Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1650 in the short - term [6] - The domestic urea market rose first and then fell this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong increased to 1540 - 1600 yuan/ton, with the average price up 40 yuan/ton from the previous week [7] - The recovery of previously overhauled plants has increased domestic urea production. There are no planned plant shutdowns next week, and 5 - 6 shut - down plants may resume production, so the probability of increased production is high [7] - Agricultural demand continues to be released, and some reserve demand may follow up. Industrial demand, especially in the compound fertilizer sector, has led to an increase in the utilization rate of domestic compound fertilizer production capacity. The autumn fertilizer orders are nearing completion, and the compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to adjust slightly [7] - The release of suppressed demand and the follow - up of reserve demand have increased new orders and shipments of urea plants. Urea enterprise inventories decreased this week and are expected to fluctuate little in the short term [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1600 - 1650 range in the short - term [6] - Market review: The domestic urea market rose first and then fell. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong increased to 1540 - 1600 yuan/ton, with the average price up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] - Market outlook: Production is likely to increase. Agricultural and industrial demand is being released, and enterprise inventories are expected to be stable in the short term [7] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures market** - The price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.04% [13] - As of October 31, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 78 [15] - As of October 30, there were 0 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 5407 from the previous week [23] - **Spot market** - As of October 30, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [29] - As of October 30, the FOB price of urea in China was 375 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [33] - As of October 30, the urea basis was - 27 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous week [37] 3.3. Industrial Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of October 29, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [40] - As of October 30, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.06 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.72 US dollars/million British thermal units from the previous week [40] - **Industry** - As of October 30, China's urea production was 131.53 tons, up 3.74 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.32%, up 2.29% from the previous period [43] - As of October 30, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons, a decline of 47.62%. As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5543 million tons, a decrease of 75,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.66% [46] - In September 2025, urea exports were 1.3712 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 72.12%. The average export price was 424.93 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 93.01% [49] - **Downstream** - As of October 30, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 31.04%, up 3.33 percentage points from the previous week. The utilization rate of melamine production capacity was 49.98% on average, up 1.68 percentage points from the previous week [52]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from the high level, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, but the market is expected to warm up in the short term. It is predicted that the UR contract will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. - Bullish factors include strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production. Bearish factor is domestic oversupply [5]. Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory is down slightly. Agricultural demand rebounds, industrial demand is weak, export volume increases. Domestic market is oversupplied, but short - term market is expected to warm up. Spot price of delivery product is 1590 (+20), overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of UR2601 contract is - 50, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract rebounds on the disk. Industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand rebounds, international urea prices are strong, and export volume increases. The domestic market is still significantly oversupplied, and the price is expected to warm up in the short term, with a predicted volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. Spot and Futures Data | Category | Details | | ---- | ---- | | **Spot** | Spot delivery product price is 1590 (+20), Shandong spot price is 1610 (+40), Henan spot price is 1590 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2666 [6]. | | **Futures** | UR01 contract price is 1640 (- 2), UR05 contract price is 1713 (- 6), UR09 contract price is 1745 (- 3). The basis of UR01 is - 50 (+22) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 5288 (- 119), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons, UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the short - term market is expected to warm up. The UR is predicted to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. 3. Key Points by Section Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are starting to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but narrowing price difference between domestic and international markets. The overall domestic urea supply still exceeds demand, but the short - term market is expected to improve. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 72, with a premium/discount ratio of - 4.6%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract's price has rebounded. Industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rising, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume has increased. Although the domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand, the short - term price is expected to warm up, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Domestic supply exceeding demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1570, with a change of +20; Shandong spot price is 1570, with a change of +20; Henan spot price is 1570, with no change; FOB China price is 2742 [6]. | | **Futures** | The price of the 01 contract is 1642, with a change of +4; the basis is - 72, with a change of +16; UR05 price is 1719, with a change of +9; UR09 price is 1748, with a change of +8 [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 5407, with a change of - 77; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 221,000 tons); UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons (+15,000 tons); UR port inventory is 210,000 tons (- 236,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1660 in the short - term [7] - The domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly at a low level this week. The average price of mainstream small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [8] - Recently, new urea plants in China have stopped production, and the output has decreased slightly. Next week, the probability of output increase is high. Agricultural demand has increased moderately, and industrial demand is tepid. The inventory may still show an increasing trend [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1660 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly at a low level this week. The average price of mainstream small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped to 1500 - 1560 yuan/ton, with an average price down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [8] - Market outlook: New urea plants have stopped production, and the output has decreased slightly. Next week, the probability of output increase is high. Agricultural demand has increased moderately, and industrial demand is tepid. Inventory may still increase [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Futures price: The price of the main urea contract in Zhengzhou closed up with a weekly increase of 2.5% [11] - Inter - period spread: As of October 24, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 77 [14] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Futures warehouse receipts: As of October 24, there were 5407 urea warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 887 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of October 23, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [27] - Foreign spot price: As of October 23, the FOB price of urea in China was 360 US dollars/ton, with no change from last week [31] - Basis: As of October 23, the urea basis was - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4 Industry Chain - Upstream: As of October 22, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 23, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.29 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.29 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] - Industry: As of October 23, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 127.79 tons, a decrease of 4.26 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.03%, a decrease of 2.61% from the previous period. As of October 23, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.6 tons, a decrease of 52.91%. As of October 22, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 163.02 tons, an increase of 1.48 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.92%. In September 2025, urea exports were 137.