（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京10月13日电凯投宏观亚太区主管Marcel Thieliant表示，日本财政前景的不确定性以及疲软 的经济数据，可能促使日本央行将下一次加息时间从10月推迟至明年1月。 近期日本央行官员的言论也表明，他们在收紧政策上并不急迫，且正评估美国关税措施的全面影响。凯 投宏观指出，推迟加息可能令日元在较长时间内维持疲软，从而支撑东证指数。 他说，在高市早苗赢得自民党党魁选举、公明党退出执政联盟后，高市需要寻求其他政党的支持，这也 让反对派有了更多筹码，推动诸如相当于GDP 2.8%的减税等高成本措施。疲弱的制造业利润可能限制 明年的工资增长，而日本央行消费活动指数的大幅下滑则显示，食品价格上涨正拖累家庭支出。 ...

周五（10月10日）亚洲交易时段，美元/日元在触及2月13日以来新高153.2700后略有下降，不过下行空 间受限，最新美元兑日元汇率报152.7900，跌幅0.18%，日本10年期公债收益率周五触及逾17年高点， 因日元疲软提高了人们对日本央行将加息的押注。 10年期日本公债收益率上升1个基点至1.7%，为2008年7月以来最高。三井住友信托资产管理公司高级 策略师稻留克俊说，"日元疲软加剧了人们对日本央行可能提前加息的揣测。" 在自民党总裁选举中，财政鸽派人士高市早苗胜出，市场此前对日本央行可能推迟加息的押注出现逆 转。之所以出现这种逆转，是因为市场担心日元疲软可能会提振进口价格，从而加速通胀。 日本五年期公债收益率上升0.5个基点至1.24%，为2008年7月以来的最高水平。两年期日本公债收益率 持平于0.925%。20年期日本公债收益率下跌1个基点，至2.705%。30年期日本公债收益率持平于 3.175%。 前日本央行官员、曾参与过去外汇干预的Atsushi Takeuchi表示，如果日元急剧跌向160，日本可能会进 行干预，并警告过度贬值可能会迫使东京出手。 Takeuchi表示，到目前为止日元的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Capital Economics no longer expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this month due to a reassessment of market expectations following the election of Fumio Kishida as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The forecast for the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been postponed from October 2025 to January 2026, with an expected policy rate of 1.50% by the end of 2027, which is higher than current market expectations [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is cautious about raising interest rates, indicating that any policy action is unlikely to surprise the market [1] Group 2: Currency Forecasts - Capital Economics has adjusted its predictions for the Japanese yen, now expecting the USD/JPY exchange rate to close at 150 by the end of 2025, and to weaken to 140 and 135 by the end of 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - The overall pace of yen appreciation has been significantly delayed compared to previous forecasts of 140, 135, and 130 [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The yen currently appears "extremely weak," suggesting that a significant rise in Japanese government bond yields is not necessary to trigger a rebound [2] - There is skepticism that a sustained rebound in the yen will occur until the Bank of Japan resumes its rate hike path next year [2]

经济学家Taro Kimura指出："如果日本央行迟迟不加息，市场可能会开始质疑其独立性。在政治与央行 职能的微妙平衡中，日本央行继续维持紧缩政策的可能性仍然存在。" 分析人士指出，如果日本领导人似乎推迟加息并导致日元贬值，这对美国来说可不是什么好事。美国总 统特朗普曾表示，日本正试图通过低汇率来获取优势。美国财政部长贝森特在 8 月份曾表示，日本央行 在应对通胀方面行动迟缓，这是他上任以来罕见的言论。 Nissay Asset Management高级投资经理Eiichiro Miura表示："市场正在考验自民党总裁高市早苗、财务 省以及日本央行的立场。在达到 160 之前，高市早苗很可能会被日本央行说服。而且，来自美国方面的 加息压力也可能存在。" 高市早苗所在的自民党在最近的全国选举中失去了对议会两院的控制权，民众对生活成本的不满被认为 是主要原因之一。日本的关键通胀指标已连续三年保持在或高于日本央行设定的 2%的目标水平，导致 实际工资持续下降。 智通财经APP获悉，日本首相候选人高市早苗赢得自民党总裁选举，有可能会促使日本央行在本月提高 利率。由于高市早苗主张推行宽松货币政策，在她当选自民党总裁后， ...

