Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 15, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Dalian Commodity Exchange corn futures have declined rapidly in recent days, with the near - term November contract breaking below the 2,100 yuan mark. Based on the fourth - quarter forecast range, the price has taken an important step in bottom - finding. The price structure shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, corresponding to the decreasing pressure of spot supply. The 2601 contract is about to become the main contract, and the futures price regained 2,100 yuan yesterday. It may form a short - term consolidation and repair, and the opening of storage warehouses to purchase supports the rebound of the futures price. The registered warehouse receipts have slightly increased to 36,709 lots. [2] - In the spot market, the market continues to digest the pressure of new grain listing, and the spot price is weak. The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong and North China have more declines than increases. There are positive changes in the Heilongjiang production area, where some direct - affiliated warehouses of the China Grain Reserves Corporation have started to purchase corn, which stabilizes the price. With the start of purchases by the China Grain Reserves Corporation, the decline of the corn spot price may change rhythmically, and the recent large decline needs to be repaired. The positive factors in the market are accumulating, but during the period of new grain supply, the support is insufficient, and the market will mainly digest the pressure in the short term. By the end of this month, the new grain harvesting will enter the final stage, and important price nodes may appear. [2] - The CBOT corn futures price is running weakly, waiting for further guidance from the US Department of Agriculture's October supply - demand report. Due to the government shutdown, the report release time has been postponed. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - **Corn Spot Price**: The price of Jinzhou Port is 2,140 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shekou Port is 2,310 yuan, down 20 yuan; the price of Harbin is 2,020 yuan, unchanged. The basis of Jinzhou Port's main - connected contract is 47, down 11. [4] - **Corn Starch Spot Price**: The price in Shandong is 2,740 yuan, unchanged; the price in Jilin is 2,550 yuan, unchanged; the price in Heilongjiang is 2,460 yuan, down 20 yuan. The basis of Shandong's main - connected contract is 355, up 16. [4] - **Futures Price**: For corn futures, from October 13 to 14, 2025, the price of the November contract increased by 1 yuan (0.05%), the January contract increased by 5 yuan (0.24%), the March contract increased by 15 yuan (0.71%), the May contract increased by 10 yuan (0.46%), the July contract increased by 9 yuan (0.41%), and the September contract remained unchanged. For corn starch futures, the November contract decreased by 16 yuan (- 0.67%), the January contract decreased by 1 yuan (- 0.04%), the March contract increased by 6 yuan (0.25%), the May contract increased by 2 yuan (0.08%), the July contract increased by 3 yuan (0.12%), and the September contract decreased by 3 yuan (- 0.12%). The wheat average price remained unchanged. [4][7] Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: The purchase by direct - affiliated warehouses of the China Grain Reserves Corporation restricts the price decline space; relevant national departments have intensively investigated the North China and Huang - Huaihai production areas and taken multiple measures to relieve the impact of rainfall on the harvest and listing of crops; the pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, and it is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure. [2] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the medium - term demand for corn for feed; the release of the new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the price is in the process of bottom - finding or at the bottom; there are many trucks arriving in Shandong, and deep - processing enterprises generally purchase at reduced prices; the deteriorated corn in North China still impacts the price. [6] US Corn Market - **US Futures Price and Import Profit**: The price of CBOT corn main - connected contract is 413.25, up 2.75 (0.67%); the price of COBT soybean main - connected contract is 1,006.25, down 2 (- 0.2%); the price of CBOT wheat main - connected contract is 500.25, up 3.5 (0.7%). The duty - paid price of the US Gulf is 2,081.57 yuan, down 7.51 (- 0.36%), with an import profit of 248.43 yuan; the duty - paid price of the US West is 1,933.38 yuan, down 7.47 (- 0.38%), with an import profit of 396.62 yuan. [29]

Group 1: Report Date and Title - The report is dated October 15, 2025, with the title "Corn: A Slight Rebound" [1] Group 2: Corn Fundamental Data Spot Prices - The Jinzhou closing price is 2,120 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Guangdong Shekou price is 2,310 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the Shandong corn starch price is 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Futures Prices - C2511 closed at 2,093 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.66%, and 2,096 yuan/ton in the night session, up 0.14%; C2601 closed at 2,111 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.14%, and 2,118 yuan/ton in the night session, up 0.33% [2] Trading Volume and Open Interest - C2511's trading volume was 568,484 lots yesterday, an increase of 47,648 lots, and open interest was 479,322 lots, a decrease of 72,733 lots; C2601's trading volume was 369,769 lots, an increase of 65,582 lots, and open interest was 663,421 lots, an increase of 79,234 lots; the whole - market trading volume of corn was 1,107,336 lots, an increase of 169,073 lots, and open interest