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大越期货尿素早报-20250717
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. International urea prices are strong, but the domestic market still has a significant oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations [4]. - The main logic of the market is the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand, with the main risk point being changes in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Recently, the urea futures market has been volatile. International geopolitical fluctuations have led to a tight supply of urea, and the Indian tender price is expected to rise further, making international urea prices strong. Domestically, the operating rate has declined but remains high, and overall inventory is still high. In terms of demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has been continuously declining, and the operating rate of melamine has also decreased. Agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The domestic urea market still has a significant oversupply, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the deliverable is 1830 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 979, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong [5]. - **Negative Factors**: High daily production from high - level operations and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the deliverable is 1830 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1830 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1830 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2582 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | UR09 contract price is 1733 (+2), UR01 is 1710 (+3), UR05 is 1727 (+4), and the basis of the UR09 contract is 97 (-2) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 2630 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.24 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 1.035 million tons, and UR port inventory is 205,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing. For example, in 2018, it was 2245.5, and in 2025E, it is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% compared to 2024. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes over the years [10].
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250716
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 09:32
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The domestic daily urea production has increased due to the resumption of previously overhauled plants, and the short - term urea operating rate may remain high because of substantial production profits [2]. - The country is gradually entering the off - season of agricultural demand, with only a small amount of demand for top - dressing in some local areas. The compound fertilizer enterprises have good pre - sales for the autumn season, leading to an increase in their operating rate and procurement; the melamine operating rate has rebounded, but weak downstream demand may restrict its further increase [2]. - Recent urea export orders are still being executed, and the inventory of some urea enterprises is decreasing rapidly. Although local inventories vary, the overall inventory is mainly decreasing. However, the current urea enterprise inventory is much higher than the same period in previous years. As the increase in agricultural demand decreases and the execution of previous export orders enters the later stage, the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down [2]. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1720 - 1770 yuan/ton [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1733 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is 23 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 197,633 lots, a decrease of 3,755 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 20,853, an increase of 3,554 [2]. - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts is 2,630, unchanged [2]. 2. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have all decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 57 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged at 427.5 dollars/ton and 410 dollars/ton respectively [2]. 3. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 48.9 million tons, an increase of 4.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 96.77 million tons, a decrease of 5.08 million tons [2]. - The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.94%; the daily urea production is 197,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 0, unchanged; the monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, a decrease of 261,890 tons [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 29.83%, an increase of 0.58%; the melamine operating rate is 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with purchased urea is - 646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 216 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 billion tons, a decrease of 640,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. 5. Industry News - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons from last week, a 7.46% decrease [2]. - As of July 10, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 489,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from last week, an 11.14% increase [2]. - As of July 10, the Chinese urea output is 1.3818 million tons, an increase of 1.53 tons from last week, a 1.12% increase; the average daily output is 197,400 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.94% [2]. 6. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250715
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 09:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that due to the resumption of production in previously overhauled units, the daily output of domestic urea has increased, and the short - term urea operating rate may remain high. As the agricultural demand season is approaching, only local agricultural top - dressing has a small amount of demand. The autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizer enterprises are good, leading to an increase in the operating rate and procurement. The operating rate of melamine has recovered, but weak downstream demand may limit its further increase. Recently, the shipment of urea factories varies significantly, and inventory changes are mixed. Last week, the overall inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, and some urea factories continued to execute previous export orders. However, this week, the industrial demand is expected to weaken further, the increase in agricultural demand is decreasing, and as the execution of previous export orders enters the later stage, the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down. The unexpectedly high urea tender price in India boosts the confidence of the domestic market. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the release time, quantity, and allocated enterprises of the second batch of urea export quotas. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1720 - 1750 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1731 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 201,388 lots, an increase of 3,396 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 24,407 lots, a decrease of 2,450 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 2,630, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1790, 1840, 1840, 1810, and 1850 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 20, 10, 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the Chinese main port were 427.5 and 410 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory was 48.9 tons (weekly), an increase of 4.9 tons; the enterprise inventory was 96.77 tons (weekly), a decrease of 5.08 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises was 85.26% (weekly), an increase of 0.94%; the daily output of urea was 197,400 tons (weekly), an increase of 2,200 tons [2]. - The export volume of urea was 0, unchanged; the monthly output of urea was 6,031,340 tons, a decrease of 261,890 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 29.83% (weekly), an increase of 0.58%; the operating rate of melamine was 62.56% (weekly), a decrease of 0.43% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer was 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine (using externally - purchased urea) was - 646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 216 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 416.82 tons, a decrease of 64.08 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons from the previous week, a 4.99% decrease [2]. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.94%, a 0.55% increase [2]. - As of July 10, the weekly output of Chinese urea was 138.18 tons, an increase of 1.53 tons from the previous week, a 1.12% increase; the average daily output was 19.74 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons [2]. 4. Suggested Focus The report suggests paying attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].
