日企信心逆势上扬 为央行加息"铺路" 金十数据7月1日讯，6月日本大型制造业企业信心小幅上升，显示出面对美国关税行动升级时的韧性， 并为日本央行未来几个月再次加息提供了支撑。经济学家木村太郎表示："美国关税对信心的有限冲击 可能表明，在日元疲软的支撑下，企业利润仍在维持。与价格相关的指标可能显示长期通胀预期高于 2%。这将强化日本央行关于基础通胀正在接近其目标的观点，并增加7月加息的可能性。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's inflation has exceeded the target set by the Bank of Japan, indicating a likely interest rate hike in the near future [1] Inflation Data - The latest Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows that consumer inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, despite some easing in June [1] - The underlying inflation rate is projected to remain around 3% by the end of the year, which is higher than the Bank of Japan's previous forecasts [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in October, as the overall inflation indicators are still well above the central bank's May predictions [1] - The potential for a tightening cycle is supported by the persistent inflationary pressures observed in the economy [1]

日本央行审议委员田村直树：不认为0.5%的利率水平是日本央行加息的障碍。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest PMI data supports the view that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as October, contrary to expectations of a delay until early next year [1] Group 1: PMI Data Insights - Japan's composite PMI rose to 51.4, marking a four-month high [1] - Both manufacturing and services PMIs showed slight increases in June [1] - The manufacturing output index indicates a re-acceleration in industrial production, while new export orders suggest moderate sales growth [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The services PMI is significantly above historical averages, aligning with substantial growth in consumer spending [1] - Overall, there is a strong rationale for the Bank of Japan to consider an interest rate hike in October [1]

Group 1 - The former chief economist of the Bank of Japan, Seisaku Kameda, indicated that unless there is a dramatic positive turn in U.S. tariff issues, the Bank of Japan may delay interest rate hikes this year [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's May report downgraded inflation expectations, citing uncertainty in U.S. trade policy impacting the export-dependent economy, leading to a forecast of stagnant core inflation [1][2] - Japan's exports fell for the first time in eight years in May, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on companies like Toyota, which could further pressure Japan's fragile economic recovery [1] Group 2 - Kameda noted that the lack of progress in trade negotiations and insufficient data to assess tariff impacts means the Bank of Japan is unlikely to make significant adjustments to growth and inflation forecasts in the upcoming report [2] - The Bank of Japan's forecast for core consumer inflation is 2.2% until March 2026, slowing to 1.7% the following year, with the timing of the next interest rate hike dependent on corporate capital expenditure and wage increases [2] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates and decided to slow down the reduction of its balance sheet, reflecting a cautious policy stance due to escalating Middle East conflicts and U.S. tariffs [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Global Research suggests that it is time to buy medium-term Japanese government bonds due to recent price declines [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Bond market participants believe that the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates until as early as October 2025 [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policies continues to be emphasized by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Group 2: Diplomatic Context - The recent Japan-U.S. summit did not result in any agreements, indicating that the market may require more time to digest the potential for the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing stagnation in US-Japan trade negotiations and fluctuating tariff policies are creating dual constraints on the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The rise in Brent crude oil prices, surpassing $85 per barrel due to escalating Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts, poses significant cost pressures on Japan's economy, which relies on oil imports for over 90% of its needs [1] - The combined effects of energy-induced inflation and deteriorating trade conditions are reshaping the policy framework for the Bank of Japan [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy Expectations - There remains potential for a policy shift from the Bank of Japan within the year, despite the core CPI growth rate falling to 3.2% in April [3] - Continuous wage growth and persistent inflation in the service sector could serve as potential upward pressures on policy [3] - If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates after the September meeting, the narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan may compel the Bank of Japan to reassess the sustainability of its yield curve control policy [3] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Strategy - A structural appreciation trend for the yen requires overcoming three key resistances: narrowing US-Japan interest rate differentials, improvement in Japan's current account, and repatriation of overseas capital [3] - The current 10-year US-Japan government bond yield differential remains high at 180 basis points, with the annualized cost of holding yen at approximately 1.2%, making speculative long positions less attractive [3] - From a risk-hedging perspective, when the VIX index exceeds 25, the yen's hedging coefficient against the S&P 500 can reach 0.63, providing unique risk mitigation value for diversified asset portfolios [3] Group 4: Policy Dynamics - The pivotal point for policy will be the guidance from the Federal Reserve's dot plot in September [4] - If the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, the Bank of Japan may initiate a "preemptive rate hike" in October, accelerating the yen's appreciation process [4] - In the current volatile market environment, a gradual allocation strategy rather than a one-time investment may be a more effective response to policy uncertainties [4]

