thai - producing area is expected to gradually stop cutting at the beginning of the year, and the supply side will narrow in the short term, with the raw - rubber price remaining strong. As of late December, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 63.6%. According to CAAM data, the domestic sales volume of new - energy vehicles in November was 1.522 million, a 4.3% increase compared with the previous month and a 6.5% increase compared with the same period last year.

Report Industry Investment Ratings Black Industry - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] Financial - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Consolidation [3] - Gold: Correction [3] - Silver: Correction [3] Light Industry - Logs: Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Rising [4] - Double - offset paper: Stable oscillation [4] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Bullish [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Oscillation [9] Polyester - PX: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low - level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes various industries including black industry, finance, light industry, oilseeds and oils, agricultural products, soft commodities, and polyester It evaluates the current supply - demand situation, policy impacts, and market trends of each industry's products and provides corresponding investment ratings and short - to medium - term trend predictions [2][3][4][6][7][9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - **Iron ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory remain unchanged The real demand is weak, but short - term policy changes bring bullish sentiment, and the futures continue a technical rebound Long - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after restocking [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to be proposed by the end of the month and implemented in early January End - of - year production capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies provide support, but steel export policies may have a negative impact on raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Policy changes bring short - term bullish sentiment, but steel export policies may reduce export volume and impact raw material prices The current steel price is expected to remain bottom - oscillating [2] - **Glass**: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with high inventory due to weak demand Attention should be paid to macro policies and production line cold - repair [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is in short - term oscillation, with some sectors showing capital inflows or outflows The scale of public funds has reached a new high, but stock and hybrid funds have declined [3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations The bond market shows a slight rebound [3] - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic data affect its price It is currently in a short - term correction [3] Light Industry - **Logs**: The spot market price shows a differentiated trend, with supply pressure easing and demand relatively weak The price is expected to oscillate [4] - **Pulp**: The cost supports the pulp price, but demand is weak due to low profitability in the papermaking industry and high inventory in paper mills The price may oscillate [4] - **Double - offset paper**: The supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support Price increases are expected to continue, but the fundamental support is weak [4] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in November, and the inventory pressure is high The demand for bio - diesel is uncertain, and the supply of domestic oils is abundant The market is oscillating bearish [6] - **Meals**: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose, and the supply of soybean meal will be sufficient in the future The price is expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline, and demand is expected to increase due to the approaching New Year's Day The pig price is expected to rise slightly [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Production in major domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas is affected by weather, and the demand is weakly supported The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to oscillate [9] Polyester - **PX**: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine increases supply risks, and the PX price is in wide - range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations affect the cost, and the short - term supply - demand improves, but the long - term outlook is poor The price follows the cost [9] - **MEG**: There is long - term inventory pressure, but imports may decrease in the next two months The price is in low - level oscillation [9] - **PR**: Supply increases, and the market is under pressure, expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PF**: The inventory is low, but downstream orders are insufficient The market is expected to oscillate [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Pulp: Oscillating [8] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Rebounding [8] - Palm oil: Rebounding [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebounding [8] - Soybean meal: Weakly oscillating [8] - Rapeseed meal: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 2: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 1: Weakly oscillating [8] - Live pigs: Oscillating [10] - Rubber: Oscillating [12] - PX: Widely oscillating [12] - PTA: Widely oscillating [12] - MEG: Oscillating at a low level [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features a loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories in 2026, with new global mine production increasing by 64 - 65 million tons, outpacing the growth of crude steel production. Real - demand is weak, and the steel export license system is a definite negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds offer opportunities to enter short positions [2]. - Coking coal and coke are supported by capacity inspections, safety inspections, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license system shifts market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives, impacting raw material demand and prices [2]. - The sentiment in the rebar market is boosted by policies emphasizing domestic demand, and the black sector has rebounded. The steel export license system requires a downward adjustment of steel export expectations for next year, and the impact of potential crude steel production control policies should be noted [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand imbalance. Although there is a cold - repair expectation for some production lines before the Spring Festival, supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the decline in real - estate completion [2]. - In the financial market, the central bank's