尿素周报:宏观及出口预期扰动较强-20250714
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 14:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a strong upward trend. Recently, urea enterprises had a mix of device maintenance and复产, and the supply was expected to decline in the short - term and then recover. On the demand side, there was an expected marginal weakening of agricultural top - dressing demand. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased slightly, and the start - up was expected to gradually recover from a low level after the second half of the month, with finished product inventory still in the process of de - stocking. Regarding exports, export expectations were frequently disturbed recently, and the domestic - foreign price difference remained high. The domestic urea port inventory had increased to 48.9 tons month - on - month. Overall, agricultural demand replenishment and export release drove the continuous de - stocking of urea enterprise inventory. Macro and export expectations strongly disturbed the futures market. In the short term, the urea futures price might continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The upper resistance level of the UR2509 contract was around 1,780 - 1,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Device maintenance and复产 coexisted, and supply was expected to decline in the short - term and then recover [4]. - **Demand**: Attention should be paid to the pre - sales and start - up of autumn fertilizers. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased slightly, and the start - up of melamine decreased [4][34]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory continued to increase, and the inventory pressure of urea enterprises eased. Urea enterprise inventory was 96.77 tons (month - on - month decrease of 5.08 tons), port inventory was 48.9 tons (month - on - month increase of 4.9 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (month - on - month increase of 10.82%) [4][31]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and urea profits increased month - on - month [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the 09 basis changed little [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price showed a strong upward trend this week [6]. - **International Urea Price**: International urea prices increased significantly [10]. - **Supply**: The weekly urea production was 138.18 tons (+1.12%), including 107.23 tons of coal - based urea production (+0.21%) and 30.95 tons of gas - based urea production (+4.42%), with an average daily output of 19.7 tons. Some enterprises had planned maintenance [16][20][24]. - **Inventory**: As mentioned above, port inventory increased and enterprise inventory decreased [27][31]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 29.83% (+0.58%), and the finished product inventory was 67.26 tons (month - on - month increase of 0.62 tons). The start - up rate of melamine was 62.56% (-0.22%) [34]. - **Raw Material End**: Coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend [36]. - **Profit**: The production profit of urea fixed - bed and water - coal slurry devices was analyzed, and the profit increased month - on - month [42][43]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the 09 basis changed little [45]. - **Urea - related Product Spread**: The spreads between urea and related products such as liquid ammonia and ammonium chloride were analyzed [54].
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250714
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 11:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term urea operating rate may remain high due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled units and relatively high production profits. The country is gradually entering the off - season of agricultural demand, with only a small amount of local agricultural top - dressing demand. The autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizer enterprises are good, leading to an increase in the operating rate and procurement. The melamine operating rate has rebounded, but weak downstream demand may limit its further increase. Recently, the shipment of urea factories has shown obvious differences, and inventory changes vary. The overall inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline last week, and some factories are still fulfilling previous export orders. However, this week, the industrial demand is expected to weaken further, the increase in agricultural demand is decreasing, and the execution of previous export orders is approaching the end, so the overall de - stocking speed of urea may slow down. The Indian urea tender price far exceeds market expectations, boosting domestic market confidence. Short - term attention should be paid to the release time, quantity, and allocated enterprises of the second batch of urea export quotas. The UR2509 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract is 1764 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 33 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position of the main contract is 197,992 lots, up 206 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,957; the exchange warehouse receipts are 2630 sheets, down 15 sheets [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Henan, it is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 1820 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Anhui, it is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main Zhengzhou urea contract is 56 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 427.5 dollars/ton, up 32.5 dollars; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 410 dollars/ton, up 27.5 dollars [2] Industrial Situation - Port inventory is 48.9 million tons, up 4.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 96.77 million tons, down 5.08 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.26%, up 0.94 percentage points; the daily urea output is 197,400 tons, up 2200 tons. The urea export volume is 0. The monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 29.83%, up 0.58 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 62.56%, down 0.43 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 134 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 646 yuan/ton, down 216 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 billion tons, down 640,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,000 tons, down 300 tons [2] Industry News - As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 96.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.08 million tons or 4.99%. As of July 10, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points. As of July 10, China's urea output was 1.3818 billion tons, an increase of 1530 tons or 1.12% from the previous week, with an average daily output of 197,400 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 percentage points [2] Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]
大越期货尿素早报-20250714
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 03:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. International urea prices are strong, but the domestic market still has a significant oversupply, and export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently. International supply is tight due to geopolitical factors, and Indian tender prices are expected to rise further, leading to strong international urea prices. Domestically, the operating rate has declined but remains high, and overall inventory is still high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have continued to decline, and agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The domestic urea market still has a clear oversupply, and export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 67, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.186 million tons (+65,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high daily production at the operating rate and weak domestic demand. The main logic is the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (-10), Shandong spot is 1850 (-20), Henan spot is 1840 (0), and FOB China is 2581 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 09 contract is 1773 (0), UR01 is 1734 (0), and UR05 is 1738 (0). The basis of the UR09 contract is 67 (-10) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in production capacity, with growth rates ranging from 8.9% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown various trends. For example, in 2024, production capacity reached 44.185 million tons with a growth rate of 13.5%, production was 34.25 million tons, net imports were 3.6 million tons, and apparent consumption was 37.85 million tons [10].
瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250711
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 09:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated upwards. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong rose to 1810 - 1850 yuan/ton, with the average price up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. The short - term output may stabilize as previously shut - down plants resume production. Agricultural demand continues to advance, and the compound fertilizer plant operating rate may slowly recover in the middle and late ten - days. However, next week, industrial demand is expected to weaken, agricultural demand growth will decrease, and the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down [6]. - For the UR2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1750 - 1800 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market fluctuated upwards this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong rose to 1810 - 1850 yuan/ton, with the average price up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic urea daily output has increased, and short - term output may stabilize. Agricultural demand continues to advance, and the compound fertilizer plant operating rate may slowly recover. But next week, industrial demand is expected to weaken, agricultural demand growth will decrease, and the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: UR2509 contract short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1750 - 1800 [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.19% [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of July 11, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 39 [13]. - **Position Analysis**: As of July 10, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 2,645, an increase of 2,145 from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of July 10, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,860 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [27]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of July 10, the FOB China price of urea was 382.5 dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - **Basis Trend**: As of July 10, the urea basis was 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of July 9, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 660 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week; as of July 10, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.37 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.4 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of July 10, China's urea output was 1.3818 million tons, an increase of 15,300 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.12%; the average daily output was 197,400 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week [41]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 489,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.14%; as of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 967,700 tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.99% [44]. - **Export**: In May 2025, urea exports were 2,436.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%; the average export price was 209.07 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.54% [47]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - As of July 10, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 29.83%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 62.56%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from last week [50].
尿素:震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 01:33
Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the urea industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, urea shows a state of small - scale price increases dominated by speculation. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in early July, with a decline in supply due to centralized maintenance and a decrease in daily production. On the demand side, traders are picking up goods for export, and short - term inventory accumulation is unlikely. However, as domestic agricultural demand nears its end, fundamental pressure is increasing, which restricts the upside of prices. The daily price fluctuations depend on the continuation of spot trading activity and the macro - level drive from the warming of the macro - sentiment in the commodity market [3][4] Summary by Directory Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,777 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,777 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the trading volume was 253,398 lots, an increase from the previous day; the open interest was 208,229 lots, a decrease of 2,957 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 2,645 tons, an increase of 400 tons; the trading value was 900.403 million yuan, an increase of 311.459 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was 83 yuan, up 13 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 57 yuan, up 33 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 23 yuan, down 7 yuan; the spread between UR09 and UR01 was 44 yuan, up 10 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea producers changed. Henan Xinlianxin's price was 1,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Shanxi Fengxi's was 1,720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Jiangsu Linggu's was 1,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions also increased by 20 yuan to 1,860 yuan/ton and 1,720 yuan/ton respectively. The industry's operating rate was 84.99%, up 0.86 percentage points, and the daily output was 196,760 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons [2] Industry News - On July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 967,700 tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons from the previous week, a 4.99% decrease. The inventory of some enterprises increased in Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, while it decreased in Anhui, Hainan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing [3]
大越期货尿素早报-20250709
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 02:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today. The international urea price is strong, but the domestic market still has a significant oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been fluctuating. International supply is tight due to geopolitical factors, and the Indian tender price is expected to rise further, leading to a strong international urea price. Domestically, the operating rate has declined slightly but remains high, and inventory has fluctuated slightly. Industrial demand, including compound fertilizer and melamine production, has decreased, and agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The overall domestic urea market is in oversupply, and the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 87, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.7%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 118.6 million tons (+6.5), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and low domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1850 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1870 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1850 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2583 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 09 contract is 1763 (+15), UR01 is 1723 (+11), and UR05 is 1727 (+11). The basis of the 09 contract is 87 (-15) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 118.6 million tons (+6.5), the UR factory inventory is 98.1 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 20.5 million tons. The number of warehouse receipts is 2607 (+1330) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown various trends. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, production was 3425, net imports were 360, and the apparent consumption was 3785. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [10].
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250708
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 08:51
| | | 尿素产业日报 2025-07-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1763 | 15 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 40 | 4 849 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 214386 | 1128 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -22144 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2607 | 1330 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1780 | -10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1810 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1820 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 57 | -15 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 395 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 382.5 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周 ...