Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. The supply will increase as maintenance work is completed and new production capacities come online, while the demand is moderate, and the export situation is weakening. The high inventory and futures warehouse receipts also put pressure on the price [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply is increasing as new maintenance and capacity increase co - exist. The demand from the alumina sector is stable but affected by environmental control, and non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. However, the potential new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,638 yuan/ton (-32), with an East China basis of -58 yuan/ton (+12) and a South China basis of -8 yuan/ton (+2) [1]. - Spot price: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,580 yuan/ton (-20), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,630 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 740 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -763 yuan/ton (-40), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -545 yuan/ton (+16), and the PVC export profit is 1.6 US dollars/ton (+1.1) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: PVC factory inventory is 33.8 tons (+0.4), social inventory is 54.5 tons (-1.0), the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 76.47% (+4.82%), the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.50% (-0.06%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.09% (+3.35%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.4 tons (+13.9) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,303 yuan/ton (-33), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 197 yuan/ton (+33) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 806.6 yuan/ton (+80.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 103.78 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 979.23 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.26 tons (+2.83), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.73 tons (+0.28), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.30% (+3.50%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 85.86% (-0.41%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 68.06% (+0.75%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.66% (+1.05%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply: Maintenance work has been completed this week, and new production capacities are gradually reaching full production. The supply is expected to be abundant [3]. - Demand: The downstream operation rate has increased, but the purchasing sentiment is average. Exports are relying on price cuts, and the export orders are weakening [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute inventory level is high. The high - level futures warehouse receipts also put pressure on the price [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply: New maintenance and capacity increase co - exist, and the operation rate is rising. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Orders from alumina in Shandong are stable, but the operation rate of alumina in Hebei has decreased slightly due to environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased slightly [3]. Strategy - **PVC** - Single - side trading: Fluctuate in a wide range. Consider positive arbitrage between futures and spot [4]. - Inter - period trading: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy [4]. - **Caustic Soda** - Single - side trading: Fluctuate within a range [5]. - Inter - period trading: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy [5].

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities showed a stable performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with a notable increase in transaction volume in September, followed by a return to a steady trend in October [1][4][5] - The "Fifteen Five" planning proposal released on October 28 emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, which is expected to positively influence market expectations for short-term policy optimization [1][8] Market Performance - In October, Shanghai recorded new home transactions of 11,102 units and second-hand home transactions of 18,483 units, maintaining its position as the best-performing city [1] - The overall transaction volume in major cities during the "Golden September and Silver October" period was not low, with a significant increase in the proportion of improvement demand [5][6] - The sales total for the top 100 real estate companies in October increased by 3.7% month-on-month [6] Price Trends - New home prices in September and October saw slight increases of 0.09% and 0.28% respectively, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.74% and 0.84% [6] - Structural price increases were driven by the strong demand for quality improvement projects in urban areas [6] Policy and Promotional Activities - Various cities launched promotional activities and policy optimizations to stimulate housing consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2][3] - Developers and intermediaries offered discounts and commission incentives, contributing to increased market transactions [4] Year-End Strategies - As the year-end approaches, many developers are planning new promotional measures to boost sales and cash flow [1][6] - Internal meetings among real estate companies have emphasized the importance of achieving sales targets in the final two months of the year, with terms like "sprint" and "attack" frequently mentioned [6][7] Future Outlook - The "Fifteen Five" planning proposal indicates a strategic focus on improving living standards and enhancing the real estate sector, suggesting potential policy relaxations in areas such as housing purchase restrictions and cross-regional use of housing funds [8] - Analysts expect continued support for new home sales from increased supply in core cities, while second-hand home transactions are likely to show moderate recovery [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate industry is undergoing a profound value transformation from scale expansion to quality enhancement during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on high-quality development as a core strategy for improving people's livelihoods and promoting common prosperity [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The core positioning of the real estate industry is shifting from economic attributes to a focus on people's livelihoods, marking a fundamental change in development logic [2]. - The average urban housing area per person in China has exceeded 40 square meters, indicating the end of the housing shortage era, with nearly 7.6 billion square meters of unsold commercial housing as of September 2025 [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart "good houses," which is now a national strategy [2]. Group 2: Policy and Standards - The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes a dual-track strategy of optimizing the supply of affordable housing and increasing the supply of improved housing based on local conditions, shifting the policy focus from quantity to quality [5]. - The implementation of various standards, such as the "Residential Project Specifications," includes over 40 indicators, some of which are mandatory, to promote the construction of "good houses" [2][3]. Group 3: Technological Contributions - Companies like Oriental Yuhong are actively participating in the development of standards and providing diverse solutions for the construction of "good houses," focusing on low-carbon technology and environmentally friendly products [3][4]. - Oriental Yuhong has achieved