前日本央行委员政井贵子周四表示，美国前总统特朗普实施的关税政策可能已终结日本央行的加息周 期。由于出口预计将受到冲击，进一步加息的可能性正迅速消退。 现任智库SBI金融经济研究所主席的政井表示："如果经济遭受严重冲击，日本央行将被迫再次动用所有 可用工具。这就是政策制定的本质——即使这意味着继续扩大本已庞大的资产负债表。" 日本在关税谈判中难以与美国达成协议，给严重依赖对美汽车出口的经济蒙上阴影。5月1日，美国政策 的不确定性迫使日本央行下调增长预期，暗示尽管通胀持续上升，下次加息时点可能推迟。 虽然植田暗示将暂停加息，但他强调央行准备在借贷成本仍处低位的情况下继续推进加息。政井指出， 近期通胀主要由燃料和原材料成本推动，而随着全球需求减弱，这种压力可能缓解。 "日本经济的真正考验可能在2026年到来"，她指出，美国关税的影响将在未来6至12个月内开始显现。 在接受采访时她坦言："日本央行很可能在相当长的时间内无法加息。" 政井认为，根据美国与其他国家贸易谈判的进展，日本央行可能推迟今年乃至整个2026年的加息计划。 路透调查显示，多数分析师预计日本央行将推迟今年加息，略超半数认为下次加息要等到2026年初。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the slowdown in Japan's corporate goods and services price inflation is alleviating pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates [1][2] - In May, Japan's Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) year-on-year increased by 3.2%, the lowest level since September 2024, compared to an expected 3.5% and a revised previous value of 4.1% [1] - The month-on-month CGPI for May showed a decrease of 0.2%, against an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.2% [1] Group 2 - The decline in prices for steel products by 4.8%, chemical products by 3.1%, and non-ferrous metal products by 2.1% in May reflects a decrease in import costs due to the appreciation of the yen [1] - The import price index in yen terms fell by 10.3% year-on-year in May, following a 7.3% decline in April, indicating a significant reduction in raw material import costs [1] - Despite the overall price decline, food and beverage prices rose by 4.2% in May, up from 4.0% in April, suggesting that companies are still passing on higher costs to consumers [1] Group 3 - Economic analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan may face significant obstacles in raising interest rates this year due to various factors, including the impact of U.S. tariffs and domestic economic stimulus measures [2] - Japan's economy contracted in the first quarter, which may support the central bank's cautious stance, especially after lowering growth forecasts in the last meeting [2] - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated readiness to raise interest rates once the economy shows signs of recovery driven by steady wage increases [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities analysts, led by Kyohei Morita, believe that Japan's economy is unlikely to fall into recession despite potential economic slowdowns caused by U.S. tariffs [1] Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is primarily driven by the service sector, which is expected to benefit from new stimulus measures through supplementary budgets [1] - Corporate investments in software and efforts to address labor shortages are anticipated to support Japan's economic growth [1] Risks and Challenges - The analysts caution that tariffs may exert "downward pressure" on Japan's economy from July to September [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to begin raising interest rates in January 2026, as indicated by the central bank's governor, Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized readiness to continue rate hikes if the underlying inflation rate approaches the 2% target [1]