黄金昨天猛涨50美金，延续上周的涨势，不改加速冲刺走势。今天续涨，再破高，涨破3500，涨幅达到 了70美金，回落看调整。 今天的走势 昨天快涨，破高回落调整后。 今天延续涨势，多头不停。 直接闯关3500，一举涨到了3508。 上方再次反弹，上方再战3508，破高不猜顶。 当然了，加速阶段，随时迎来大幅回调。 下方再次回调，跌破了3470的位置，继续看向3436的支撑。 黄金4个月连涨，刷新历史新高后。到8月收官，经历了4个月横盘，围绕3300关口高位调整后，再次上 破，多头强势归来。本月再创历史新高后，强势不改，上不猜顶。同时，多头加速阶段，随时谨防大幅 回调，可看3400的位置。 操作方面，黄金强势不改，多头接连破高，继续看反弹的机会，关注3470和3436做多的机会。此外，黄 金冲高回落，短期内看承压调整，关注3508做空的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美通胀不改，但劳动力市场却意外下滑，昨天再次大幅下修，就业市场着实出现了问题。多个 数据表现，把压力给到了美联储，降息的预期不断升温，9月或正式开启降息大门，黄金迎来大幅反 弹。 冲高回落，看调整。 下方先看3470的位置，看此位置反弹的机会。 同时 ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds are betting that the Japanese yen will break out of its recent narrow trading range against the US dollar, potentially leading to an appreciation of the yen [1] - Leveraged investors are establishing positions in the options market, anticipating that if the yen breaks above the current range of approximately 147 yen per dollar and surpasses the 145 level, these positions will become profitable [1] - Factors that may drive the yen stronger against the dollar include political turmoil in France and weak US non-farm payroll data, which could increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - On August 26, the trading volume of put options for USD/JPY reached four times that of call options following the dispute between Trump and Cook, as well as France's announcement of a no-confidence vote [2] - The most actively traded put option on that day had a strike price of 144.93, meaning that if the currency pair falls below this price, the value of the put option will increase [2] - Market sentiment has shifted towards bearish positions on USD/JPY, particularly in the 1 to 2-month maturity range, with strategies including digital options and direct put options [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's core CPI in Tokyo recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.5% in August, marking the slowest growth since March of this year, indicating a temporary slowdown in inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Tokyo inflation data is seen as a leading indicator for national price trends, suggesting that it is unlikely to divert the Bank of Japan from its current interest rate hike path [1] - Recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and strong signals of economic and price growth in Japan have heightened market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year [1] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Economist Taro Kimura stated that the report will bolster the Bank of Japan's confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target, supported by the stickiness of food prices and steady wage growth leading to increased labor costs [1]

