Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the defense industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The intensification of the India-Pakistan conflict has drawn significant attention to the military industry, with defense stocks rising by 3.70% on May 7, 2025, marking the highest increase among 31 sectors [1][6]. - The report highlights that geopolitical events can have a short-term impact on military stock performance, influenced by the relevance of the event to China, market risk appetite, and the duration of the event [2][6]. - In the medium to long term, the India-Pakistan conflict is expected to strengthen global military trade logic, with China being a key supplier to Pakistan, which has a high dependency on Chinese military imports [7][8]. Summary by Sections Short-term Impact of the India-Pakistan Conflict - The conflict is likely to provide ongoing support for military stock performance due to its proximity to China and the heightened geopolitical tensions [6][7]. - The market's risk appetite has been somewhat restored following recent financial policy adjustments, which may further bolster military stocks [6]. Medium to Long-term Impact on Military Trade - Pakistan is a significant importer of Chinese military products, with 63.02% of China's military exports going to Pakistan from 2020 to 2024, and 81.15% of Pakistan's military imports coming from China [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the military trade market will continue to grow, driven by China's competitive advantages and the evolving global security landscape [17][25]. Investment Trends and Directions - The military industry is expected to remain in a favorable cycle, with a focus on unmanned equipment, military intelligence, satellite internet, and electronic countermeasures as key investment opportunities [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of military trade in the context of the "Belt and Road" initiative, suggesting that it will serve as a new growth driver for China's military industry [25][30]. Global Military Trade Development - The global military trade market is projected to maintain a high level of activity, with increased military spending across various nations due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts [20][21]. - China's military exports are expected to shift from a recovery phase to a supply-demand resonance-driven growth phase by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [30][32]. Military Product Focus - The report indicates that military products will continue to concentrate on aviation, aerospace, and new domain weaponry, reflecting China's growing capabilities in these areas [49][50].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 达邵炜 (8621)23297818× dasw@swsresearch.com 国防军工 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 2025 年 04 月 27 日 季报利空逐渐出尽，订单有望持续 兑现 看好 —— 国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 18 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 0.15%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 0.38%，同期上证综指上 涨 0.56%，沪深 300 上涨 0.38%，创业板指上涨 1.74%，申万国防军工指数跑输创 业板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上 周国防军工板块 0.15%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 22 位。2、从我们构 建的 ...

据新华网报道，2 0 2 5年我国国防预算约1 7 8 4 7亿元，同比+7 . 2%，自2 0 2 3年以来增幅连续三年持 平。2 0 2 5年《政府工作报告》强调抓好"十四五"规划收官，随着行业修复，军工板块整体将得到 估值修复；提出因地制宜发展新质生产力，我们认为相关产业将在政策的持续支持下快速发展。随 着行业修复，军工板块整体将望获得估值修复，其中部分领域或个股有望率先开启底部复苏，进 而"从一个企业，扩散到一个型号再扩散到一个领域"。推荐导弹、特种机器人、新材料新工艺、两 机，以及低空经济、商业航天。 ▍ 国防预算连续三年同比+7 . 2%，占GDP比例较低仍有提升空间。 据新华网报道，2 0 2 5年我国国防预算约1 7 8 4 7亿元，同比+7 . 2%，自2 0 2 3年以来增幅连续三年持 平。我国2 0 2 2 - 2 0 2 4年国防预算分别同比+7 . 1%/ 7 . 2%/ 7 . 2%，军费同比增速连续3年保持7%以 上。据政府工作报告，2 0 2 5年GDP增速目标为5%左右，国防开支总体上与国家经济发展水平相 协调，7 . 2%的国防预算增速保持适度增长。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩3 ...