得益于房企年中冲刺营销加码，市场热度延续高位波动，6月新房成交预期延续止跌回稳弱复苏行情。 ◎ 文 / 俞倩倩 2025年以来整体楼市延续止跌企稳走势，3-4月传统"小阳春"后，5月市场热度延续，目前6月已度过半月有 余，究竟市场回暖持续性几何？各城市复苏有何差异化特征，基于当前市场逻辑，下半年楼市成交是否还 有放量空间，哪些城市又存在结构性机会呢？ 6月半月30城项目平均去化率37% 环降同增、仍处高位震荡 01 据CRIC监测数据， 重点30城6月前15日成交面积达215.9万平方米，与去年同期基本持平（微降9%）。 一 线率先回稳， 6月上半月成交量较去年同期增长19%，主要源于购买力基础雄厚，去年三季度末新政刺 激，存量客户潜在需求被激发，加之去年同期基数不高，也使得成交规模有了显著增长。而 二线和三四线 城市小阳春成色相对一般， 同比分别下降15%和14%，更多是局部复苏，主要源于购买力疲软，市场热度 仍有待一线传导。 从短期市场热度来看，仍处于高位波动区间： 据CRIC监测数据，6月上半月重点30城项目开盘去化率为 37%，较2025年5月全月下降2pcts,与2024年6月全月相比增长7pcts ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai real estate market has shown a trend of stabilization and improvement since the beginning of the year, with active market conditions during the "golden March and silver April" period [1] - In May, both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes in Shanghai experienced year-on-year growth, with price indices remaining stable, reinforcing the "volume increase and price stability" theme for the year [2] Group 2: New Housing Market - In May, the total area of new housing transactions in Shanghai reached 620,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 24%, driven by stable subscriptions for new projects and steady sales of existing projects [2] - The average transaction price for new homes in May was 90,691 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month increase of 24.8%, marking a historical high for monthly average prices in Shanghai [11] - The supply of new housing in May was 735,000 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 49.2% and a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, indicating a rapid recovery in supply [11] Group 3: Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai remained active, with 1.61 million square meters (19,000 units) sold in May, a year-on-year increase of 14%, the highest for the same period since 2022 [3] - The transaction volume of second-hand homes has exceeded 15,000 units for eight consecutive months, with prices showing a slight recovery [5] - In May, the average transaction price for second-hand homes decreased by 0.66% month-on-month and 8.06% year-on-year, reflecting a "price for volume" strategy in the market [12] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the current high transaction volume in the second-hand market will continue to provide stable demand for improvement, with expectations for a strong performance in June [7] - The land market in Shanghai has shown strong vitality, with significant transactions occurring, including a record-breaking land sale in the Xuhui District for 34.135 billion yuan [15] - The upcoming land auction scheduled for June 19 is expected to inject more vitality into the land market, with a starting total price of 19.247 billion yuan, setting a record for the year [19]

一线城市"领跑"楼市复苏，其他城市新房和二手房的交易量也在明显增加。杭州二手房成交套数创8年新高，成都二手房成交面 积同比增长32.9%，宁波、合肥、苏州的新房成交量同比增幅均超过了50%。业内人士表示，这得益于一系列政策，如首付比例下 调、房贷利率下降及"以旧换新"优惠等，降低了购房门槛和成本，促进了市场的止跌回稳。 央视网消息：今年以来，受一系列房地产调整优化政策的影响，楼市回暖态势明显。特别是三四月份以来，房地产市场进入传统 销售旺季，各地区各部门因城施策、精准施策，一线城市成交量同比激增，二线城市改善型需求爆发，市场活跃度不断提升。 3月份，北京新房网签环比涨111%，同比涨36%；二手房网签环比涨62%，同比涨35%。深圳新房网签环比增长67.5%，同比增长 47.2%；二手房网签环比增长65.3%，同比增长58.3%。上海一季度的二手住宅成交套数同比去年一季度增长了45%，广州的二手住宅 交易登记面积同比增长了26.2%。 此外，今年，土地交易市场的热度也在不断回升。中指研究院最新数据显示，今年一季度，300个城市住宅用地出让金达0.4万亿 元，同比增长26.5%，平均溢价率达13.6%，较去年同 ...

今年1月一线城市的新房价格环比上涨了0.1%。而二线城市新房价格也开始环比上涨。 这是自 2023年6月份以来，时隔19个月后的首次上涨，这对全国楼市的企稳有一定的风向标意义。 再来看第三个方面，土地交易。截止到2月25日，全国住宅用地成交金额同比增长11%，成交溢 价率提高到9%—14%。2月20日，上海举办了今年的首场土拍，4块土地吸引了17家房企，总成 交金额159.26亿，整体溢价率超过33%，并刷新了上海的地王纪录。在过去的两个月里，北、 上、广、深、杭、蓉都出现了新的土地拍卖地王纪录。 我们最后来看政策方面。这一轮楼市要真正复苏，只有通过城中村改造，把核心城市的优质土 地存量腾挪出来，由此可以激发出真正的新的需求。 在2025年各地的政府工作报告中，有24个大中城市强调将推进城中村和危旧房的改造。比如上 海就宣布启动25个城中村改造项目。北京市提出了要实施500个老旧小区的综合整治。 如果在未来的两到三个月里，二手房交易量能够持续保持现在的增长，新房价格能够企稳，再 加上各个城市加快推进城中村改造，那么楼市复苏将可能成为一个真正的现实。 立即点击 ▲ 观看视频 关于2025年的经济，我一直坚持一个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of "land kings" in cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai signals a potential recovery in the real estate market, with these cities leading the way in high land prices and competitive bidding [1][7][8]. Group 1: Land Price Trends - A land parcel in Shanghai's Jing'an District sold for approximately 16.23 million yuan per square meter, surpassing the previous record of 13.1 million yuan per square meter set in August [2]. - In Hangzhou, a land parcel was auctioned for about 50,682.49 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 72.48%, marking it as the third highest price in the city's history [4]. - Non-first-tier and strong second-tier cities are also witnessing record-breaking land prices, such as a land parcel in Tianjin selling for 43,449 yuan per square meter, the highest since 2018 [6]. Group 2: Factors Driving Land Price Increases - The key to the aggressive bidding in Hangzhou and Shanghai is the release of high-quality urban land parcels, often located in prime areas with established amenities [10]. - The limited supply of premium land in core areas of major cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen has resulted in a lag behind the land price increases seen in Hangzhou and Shanghai [12][13]. - The participation of private enterprises in land acquisition is notably higher in Hangzhou compared to other first-tier cities, where state-owned enterprises dominate the market [14]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current land auction environment differs from the past, as developers are no longer constrained by the "7090" policy, allowing for more diverse and high-end product offerings [16]. - The government is strategically raising land prices in core areas to attract both individual and institutional investments, without significantly increasing overall market prices [17]. - There is a belief that a healthy land auction market should see equal participation from state-owned and private enterprises, which is currently not the case [20][21]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations for Market Recovery - Effective policies to stimulate the market include land acquisition and urban village redevelopment to address inventory issues and boost demand [23][24]. - Recommendations also include the removal of purchase restrictions in major cities and adjustments to mortgage rates to enhance affordability [26]. - A tailored approach to policy implementation is necessary, focusing on local conditions and market dynamics to foster a balanced recovery [28].