Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged, marking the first pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, amid moderate economic growth and inflation reaching the 2% target [1][2] - The ECB's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively, with inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2027 set at 2.0% and 2026 at 1.6% [1] - The uncertainty surrounding US-EU trade negotiations, particularly the potential for tariffs up to 30% on EU goods, is a significant external factor impacting the ECB's policy space [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the ongoing trade negotiations are affecting corporate decision-making and may lead to a shift in production capacity towards the eurozone, potentially lowering product prices and increasing price instability [2] - The ECB's assessment indicates a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in actual GDP for the eurozone in Q1, driven by preemptive shipping by businesses and stronger consumption and investment [2][3] - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the eurozone rose to 51 from 50.6 in June, indicating a notable expansion in the services sector, although manufacturing remains in contraction [2]

Group 1 - The euro has appreciated against the pound, increasing by 0.4% to reach a high of 0.87%, the highest level since April [1] - Bloomberg reported that dovish policymakers within the European Central Bank are facing resistance, with the current assumption for September being to "remain on hold" [1]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank officials are expected to maintain the current interest rates in September, indicating a struggle among decision-makers who advocate for further rate cuts [1] Group 1 - ECB officials believe that those advocating for another rate cut will face significant opposition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently in a "wait-and-see" mode, having maintained interest rates for the first time in over a year due to uncertainties in U.S. trade policy [1] Interest Rates - The ECB has kept the deposit rate at 2%, aligning with analysts' predictions [1] - This decision reflects a cautious approach amid unclear future tariff levels [1] Inflation and Economic Position - With inflation reaching 2%, the ECB believes it is in a favorable position to observe how risks develop in the coming months [1] - ECB President Lagarde emphasized the importance of monitoring future economic conditions before making further policy adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, emphasizing that current inflation has stabilized at the mid-term target of 2% and future policies will adopt a "data-dependent, gradual assessment" approach without pre-setting interest rate paths [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The ECB's governing council unanimously decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged during the July meeting [1]. - Future monetary policy will follow a "data-dependent" and "gradual meeting assessment" principle, considering inflation outlook, economic data, potential inflation dynamics, and the transmission effects of monetary policy [1][5]. - ECB President Lagarde stated that decisions will be based on the complete information available at each meeting, without pre-setting specific interest rate paths [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Eurozone's economic growth in Q1 exceeded expectations, driven by preemptive export expansions, recovering private consumption, and increased investment activities [1]. - The unemployment rate in May was 6.3%, close to the lowest level since the euro's introduction, supporting consumer resilience alongside actual income growth and healthy private sector balance sheets [2]. - The June annual inflation rate for the Eurozone was 2.0%, with energy prices rising month-on-month but remaining low year-on-year, and food inflation slightly decreasing to 3.1% [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - High actual and expected tariffs, a strong euro, and geopolitical uncertainties have led to a decline in corporate investment willingness, posing a significant obstacle to current economic growth [2]. - Global trade tensions, deteriorating financial market sentiment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts may suppress exports and drag down investment and consumption [3]. - The fragmentation of global supply chains is pushing up import prices, while extreme weather and climate crises could lead to unexpected increases in food prices [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Conditions - Since the last meeting, market interest rates, particularly long-term rates, have risen, but the cumulative effects of previous rate cuts continue to show [5]. - The new loan rate for enterprises in May decreased to 3.7%, while bond issuance costs fell to 3.6%, indicating an increase in direct financing [5]. - The ECB is prepared to adjust all tools within its mandate to ensure inflation remains sustainably stable at the target level and to maintain the smooth operation of monetary policy transmission mechanisms [5].