was 1,650,545 lots, an increase of 28,854 lots [2] Warehouse Receipts and Spreads - The whole - market warehouse receipts of corn were 36,709 lots, unchanged; the main 11 - contract basis was 27 yuan/ton; the 11 - 01 inter - period spread was - 18 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - The bulk shipping collection price of northern corn is 2070 - 2080 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and the container collection price is 2170 - 2180 yuan/ton (new grain, low - toxicity included), unchanged; the bulk shipping price in Guangdong Shekou is 2290 - 2310 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan, and the container price is 2420 - 2440 yuan/ton, unchanged. Northeast deep - processing corn prices continue to decline, and North China corn prices mostly fall [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of corn is 0 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fourth quarter, it is the period of concentrated supply of new-season corn. In October, the pressure of harvest and concentrated listing is relatively large. The supply-demand structure is temporarily imbalanced, leading to a situation where prices are more likely to fall than rise. The price of new-season corn has been declining. Since October, continuous rainy weather in the North China production area has led to a decline in corn quality, adding additional short-term price pressure. The production situation in the Northeast production area is good, with mainly sunny weather. After continuous declines, prices have recently stopped falling, mainly due to the excessive short-term decline. The maximum decline in the price of damp grain has exceeded 150 yuan/ton. Additionally, the decrease in the proportion of high-quality corn in the North China production area provides some support for the Northeast production area. Local deep-processing enterprises in the Northeast may initiate grain-locking actions, helping prices to stop falling. Overall, although not pessimistic about the medium- to long-term corn prices, currently it is still the peak period of new-season corn listing, and prices are still under pressure. Bullish factors need to accumulate and ferment, and it is difficult to say that prices will stabilize and rise in the short term. Attention should be paid to the price performance at the end of the month and early November [1]. - The corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange took an important step in the bottom-finding process yesterday. Multiple contracts declined simultaneously. The main November contract fell below the 2,100-yuan mark, becoming the first corn contract this year to break through this level. The decline in far-month contracts weakened successively, and the month-spread structure steepened. The number of registered warehouse receipts increased significantly, highlighting the pressure on the spot market [1]. - The price of CBOT corn futures is consolidating at a low level, waiting for further guidance from the USDA's October supply and demand report [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bullish Factors - The import volume of corn and grains remains at a low level, providing a basis for the improvement of the medium-term corn supply-demand structure [5]. - The pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, and it is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure passes [5]. - The purchasing sentiment in the Northeast production area has increased, and prices have stopped falling [5]. Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of production capacity regulation, which may affect the medium-term feed demand for corn [3]. - The release of the new-season supply pressure still needs a process, and prices are in the bottom-finding or bottom-grinding stage [3]. - In the past two days, there have been many trucks arriving in Shandong, and deep-processing enterprises generally purchase at reduced prices [3]. Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main Continuous Basis | Location | Corn Price & Basis | Today's Change | Location | Corn Starch Price & Basis | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2,150 | -20 | Shandong | 2,740 | -10 | | Shekou Port | 2,330 | -40 | Jilin | 2,550 | -10 | | Harbin | 2,020 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2,480 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main Continuous Basis | 58 | 13 | Shandong Main Continuous Basis | 339 | 21 | [3] Corn & Starch Futures Prices | Contract | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-13 | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2,125 | 2,092 | -33 | -1.55% | | Corn 01 | 2,125 | 2,106 | -19 | -0.89% | | Corn 03 | 2,140 | 2,125 | -15 | -0.70% | | Corn 05 | 2,204 | 2,192 | -12 | -0.54% | | Corn 07 | 2,216 | 2,209 | -7 | -0.32% | | Corn 09 | 2,226 | 2,226 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2,432 | 2,401 | -31 | -1.27% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2,430 | 2,402 | -28 | -1.15% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2,440 | 2,416 | -24 | -0.98% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2,531 | 2,515 | -16 | -0.63% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2,535 | 2,524 | -11 | -0.43% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2,578 | 2,573 | -5 | -0.19% | | Wheat Average Price | 2,462 | 2,464 | 2 | 0.08% | [3][6] U.S. Corn Prices and Import Profits | Item | Price | Daily Change | Increase Rate | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main Continuous | 410.5 | -3 | -0.73% | | | COBT Soybean Main Continuous | 1,008.25 | 1.25 | 0.12% | | | CBOT Wheat Main Continuous | 496.75 | -2 | -0.4% | | | U.S. Gulf Port Duty-Paid Price | 2,089.08 | -22.55 | -1.07% | 280.92 | | U.S. West Coast Duty-Paid Price | 1,940.85 | -16.5 | -0.84% | 429.15 | [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests maintaining a bearish outlook for the medium to long term in the corn and corn starch markets. For corn, with the progress of the US corn harvest, supply pressure will gradually increase, and domestic new - corn harvest in the Northeast is accelerating, leading to a weakening of both US and domestic corn prices. For corn starch, increased supply of raw material corn, reduced downstream demand, high inventory, and substitution from other starches are causing the market to decline in tandem with corn [8][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2125 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from before the holiday [8] - **Market Outlook**: US corn inventory as of September 1 was higher than expected, and the harvest progress was about 29%. In China, the new - corn harvest in the Northeast is accelerating, with high selling enthusiasm among farmers and limited capacity of grain - using enterprises, resulting in price cuts. The futures price is weakly adjusted under the influence of weak spot prices [8] - **Strategy**: Maintain a bearish outlook in the medium to long term [7][11] Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2432 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] - **Market Outlook**: With the increase in new - season corn supply, the cost support for corn starch weakens. Downstream demand has decreased, inventory is high, and substitution from other starches exists, causing the starch market to decline along with corn [12] - **Strategy**: Maintain a bearish outlook in the medium to long term [7][11] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Corn 11 - month contract closed down with a total position of 692516 lots, down 4760 lots from before the holiday. Corn starch 11 - month contract also closed down with a total position of 134743 lots, down 15998 lots from before the holiday [16] - The net position of the top 20 in corn futures was - 30774, and for starch futures it was - 37899, with little change in net short positions [22] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn were 22700, and for corn starch were 8028 [28] Spot Price and Basis - As of October 9, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2318.24 yuan/ton, and the basis between the 11 - month active contract and the spot average was + 193 yuan/ton [33] - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, showing a stable - to - weak trend. The basis between the 11 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 268 yuan/ton [38] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 11 - 1 spread of corn was + 0 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was + 2 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [44] Futures Spread - The spread between the 11 - month starch and corn contracts was 307 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 446 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton from last week [53] Substitute Spread - As of September 25, 2025, the wheat - corn spread was 71.16 yuan/ton. In the 41st week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 268 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week [58] 3. Industrial Chain Corn - **Supply Side** - As of October 3, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 21.5 tons, down 11.80 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 11.7 tons, unchanged from last week. The inventory of the four northern ports was 71.4 tons, down 1.5 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 37.1 tons, up 14.70 tons week - on - week [48] - In August 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 4.00 tons, down 39.00 tons (90.70%) from the same period last year and 2.00 tons from last month [66] - As of October 9, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 24.49 days, down 0.72 days from last week, a 2.86% week - on - week and 6.06% year - on - year decline [70] - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 42447 million, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of July, the inventory of breeding sows was 4042 million, down 1 million month - on - month, 103.6% of the normal reserve of 3900 million [74] - As of September 25, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 74.11 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 236.57 yuan/head [77] - As of October 9, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 196 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was 224 yuan/ton in Henan, - 107 yuan/ton in Jilin, and 156 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [82] Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of October 8, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 233.4 tons, a 14.64% increase [86] - From October 2 to 8, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 54.45 tons, up 1.78 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 26.8 tons, up 1.22 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 51.81%, up 2.36% from last week [90] - As of October 8, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 119.1 tons, up 4.30 tons from last week, a 3.75% weekly, 4.57% monthly, and 31.17% year - on - year increase [90] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of October 10, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.72%, down 1.66% from 11.38% before the holiday. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined this week, being slightly above the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [93]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall corn production in Heilongjiang this year is slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023. The grain quality is better, especially with a high bulk density. The new - grain price is still weak. [13][12] - In the short - term (before November), the corn market is bearish; in the medium - term, the downside is limited, and there is a strong willingness to build inventories at 1900 - 1950 yuan/ton after drying. In the long - term, the upside is not optimistic due to the pending release of policy grain sources. Overall, the corn price is expected to be relatively stable, and policy guidance is crucial. [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Season Production Situation - **Sown Area**: The overall sown area in Heilongjiang decreased slightly year - on - year, with a 4% decline in the eastern region and some local areas having stable or increased areas. [14] - **Yield per Unit**: Excluding a small number of drought - affected plots, most areas saw an increase in yield per unit. In eastern Heilongjiang, the yield per unit was mostly 12 - 13 tons/ha this year, compared to 11 - 12 tons/ha last year. [14] - **Grain Quality**: The overall grain quality is better than last year, with a high bulk density (generally 710 - 720), and in Baoquanling, the bulk density is 740 - 750 with low toxin levels. [12] - **Production**: Slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023. [13] - **Planting Cost**: In eastern Heilongjiang, the average land rent this year is 12,000 yuan/ha, down from 13,000 yuan/ha last year. The total cost is about 18,000 yuan/ha, corresponding to a wet - grain price of 0.6 - 0.75 yuan/jin and a dried - grain price of 1520 - 1900 yuan/ton. [16] - **Opening Price**: The opening price of processing enterprises showed a high - to - low trend. The price of deep - processing enterprises dropped from 0.85 yuan/jin to 0.79 yuan/jin by September 24, and the overall new - grain price is still weak. [17] - **Grain - Selling and Acquisition Emotions**: Some farmers are eager to sell due to high temperatures, while traders and processors are not in a hurry to buy. Some farmers will hold back if the price is below 0.8 yuan/jin and will sell in December to repay loans. Harvesting will start comprehensively during the National Day holiday. [18] - **Answers to Questions**: Drought has no impact on production; the impact of increased production on prices is limited; the market previously traded the planting - cost - based port price at 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton; the bottom price of wet grain is expected to be 0.75 yuan/jin, corresponding to a port price of 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton. [23][22] Trade and Downstream Situation - **Market Outlook**: Short - term (before November) bearish; medium - term, limited downside with support at 1900 - 1950 yuan/ton after drying; long - term, limited upside due to policy grain sources. The overall price is expected to be stable, and policy guidance is key. [24] - **Profit and Development Direction of the Processing Industry**: The processing profit of the corn deep - processing industry has been poor this year, with starch processing at a near - break - even point and alcohol in continuous loss. The future development direction is to vertically expand the industrial chain, especially focusing on amino - acid products. [25] - **Inventory - Building Plan and Rhythm**: Short - term, passive inventory building; medium - term, increase inventory building when the price approaches the planting cost. Traders are more positive, while enterprises are more cautious and focus on the impact of storage policies. [26] - **Actual Use of Futures**: The corn basis - point pricing model is widely used but needs improvement. Corn delivery warehouses are more proficient in using futures tools, and large enterprises are exploring hedging services. Currently, the corn futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and participation will resume when the market provides an opportunity. [27] Research Thinking - **Macro - Level**: Focus on policy - regulation directions and intensities, such as policy storage, policy - grain auctions, and import policies. [29] - **Industry - Level**: Consider the transmission of industrial profits, inventory cycles (passive inventory building), and expectations, behaviors, and results. [29] - **Supply - Demand Rhythm**: Pay attention to the rhythm of grain selling, inventory building, port collection, and futures - spot trading. [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For corn, the report suggests maintaining a bearish outlook in the medium to long term. The USDA expects a record - high US corn production in the 2025/26 season and a seven - year high in ending stocks. With the progress of US corn harvest, supply pressure will increase. Domestically, new corn is coming onto the market, but downstream demand is weak, and processing enterprises' losses are intensifying, which restricts the price [8]. - For corn starch, the report also recommends a medium - to - long - term bearish view. The market is weak, and enterprises are in a loss state. Although pre - holiday demand has slightly improved and inventory has declined, the inventory is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing the market demand, restricting the price [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - Strategy: Maintain a bearish view in the medium to long term [7][11] - Market Review: This week, the corn futures closed slightly higher. The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2178 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - Market Outlook: The USDA report shows high US production and stocks. Domestic new corn is on the market, but demand is weak, and processing enterprises' losses are increasing [8] Corn Starch - Strategy: Maintain a bearish view in the medium to long term [11] - Market Review: Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher at a low level. The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous week [12] - Market Outlook: The market is weak, enterprises are in loss, inventory has declined but