农产品日报 | 2025-06-18 出栏略有减少，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13815元/吨，较前交易日变动+35.00元/吨，幅度+0.25%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.28元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+465，较前交易日变动-35；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.63元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH09+815，较前交易日变动+15；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.98元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+165，较前交易日变动-35。 据农业农村部监测，6月17日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.83，与昨天持平，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数为112.86， 与昨天持平。截至今日14:00时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.23元/公斤，比昨天下降0.7%；牛肉63.54 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；羊肉59.46元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；鸡蛋7.25元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡16.89 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.8%。 市场分析 综 ...

生猪产业日报 2025-06-17 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 13815 | 35 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 78433 | 927 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 750 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -11587 | -465 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14200 | 200 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 14100 | 10 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.13」 生猪市场周报 政策利好，期价反弹 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：059586778969 业务咨询 添加客服 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：生猪价格反弹，主力合约周度上涨2.45%。 行情展望：供应端，今日出栏节奏正常，出栏均重下降。二三季度对应母猪产能处于增产周期，中期 供应压力趋增。需求端，高温抑制采购猪肉意愿，终端走货速度放慢，屠宰厂开工率连续回落，消费 进入季节性淡季，难以为价格提供有利支撑。总体来说，不鼓励二育、收储政策提振市场情绪，加之 饲料原料上涨提振，生猪期货价格短期反弹，但需求疲弱抑制现货价格涨幅，基差快速走弱，或将抑 制期货盘面上方空间，预计生猪价格震荡运行。 策略建议：暂时观望。 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货反弹 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 生猪价格反弹，主力合约周度上涨2.45%。 4 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货净持仓净空增加 期货仓单750张 图2、生 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by September, and the pig price is prone to fall and difficult to rise under abundant supply. The reduction of the slaughter weight by farmers will put pressure on the pig price, but the strength of the price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs needs attention. The LH2509 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Against the background of falling spot prices, the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted weakly. When the pig price accelerated its decline in the later part of the week, the decline of the LH2509 contract was limited [2]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: Against the background of weak spot prices, the spreads of some contracts showed reverse arbitrage trends [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: The decrease in slaughter volume and the fall in pig prices indicate that the supply exceeds the demand, leading to the decline of pig prices [14]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price in Henan region dropped significantly [16]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: The price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs adjusted strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it may weaken the farmers' willingness to reduce the weight of pigs [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Difference**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen price difference for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - **Farming Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly positive [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight decreased slowly, and it will take some time to release the previous inventory pressure [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of April, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a flat month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows continued to increase in May [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows was weak this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in May but remained at a low level [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In May, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, corresponding to a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: The price of 15kg piglets continued to fall this week, and the price of 50kg binary sows was stable with a weak trend [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The frozen product market gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices changed from bullish to neutral - bearish [36]. 5. Import End In April 2025, the pork import volume was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively small [39].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 06 月 09 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，6 日生猪主力 2509 合约 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main reasons are that the piglet data indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter volume by September, leading to abundant supply and downward pressure on prices. Also, as pig prices fall, the optimal slaughter weight decreases, forcing farmers to reduce pig weights, which further weighs on prices. Meanwhile, the LH2509 contract is currently at a relatively reasonable price level and is recommended to be observed for now [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: The market believes that farmers are likely to reduce pig weights in June and July, which is negative for the current situation but positive for the future. Therefore, the main contract (LH2509) has been adjusted with a slight upward trend. As of May 30, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 945 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: Driven by the expectation of pig weight reduction, the prices of far - month contracts are fluctuating with a slight upward trend [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: Under the drive of the expectation of pig weight reduction, there is a reverse spread trend for the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: This week, affected by the adjustment of the slaughter rhythm and the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, the slaughter volume first decreased and then increased, and the pig price mainly fluctuated and adjusted [14]. - **Regional Spread**: Henan remains a high - price area [16]. - **Fat - Standard Spread**: The fat - standard spread is oscillating and adjusting [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Hair - White Spread**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Spread**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen spread for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight continues to decline, and the pressure of previous inventory accumulation is gradually released [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of April was 40.38 million, unchanged from the previous month and up 1.3% year - on - year. Data from Yongyi Consulting and My steel also show an increase in the inventory of reproductive sows in their sample areas [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows has been running weakly this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in April [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In April, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month (previous value +0.94%), indicating a continuous increase in the number of pigs to be slaughtered in October this year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets continued to fall, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was running weakly and steadily [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, up 0.5% month - on - month and 20% year - on - year. The market for frozen products has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices has changed from positive to neutral and negative [36]. 5. Import End - In April 2025, the pork import volume was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2509 合约小幅低开后震荡下跌，尾盘收阴，最高 14015 元/吨，最低 13735 元/吨， ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 15 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 期货方面，14 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 14 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 【生猪日报】出栏方面稳定 价格窄幅震荡 | 生猪价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 今 日 | | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.11 | 15.11 | 0.00 | 山 西 | 14.84 | 14.84 | 0 | | 湖北（0） | 14.61 | 14.65 | -0.04 | 辽 宁 | 14.61 | 14.61 | 0 | | 安徽（300） | 15.19 | 15.23 | -0.04 | 吉 林 | 14.54 | 14.54 | 0 | | 湖南（100） | 14.35 | 14.35 | 0.00 | 黑龙江 | 14.41 | 14.41 | 0 | | （-200） | 四川 14.57 | 14.57 | 0.00 | 福 建 | 14.92 | 14.92 | 0 | ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 07 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 据涌益跟踪及调研数据，4 月 30 日当周周度屠宰样本 ...