significant results in innovation, including obtaining the first domestic "green building material certification" and various international certifications [3]. Group 4: Community Development - The construction of good communities is also a focus, with innovative drainage systems like the "Yuhong Peach Blossom Source" being implemented to enhance the quality of housing projects [6]. - Successful case studies demonstrate the industry's commitment to optimizing design and construction processes to meet the evolving needs of residents [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The real estate sector is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for facilitating economic circulation. The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized promoting high-quality development in real estate, indicating potential policy support [4][48] - There is an anticipated wave of development for high-quality housing due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure, with a focus on core cities and strong land acquisition capabilities [4][48] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.5%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) fell by 0.7% during the week [4][7] - In the new housing market, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 2.43 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 4.8%, but a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% [14][18] - For the month of October, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 8.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [18][19] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of October 25-31, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.43 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% [14] - For October, new housing transactions totaled 8.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of October 25-31, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.05 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6% [30] - For October, second-hand housing transactions totaled 7.32 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2% [33] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is promoting a system of selling existing homes to mitigate delivery risks. Additionally, five departments issued a plan to support qualified commercial real estate projects in issuing Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) [45] - Guangzhou has released guidelines for constructing quality housing, emphasizing green construction and energy-efficient appliances [45] - Policy adjustments in housing provident funds have been made, including increasing the maximum ratio of monthly repayments to family income from 55% to 60% in Hainan [45] Company Announcements - In Q3 2025, several companies reported their net profits, with notable figures including China Vanke at -16.07 billion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 98.6%) and China Merchants Shekou at 1.05 billion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%) [48][50] - Financing activities include a loan agreement where Shenzhen Metro Group will provide up to 22 billion yuan to China Vanke [48][50]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government signals a strong commitment to promoting high-quality development in the real estate market over the next five years, emphasizing its role in improving people's livelihoods and driving economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Development - The real estate sector still has demand and development potential, with its value added to GDP at 6.3% in 2024, compared to over 10% in some developed countries [3][4]. - The focus will shift from investment-driven growth to exploring new growth areas in leasing, operations, and services within the real estate sector [3][4]. Group 2: Housing Supply System - A dual supply system will be established, consisting of a clear and complementary structure of guaranteed and market housing, optimizing the supply of affordable housing for urban workers and low-income families [4][6]. Group 3: Reforming Real Estate Practices - The industry will undergo reforms to address existing issues, including strict regulations on fund management for real estate projects and promoting the sale of existing homes to mitigate delivery risks [6][7]. Group 4: Quality and Safety Enhancements - The government aims to implement housing quality improvement projects and enhance property service quality, focusing on both the physical aspects of housing and ongoing maintenance [9][10]. - A comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing will be established, including housing inspections, insurance, and pension systems [10].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strong signal from the Chinese government to promote high-quality development in the real estate market over the next five years, aiming to improve people's livelihoods and drive economic growth [1][3] - The focus on real estate is shifting towards meeting the needs of the populace, with an emphasis on quality housing that aligns with the aspirations of citizens for better living conditions [1][2] Group 1: Real Estate Development Strategy - The government plans to enhance the housing supply system, creating a clear and complementary structure between guaranteed and market housing, optimizing supply for low-income groups and increasing the supply of improved housing [1][2] - There is a need to reform and improve the real estate development, financing, and sales systems to address existing issues in the industry, promoting a new model for high-quality development [2] - A mechanism linking "people, housing, land, and finance" will be established to ensure a balanced and reasonable market supply and demand, focusing on both quantity and quality of housing [2] Group 2: Quality and Safety in Housing - The initiative includes implementing housing quality improvement projects and enhancing property service quality, indicating a focus on both the physical aspects of housing and its operational maintenance [2] - A comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing will be established, which includes housing inspections, pension plans, and insurance to ensure residential safety [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to enhance the housing supply system and promote high-quality development in the real estate sector over the next five years, emphasizing the importance of housing for improving people's livelihoods and driving economic growth [1][5]. Group 1: Housing Supply System - The government will establish a dual supply system consisting of both guaranteed and market-oriented housing, optimizing the supply of affordable housing for urban workers and families in need while increasing the supply of improved housing based on local conditions [3]. - A "people, housing, land, and money" linkage mechanism will be established to balance market supply and demand, focusing on both the quantity and quality of housing supply [3]. Group 2: Reform of Real Estate Development - The government plans to reform and improve the real estate development, financing, and sales systems to address existing issues in the industry, promoting a new model for high-quality development [3]. - Strict regulations will be enforced to prevent investors from misappropriating funds related to project sales and financing, ensuring that financing needs are met through designated banks [3]. Group 3: Quality and Safety of Housing - The initiative includes implementing housing quality improvement projects and enhancing property service quality, indicating a focus on both the physical aspects of housing and its operational maintenance [4]. - A comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing will be established, including housing inspections, insurance, and pension systems to ensure residential safety [4]. Group 4: Future Potential of Real Estate - The real estate sector still has significant potential, with the industry's value added to GDP projected at 6.3% in 2024, compared to higher percentages in developed countries, suggesting opportunities in rental, operation, and service sectors for new growth [2].