中信证券研报认为，日本良性通胀循环已较稳固，日本央行即将再次加息。去年夏季日本加息后的全球 市场动荡主要是由衰退预期升温和AI叙事动摇等美国因素造成，套息交易逆转只是加剧彼时避险情绪 的次要因素，去年的"黑色星期一"不太可能在今年重演。在美日央行政策分歧的背景下，美国因素才是 当前全球流动性与美元资产定价的核心主线。目前市场对AI叙事的质疑集中体现于业务模式较激进的 少数企业，而多数财务状况较稳健的AI龙头仍能维持市场信任，产业智能化热潮应能在中短期继续支 持美股龙头的业绩表现。长端美债在本轮风险管理式降息周期内的配置性价比不高，短端美债则可能受 益于准备金管理购买操作对流动性的技术性改善，后者较前者更好 ...

Group 1 - The core expectation is that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates twice in 2026, driven by rising unemployment rates and economic slowdown [1][7] - The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021, which is likely to influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [1][6] - Following the release of the non-farm employment data, traders are betting on a reduction of the benchmark interest rate to between 3% and 3.25% [1][6] Group 2 - The acceleration of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is primarily in response to a cooling job market, with revisions showing a decline in non-farm payrolls [7] - Economic indicators, such as retail sales remaining flat in October, suggest a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, raising concerns among economists [7] - The Fed's actions may set a precedent for other central banks globally, potentially leading to a broader trend of rate cuts [7] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, reflecting confidence in achieving stable inflation targets [8][9] - The anticipated rate hike by the Bank of Japan could strengthen the yen, but market reactions will depend on the forward guidance provided by the central bank [8][9] - The potential for further rate increases exists, as current rates remain low compared to other major economies, despite inflation being stable [9] Group 4 - The Chinese central bank is likely to adopt a flexible monetary policy, including potential rate cuts, to support the capital market amid global monetary easing [7][10] - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting traditional industries while also supporting technological innovation sectors, which could create new investment opportunities [10] - The ongoing bull market in A-shares is expected to last for several years, driven by sectors such as technology, new energy, and consumer goods [9][10]

| 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | 时间 | 名称 | 现价 | A MOLE A STATUS 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | 时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原琼斯工业平均 | 48288.11 | -128.45 | -0.27% | 13.50% | 09:46 | 英国富时100 | 9671.51 | -79.80 | -0.82% | 18.33% | 14:46 | | 纳斯达克指数 | 22978.35 | -79.06 | -0.34% | 18.99% | 09:46 | 法国CAC40 | 8109.26 | -15.62 | -0.19% | 9.87% | 15:31 | | 标普500 | 6791.43 | -25.08 | -0.37% | 15.47% | 09:46 | 德国DAX | 24097.59 | -132.32 | -0.55% | 21.04% | 15:31 | | 罗索3000指数 | 3860.0 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a day of volatility with all three major indices opening lower and continuing to decline throughout the day, resulting in a total market volume decrease of 49.3 billion [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, all asset classes faced significant declines, with the South Korean Composite Index dropping by 1.89% and the Nikkei 225 Index falling by 1.38%, breaking below the 50,000 mark [2] Hong Kong Market Impact - The Hang Seng Index and related indices saw a sharp increase in their decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and the National Index both falling over 2.5% [3] - Major tech companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, and Meituan experienced increased losses, reflecting market concerns over potential tax implications for high-tech companies [3] Japanese Monetary Policy - Historically, each interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been associated with global economic downturns, as seen in past events such as the 2000 Nasdaq crash and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis [4] - Current discussions indicate that Japan is at a critical juncture regarding interest rate increases, with implications for global financial stability [4]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,235.41 points, down 393.47 points, representing a drop of 1.54% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index also fell, closing at 5,402.51 points, down 95.91 points, a decrease of 1.74% [2] Market Influences - The decline in the Hong Kong market was attributed to overall low market sentiment and a collective drop in the Asia-Pacific markets, notably the Nikkei 225 index down 1.56% and the KOSPI index down 2.24%, which negatively impacted both A-shares and H-shares [4] - Anticipation of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, where a potential interest rate hike from 0.5% to 0.75% is expected, may lead to foreign capital returning to Japan, increasing risk aversion and affecting the Hong Kong market [7] Sector Performance - The market saw widespread declines across various sectors, with notable drops in technology stocks such as Alibaba down nearly 3%, and other major players like Xiaomi, JD.com, and Bilibili down over 2% [7] - Gold stocks also faced declines, with Zijin Mining down over 4%, and other gold companies like Shandong Gold and Lingbao Gold down over 3% [7] Capital Flow - There was a net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks, amounting to over 80 million HKD by the end of the trading day [8] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong market is at a potential rebound phase, with attractive long-term positioning despite existing risks. The focus remains on the economic fundamentals of China and the inflow of southbound capital [10] - The market is expected to remain volatile until the end of the year, with a consensus on a strong policy opening in the first quarter of the next year, particularly favoring sectors like technology and metals [10]

铂：内盘领涨，料继续突破 2025 年 12 月 16 日 钯：ETF 增持边际上扬，继续冲击前高 资料来源：同花顺，Wind，彭博，国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 482. 40 | | 6. 71% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 466. 85 | | 4. 78% | | | | 纽约铂主连 | 1815. 90 | | 2. 93% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金 | 1785. 30 | | 2. 47% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 407. 60 | | 4.66% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 368. 00 | | 0. 82% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连 | 1.622.00 | | 4. 81% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金 | 1,572. 50 | | 5.51% | ...

