Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates a continuous decline in pig prices, with the average price falling below 14 yuan/kg in August and reaching a three-year low of 12.82 yuan/kg by September 19. The government is committed to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices, which will shape the industry's future dynamics [1][2][3]. Industry Supply and Demand Performance - In August, pig prices continued to decline, with average prices dropping below 14 yuan/kg. By September 19, the average price of live pigs was 12.82 yuan/kg, marking the lowest level in three years [1][2]. - The supply side saw a significant increase in market pressure due to a concentration of sales from smallholders, leading to a notable price drop. High temperatures in August also suppressed consumer demand, resulting in weak sales [2]. - The number of breeding sows was reported at 40.42 million in July, showing a slight decrease. Data indicates a mixed trend in breeding sow inventory, with some samples showing growth while others indicate a decline [2]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - A meeting held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the government's commitment to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices. Clear regulatory targets were set for breeding stock and slaughter weights, with tighter funding and environmental measures [3]. - The short-term impact of these policies may increase supply pressure and lead to further price declines, but the long-term outlook suggests a potential recovery in pig prices by 2026 as inefficient production capacity is eliminated [3]. Future Market Outlook - The ongoing capacity regulation will remain a central theme in the industry, with expectations for the elimination of outdated production capacity. High-quality producers are likely to maintain profitability and benefit from improved margins post-regulation [4]. - The industry valuation is currently below historical averages, indicating a safety margin for investments. Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), Tian Kang Biological (002100.SZ), and Shennong Group (605296.SH) [4]. Sales Data of Listed Companies - In August, major companies reported a decline in average sales prices, with Muyuan Foods at 13.51 yuan/kg, Wens at 13.90 yuan/kg, Zhengbang Technology at 13.75 yuan/kg, and New Hope at 13.54 yuan/kg, reflecting changes of -5.52%, -4.66%, -3.91%, and -6.23% respectively [5]. - The sales volume for August showed a recovery, with Muyuan Foods selling 700,000 pigs, Wens 325,000, New Hope 134,000, and Zhengbang 67,000, representing increases of 10.17%, 2.56%, 2.71%, and a decrease of -3.67% respectively [5]. - The average weight of pigs sold also decreased, with Muyuan at 125.29 kg, Wens at 109.95 kg, and New Hope at 95.07 kg, indicating a continued trend of reduced weights in the industry [5].

Core Insights - The livestock sector is experiencing significant capital inflow, with the Livestock ETF (159865) seeing nearly 1 billion yuan in net inflow over the past 10 days, with approximately 60% exposure to pig farming [1] - The average price of live pigs in China has decreased to 12.79 yuan/kg, down 3.55% week-on-week, indicating a continued downward trend in pig prices due to oversupply in the market [1] - A meeting held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on September 16 emphasized the need to reduce the breeding sow population by about 1 million heads, aiming to lower the total to approximately 39.5 million heads [1] - Recent measures to curb overproduction in the pig industry are expected to raise the price center of domestic pigs in the medium to long term, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency in the industry [1] - The livestock sector may be entering a favorable allocation phase, with attention on the marginal changes in the Livestock ETF (159865) [1] Investment Opportunities - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Connect C (012725) as potential investment options [2] - The "pig content" in the Livestock ETF is approximately 60%, indicating the weight of stocks related to pig farming, feed, and animal health within the index [2]

Core Insights - The live pig market has experienced fluctuations in prices, with a peak of 15.3 yuan/kg in early July, followed by a decline due to increased supply and weak demand [1] - As of September 22, the average price of live pigs was 12.67 yuan/kg, with regional variations [1] - The breeding sow inventory remains stable, with slight fluctuations, indicating no significant reduction in production capacity [2] Price Trends - Live pig prices surged in early July but have since declined due to increased supply and weak consumer demand [1] - The futures market for live pigs saw a peak in July, followed by a downward trend, with the main contract dropping to 12,770 yuan/ton by September 19 [1] Breeding Inventory - The national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.42 million heads as of July 2025, showing minimal change [2] - Profitability in pig sales has remained positive, preventing a significant reduction in breeding capacity [2] Production Efficiency - Improvements in breeding techniques and management have led to increased production efficiency, with the potential for further enhancements through advanced technologies [3] Supply Pressure - An increase in the supply of live pigs is expected from September to November 2025, with supply levels higher than in previous years [4] - The average weight of pigs at market is also anticipated to exceed historical levels, contributing to supply pressure [4] Policy and External Factors - Domestic policies aimed at regulating pig production and managing supply are crucial for market dynamics [5] - External factors, such as import tariffs and seasonal disease risks, may also impact the market [6] Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for the live pig market remains weak due to high supply and limited demand [6] - A potential seasonal rebound in prices is expected in the fourth quarter, but overall supply pressure will continue to limit price increases [6]