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The sales of the top 100 real estate companies in October showed a significant year-on-year decline of 39.8%, indicating a weakening market [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted to emphasize "high-quality development" in real estate, focusing on improving systems, optimizing supply, and enhancing quality [5] - New housing transaction area has turned positive on a month-on-month basis but shows a year-on-year decline, with inventory levels decreasing [4][15] Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of October 25-31, 2025, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 25,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 5.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.0% [17] - The new housing transaction area was 2.64 million square meters, up 3.1% month-on-month but down 37.3% year-on-year [26] - Inventory levels in 12 cities decreased by 0.6% month-on-month and 12.2% year-on-year, with a de-stocking cycle of 18.8 months [41] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land area transacted across 100 cities was 2.035 billion square meters, a month-on-month increase of 79.6% and a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [62] - The total land transaction price was 50.1 billion yuan, up 160.8% month-on-month but down 20.5% year-on-year [68] - The average land price per square meter was 2,461.5 yuan, up 45.3% month-on-month but down 32.7% year-on-year [64] 3. Policy Overview - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on improving basic systems for property development, financing, and sales [5] - Local governments are implementing measures such as electronic consumption vouchers for homebuyers and mandating the use of green building materials [95][96] 4. Company Performance - The top 20 real estate companies showed varied performance, with Greenland and China Railway achieving positive sales growth of 67% and 61% respectively in October [4] - The overall absolute return for the real estate sector was -0.7%, indicating a decline compared to previous weeks [13]

Group 1: Key Insights on Selected Stocks - The report highlights a selection of stocks for November, including China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers (600428.SH), and Ningde Times (300750.SZ) among others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these companies [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - In September, the Federal Reserve initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, leading to fluctuations in the US dollar index and mixed movements in the domestic and foreign exchange rates of the Renminbi. The actual effective exchange rate index of the Renminbi has rebounded for three consecutive months, impacting the financial conditions of export enterprises [2][4]. - The report notes that the cross-border capital flow maintained a balanced state, with a slight shift from net inflow to net outflow, primarily driven by securities investments. Foreign capital has slowed its reduction of Renminbi-denominated bonds while increasing its holdings in Renminbi stocks, indicating a cautiously optimistic attitude towards A-shares [4]. Group 3: Real Estate Sector Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, shifting from the previous "housing is for living, not for speculation" stance to a focus on improving systems, optimizing supply, and enhancing quality. This reflects the central government's increased attention to real estate as a matter of public welfare [6][15]. - The plan outlines five key directions for promoting high-quality development in real estate, including constructing a new development model, optimizing the supply of affordable housing, increasing the supply of improved housing, building "good houses," and establishing a safety management system for houses throughout their lifecycle [7][10][11][12][13]. Group 4: Power Equipment Sector Insights - The report on Dajin Heavy Industry indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 4.595 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 99.25%, with a net profit of 0.887 billion yuan, up 214.63% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 1.754 billion yuan, marking an 84.64% increase [17][18]. - The company has significantly increased its export revenue, which now accounts for nearly 80% of its total income, benefiting from high-margin offshore products. The gross profit margin reached 31.12%, and the net profit margin was 19.31%, reflecting a strong improvement in profitability [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" emphasizes the importance of enhancing people's livelihoods and promoting common prosperity in the real estate sector, indicating a shift back to the residential property nature of housing [2] Group 1: High-Quality Development - High-quality development in real estate requires foundational institutional reforms, including the establishment of independent legal entities for project development, ensuring that projects operate independently and are accountable for land acquisition, development, and delivery [2] - The introduction of a lead bank system is proposed, where a designated bank or syndicate oversees project financing and ensures that funds are used appropriately, thus aligning incentives for financial institutions and project developers [2] Group 2: Current Housing Sales and Supply System - The government is actively promoting a current housing sales system, with projections indicating that by 2024, 30.8% of national housing sales will be current sales, which fundamentally mitigates delivery risks [3] - There is a growing demand for various forms of housing security, particularly among new citizens, young people, and migrants, due to changes in income and employment, necessitating an expansion of housing security programs [3] Group 3: Market Strategy and Housing Quality - The "Suggestions" advocate for a city-specific approach to increasing the supply of improved housing, emphasizing the need for tailored strategies based on local supply and demand dynamics [4] - The focus on constructing "good houses" is highlighted, with new standards established for safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence, aiming to enhance the quality of housing supply [4] Group 4: Lifecycle Management and Community Services - The emphasis on improving the quality of property management and maintenance is crucial, with initiatives proposed for enhancing housing quality and establishing a comprehensive lifecycle safety management system [5] - The lifecycle management system includes housing inspections, insurance mechanisms, and maintenance funds to ensure long-term safety and functionality of properties [5] Group 5: Economic Integration and Demand-Supply Dynamics - The transition to high-quality development in the real estate sector is seen as a means to support domestic demand strategies, integrating housing as a key component of infrastructure investment [6] - The approach aims to create a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment, enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of domestic economic circulation [6]