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Mitsubishi Corporation from 9.74% to 10.23%, triggering disclosure requirements under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act [1] - Following the announcement, Mitsubishi Corporation's stock price rose nearly 3%, contributing to an overall increase in the Japanese stock market [1] - Berkshire Hathaway's total investment in the five major Japanese trading companies has reached $23.5 billion, with an average annual return of 15.3% since the initial investment [3] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 7%, recently surpassing 42,800 points, approaching its historical high of 43,876 points [4] - Japan's economy expanded at a faster-than-expected pace, with a second-quarter GDP growth rate of 1.0%, leading to expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [5] - A survey indicated that nearly two-thirds of economists believe the Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year [5] Group 3 - Despite pressures for rate hikes due to inflation exceeding 2% for over three years, the Bank of Japan has maintained a cautious approach, partly due to concerns over U.S. tariffs impacting Japan's economic growth [6] - A recent survey showed that 92% of economists expect no rate adjustment in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, but 63% anticipate a rate increase in the next quarter [6]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's economy remains significant, despite a recent trade agreement that reduced tariffs from 25% to 15% [2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff reduction is seen as insufficient to eliminate the uncertainties affecting Japan's economy, as highlighted by Bank of Japan's committee member Nakagawa Junko [2]. - Japan's economy is heavily export-oriented, making it particularly vulnerable to U.S. tariff policies, which have created a challenging economic environment [4]. - Japan's total exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline since February 2021, with exports decreasing for four consecutive months [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue evaluating economic data carefully before making any monetary policy decisions, reflecting the ongoing uncertainties [2]. - Despite the current economic challenges, the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5% in July while raising inflation forecasts, which has somewhat boosted market confidence regarding potential rate hikes later this year [4]. - Analysts predict that nearly two-thirds expect the Bank of Japan to raise the benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year, indicating a shift in market expectations [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Japanese yen is experiencing limited upward momentum despite a short-term rebound, as the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda has signaled that conditions for interest rate hikes are gradually forming, increasing market expectations for tighter monetary policy in Japan [1] - Japan's core CPI for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%, despite showing signs of cooling for the second consecutive month, reinforcing expectations for potential interest rate hikes in the coming months [1][1] - The optimistic signals from the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda suggest that wage growth is spreading from large enterprises to small and medium-sized enterprises, likely accelerating due to a tightening labor market [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently positioned in the lower-middle range of recent fluctuations, with the dollar index reported at 97.88 [2] - Key resistance for the USD/JPY exchange rate is observed at the 148.40 level, while important support levels are noted at 146.83 and 146.43 [2] - Technical indicators suggest that short-term momentum may weaken, but the overall trend requires observation to determine if key support or resistance levels can be effectively broken [3]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has rebounded from a low of 146.58 to trade between 146.80 and 147.52, currently at 147.4200, reflecting a 0.33% increase [1] - Japan's inflation data for July slightly exceeded expectations, with the national CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year, leading to speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as early as October [1] - Economists increasingly support a 25 basis point rate hike by the BOJ in Q4, with October seen as the most likely time for policy tightening, driven by strong GDP growth and a renewed trade agreement with the US [1] Group 2 - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that a tight labor market will continue to exert upward pressure on wages, suggesting that stable inflation is imminent [2] - Ueda's comments may fuel speculation about another rate hike this year, although he did not directly address monetary policy during his speech [2] - The BOJ has identified labor shortages as a key factor driving inflation through wage growth [2] Group 3 - The USD is experiencing a slow upward correction, with the USD/JPY gradually adjusting to the mid-range [3] - Short-term pressure levels are near the mid-axis around 147.9, with technical indicators showing a bearish trend despite a strong rebound [3] - The overall market is currently in a consolidation phase within the range of 146 to 149.5, with key resistance at 147.7 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday may provide more downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate, indicating a potential for further weakening of the dollar in the short term [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Powell's comments have increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the September meeting [1] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a more dovish stance from the Fed, which could lead to a weaker dollar [1] Group 2: Currency Exchange and Trading Strategy - Nomura's global market research team expresses increased confidence in their short position on USD/JPY, targeting a level of 142.00 yen per dollar by the end of October [1] - Recent discussions among Bank of Japan officials, including member Nakagawa Junko, regarding the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year are also a focal point [1]

周二（8月19日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元下跌，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时间11:27分，美元兑日 元报价147.76，下跌0.07%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.86。日本执政党重量级人物斋藤健表 示，在美国加征关税背景下，日本央行加息需保持谨慎。 他指出若央行行动导致经济降温将引发混乱，此番表态针对市场对日本央行年内加息的预期。该言论显 示日本央行若恢复加息可能面临政治压力，因美国关税将削弱企业利润和加薪能力。曾任经济产业大臣 的斋藤健被部分分析人士视为未来首相潜在人选。他强调日本正处于摆脱30年低增长低通胀的关键期， 货币政策正常化需格外谨慎。美国关税上升可能损害日本汽车制造商利润及其加薪能力。斋藤健认为央 行应与政府密切合作支撑经济，而非过度担忧通胀。 美元兑日元正处于自8月5日低点开启的修正通道内，目前该低点位于147.05。若成功突破这一水平，将 凸显出一个看跌旗形形态，而若跌破8月7日和8日低点146.75，则该形态将得到确认。进一步下行方 面，下一个看跌目标位是7月25日低点145.85。看跌旗形的测算目标位为7月上涨波段的78.6%斐波那契 回撤位144.50。上行方面，即时阻力位为 ...

Group 1 - French Agricultural Credit Bank analysts indicate that Japan's corporate capital expenditure is expected to become cautious due to U.S. tariffs and concerns over global economic slowdown, potentially leading to a quarter-on-quarter contraction in Japan's economy in Q3 2025 [2] - Barclays Bank reports a surge in European high-yield bond issuance driven by refinancing needs and increased dividend payments, with issuance surpassing €80 billion since 2025, marking the second-highest level for the period [2] - ING analysts suggest that if geopolitical risks ease, the dollar may face downward pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand, while strong U.S. inflation data has led to a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, supporting the dollar [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe the Bank of England may maintain a cautious interest rate stance for the remainder of 2025, with expectations to pause rate cuts in September and December, providing key support for the pound [4]