消息面上，生猪产能调控超预期，9月16日生猪产能调控企业座谈会召开。此前包括牧原股份、新希 望、大北农等大型猪企，均在今年8月底至9月初的投资者交流活动中强调会响应国家的母猪产能调控政 策。 数据显示，截至2025年8月29日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为牧原股份(002714)、温 氏股份(300498)、海大集团(002311)、新希望(000876)、梅花生物(600873)、大北农(002385)、圣农发展 (002299)、生物股份(600201)、天康生物(002100)、唐人神(002567)，前十大权重股合计占比65.57%。 国金证券指出，政策端持续发力，9月16日生猪养殖行业仍有座谈会推动产能去化落地，年前政策端主 动去产能或持续推进，利好板块去产能逻辑和明年生猪价格中枢。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间， 近期行业产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏 损下行业产能去化，目前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优秀的中枢利 润，且非洲猪瘟之后行业的快速扩张中，仍有大量企业是低质量扩充产能，行业成本方差依旧巨 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Pig Industry**: The decline in pig prices has slowed down due to the support of the state's purchase and storage policies and the pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals. However, the supply in September is increasing, and the high weight of pigs restricts the rebound of prices. In the medium - and long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase, and the price outlook is not optimistic, except for a possible relative strengthening in the second half of next year [4][54]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern in the futures market. In the short term, the support for egg prices is expected to weaken, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the culling of laying hens and environmental protection policies [5][84]. - **Corn Industry**: During the new corn listing period, the futures price faces pressure to rebound. In the short term, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure due to the concentrated listing. In the long - term, the cost support has decreased, and the price fluctuation center may move down, but attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [6][106]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the national spot price was 12.63 yuan/kg, down 0.63 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.93 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan/kg. The futures price of pig 2511 was 12,825 yuan/ton, down 430 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - contract basis was 105 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from last week [4][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Average weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.13 kg to 128.45 kg; the fat - to - standard price difference remained unchanged at 0.39 yuan. The daily average slaughter rate increased by 0.34% to 31.83%, and the daily average slaughter volume increased by 1,438 heads to 131,717 heads. The frozen product inventory rate increased by 0.26% to 17.91%. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 9.67 yuan/head, down 30.79 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 222.56 yuan/head, down 27.75 yuan/head [16]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased slowly from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance has improved, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [19]. 3.2 Egg Industry 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.66 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.59 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main egg 2511 contract was 3,112 yuan/500 kg, up 72 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 308 yuan/500 kg, up 78 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][84]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - The national weekly utilization rate of hatching eggs for laying hens was 64%, unchanged from last week. The number of culled laying hens was 17.61 million, an increase of 130,000 from last week. The production and circulation inventories increased by 0.03 and 0.07 days respectively to 0.94 and 1.06 days [60]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - opened laying hens in September corresponded to the relatively high replenishment in May 2025. The culling of laying hens was normal, and the overall egg supply was sufficient. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down [84]. 3.3 Corn Industry 3.3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main corn 2511 contract was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 132 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][106]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - The corn arrival volume at the four northern ports decreased by 216,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The inventory at the northern and southern ports decreased by 530,000 tons and 55,000 tons respectively to 870,000 tons and 601,000 tons. The opening rate of deep - processing enterprises increased by 1.01% to 48.15% [91]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The old - crop corn in the market is in limited supply, and new - crop corn has started to be listed in some areas in the Northeast. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. In the long - term, the corn planting in the 25/26 season is stable, and the cost support has decreased [106].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, has initiated a capacity regulation meeting for the pig industry, emphasizing a reduction in production by 1 million pigs by the end of the year among major pig farming enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Regulation - The meeting highlighted a focus on "controlling breeding and nurturing" and detailed the tasks for reducing breeding capacity among major pig farming enterprises [1]. - A series of financial measures will accompany the capacity regulation to support the industry [1]. - The meeting called for leading enterprises to take the initiative in controlling production capacity, including reducing the number of breeding sows and lowering the volume of pigs for market [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Since late July, pig prices have been on a downward trend, with the futures index hitting a yearly low in late September [1]. - The recovery of domestic pig production capacity post-African swine fever has been primarily driven by leading enterprises, with 23 listed pig companies selling 108 million pigs in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.86% [1]. - The proportion of these companies' sales to the national total rose to 29.5%, up 7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - The current inventory of breeding sows remains stable, with a slight decrease