Group 1 - The potential new Prime Minister of Japan, Sanna Takashi, may inadvertently prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates as early as this month due to her perceived disinterest in the central bank's actions, which has contributed to the depreciation of the yen [1][2] - The weakening yen is increasing import costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures, and complicating Takashi's plans to alleviate the impact of rising living costs [1] - If the yen continues to decline towards 160, and the Bank of Japan maintains interest rates, the Japanese Ministry of Finance may need to intervene in the market to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank, indicated that the likelihood of an interest rate hike in October has increased under Takashi's leadership due to public dissatisfaction with the inflation caused by yen depreciation [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under pressure due to expectations of continued monetary easing by the new government and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy direction, particularly regarding interest rate hikes [1][2] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading around 152.50, with a weekly increase exceeding 3%, marking the largest rise since September 2024 [1] - Market participants are questioning the likelihood of the BOJ raising interest rates in October or December, given the ongoing weakness in Japan's economy [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicate a cautious approach towards potential rate cuts, with inflation risks still a concern [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Expectations - The probability of a BOJ rate hike in late October has dropped to 27%, while December's likelihood stands at 44%, subject to changes with the new government [2] - BOJ officials express a mix of optimism and caution regarding the economic outlook, particularly concerning wage-related uncertainties [2] - Former BOJ officials suggest that the rationale for a rate hike this year is weak, advocating for a careful approach to policy normalization [2] Group 3: Potential Risks and Interventions - If the BOJ does not raise rates in October, the risk of foreign exchange intervention may increase, although decisive action is unlikely from the current government [2]

（文章来源：新华财经） 日本央行前副行长若田部昌澄称，日本央行尚未承诺加息的具体时间，也未释放任何信号。由于第三季 度GDP前景疲软，日本央行今年可能难以证明加息的合理性。 ...

Group 1 - The unexpected election of high-ranking official Takemi Saimai as the new leader of the ruling party has led to a significant depreciation of the Japanese yen, with the exchange rate approaching the critical psychological level of 155 yen per dollar [1] - The yen's decline has prompted the Japanese Ministry of Finance to closely monitor excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, indicating potential intervention if the depreciation continues [1][2] - Market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October have diminished due to Saimai's victory, with analysts suggesting that any rate increase may be postponed until December [1][3] Group 2 - The yen is nearing the intervention levels previously established by the Bank of Japan in 2024, with specific points of intervention identified around 157.99 to 161.76 yen per dollar [2] - Analysts from SBI FXTRADE have stated that there is currently no incentive to buy yen unless strong warnings are issued by the Ministry of Finance or signals of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan are provided [2] - Following the election results, Bank of America has revised its year-end forecast for the dollar-yen exchange rate from 153 to 155, while Deutsche Bank has downgraded its yen rating from "bullish" to "neutral" [3] Group 3 - The appointment of former finance ministers Shunichi Suzuki and Taro Aso to senior positions within the ruling party has provided some reassurance to market participants regarding fiscal policy stability [3] - The market's expectation for a rate hike in October has dropped significantly, from over 60% to approximately 25%, indicating a shift in sentiment following the election [3] - The future trajectory of the yen's value is heavily dependent on guidance from the Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding short-term interest rate policies [3]

Group 1 - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is holding a presidential election on October 4, with five candidates competing for the position [1] - The candidates include current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, current Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, former Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, and former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi [1][7] - Voting will begin at 1 PM local time, with the first round results expected around 2:10 PM, and if no candidate receives a majority, a final voting round will take place, with results anticipated by 3:20 PM [1] Group 2 - Candidate Shinjiro Koizumi advocates for reducing consumption tax, increasing defense budget, strengthening economic security, and tightening foreign relations policies, with a conservative political stance [8] - Candidate Yoshihide Suga focuses on addressing the impact of rising living costs on the economy, supports interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and emphasizes local revitalization, with a relatively moderate political stance [12] - Candidate Toshimitsu Motegi aims to lead Japan towards revitalization within two years, achieve wage growth exceeding inflation rates, and propose multi-trillion yen subsidies, also holding a relatively moderate political stance [13]

彭博Markets Live策略师马克·克兰菲尔德（MarkCranfield）表示 ， 目前日元的看涨预期正迅速升温，因 日本央行即将开启加息、美联储计划再次降息，而自民党领袖选举还将为日本经济带来更多刺激政策。 全球资产管理公司Orbis Investment Management Ltd.则在观望：若高市早苗胜选，市场可能出现混乱， 而该公司将把这种混乱视为增持其所持资产（如内需导向型股票）的机会。 本周六，日本执政党将投票决定下任领袖人选，候选人为改革派的小泉进次郎（Shinjiro Koizumi）与右 翼倾向的高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi），当前民调结果呈现胶着状态。在此背景下，各类交易策略纷纷 浮出水面。鉴于两位候选人的政策主张存在差异，此次选举结果可能对这个亚洲第二大经济体产生长期 影响。 以对冲基金Epic Partners Investments Co.为例，该公司已做好准备：一旦尘埃落定，若股市出现任何可 能的上涨，便会趁机抛售。 "我的目标是在胜者确定后，利用市场暂时的定价偏差获利，"这家位于东京的杠杆基金首席执行官竹秀 松（Hidematsu Take）表示，"如果高市早苗 ...