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged, ending a series of seven consecutive rate cuts, with the deposit rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the current interest rates are in a reasonable range and that monetary policy is supporting the goal of achieving a 2% medium-term inflation target [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the ECB is likely to reassess the situation in September, with more complete data and tariff developments providing a basis for policy decisions [2][3] Group 2 - The ECB has warned that external risks remain high, particularly due to escalating trade tensions and exchange rate fluctuations, which could hinder corporate investment [2] - Lagarde noted that stronger euro and higher tariffs are expected to make corporate investment more challenging, reflecting market concerns about the outlook for recent US-EU trade negotiations [2] - The ECB is adopting a cautious approach, preferring to wait for clearer signals before making further policy decisions, as indicated by various analysts [2] Group 3 - The eurozone economy shows resilience driven by domestic demand, supported by a strong labor market, rising real incomes, and robust private sector balance sheets [3] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable at around 2%, with core inflation pressures easing and wage growth slowing, reducing the risk of price increases [3] - Analysts believe that the current interest rate levels provide space for the ECB to remain observant, with expectations that rates will remain stable until autumn unless significant changes in inflation or growth prospects occur [3]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to pause its year-long interest rate cut cycle, marking the first such pause in over a year, as policymakers await clearer information before deciding on future actions [1][2] - A recent survey indicated that all but two economists expect the ECB to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the upcoming meeting, temporarily halting the 200 basis points of rate cuts that began in June 2024 [1] - The ECB's communication style and policy statement will be closely watched, particularly how officials describe the decision to maintain rates, as the use of the term "pause" may fuel market expectations that rate cuts are not over [1][3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, particularly President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, is a primary reason for the ECB's decision to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2] - The potential impact of these tariffs poses significant risks to the European economic outlook, with the ECB's previous stress tests only assuming a 20% tariff on all European goods [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that the eurozone's output could stagnate in the second and third quarters due to these tariff impacts [2] Group 3 - There is a lack of consensus among ECB officials regarding the next steps after the pause, with some advocating for further easing due to concerns that inflation may remain below the 2% target [3] - Conversely, other officials express caution, suggesting that the threshold for further rate cuts is "very high," and they warn that increased public spending in the coming years could stimulate prices [3] - The strong euro, which has appreciated 13% against the dollar this year, is causing concern among some policymakers as it could make exports more expensive and lower import costs [4][7] Group 4 - The ECB is also monitoring the euro's strength closely, with some officials indicating that a rise above 1.20 against the dollar could complicate the economic situation and prompt the ECB to consider further rate cuts [7] - However, not all officials share this concern, with some arguing that fears regarding the euro's strength are exaggerated and that it is difficult to complain about its strength while advocating for its global status [7]

新华财经巴黎7月22日电 欧洲中央银行将于本周召开货币政策会议，届时，距离8月1日美国对欧盟关税 暂停期结束仅剩一周左右时间。欧洲央行自去年6月以来已累计八次下调三大关键利率，且最近七次议 息会议上连续降息，目前已将存款利率降至2%。市场分析师普遍认为，由于美国关税不确定性持续以 及宽松空间足够，欧洲央行或将"踩下刹车"。 降息或按下"暂停键" 7月12日，美国总统特朗普威胁称，如果欧盟在8月1日前未能与美国达成贸易协议，就将对欧盟进口商 品征收30%的关税。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩以及贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇等官员对此回应称， 若无法达成协议，欧盟将实施反制措施。7月20日，美国商务部长卢特尼克进一步表示，谈判不会影响 加征关税，8月1日作为美方拟向欧盟输美产品征收30%关税的起始日期是"硬性"的，但此后双方仍可以 继续谈判。 尽管欧洲央行本周不太可能继续降息，但暂停并不意味着终点。分析人士认为，为了遏制欧元超涨，欧 洲央行很有可能在今年晚些时候继续降息。 由于关税问题给决策带来的复杂性，市场估计欧洲央行将暂时"按兵不动"，而不是先发制人，预计欧洲 央行在7月24日将维持利率不变。掉期市场的交易员认为，本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should not be complacent with its current policy outcomes and must remain proactive in response to economic challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Challenges - The strengthening of the euro against the dollar may lead to lower inflation levels [1] - Potential tariffs of up to 30% threatened by President Trump against the EU are adding economic pressure [1] Group 2: ECB Policy Outlook - Following the recent reduction of the eurozone deposit rate to 2%, ECB policymakers may have anticipated a "wait-and-see" period [1] - It is likely that the ECB will maintain its current policy at the upcoming meeting, preferring to wait for the potential impact of the tariff measures before taking further action [1] - ECB President Lagarde's summer vacation may be shorter and more tumultuous than initially expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a favorable position due to mid-term inflation expectations reaching target levels and a more balanced economic growth outlook, making the threshold for further interest rate cuts very high [1] Group 1 - ECB Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that the current economic conditions do not warrant further rate cuts [1] - The ECB plans to gradually reduce its monetary policy bond investment portfolio to zero [1]