is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing demand [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - Corn: The November contract of corn futures fluctuated slightly higher, with a total position of 692,516 lots, down 119,319 lots from last week [16] - Corn Starch: The November contract of corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher, with a total position of 167,095 lots, down 41,035 lots from last week [16] Top 20 Net Position Changes - Corn: This week, the top 20 net position of corn futures was - 48,213, compared with - 4,758 last week, and the net short position increased [23] - Corn Starch: This week, the top 20 net position of starch futures was - 38,910, compared with - 43,805 last week, and the net short position decreased [23] Futures Warehouse Receipts - Corn: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 21,814 [29] - Corn Starch: The registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 8,189 [29] Spot Price and Basis - Corn: As of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,364.9 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active November contract and the spot average price was + 196 yuan/ton [35] - Corn Starch: The spot price in Jilin was 2,800 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,900 yuan/ton, with a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the November contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 320 yuan/ton [40] Futures Inter - month Spread - Corn: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was + 18 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [46] - Corn Starch: The 11 - 1 spread of starch was + 39 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [46] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 302 yuan/ton. In the 39th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 360 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton from last week [56] Substitute Spread - As of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,436.06 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2,364.9 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 71.16 yuan/ton. In the 39th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 265 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from last week [60] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - Supply - Port Inventory: As of September 19, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 30.8 tons, down 29.3 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 6.7 tons, up 6.7 tons from last week. The inventory of the four northern ports was 67.5 tons, down 5.4 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 22.4 tons, down 9.7 tons week - on - week [50] - Import: In August 2025, the import volume of ordinary corn was 40,000 tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons (90.70%) compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with last month [69] - Feed Enterprise Inventory: As of September 25, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.01 days, down 0.15 days from last week, a week - on - week decline of 0.57% and a year - on - year decline of 6.94% [73] Corn - Demand - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000, 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million [77] - Breeding Profit: As of September 19, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was - 24.44 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 199.31 yuan/head [81] - Processing Profit: As of September 25, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 165 yuan/ton; the corn alcohol processing profit was 25 yuan/ton in Henan, - 659 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 254 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [86] Corn Starch - Supply - Enterprise Inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.118 million tons, a decrease of 9.49% [90] - Production and Inventory: From September 18 to 24, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 534,600 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 260,500 tons, an increase of 11,400 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 50.36%, an increase of 2.2%. As of September 24, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.139 million tons, a decrease of 61,000 tons from last week, a weekly decline of 5.08%, a monthly decline of 13.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.85% [96] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of September 26, the implied volatility of the corn main 2511 contract was 10.41%, up 0.20% from 10.21% last week. The implied volatility fluctuated and rebounded this week, at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [99]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: With the approaching harvest season, the supply pressure of US corn is gradually increasing, although there are expectations of a downward adjustment in production due to mixed early - harvest reports. In the domestic market, new corn is coming onto the market, but downstream demand is weak, and deep - processing enterprises are facing increased losses, leading to a downward adjustment in purchase prices. The corn market maintains a bearish outlook [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The corn starch market is currently weak, and enterprises are in a loss state. Despite a decrease in inventory recently, the overall inventory remains high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch are significant, squeezing market demand. The starch market also maintains a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the active corn starch futures contract is 2474 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 63 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is 13 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [2]. - **Positions**: The futures position of the active yellow corn contract is 729,266 lots, a decrease of 17,708 lots; the futures position of the active corn starch contract is 172,607 lots, a decrease of 12,616 lots. The net long position of the top 20 corn futures holders is - 35,819 lots, a decrease of 14,837 lots; the net long position of the top 20 corn starch futures holders is - 38,499 lots, a decrease of 2,878 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 21,814 lots, a decrease of 2,000 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch are 8,250 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - **CBOT Corn**: The closing price of the active CBOT corn futures contract is 424 cents/bushel, down 1.75 cents/bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1,529,796 lots, an increase of 51,949 lots. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 18,075 lots, a decrease of 36,169 lots [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Corn Spot Price**: The average spot price of corn is 2364.9 yuan/ton, up 7.65 yuan/ton. The flat - hold price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The CIF price of imported corn is 1945.94 yuan/ton, up 6.39 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch Spot Price**: The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2560 yuan/ton, 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Sowing Area and Yield Forecast**: The predicted sowing area of corn in the US is 425.26 million hectares, an increase of 0.77 million hectares; the predicted yield is 131 million tons, an increase of 0 million tons. The predicted sowing area of corn in Brazil is 35.89 million hectares, an increase of 0 million hectares; the predicted yield is 22.6 million tons, an increase of 0 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The corn inventory at southern ports is 60.1 tons, a decrease of 5.5 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 211.8 tons, a decrease of 36.9 tons. The corn inventory at northern ports is 87 tons, a decrease of 53 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, a decrease of 10 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 15,940 tons, an increase of 1,440 tons [2]. - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 2927.2 tons, an increase of 99.9 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Feed and Processing Profit**: The sample feed corn inventory days are 26.16 days, a decrease of 0.75 days. The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the processing profit in Hebei is 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the processing profit in Jilin is - 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **开机率**: The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 50.31%, a decrease of 1.28%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 50.36%, an increase of 2.21% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 10%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.52%, a decrease of 0.1%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.36%, a decrease of 0.14%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.56%, an increase of 0.06% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of September 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country is 211.8 tons, a decrease of 9.49% [2]. - CBOT corn futures fell on Wednesday due to harvest pressure and weak soybean prices, while the corn 2511 contract rose 0.32% [2]. - The USDA report predicts that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season will reach 16.814 billion bushels, a record high, and the ending inventory will also reach a seven - year high [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Follow - Pay attention to the weekly corn consumption data from mysteel and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday, as well as the USDA monthly supply - demand report at 0:00 on the 13th [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, maintain a bearish outlook. The USDA's supply - demand report shows an increase in the estimated planting and harvest areas of US corn in the 2025/26 season, a decrease in the estimated yield per acre, and an overall increase in production, which is higher than analysts' average expectations. In the domestic market, although low trade - grain inventories support prices, factors such as imported corn auctions, wheat for feed, approaching new - corn harvest seasons in North and Northeast China, and weak downstream demand lead to a decline in purchase prices. However, the slightly higher opening prices of new - season corn in some areas support market sentiment. [8][9][10] - For corn starch, also maintain a bearish outlook. The raw - material corn is in a new - old alternation period. Some enterprises have new maintenance due to insufficient raw - material supply, and the industry's operating rate is low. Although demand has slightly improved and inventory pressure has declined, the overall inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch squeeze the market demand for corn starch. [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA's report shows an increase in US corn production. Domestically, new - corn harvest is approaching, and downstream demand is weak, but the slightly higher opening prices of new - season corn support sentiment. [10] - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2463 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The raw - material supply is in an alternation period, the operating rate is low, demand has slightly improved, and inventory has decreased, but it is still high, and substitution products squeeze the market. [14] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Maintain a bearish outlook for both corn and corn starch. [9][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The 11 - month contract of corn futures closed lower with a total position of 