Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a favorable position due to mid-term inflation expectations reaching target levels and a more balanced economic growth outlook, making the threshold for further interest rate cuts very high [1] Group 1 - ECB Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that the current economic conditions do not warrant further rate cuts [1] - The ECB plans to gradually reduce its monetary policy bond investment portfolio to zero [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) must retain all policy options due to significant economic uncertainty, with no pre-commitment or exclusion of further rate cuts [1][4] - Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB's governing council, emphasized the need for caution in policy-making, highlighting the resilience of the economy against various adverse factors but acknowledging future uncertainties [1][4] - The ECB has cut rates eight times since June 2024, and the market expects the upcoming meeting on July 24 to maintain rates unchanged [1][4] Group 2 - Despite inflation being around the 2% target, concerns remain about the risk of long-term inflation rates falling below this target, with predictions indicating CPI data will remain below 2% for the next 18 months [3] - Nagel reiterated that the low inflation forecast for 2026 is primarily due to base effects rather than fundamental economic issues, expressing optimism about maintaining inflation around the target in the medium term [3] - The ECB's strategy evaluation indicates a commitment to act decisively when inflation is significantly above or below the target, while large-scale asset purchases should remain an absolute exception due to risks to the central bank's balance sheet [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic conditions in the Eurozone do not warrant further monetary easing, as the economy is gradually recovering and inflation is near target levels [1][3]. Economic Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) can maintain stable borrowing costs during its upcoming meeting, as there have been eight rate cuts since June 2024 and inflation is "basically at target" [1]. - ECB officials believe that the inflation rate will stabilize around the 2% target in the medium term after dipping below this level in 2026 [3]. Trade Relations - The ECB is closely monitoring the evolving trade relationship between the EU and the US, particularly the impact of tariffs set by the Trump administration on the EU economy [3]. - There is uncertainty regarding the specific situation in September, but officials expect to gain clearer insights into trade and fiscal plans for better assessments [3]. Inflation Risks - Risks affecting the inflation outlook, such as potential supply chain disruptions, fiscal spending, and energy price fluctuations, are considered to be in a balanced state [3]. - The strong euro, which has appreciated by 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, may complicate policy decisions for the ECB [3][4]. Currency Impact - A strong euro can lower import prices and reduce the competitiveness of exports, both of which can suppress inflation [4]. - Despite the rapid appreciation of the euro, ECB officials do not express significant concern, noting that the current exchange rate remains within historical ranges [4].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is increasingly considering exchange rate movements as a significant factor in its monetary policy decisions, especially in light of recent comments from Governing Council member Kazaks regarding the potential for further interest rate cuts if the euro strengthens [1][3][4] - The recent appreciation of the euro has begun to suppress import prices, particularly for commodities and energy, which may hinder the momentum for inflation recovery, posing a challenge for the ECB's goal of maintaining inflation within target ranges [3][4] - Kazaks emphasized a "gradual adjustment" approach, indicating that the ECB's current strategy is cautious and methodical, reflecting awareness of global economic uncertainties and external variables [3][4] Group 2 - The potential for the euro to act as a catalyst for a second interest rate cut by the ECB depends on its sustained strength and its actual impact on core inflation [4] - The exchange rate has re-emerged as an important consideration for the ECB, suggesting that the flexibility of European monetary policy may be greater than previously anticipated [4]

Group 1 - France's June CPI rose for the first time this year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, surpassing expectations [1] - Service inflation accelerated to 2.4%, while food inflation slightly increased to 1.4%, and energy prices saw a narrower decline of 6.9% [1] - The rise in inflation is attributed to geopolitical tensions affecting prices, particularly in the Middle East, impacting major economies in the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) completed its eighth rate cut since June last year, as inflation had been cooling earlier in the year [2] - ECB officials expressed satisfaction with the current trajectory of consumer prices, which have decreased from record highs to just below the 2% target [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation and U.S. trade policies adds complexity to the economic outlook, prompting the ECB to maintain flexibility in its monetary policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Nagel stated that given the current special uncertainties, signaling a pause or rate cut would be unwise [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - Nagel emphasized the importance of maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy in light of ongoing uncertainties in the economic environment [1] Economic Uncertainty - The statement reflects concerns about the unpredictable nature of the current economic landscape, suggesting that any premature actions regarding interest rates could be detrimental [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank's decision on whether to maintain interest rates at the next meeting will depend on actual circumstances rather than a pre-set path [1]

维勒鲁瓦：欧洲央行将根据数据"灵活"反应 金十数据6月10日讯，欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦周二表示，面对目前的高度不确定性，欧洲央行随时准备 在必要时对经济数据作出反应。欧洲央行上周四第八次降息，并暗示在经历了2008/2009年全球金融危 机以来最快的政策宽松周期后，现在可能会暂停降息。"根据数据，我们将保持务实的态度，并将采取 必要的灵活措施，"维勒鲁瓦称。"政策与通胀目前处于有利区域，但这并不意味着欧洲央行将保持静 止。" ...

据知情人士透露，欧洲央行官员预计在7月下次制定政策时将暂停降息行动。鉴于美国总统特朗普关税 政策的不确定性，目前最有可能的情况是，在八次下调借贷成本后暂停降息。知情人士拒绝透露姓名， 讨论的是机密谈判。一些官员认为借贷成本的下调可能已经结束，而另一些官员仍然支持再次降息—— 可能要到9月（才暂停）。他们强调，随着7月9日美欧贸易谈判最后期限的临近，政策制定者的想法可 能还会发生变化。（彭博） ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce another interest rate cut on June 5, which has been anticipated by the market and investors [2] - The ECB has lowered interest rates seven times in the past 13 months to support the struggling Eurozone economy, but faces a dilemma between further cuts and pausing the easing cycle due to differing short-term and medium-term economic outlooks [2] - Eurozone inflation has stabilized around the ECB's target of 2% after a decline from high levels since the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting the ECB to consider a reduction in the deposit rate to 2.0%, viewed as a neutral rate [2] Group 2 - Spot gold prices have recently risen, maintaining above the key resistance level of $3365, confirming a breakout and trading within a small bullish channel [2] - The performance of gold is supported by trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), indicating key dynamic support, with positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) enhancing the bullish trend [2] - The expected trading range for gold is between the support level of $3330 and the resistance level of $3435, with a target of $3435 if prices stabilize above $3365 [2]