日本银行（央行）12月18~19日将召开金融政策决定会议，上调目前为0.5％的政策利率，现已进入最终 协调阶段。最可能的方案是加息0.25％至0.75％，达到1995年以后30年来的最高利率水平。 日本央行12月18~19日将召开金融政策决定会议，上调目前为0.5％的政策利率。最可能的方案是加息 0.25％至0.75％，达到1995年以后30年来的最高利率水平。目前没有一名日本央行的政策委员明确表态 反对加息…… 日本央行总裁植田和男等高管已暗示有意提交加息议案。日本经济新闻的采访内容显示，包括央行正副 总裁在内的9名政策委员中，预计一半以上会支持方案。 这将是2025年1月以后，日本央行11个月来再次上调政策利率。1990年代日本泡沫经济破裂后，央行曾 于1995年9月把当时相当于政策利率的官方贴现率从1.0％下调至0.5％。此次将是自那以来政策利率首次 超过0.5％。 日本央行总裁植田和男（12月1日，名古屋，Kyodo） 目前没有一名政策委员明确表态反对加息，日本政府内部也普遍对加息持认可态度。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 由于担心美国特朗普政府的关税政策会对日本经济产生不良 ...

不过，白宫首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特仍是这一职位的最热门人选，在上述两个预测市场中，其获提名 概率均高于50%。 从降息概率看，虽然市场多家机构预测美联储将在1月份继续降息，但据CME"美联储观察"预测，美联 储2026年1月降息25个基点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率为75.69%。美联储到明年3月累计降息 25个基点的概率为41.4%，维持利率不变的概率为50.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为8.1%。 周五（12月12日），全球资本市场跳水，美股、黄金与白银集体走低。12月14日晚间，加密货币也普遍 跳水。 消息面上，有两大不确定性压顶。 首先，美联储虽然已经降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔对明年1月份是否降息表态并不明朗，有观点认为， 美联储目前的决策愈发依赖经济数据，1月份降息与否不确定性增强。 值得注意的是，在获得美国总统特朗普的"点赞"以及华尔街最有影响力的人物之一、摩根大通CEO杰米 ·戴蒙的支持后，前美联储理事凯文·沃什成为下一任美联储主席的概率大幅攀升。 据截至周六（12月13日）的数据，在美国预测市场Kalshi和Polymarket上，沃什被特朗普提名为美联储 主席的概率分别上升了17和 ...

周五（12月12日），全球资本市场跳水，美股、黄金与白银集体走低。今日（12月14日）晚间，加密货 币也普遍跳水。 | 美股指数 它 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 48458.05 | 23195.17 | 6827.41 | | -245.96 -0.51% | -398.69 -1.69% | -73.59 -1.07% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7750.10 | 25202.50 | 6833.50 | | -23.27 -0.30% | -511.00 -1.99% | -73.75 -1.07% | 消息面上，有两大不确定性压顶。 首先，美联储虽然已经降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔对明年1月份是否降息表态并不明朗，有观点认为， 美联储目前的决策愈发依赖经济数据，1月份降息与否不确定性增强。 值得注意的是，在获得美国总统特朗普的"点赞"以及华尔街最有影响力的人物之一、摩根大通CEO杰米 ·戴蒙的支持后，前美联储理事凯文·沃什成为下一任美联储主席的概率大幅攀升。 据截至周六（12月13日）的数 ...

如果12月加息，作为政策利率的无担保隔夜拆借利率将上升到0.75%左右。30多年来，该利率（月平 均）一直没有超过0.5%左右的"壁垒"，但今后将突破这一壁垒。 受"历史性加息"影响，市场参与者也将更加关注2026年加息的情况。 清水功哉：日本银行（央行）在12月18～19日的货币政策会议上很可能敲定今年第2次的0.25%左右加 息，这次加息可能被认为是"历史性的"。因为在过去的35年里，日本的加息幅度没有超过过0.5%…… 清水功哉： 日本银行（央行）在12月18～19日的货币政策会议上敲定成为今年第2次的0.25%左右加息 这一可能性正在被市场强烈意识到，这次加息可能被认为是"历史性的"。这是因为2025年的年加息幅度 合计将达约0.5%，创出35年来最大幅度，作为约30年来利率上限的"0.5%壁垒"的突破也将实现。 这将再次给人留下"利率上升时代"到来的印象，以长期利率上升显著的债券市场为代表，或将对市场氛 围产生影响。 日本央行随着1998年实施现行《日本银行法》，获得货币政策的"自主性"，自那以来，其中有5年决定 加息。分别是解除零利率的2000年、第二次解除零利率的2006年、进一步加息的2007 ...