monetary policy meeting emphasizes the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies. The new version of the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment" guides more foreign investment. The power consumption data shows growth, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple factors such as the US debt issue, geopolitical risks, and increased Chinese physical gold demand support the upward trend of gold prices, despite short - term fluctuations [6]. - Logs have a supply - demand pattern of weakening supply pressure and relatively weak demand, with prices expected to oscillate. Pulp has a loose supply - demand situation, and prices may remain oscillating. Offset paper prices are expected to weakly oscillate in the short term [6][8]. - In the oil and oilseed market, the demand for oils is uncertain, but they are rebounding in the short term driven by the strengthening of crude oil. The soybean market has a relatively loose supply, and prices of soybean meal and soybeans are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The live - pig market has a complex relationship between supply and demand. The average trading weight may decline, and the average price is expected to oscillate in the coming week [10]. - The rubber market has supply disruptions in major producing areas and a demand - side support that is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to oscillate. The polyester market has different trends for each product, with PX and PTA having wide - range oscillations, MEG having low - level oscillations, and PR and PF being on the sidelines [12]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mine production will increase significantly, with real demand weakening due to factors like falling hot - metal production and high plate inventories. The steel export license system is a negative for raw materials, and short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Supported by capacity inspections and anti - involution policies, but the steel export license system changes market expectations, affecting raw material demand and prices [2]. - Rebar: Policy boosts market sentiment, and the black sector rebounds. The steel export license system requires adjusting export expectations, and the impact of crude steel production control policies should be watched [2]. - Glass: Supply - demand imbalance persists, with cold - repair expectations not fully met, and demand weakening due to the real - estate situation [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices show different trends, and the market is affected by central bank policies and industry - specific capital flows [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is in a small - scale rebound after a short - term net cash withdrawal by the central bank [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors support the upward trend, with short - term fluctuations affected by interest - rate policies and geopolitical risks [6]. - Silver: Similar to gold, it oscillates with an upward bias, affected by macro - economic data and geopolitical factors [6]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is relatively weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][8]. - Pulp: Supply - demand is loose, and prices may remain oscillating [8]. - Offset paper: Prices are expected to weakly oscillate in the short term, with potential large - scale price fluctuations [8]. Oil and Oilseeds - Oils: Demand is uncertain, but they are rebounding in the short term driven by crude oil. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [8]. - Meal and soybeans: Supply is relatively loose, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with short - term rebounds possible, and attention should be paid to multiple uncertainties [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may change, and demand is affected by festivals. The average price is expected to oscillate in the coming week [10]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient, inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to oscillate [12]. Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices have wide - range oscillations, affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships in the polyester industry [12]. - MEG: Prices oscillate at a low level, with long - term inventory pressure and short - term supply - side changes to be watched [12]. - PR and PF: The market is on the sidelines, with different trends based on their own supply - demand and cost situations [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings by Industry - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass all show a "rebound" trend; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 shows an "oscillation" trend [2] - **Financial Sector**: CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury, and 5 - year Treasury show an "oscillation" trend; CSI 500, CSI 1000 show a "rebound" trend; 10 - year Treasury is in "consolidation"; gold and silver show an "oscillation - strong" trend [4] - **Light Industry**: Logs show "bottom - oscillation"; pulp shows "oscillation"; double - offset paper shows "weak - oscillation" [5] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil show a "rebound" trend; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1 show an "oscillation - bearish" trend [6] - **Agricultural Products**: Pigs show a "strong" trend; rubber shows an "oscillation" trend [8] - **Polyester**: PX, PTA, and MEG show an "oscillation" trend; PR and PF are in a "wait - and - see" state [9] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The iron ore market is characterized by "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation". The implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative factor for raw materials. For coal coke, short - term factors such as capacity review and safety inspection boost the market, but the change in export policy may have a negative impact. The overall black sector rebounds due to short - term fundamental improvement and policy support [2] - **Financial Sector**: The market shows short - term oscillation and consolidation, with a continued medium - term upward trend. The high - tech industry continues to grow. The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the Fed's interest - rate policy affect its price [4] - **Light Industry**: The log market is in a state of weak supply - demand balance, with prices expected to oscillate at the bottom. The pulp market is affected by cost and demand factors, and the price may return to an oscillatory state after the digestion of positive factors. The double - offset paper market is under supply pressure and is expected to show weak oscillation [5] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The oil market rebounds in the short term due to the support of crude oil prices, but the demand outlook is uncertain. The meal market is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [6] - **Agricultural Products**: The pig market may see a slight increase in prices in the future due to factors such as increased consumption and stable supply. The rubber market is affected by supply and demand factors, with prices expected to oscillate [8] - **Polyester**: The polyester market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. The prices of various products are expected to show oscillatory or wait - and - see trends [9] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current iron - water production is decreasing, steel - mill maintenance expectations are increasing, and real - world demand is weak. