1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Based on sow and piglet data, there may still be a slight increase in hog slaughter volume by December, and with ample supply, it's difficult for hog prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference exists, which may enhance farmers' willingness to increase weight. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if so, hog prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. One could consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spreads fluctuated and adjusted. With the weakness of the spot market, the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and hog prices fluctuated weakly [13]. - **区域价差**: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable [15]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may enhance the weight - increasing willingness of scattered farmers if it does [17]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [21]. - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was in a slight loss state [23]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [25]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of July was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [27]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows showed a weak trend. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction [29]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the volume of hogs to be slaughtered in February next year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [33]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in July was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. In terms of frozen products, the market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on hog prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35]. 3.5 Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic hog prices is relatively limited [38].

Report Information - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, in September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, a 3.92% increase from the actual output in August, and the daily average increase was 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. In the long term, the pig slaughter before the Spring Festival may still show a slight increase. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, the fattening cost is still low, and the current second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The overall supply - demand is loose, and the price is still weak. In the futures market, the supply of pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. Although the supply - demand margin of the 2511 and 2601 contracts may improve, they are mainly weak due to the current large spot supply pressure [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 18th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, and fluctuated downwards, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,965 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,830 yuan/ton, a 1.72% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 13,438 lots to 247,934 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 18th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.78 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] 2. Industry News - As of September 11, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 54 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 45 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.8 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 63 yuan/head [8][10] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of September 11, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 394 yuan/head, a decrease of 32 yuan/head from the previous week [13] - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of September 11, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.13 yuan/jin, a weekly decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin [13] - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 13.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 13.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week [13] - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of September 11, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.40%, a 0.13 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.15 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The weekly operating rate fluctuated between 31.20% and 31.71% [13] - **National Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of September 11, the national average slaughter weight of pigs was 128.32 kg, a 0.09 - kg increase from the previous week, a 0.07% increase month - on - month, and a 2.36 - kg increase from the same period last year, a 1.84% increase year - on - year [13]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report" [2] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure in the pig market remains high, and the subsequent spot prices are expected to be weak. Futures prices are also under pressure and are expected to trend downward [4][7] - The decline in futures prices is mainly due to the expected supply pressure, and the far - month contracts are affected by capacity changes. Although the current price is low, there is still a certain downward pressure [7] Group 4: Price and Profit Data Summary Spot Prices - The average spot price of pigs today is 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions have generally declined [4] Futures Prices - Futures prices of various contracts have mostly declined, such as LH01 down 180 to 13330, LH03 down 150 to 12855 [4] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices are 259 yuan, down 32 from last week; sow prices are 1590 yuan, down 2 from last week [4] Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - raising profit is 16.84 yuan/head, down 15.39 from yesterday; profit from purchasing piglets is - 161.93 yuan/head, down 13.53 from yesterday [4] Contract Spreads - Spreads between different contracts have changed, such as LH7 - 9 down 150 to 1165, LH9 - 1 up 180 to - 345 [4] Slaughter Data - The slaughter volume is 149450 heads, an increase of 842 from yesterday [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short near - month contracts on rallies - Arbitrage: Reverse spread on LH15 - Options: Hold off on trading [8]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2511 合约低开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 13290 元/吨，最低 13120 元/吨，收盘报 13275 元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One can consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On September 12, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, compared with 745 yuan/ton on September 5 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated weakly [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price difference was relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The spread between fat and standard pigs fluctuated weakly, which would increase the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The spread between fresh and frozen No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - performance of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit still existed, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million at the end of July, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. According to Yongyi Consulting, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month in August, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. According to My steel, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month in August, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market increased [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (the previous value was + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the number of slaughtered live pigs in February next year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 11 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 ＃summary＃ 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，10 日生猪主力 2511 合约小幅低开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 13400 元/吨，最低 13210 元/吨，收盘报 13315 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply pressure of live pigs eases slightly at the beginning of the month, and the spot price fluctuates and rebounds. The 2511 and 2601 futures contracts are in the peak demand season, with supply increasing slightly and demand increasing relatively more. The current spot price stabilizes and rebounds, and the short - term downside space may be relatively limited, mainly following the spot price to fluctuate and rebound [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: On the 3rd, the main 2511 contract of live pig futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated narrowly and declined, closing with a negative line. The highest was 13,600 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,510 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,550 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 384 lots to 180,527 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 13.97 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Comments**: In September, the slaughter volume of live pigs may continue to increase, and the utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high, with still existing slaughter pressure. However, since August, the overall slaughter enthusiasm has been strong, the rhythm has been fast, there has been overselling in some areas, and the slaughter weight has declined. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs may still maintain a slight increase. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has slightly widened, the fattening cost is still low, and there is an expectation of low - price second - fattening entry. At the beginning of September, universities in various regions started school one after another, and the centralized procurement of canteens at the beginning of the month boosted the market. In addition, the weather continued to cool in some areas, and the terminal consumption of residents may increase. The orders of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased, the slaughter progress was relatively fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased. On September 3rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 149,800 heads, an increase of 12,000 heads from the previous day and an increase of 80,000 heads from a week ago [9] 2. Industry News - As of August 21st, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 57.6 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [10] 3. Data Overview - On August 21st, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head from the previous week [19] - In the week of August 21st, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.675 million heads, an increase of 41,500 heads from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 2.54%; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 140,238 heads, an increase of 1,792 heads from the previous week, with an average daily increase of 1.29% [19] - The planned slaughter volume of live pigs of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% compared with July, with a significant increase in slaughter volume [19] - As of the week of August 21st, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [19]

Core Insights - The significant decline in live pig futures prices reflects market expectations regarding the pork industry [1] - The future trend of pig prices remains uncertain, influenced by various market factors [1] - The impact of African swine fever on the industry is currently minimal, suggesting resilience in the market [1] Group 1 - The sharp drop in live pig futures indicates a bearish sentiment among investors [1] - Market expectations are shaped by supply and demand dynamics, as well as external factors affecting the pork industry [1] - The resilience of the industry against African swine fever suggests that current biosecurity measures are effective [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The core view is that the pig slaughter volume has decreased, and the futures and spot prices are oscillating. The investment view is neutral, with cautious second - fattening demand, stable supply, cost support at the bottom, and the market likely to oscillate at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Short - term bearish, long - term bullish. The inventory and performance of sows capable of reproduction are steadily recovering. Theoretical calculations suggest that future supply will continue to increase, with greater pressure in the fourth quarter. However, the state is optimizing production capacity and guiding weight reduction, which is beneficial for the long - term market [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. The utilization rate of pens for second - fattening has decreased, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening is low. Seasonal temperature drop and pre - holiday stocking demand have led to a seasonal improvement in terminal consumption [3]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. The inventory rates of slaughterhouses and frozen products are at low levels compared to the same period [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis and monthly spread oscillated at a low level this week [3]. - **Profit**: Neutral. The breeding profit has turned slightly negative [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, with limited downside space [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. Domestically, multiple significant stimulus policies have been introduced, including fiscal policies to expand domestic demand and a moderately loose monetary policy, which are helpful for boosting long - term pork demand [3]. - **Investment View**: Neutral. Second - fattening demand is cautious, supply is stable, there is cost support at the bottom, and the market may oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach, and pay attention to second - fattening demand and feed prices; for arbitrage, also wait and see [3]. 3.2 Pig Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: The report presents price data of Henan standard pigs, fat pigs, piglets, and first - three - grade white - striped pigs from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Production Capacity Scale**: It shows the inventory data of sample sows capable of reproduction, including inventory volume, month - on - month and year - on - year changes, as well as relevant data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the number of newly - born healthy piglets and commodity pig slaughter numbers in five - province samples, and survival rates in pigsties and fattening [11][13][23]. - **Commodity Pig Inventory Structure**: It includes the inventory proportion data of large pigs (90 - 140kg), medium pigs (50 - 90kg), and small pigs (7 - 50kg) from 2021 - 2025 [28]. - **Price Spread and Weight Data**: It shows the standard - fat price spread, north - south price spread, average slaughter weight, and average weight after slaughter [33]. - **Leading Enterprise Slaughter Data**: It presents the monthly slaughter volume data of leading enterprises such as Muyuan, Wenshi, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Tangrenshen from 2021 - 2025 [42]. - **Slaughter Situation**: It includes daily slaughter volume, slaughterhouse开工率, fresh - sales rate, and inventory rate of slaughterhouses, as well as white - striped pork wholesale volume in Xinfadi Market, arrival volume in Nanhuanqiao and Shanghai Xijiao markets, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pork [49][56]. - **Profit and Cost Data**: It shows self - breeding and self - fattening profit, profit from purchasing piglets, pig - grain ratio, and fattening pig feed price [58]. 3.3 Pig Capital - related Data The report shows the basis data of 03, 05, 07, and 09 contracts, and the spread data between different contracts such as 03 - 05, 03 - 09, 05 - 07, and 05 - 09 from 2022 - 2025 [64][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report's view on the pig market is that it will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce pig weights and support pig prices to some extent. If farmers continue to reduce pig weights or keep them stable, pig prices may adjust oscillatively, which is somewhat favorable for the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Summary by Directory Market Dynamics - On August 26, there were 430 registered pig futures warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs. The main pig futures contract (LH2511) added 241 lots today, with a position of about 70,300 lots. The highest price was 13,895 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,860 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter will generally increase oscillatively in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatively. The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic is that the breeding end has reduced weights, which is beneficial for the future market; the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in the number of pigs for slaughter in the future, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs [2] Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding end), and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weights and support pig prices. If the breeding end continues to reduce weights or keep the weights stable, pig prices may adjust oscillatively, which is beneficial for the November contract to some extent. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Market Overview - On August 26, 2025, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.66% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 13.56 yuan/kg and 13.57 yuan/kg respectively, with decreases of 0.15 yuan/kg (1.09%) and 0.05 yuan/kg (0.37%). Among the futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts all declined, with decreases ranging from 5 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton and decline rates from 0.04% to 0.94%. The main basis in Henan was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 50% from the previous day [5]