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72.12%; the average export price was 424.93 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 93.01% [42][45][48] - Downstream: As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 27.71%, a week - on - week increase of 3.53 percentage points. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 48.30%, a decrease of 6.88 percentage points from last week [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of a continued decrease in urea production is high, with the short - term forecast for the UR2601 contract to fluctuate between 1590 - 1650 yuan/ton. Agricultural urea sales have increased slightly, while compound fertilizer companies are reducing inventory and maintaining low开工率. Domestic urea enterprise inventory has only increased slightly [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1621 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 70 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main contract position is 312,046 hands, down 121 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 41,450, down 526; the exchange warehouse receipt is 5,556 sheets, down 501 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Urea prices in Hebei are 1580 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1540 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Jiangsu 1550 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Shandong 1540 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and Anhui 1560 yuan/ton (unchanged). The main contract basis is - 69 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. FOB Baltic is 370 dollars/ton (unchanged), and FOB China Main Port is 385 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 44.6 million tons, up 3.1 million tons; enterprise inventory is 161.54 million tons, up 17.15 million tons. The urea enterprise开工率 is 80.64%, down 5.02%; daily production is 188,600 tons, down 11,800 tons. Urea exports are 137 million tons, up 57 million tons; monthly production is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer开工率 is 24.18%, down 1.32%; the melamine开工率 is 55.18%, down 10.29%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 167 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine (external urea procurement) is 228 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Monthly compound fertilizer production is 466.18 million tons, down 65.15 million tons; weekly melamine production is 27,400 tons, down 2,600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 22, enterprise inventory increased by 0.92% week - on - week; as of October 16, port inventory increased by 7.47% week - on - week. As of October 16, production decreased by 5.01% week - on - week, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreased by 4.25% week - on - week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high inventory of urea enterprises exerts significant pressure on the urea market. The short - term forecast for the UR2601 contract is a price fluctuation between 1590 - 1650 yuan/ton. As the urea price drops below the previous low of the year, downstream buyers' enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices has increased, and they are advised to buy on dips. However, due to the weak market trading atmosphere and slow urea shipment, the probability of a further decrease in production is high, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may remain low [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1609 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 312,167 lots, down 10,020 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 40,924 lots, up 2,398 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,057 lots, down 181 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Anhui decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained stable. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 69 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 44.6 tons, up 3.1 tons week - on - week; enterprise inventory is 161.54 tons, up 17.15 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, down 5.02 percentage points; the daily output is 188,600 tons, down 11,800 tons. The urea export volume is 137 tons, up 57 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 24.18%, down 1.32 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 55.18%, down 10.29 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 167 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 65.15 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 466.18 tons, and the weekly output of melamine is 27,400 tons, down 2,600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, up 17.15 tons week - on - week, a 11.88% increase. As of October 16, the port inventory was 44.6 tons, up 3.1 tons week - on - week, a 7.47% increase. The production of Chinese urea enterprises was 132.05 tons, down 6.97 tons, a 5.01% decrease, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, down 4.25 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand, and the market situation is bearish. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today. Although international urea prices are strong, they have limited support for domestic prices, and both industrial and agricultural demands are weak [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a high level, and comprehensive inventory has significantly accumulated. Both industrial and agricultural demands are weak. The price difference between domestic and foreign exports is large, but it has limited support for domestic prices. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly [5]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong [6]. - **Negative Factors**: High operating daily production, weak domestic demand, and continued inventory accumulation [6]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. Specific Indicators - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -52, and the premium/discount ratio is -3.4%, indicating a bearish trend [5]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 2.061 million tons (+203,000 tons), showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish outlook [5]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The price of the delivery - grade spot is 1,550 (unchanged) [5]. - **Futures**: The UR01 contract price is 1,602 (unchanged), the UR05 contract price is 1,672 (unchanged), and the UR09 contract price is 1,705 (unchanged) [7]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 6,294 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 2.061 million tons (+203,000 tons), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.615 million tons, and UR port inventory is 446,000 tons [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of urea from 2018 to 2025E, including data on capacity, capacity growth rate, production, net imports, import dependence, apparent consumption, ending inventory, actual consumption, and consumption growth rate. For example, in 2019, the capacity was 24.455 million tons, with a growth rate of 8.9%, and the production was 22.4 million tons [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic urea market is currently characterized by a loose supply - demand situation. Although the export window is about to close and the impact on the domestic market sentiment is limited, the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support. With the end of autumn fertilizer demand in North and Central China, the overall demand is declining. In the short term, the domestic demand remains limited, and the spot market sentiment is still low. The fundamental situation is still loose, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1600 (unchanged, 0% change) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices were stable to slightly lower, and the trading volume was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1490 - 1500 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1400 - 1470 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On October 20th, the daily urea production in the industry was 182,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous working day and a decrease of 6600 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.99%, a decrease of 6.83 percentage points compared to 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Market Sentiment and Price Forecast**: In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory price led the decline, and the market sentiment was average. It is expected that the ex - factory price will be weakly stable. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the ex - factory price followed the decline. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory price was weakly stable, and it is expected to decline mainly. - **Supply and Demand**: Some plants were under maintenance, and the average daily production decreased to around 187,000 tons. On the demand side, the result of the Indian tender was about to be announced. Although the price difference between domestic and foreign markets was large, the export window was about to close. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China was basically over, the grass - roots stocking was coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants declined, and the demand for raw materials was low. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 170,000 tons to around 1.61 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Short on rebounds. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1580 - 1630 yuan/ton. High inventory exerts significant pressure on the urea market. With the urea price falling below the previous low of the year, downstream buyers are more enthusiastic about replenishing at low prices, and they are maintaining a strategy of buying on dips. However, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and urea shipments have slowed down. The probability of a further decrease in production is relatively high. The agricultural demand in the north has been postponed, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may remain low in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 322,187 lots, an increase of 8,441 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 43,322 lots, a decrease of 3,148 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,238 lots, a decrease of 56 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1590 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan is 1550 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jiangsu is 1560 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong is 1560 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton), and in Anhui is 1570 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 370 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 385 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 44.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47%. The enterprise inventory is 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, a decrease of 5.02%. The daily urea output is 188,600 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons. The urea export volume is 80 tons, an increase of 23 tons. The monthly urea output is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32%. The melamine operating rate is 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 167 yuan/ton, and the monthly output of compound fertilizer is 531.33 tons, a decrease of 19 tons. The weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is 109.21 yuan/ton, and the weekly output of melamine is 27,400 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. As of October 16, the port inventory was 44.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47%. As of October 16, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 132.05 tons, a decrease of 6.97 tons compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market rose slightly from a low level. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong increased to 1,520 - 1,580 yuan/ton, with the average price up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price remained mostly in a stalemate and fluctuated according to actual demand and sentiment later [5]. - Recently, some domestic urea plants have shut down, and no shutdown plants have resumed production, leading to a significant decrease in production. Next week, it is expected that 2 enterprises' plants will plan to shut down, and 6 - 7 shutdown plants may resume production. Considering possible short - term enterprise failures, the probability of a further decrease in production is relatively high [5]. - Continuous rainfall in the north has postponed agricultural demand, reducing the flow of urea. More compound fertilizer enterprises' plants have reduced their loads and shut down. In the short term, enterprises will continue to reduce inventory, and the plant operating rate may remain at a low level [5]. - As the urea price has fallen below the previous low of the year, downstream enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices has increased, maintaining the strategy of buying on dips. Due to the weak market trading atmosphere, urea transportation has slowed down, and the inventory of urea enterprises has continued to accumulate this week. High inventory exerts great pressure on the urea market [5]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,580 - 1,630 in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market rose slightly from a low level this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong increased to 1,520 - 1,580 yuan/ton, with the average price up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Production is likely to continue to decline. Agricultural demand is postponed, and compound fertilizer enterprises' operating rates are low. Downstream replenishment enthusiasm at low prices has increased, but high inventory pressures the market [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,580 - 1,630 in the short term [5]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of October 17, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 70 [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Warehouse Receipt Trend**: As of October 17, there were 6,294 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 723 from last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of October 16, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,560 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu it was 1,560 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of October 16, the FOB China price of urea was 385 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - **Basis Trend**: As of October 16, the urea basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of October 15, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 16, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.93 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.32 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of October 16, China's urea production was 132.05 million tons, down 6.97 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, down 4.25% from the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [41]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 44.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.1 million tons, a growth rate of 7.47%. As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 million tons, an increase of 17.15 million tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 11.88% [44]. - **Export Situation**: In August 2025, China's urea export volume was 79.67 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.46% and a year - on - year increase of 3,024.31%. From January to August 2025, China's total urea exports were 144.11 million tons, an increase of 119.66 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 489.41% [47]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Operating Rates**: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points week - on - week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29 percentage points from last week [52].