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds due to restocking and macro - sentiment are opportunities to enter short positions [2] - **Coal Coke**: Capacity review, safety inspections, and anti - involution policies boost market sentiment, but the change in export policy may lead to a shift in market expectations from supply - side positives to demand - side negatives [2] - **Rolled Steel and Glass**: The government's emphasis on expanding domestic demand and short - term improvement in the steel fundamentals boost the black sector. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations. Glass rebounds due to factors such as price decline, macro - sentiment fermentation, and production - line cold - repair [2] 3.2 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The market is expected to maintain short - term oscillation and a medium - term upward trend [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 1bp, and the market shows a slight rebound. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [4] - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the Fed's interest - rate policy support its price in the medium and long term [4][5] 3.3 Light Industry - **Logs**: Last week, the average daily port shipment of logs decreased, and the import volume from New Zealand and China decreased. This week, the expected arrival volume increased significantly. The spot - market price is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5] - **Pulp**: The spot - market price of pulp is differentiated, and the increase in external - market prices strengthens cost support. However, due to the low profitability of the paper industry and high inventory pressure, demand is weak, and the price may return to an oscillatory state [5] - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot - market price is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The demand from publication orders provides support, but social - order demand is average, and the price is expected to show weak oscillation [5] 3.4 Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The U.S. soybean crushing is at a high level, and the export of Malaysian palm oil is weak with high inventory. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the consumption recovery is weak. The oil price rebounds in the short term due to the support of crude oil prices [6] - **Meals**: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose, and the market has a strong expectation of a high yield of South American soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the price is expected to show an oscillatory - bearish trend [6] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The average trading weight of pigs decreases slightly, and the demand for pork increases due to the drop in temperature. The slaughter - enterprise settlement price may increase, and the market supply is stable. The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening decreases, while that of piglet fattening increases [8] - **Rubber**: The rubber production in domestic and foreign regions is affected by weather conditions. The demand side shows an increase in production - capacity utilization, but the inventory shows a slight accumulation trend. The price is expected to oscillate [8] 3.6 Polyester - **PX**: The supply of PX is at a high level, and the downstream polyester load decreases. The PX price is affected by oil prices [9] - **PTA**: The cost of PTA fluctuates due to oil - price changes, and the short - term supply - demand situation improves, but the long - term situation may deteriorate [9] - **MEG**: There is a long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and the near - month situation improves due to supply reduction. The price oscillates in the short term [9] - **PR and PF**: PR has strong raw - material support but weak downstream demand; PF has low inventory and is expected to have a warm price adjustment [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Oscillating [7] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [7] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Stronger [9] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: Weakly oscillating [11] - PTA: Weakly oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market features "ample supply, low demand, and rising port inventories." In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. Current molten iron production is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. Steel exports with licenses will limit exports, negatively impacting raw materials. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - The coal and coke market was affected by the lack of incremental policy information from the Central Economic Work Conference. Steel export licensing will limit exports, shifting market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, year - end coal mine production cuts, and long - term anti - involution strategies support coal and coke prices [2]. - The steel market is affected by export licensing, and expectations for next year's steel exports need to be lowered. The real estate new construction has fallen to 2005 levels, and domestic demand remains weak. Steel prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2]. - The glass market has seen a recent decline in prices in the Shahe area. Processing orders are sluggish, and demand is insufficient. Although the inventory of float glass sample enterprises has decreased, it is still up by over 20% year - on - year. The demand outlook is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion, and whether the price can stop falling depends on the cold - repair progress [2]. - In the financial market, the previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to boost domestic demand, and the Central Financial Office emphasized expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year. The high - tech industry continues to grow, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - The gold market's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute is prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases support gold prices in the medium and long term, while the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors [6]. - The log market has seen a decrease in daily port shipments and national daily out - warehouse volume. The volume of New Zealand's log shipments to China in November decreased by 3% compared to the previous month. Although the expected arrival volume this week has increased significantly, the supply pressure may gradually ease due to the seasonal decrease in shipments. The demand is not weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - The pulp market has a differentiated spot price. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. After the digestion of positive factors, the price may return to an oscillating trend based on the supply - demand fundamentals [7]. - The oil market has high US soybean crushing levels, but the uncertainty of renewable energy blending obligations and weak exports have led to uncertain demand prospects. The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased significantly, and the inventory is high. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the oil price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7]. - The meal market has a relatively loose global soybean ending inventory. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans is increasing. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is stable, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - The live pig market has a stable overall supply, and the slaughter rate has increased slightly. The terminal demand growth is limited, and there is a game between supply and demand. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9]. - The rubber market has different production situations in different regions. The demand side has a certain degree of recovery, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - The polyester market is affected by the decline in oil prices. The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA is seasonally weakening. The long - term inventory pressure of MEG exists, and the polyester bottle - chip and polyester fiber markets are also under pressure [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is ample, demand is low, and port inventories are rising. In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons. Current molten iron production is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. Steel export licensing will limit exports, negatively impacting raw materials. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2]. - Coal and coke: Affected by the lack of incremental policy information, the market shifted expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, year - end coal mine production cuts, and long - term anti - involution strategies support prices [2]. - Rolled steel: Export licensing affects exports, and expectations for next year's steel exports need to be lowered. Real estate new construction has fallen to 2005 levels, and domestic demand is weak. Prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2]. - Glass: Prices in the Shahe area have declined. Processing orders are sluggish, and demand is insufficient. Although inventory has decreased, it is still up by over 20% year - on - year. The demand outlook is dragged down by real estate completion, and the price trend depends on cold - repair progress [2]. - Soda ash: Similar to the glass market, affected by supply and demand and cold - repair progress [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to boost domestic demand, and the Central Financial Office emphasized expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year. The high - tech industry continues to grow, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond was flat, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 1.8 billion yuan. The bond market is in a short - term rebound trend [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute is prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases support prices in the medium and long term, while the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors [6]. - Silver: Similar to gold, oscillating with an upward bias [6]. Light Industry - Logs: Daily port shipments and national daily out - warehouse volume have decreased. The volume of New Zealand's log shipments to China in November decreased by 3% compared to the previous month. Although the expected arrival volume this week has increased significantly, the supply pressure may gradually ease due to the seasonal decrease in shipments. The demand is not weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices are differentiated. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. After the digestion of positive factors, the price may return to an oscillating trend based on the supply - demand fundamentals [7]. - Offset paper: The spot price is stable. Some production has resumed in Shandong, and supply pressure remains. Demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: High US soybean crushing levels, but the uncertainty of renewable energy blending obligations and weak exports have led to uncertain demand prospects. The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased significantly, and the inventory is high. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the oil price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7]. - Meals: A relatively loose global soybean ending inventory. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans is increasing. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is stable, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The overall supply is stable, and the slaughter rate has increased slightly. The terminal demand growth is limited, and there is a game between supply and demand. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Different production situations in different regions. The demand side has a certain degree of recovery, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Polyester - PX: Market concerns about future supply surplus are obvious. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, and oil prices have fallen. The supply is high, and the price is affected by oil prices [11]. - PTA: The cost side is loosened due to the decline in oil prices. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the industry is seasonally weakening. The price is expected to follow the cost side in the short term [11]. - MEG: There is long - term inventory pressure, and the short - term situation has improved due to supply reduction. The price is expected to oscillate with upward pressure [11]. - PR: Affected by the decline in oil prices and general demand, the polyester bottle - chip market may continue to be weak [11]. - PF: Although the current price of polyester staple fiber is low and the enterprise inventory is low, the large decline in oil prices may lead to price oscillation in the near future [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [7] - Pulp: Oscillating with an upward bias [8] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Trading in a range [8] - Palm oil: Trading in a range [8] - Rapeseed oil: Trading in a range [8] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [10] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [10] - Live pigs: Weakening [10] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [12] - PX: Widely oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [12] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Report's Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market features ample supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current molten iron production is declining month-on-month, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of a permit management system for steel exports will limit exports and negatively impact raw materials. It is advisable to look for opportunities to sell on rebounds [2]. - The coal - coking market was affected by the lack of incremental policy information in the Central Economic Work Conference. The permit management system for steel exports has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, there is still downstream restocking demand before the Spring Festival, and some participants are worried about policy reversals, which supports coal and coke prices [2]. - The rebar market has low downstream demand, and winter restocking has not yet started. It remains in an oscillating state. The core lies in steel demand, and domestic demand remains weak. Steel prices will stop falling if production is cut by over 5% in Q4 2025 and the "anti - involution" policy is implemented effectively [2]. - The glass market has seen a recent weakening in prices. Processing orders are in a downturn, and demand is insufficient. Although inventory has been decreasing, it is still higher than the same period last year. Whether prices can stop falling depends on the progress of cold repairs [2]. - In the financial market, the performance of major Chinese economic indicators is better than expected. In 2026, policies will be introduced to promote the synchronous growth of residents' income and the economy, and the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and the medium - term trend remains positive [4]. - The gold market's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute has become prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support for gold prices, while the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [7]. - The log market has seen an increase in port shipments, but the demand improvement's sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure may gradually ease, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - The pulp market's spot price has weakened. Although cost support has increased, the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. The price may return to a supply - demand - driven oscillating state after the digestion of positive news [8]. - The oil and fat market has uncertainties in demand due to factors such as the US biodiesel policy and weak exports. Although there is support from raw material costs and seasonal palm oil production cuts, the overall market is expected to trade in a range [8]. - The soybean meal market has a relatively loose global supply. The US soybean has no export advantage, and the market expects a bumper harvest in South America. The domestic supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The live - pig market has a stable overall supply, but the demand growth is limited. The average weekly price is expected to continue to decline [10]. - The rubber market has supply disruptions in some regions due to weather. The demand side is gradually recovering, but inventory is accumulating seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - The PX market has a high supply, but the downstream polyester load has rebounded, and the price is widely oscillating. The PTA market's cost is unstable, and the short - term supply - demand has improved, but it will deteriorate seasonally. The MEG market has a long - term inventory build - up pressure, and the price is weakly oscillating [12]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is ample, demand is low, and port inventories are rising. In 2026, new global mine production will increase significantly, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of a permit system for steel exports is negative for raw materials. Look for selling opportunities on rebounds [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Affected by policy information and the steel export policy, the market has shifted from supply - side expectations to demand - side concerns. However, downstream restocking demand and policy concerns support prices [2]. - Rebar: Downstream demand is low, and winter restocking has not started. It oscillates, and the core lies in steel demand. Steel prices depend on production cuts and policy implementation [2]. - Glass: Prices are weakening, processing orders are few, demand is insufficient. Although inventory is decreasing, it is higher than last year. Cold - repair progress determines price trends [2]. - Soda ash: Similar to the glass market, it is in a weak state [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The financial data in November showed good performance, and the central economic work meeting released positive signals. The market's bullish sentiment is rising [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is slightly rebounding. The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the market is affected by monetary policy [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, with central bank gold purchases becoming crucial. The US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and Chinese central bank's gold - buying support prices. The Fed's interest - rate policy is a short - term factor [7]. - Silver: Similar to gold, it oscillates with an upward bias [7]. Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and出库量 are increasing, but demand improvement's sustainability is uncertain. Supply pressure may ease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - Pulp: Spot prices have weakened, cost support has increased, but paper industry demand is weak. The price may return to an oscillating state [8]. - Offset paper: The spot price is stable, supply changes little, and demand is weak. It is expected to weakly oscillate [8]. Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: There are uncertainties in demand due to policies and exports. Although there is cost support, the overall market is expected to trade in a range [8]. - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal: Global supply is loose, the US soybean has no export advantage, and South American harvest expectations are high. The domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The overall supply is stable, demand growth is limited, and the average weekly price is expected to decline [10]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, but inventory is accumulating seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Polyester - PX: Supply is high, downstream polyester load has rebounded, and the price is widely oscillating [12]. - PTA: Cost is unstable, short - term supply - demand has improved but will deteriorate seasonally. The price follows the cost [12]. - MEG: Long - term inventory build - up pressure exists, and the price is weakly oscillating [12]. - PR: The market may stop falling and stabilize [12]. - PF: The price may oscillate and consolidate [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weakening [2] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Oscillating weakly [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [6] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [6] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [6] - Pulp: Oscillating strongly [8] - Offset paper: Oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Trading in a range [8] - Palm oil: Trading in a range [8] - Rapeseed oil: Trading in a range [8] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [9] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [9] - Live pigs: Weakening [9] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [11] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The main trend of the iron ore market remains "loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories". The price of iron ore will oscillate weakly, and there may be opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - The supply of coking coal and coke faces short - term pressure, and the prices are weakening. However, there is support at the bottom [2]. - The downstream demand for rebar is sluggish, and the price is oscillating. The steel price depends on production cuts and the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - The price of glass is weakening, and its future trend depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The central economic work conference sets a tone for next year's economic policy. The stock index futures market shows different trends, and the bond market is consolidating [4]. - The price of gold is oscillating strongly, supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, etc. The short - term factors are the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment [6]. - The log market has weak demand and is oscillating at the bottom. The pulp market is oscillating strongly, affected by cost and demand [6][8]. - The price of edible oils is trading in a range, affected by factors such as demand, inventory, and production [8]. - The price of soybean meal and related products is oscillating, affected by factors such as global supply, trade, and domestic demand [8][9]. - The price of live pigs is weakening, with stable supply and limited terminal - demand growth [9]. - The price of rubber is oscillating weakly, with supply affected by weather and demand not strong enough [11]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF in the polyester market show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the price oscillates weakly. There may be opportunities to short on rebounds after restocking [2]. - **Coal and coke**: In November, Mongolian coal imports are expected to reach a new high this year. The second round of coke price cuts has started. The prices are weakening, but there is support at the bottom [2]. - **Rebar**: Downstream demand is low, and the winter - storage restocking has not started. The price is oscillating, and the core lies in steel demand [2]. - **Glass**: The price is weakening. The processing orders are sluggish. The inventory is decreasing but still higher than the same period last year. The future trend depends on cold - repair progress [2]. Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The central economic work conference emphasizes positive fiscal and monetary policies. The stock index shows different trends, and the market is affected by factors such as industry capital flow and economic policies [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is flat, and the market is in a small - scale rebound after a net capital withdrawal [4]. - **Automobile and real estate**: In November, automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicles had strong growth. In 2026, more real - estate policies are expected, and the decline in the new - commodity - housing sales area is expected to narrow [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Their prices are oscillating strongly, supported by central bank gold purchases, "de - dollarization", geopolitical risks, and increased physical - gold demand in China. The short - term factors are the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment [6]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The port shipment volume and national出库 volume have increased, but the demand is in the off - season. The supply pressure may gradually decrease, and the price is oscillating at the bottom [6][8]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is rising, and the cost support is increasing. However, the demand is not strong, and the price may return to the supply - demand fundamentals after the digestion of positive news [8]. - **Offset paper**: The spot price is stable. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Edible oils**: The demand for soybean oil has uncertainties. The palm - oil inventory in Malaysia is high, and the domestic oil supply is abundant. The price is expected to trade in a range [8]. - **Soybean meal and related products**: The global soybean supply is loose. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand has support but also has problems. The price is expected to oscillate [8][9]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight shows different trends in the north and south. The terminal - demand growth is limited, and the price is expected to decline further [9]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply in different regions is affected by weather. The demand is not strong enough, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11]. Polyester - **PX**: The supply is high, and the demand is boosted. The price is in wide - range oscillation [11]. - **PTA**: The cost is unstable, and the short - term supply - demand improves, but the long - term trend is weak. The price follows the cost [11]. - **MEG**: The long - term inventory pressure exists, and the short - term price is weakly oscillating [11]. - **PR and PF**: PR may stop falling and stabilize, and PF is at a low - price level [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rolled steel and spiral steel: Oscillating weakly [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [3] - CSI 300: Oscillating [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5 - year treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10 - year treasury bond: Consolidating [3] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [5] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [5] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [4][7] - Pulp: Oscillating [7] - Offset paper: Oscillating [7] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [7][8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [7][8] - Soybean No.2: Oscillating [7][8] - Soybean No.1: Oscillating [8] - Live pigs: Weak [8] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [10] - PX: Widely oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The main line of "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" in the iron ore market remains unchanged, and the price will oscillate weakly. For coking coal and coke, there is short - term supply pressure, and prices have adjusted significantly. The downstream demand for rolled steel and spiral steel is weak, and prices are at the bottom. Glass demand is weak, and its price depends on cold - repair progress. In the financial sector, the Fed's interest - rate policy and market sentiment affect the performance of stock indexes and treasury bonds. Precious metals are supported by central - bank gold purchases, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks. In the light - industry sector, logs and pulp prices are in an oscillating state due to supply - demand re - balancing. In the oil - and - oilseed sector, the demand for oils is uncertain, and the supply of meal is abundant. The live - pig market is weak, with possible further price declines. Rubber prices may oscillate weakly due to supply and demand factors. In the polyester sector, prices are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand [2][3][5][7][8][10] Summaries by Industry Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and prices will oscillate weakly. After the Fed's December meeting and the domestic economic - work conference, the macro - sentiment may improve, but substantial improvement will come in the peak season next year. Before the Spring Festival, restocking only provides support at the bottom. One should look for opportunities to short on rebounds [2] - Coking coal and coke: In November, Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high this year, and there is short - term supply pressure. The second round of coke price cuts has started. Although there is restocking demand before the year and coal mines may cut production at the end of the year, prices will find support at the bottom [2] - Rolled steel and spiral steel: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter restocking has not started. The core lies in steel demand. Steel prices will stop falling if production is cut by more than 5% in Q4 2025 and the "anti - involution" policy is implemented effectively. Currently, prices are oscillating at the bottom [2] - Glass: The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and demand is insufficient. Some glass factories have postponed cold - repair plans. Although inventory has decreased, it is still up by more than 20% year - on - year. Whether prices can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress [2][3] Financial Sector - Stock indexes: The performance of different stock indexes varies. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's bullish sentiment has recovered. The mid - term trend continues, and the high - tech industry continues to grow [3] - Treasury bonds: The central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations, and the market trend has a slight rebound. The Ministry of Finance will conduct a roll - over of 750 billion yuan of special treasury bonds [3] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: In the context of high interest rates and globalization restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. The Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term disturbing factors, while central - bank gold purchases, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [5] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and national out - of - storage volumes have increased, but demand improvement needs further observation. The supply pressure may gradually decrease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][7] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand is weak due to the low profitability of the papermaking industry and high inventory of paper mills. Prices are expected to return to an oscillating state [7] - Double - offset paper: The spot - market price is stable. The supply side changes little, and the mid - month publication orders are conducive to paper - enterprise sales. However, weak social demand restricts price increases, and short - term prices will remain oscillating [7] Oil and Oilseed - Oils: The demand for US soybeans for crushing is strong, but the biodiesel policy is uncertain, and exports are weak. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the domestic oil supply is abundant. With cost support and seasonal factors, oils are expected to continue range - bound trading [7] - Meals: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose. The market has an increasing expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and demand is cautious. With import - cost support, prices are expected to oscillate [7][8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The national average trading weight of live pigs shows a north - up and south - down trend. The settlement price may decline further. The slaughter - enterprise opening rate has increased slightly. The supply is stable, and consumption has increased slightly. The self - breeding and self - raising profit has decreased, and the profit from fattening piglets has increased. The weekly average price of live pigs may continue to decline [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The raw - material prices in Yunnan are stable, and the production in Hainan is affected by weather, with a lower - than - expected output. The supply in Thailand has improved, and the supply in Vietnam is tight. Demand support is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. Prices may oscillate weakly [10] Polyester - PX: The Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical tensions have led to an oil - price rebound. The PX supply is high, but downstream demand has increased, and prices will oscillate widely [10] - PTA: Oil - price fluctuations affect the cost of PTA. Although short - term supply and demand have improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable. Prices will follow cost fluctuations [10] - MEG: There is long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and the short - term supply has decreased. Prices will oscillate weakly [10] - PR: After the interest - rate cut, there is no new positive news, and the market may stop falling and stabilize [10] - PF: Although the terminal performance is average, the current price of polyester staple fiber is low, and prices may oscillate and consolidate [10][11]