of 0.02% month-on-month but an increase of 0.02% year-on-year, indicating a slow process of capacity reduction [2]. - The industry is experiencing pressure from supply, with larger weights of pigs leading to increased market supply and a generally pessimistic market sentiment [3]. - Demand is supported by seasonal factors, such as cooler weather in the north and pre-holiday stocking, but overall demand remains limited [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing stricter measures to control pig production capacity due to ongoing supply pressures and declining pig prices, which have reached a new low since 2021 [1][2]. Supply Side - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that as of July 2025, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, which is 103.6% of the normal level [2]. - The third quarter saw a month-on-month increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with expectations for continued high slaughter volumes [2]. - Major pig farming companies are responding to the pressure by planning to reduce production, with Muyuan planning to cut 130,000 breeding sows by the end of the year, totaling a reduction of 320,000 heads [2][3]. - Current pig prices have dropped below 13 yuan per kilogram, leading to increased production cuts and intensified policy controls [2][3]. Demand Side - Despite being a traditional peak demand season, the demand for pigs remains weak, with market participants exhibiting a cautious attitude [3]. - The ongoing decline in pig prices has led to panic selling in the market, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [3]. - Lower production costs for large-scale farming enterprises are affecting the pace of capacity reduction, making it difficult for pig prices to find support [3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a weak state in the short term, with supply pressures likely to manifest in the fourth quarter [3][4]. - The key to stabilizing pig prices lies in the reduction of slaughter volumes, which may not be realized until the third quarter of 2026 [4]. - Seasonal demand during upcoming holidays may provide temporary support for slaughter rates, but overall, the market is anticipated to face challenges due to excess supply [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the swine breeding industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The meeting held on September 16 aimed to regulate swine production capacity, involving major industry players such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe [4]. - The swine breeding industry is experiencing a "reverse involution," with policies focusing on capacity control, reduction of breeding sows, and limiting the weight of pigs at market [4]. - As of July 2025, the breeding sow inventory was at 40.42 million heads, slightly down from a peak of 40.80 million heads in December 2024, indicating a potential for further capacity reduction [4]. - The scale and concentration of swine breeding in China are increasing, with a projected scale rate exceeding 70% by 2024, and the industry concentration ratios (CR3, CR5, CR10) showing gradual improvement [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the swine breeding industry, highlighting the government's focus on controlling production capacity and the need for strategic adjustments among leading enterprises [4]. Production Capacity Control - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has set specific targets for reducing the breeding sow population and controlling the weight of pigs for market, with a goal to lower the average weight to 115 kg [4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the breeding industry is still at a historically low valuation, suggesting that there are opportunities for investment as capacity reduction expectations grow [4]. - The long-term outlook indicates that leading companies with scale advantages and integrated supply chains are likely to increase their market share as industry concentration improves [4].

【生猪产能调控超预期！发改委明确#生猪头部企业要带头减产#】上海证券报记者从多个信源获悉，农 业农村部畜牧兽医局16日会同国家发展和改革委员会召开生猪产能调控企业座谈会，牧原股份、温氏股 份、双胞胎等多家龙头生猪养殖企业参会，就产能调控的落实情况进行分析和讨论。 据悉，此次调控产能还配套了一系列的财政金融措施，如严控关于生猪产能扩张的信贷投放、减少刺激 生猪产能增长的各类补贴等。 一家参会企业负责人透露，会上明确要求头部企业带头控制产能，包括调减能繁母猪、降低出栏量、出 栏体重控制在120公斤左右等。"头部企业也下达了任务，2026年能繁母猪量要同比减少。"上述负责人 介绍。 "此前调控重心主要集中在控制出栏均重、不得增加产能，这次是国家发展和改革委员会首次明确调减 能繁母猪存栏量，调控措施超过市场预期。"行业某资深人士告诉记者，预计随着各类措施落地，行业 调降产能可取得一定成效。 行业数据监测显示，三季度以来，猪价持续走低。9月18日，国内生猪外三元价格跌至12.93元/公斤， 创近一年新低，这一价格已经低于部分上市猪企的现金养殖成本。 此前农业农村部等有关部门已多次召开生猪产能调控座谈会，要求严格落实产能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The livestock ETF (159865) has seen a significant inflow of 162 million shares, indicating strong market interest in livestock assets [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, has outlined specific measures for pig production capacity regulation, emphasizing its importance in the broader price control system aimed at boosting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] Group 1: Policy and Regulation - A meeting was held on September 16, 2025, to discuss the implementation of production capacity regulation for pig farming, with clear deadlines and penalties for non-compliance [1] - The meeting highlighted that pig production capacity regulation is a crucial part of the pig price control system, which is integral to the overall price control framework [1] - The primary goal of these regulations is to enhance the CPI, with pork being a significant contributor to CPI fluctuations [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The policy focus for the year has been on "controlling production and nurturing growth," with the recent meeting further detailing the "controlling breeding" tasks assigned to various farming entities [1] - Major companies, specifically the top 25 groups, are required to reduce production by 1 million pigs by the end of the year, while other farming entities will be managed through coordinated departmental efforts [1] - Non-compliance with these production targets will result in penalties such as the suspension of subsidies and credit [1] - Overall, the meeting signifies a potential acceleration in the reduction of industry production capacity, suggesting that the livestock sector may be entering a favorable investment phase [1]