811,835 lots, a decrease of 39,928 lots from the previous week. The 11 - month contract of corn starch futures also closed lower with a total position of 208,130 lots, a decrease of 9,924 lots from the previous week. [20] - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 4,758, and the net short position decreased compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 43,805, and the net short position also decreased. [26] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 30,658, and those of corn starch were 8,330. [32] - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of September 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 11 - month contract and the spot average price was + 192 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2800 yuan/ton and in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, with a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 337 yuan/ton. [37][42] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 10 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 15 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period. [48] - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: The spread between the 11 - month contracts of starch and corn was 295 yuan/ton. In the 38th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 456 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. [58] - **Substitute Spread**: As of September 18, 2025, the spot price of wheat was 2429.61 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 69.02 yuan/ton. In the 38th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 257 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton from the previous week. [63] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Corn - **Supply - Side: Port Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 60.1 tons, a decrease of 5.50 tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 72.9 tons, a decrease of 21.6 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 32.1 tons, a decrease of 1.60 tons week - on - week. [52] - **Supply - Side: Monthly Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's ordinary corn import volume was 4.00 tons, a decrease of 39.00 tons (90.70%) from the same period last year and a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous month. [71] - **Supply - Side: Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 18, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.16 days, a decrease of 0.75 days from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.23%. [75] - **Demand - Side: Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million. [79] - **Demand - Side: Processing Profit**: As of September 18, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 162 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 155 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 692 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 284 yuan/ton. [88] 3.4 Industrial Chain Situation - Corn Starch - **Supply - Side: Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 17, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 5.91%. [92] - **Supply - Side: Starch Enterprise Operation and Inventory**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 517,200 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 249,100 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 48.15%, an increase of 1.01% from the previous week. As of September 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week, a weekly decrease of 2.12%, a monthly decrease of 8.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.46%. [96] 3.5 Option Market Analysis As of September 19, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 10.21%, an increase of 1.13% from 9.08% the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and rebounded, at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities. [99]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research on corn and corn starch, released on September 15, 2025, by the Commodity Research Institute [2] Group 2: Data Futures Market - For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2156 with a decrease of 11 (-0.51%), C2605 at 2229 (-8, -0.36%), C2509 at 2255 (-1, -0.04%); for corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2473 (-14, -0.57%), CS2605 at 2571 (-10, -0.39%), CS2509 at 2588 (101, 3.90%) [3] - The trading volume and open interest of most contracts showed significant changes, such as C2601's trading volume increasing by 73.58% and open interest by 1.05% [3] Spot Market and Basis - Corn spot prices varied by region, with today's quotes in Qinggang at 2230 (up 10), Jiamuji Biochemical at 2180 (unchanged), etc; starch spot prices also differed, like Longfeng at 2700 (unchanged), Zhongliang at 2750 (unchanged) [3] - The basis of corn and starch also showed different values in different regions and contracts [3] Spread - Corn inter - delivery spreads like C01 - C05 was -73 (-3), starch inter - delivery spreads like CS01 - CS05 was -98 (-4), and cross - variety spreads like CS09 - C09 was 333 (102) [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Corn - The US corn report lowered the yield per unit, and there is still room for the US corn to rebound; China has imposed tariffs on US corn and sorghum, but the import profit of foreign corn is high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2164 yuan [5] - Northern port flat - price is stable, Northeast corn spot is strong, while North China's corn spot is weak due to increased supply, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has decreased; wheat in North China can still substitute for corn [5][7] - Domestic breeding demand is weak, downstream feed enterprises have high inventory, and corn spot is stable in the short term; with new - season corn about to be listed in large quantities, the corn spot price is expected to fall [7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, Shandong corn spot is stable, and starch in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, while Northeast starch spot is weak [8] - This week, corn starch inventory decreased to 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week (monthly decrease of 6.98%, year - on - year increase of 40.3%); starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking [8] - In the long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state; 01 starch is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel; it is advisable to wait and see for 01 corn [10] Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 5: Corn Option Strategies - Enterprises with physical goods can close out short positions of corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell at high prices and conduct rolling operations [14] Group 6: Related Graphs - The report includes graphs of various data such as corn spot prices in different regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract spreads [16][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on corn is "oscillating." Before any significant policy changes, given the expectation of selling pressure from the new - season bumper harvest and the decline in planting costs, the C01 contract is expected to have some downside potential. The trading strategy suggests a short - position for the C01 contract and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes multiple factors affecting the corn market, including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It concludes that in the absence of obvious policy changes, the corn market will oscillate due to the new - season bumper harvest selling pressure and the decrease in planting costs [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In the short - term, it is bullish; in the medium - term, it is bearish. Old - crop supply is tightening, new - crop has not been widely harvested. The 25/26 planting cost continues to decline, with an estimated port - collection price of 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area is slightly decreasing, but the yield per unit is expected to be good, maintaining an overall bumper - harvest expectation. Imported grain policy restrictions continue, reducing imported grain supply [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral to bullish. In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 33.1%. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short - term, supporting feed demand, but national policies may control pig inventories and weights, affecting long - term supply. The wheat - corn price difference is moving out of the substitution range. Feed enterprises have limited space to further compress inventories and have a rigid demand for replenishing corn stocks. However, the downstream demand of deep - processing is poor, with processing profits in the red, forcing the operating rate to a low level and reducing deep - processing demand [3]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. North - port inventories have been continuously decreasing to a low level, while south - port grain inventories have increased this week. Feed enterprise inventories have declined to a historical low, and deep - processing corn inventories have also reached a low level [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is at a neutral level [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. Pig farming remains profitable, broiler farming profits are declining, and layer farming is in the red. Deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are deeply in the red [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Considering the planting cost, the valuation of new - season corn is moderately high [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the corn main contract, the national average price, the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port, the market price at Shekou Port, the spot price of corn starch in Shandong, the position of the corn futures contracts, and the spreads between different contracts [5][7][11]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Port and Transportation**: North - port corn arrivals and the remaining vehicles for deep - processing in Shandong are presented. The Shekou - Jinzhou price difference and the shipping volume of corn from the four northern ports are also shown. North - port inventories have decreased to a low level, while south - port grain inventories have increased [20][22][35]. - **Imported Grains**: In July, corn imports were at a low level, while sorghum and barley imports increased [27]. - **Feed Industry**: Feed enterprise inventory days and monthly feed production are presented. The livestock and poultry industry has short - term high - inventory support for feed demand, but policies may affect long - term supply [42][44]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming**: Pig prices are falling, and pig weights are at a high level. Broiler farming profits are declining, and layer farming is in the red [51][55][60]. - **Deep - Processing Industry**: Deep - processing corn consumption has slightly increased, but inventories have declined to a low level. Starch processing profits are in the red, and inventories are high. Alcohol production has a seasonal increase in the operating rate, but processing profits are in the red. The wheat - corn price difference has widened, moving out of the substitution range, and flour demand is weak [64][72][93]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - The September report shows a slight downward adjustment of the corn stock - to - consumption ratio of major exporting countries in 2025/26. Global corn production and its distribution are presented, along with the export sales of US corn, including total and China - bound sales [113][117][120].