Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In late July, as group pig sales recover and demand is in the off - season, pig prices may continue to face pressure. In the medium to long term, pig supply will increase slightly, but the anti - involution initiative and strengthened environmental protection are beneficial to the long - term performance of pig prices, especially for far - month contracts [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 22nd, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, recovered, and fluctuated higher, closing up. The highest was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,380 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 912 lots to 167,061 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 22nd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, the utilization rate of pigsties reached a high level, and secondary fattening was mainly on the sidelines. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 22, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 133,600 heads, a decrease of 15,000 heads from the previous day and the same as a week ago [9]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. Currently, the slaughter progress of farmers has recovered, the enthusiasm for slaughter has increased compared with the first half of the month, the slaughter weight has slightly decreased, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is relatively high, with more secondary - fattened pigs yet to be slaughtered [9]. 2. Industry News - As of July 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 111 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 54 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 126 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 82 yuan/head [10][12]. 3. Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 17 was 542 yuan/head, an increase of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [21]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [21]. - As of the week of July 17, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [21].

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Currently, the group's pig出栏量 has recovered, and prices have continued to decline. From mid - to late July, large - scale pig - farming enterprises may increase their supply to meet monthly targets. With demand in the off - season, pig prices are likely to face further pressure. In the medium - to long - term, pig supply will increase, but anti - cut - throat competition initiatives and strengthened environmental protection policies are favorable for long - term pig prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 17th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive candle. The highest price was 14,075 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,060 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,275 lots to 160,859 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 17th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly widened, and the utilization rate of pigsties increased, indicating higher enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Due to hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and farmers reduced the number of pigs for sale. The slaughter volume and operating rate of slaughterhouses remained low. On July 17th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 131,600 heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 5,000 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig出栏量 of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% decrease from June. The出栏量 may be slightly adjusted down. In the early part of the month, enterprises temporarily held back pigs and reduced the number of pigs for sale, but now the出栏 progress has recovered. There are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [8]. 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 11, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 165 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 44 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/head [9][11]. 3. Data Overview - The average market selling price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 10 was 539 yuan/head, an increase of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [19]. - In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 53.9%, a 9 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period [19]. - In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week [19]. - As of the week ending July 11, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a 0.30% increase [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of live pigs has declined. After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The supply pressure is still expected to exist in the future, and it is relatively difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4][6]. - The live pig futures have shown an obvious decline, and the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased. The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The average spot price of live pigs today is 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in various regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 0.2 yuan/kg in Jiangxi [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The previous slaughter completion was relatively good, and the recent slaughter pressure has decreased. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory [4]. - **Profit Situation**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head compared with yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets is 31.60 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head compared with yesterday [4]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: All LH contracts have declined. For example, LH01 is now 13700 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from yesterday; LH09 is 14010 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from yesterday [4]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of LH7 - 9 is - 120, an increase of 130 compared with yesterday; the spread of LH9 - 1 is 310, a decrease of 175 compared with yesterday [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Mainly operate in a high - level shock [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]

Report Information - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of pigs are both decreasing in the short - term. The reduced supply has boosted the rebound of futures and spot prices, but currently, the group's sales volume has recovered, leading to a slight price correction. In the medium and long - term, pig supply will continue to increase, and with the consumption off - season, pig prices may face pressure. Although the futures contracts are slightly at a discount to the spot, the spot market's supply reduction to maintain prices has driven the price rebound, and domestic anti - involution initiatives and strengthened environmental protection efforts support market sentiment [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 14th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing down. The highest price was 14,305 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,185 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,285 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,499 lots to 162,291 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 14th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, and the utilization rate of pigsties increased, indicating higher enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Due to hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 14, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 132,500 heads, a decrease of 2,000 heads from the previous day and an increase of 1,700 heads from a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig sales volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% decrease from June. In the early part of the month, enterprises reduced supply and the average weight of pigs increased. There are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [9] 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 11, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 165 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened from purchased piglets was - 44 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/head [10][12] 3. Data Overview - The average market selling price of 15kg piglets in the week of July 10 was 539 yuan/head, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous week [20] - In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 53.9%, a 9 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period [20] - In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [20] - As of the week ending July 11, the average weight of nationwide pig sales was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a 0.30% increase [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall spot price of live pigs showed a fluctuating trend. After the previous continuous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for selling increased, leading to a price decline. However, the overall decline space was limited as the market's resistance to low prices increased. The market supply improved in the short term, and the upward momentum of prices was restricted. The follow - up supply pressure was still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory, making it difficult for the spot price to continue rising [2]. - The live pig futures showed a fluctuating downward trend. After the previous rapid increase, the market's bullish sentiment declined, and the futures entered a high - level fluctuation state. It was expected to be affected by the weakening spot price. The short - term monthly spread was expected to be mainly volatile due to the lack of obvious driving factors [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Information - **Price Comparison**: The average price of live pigs on July 10, 2025, was 14.14 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous day. Most regions saw price declines, with only Hunan and Jiangxi having slight increases. The prices of sows remained unchanged at 1621 yuan, while the prices of piglets rose to 439 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan from the previous week [2]. - **Profit Situation**: The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan/head, an increase of 69.48 yuan compared to the previous day. The profit for purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan/head, an increase of 105.45 yuan [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The slaughter volume was 132,166 heads, an increase of 89 heads from the previous day. The price difference between large and medium - sized pigs and standard pigs changed, with the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs increasing by 0.02 yuan [2]. Futures Information - **Futures Price**: The futures prices of LH01, LH03, LH05, LH09, and LH11 increased, while LH07 decreased. For example, LH01 rose from 13,675 yuan to 13,775 yuan, and LH07 fell from 13,960 yuan to 13,950 yuan [2]. - **Contract Spread**: The spread of LH7 - 9 decreased by 120 yuan, while LH9 - 1, LH9 - 11 increased by 10 yuan and 15 yuan respectively, and LH11 - 1 decreased by 5 yuan [2]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It was mainly in a high - level volatile operation [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Conducted a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [6]. - **Options**: Adopted a wait - and - see strategy [6].

日期 2025 年 07 月 10 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 行业 生猪日报 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，9 日生猪主力 2509 合约低开后探底回升震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最 高 14270 元/吨，最低 14175 元/吨，收盘报 1426 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience an oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant, which makes it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing obvious price drops. It is not recommended to chase long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - After the recovery of the slaughter volume, the spot price has recently oscillated downward, and the LH2509 contract has also adjusted weakly [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 3,761 lots today, with a position of about 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,310 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,245 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard spread may oscillate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices indicating a less loose supply - demand situation than the short - side believes, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching of the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply. The current "weight reduction - stable pig price" relationship in the spot market shows demand support, preventing obvious price drops. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the recent price increase may be due to low slaughter volume. If the slaughter returns to normal, the price increase is likely unsustainable, so chasing long is not recommended [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - The national average live pig slaughter price on July 7 was 14.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% from July 4 [6]. - The slaughter price in Henan increased by 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% to 15.07 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.41 yuan/kg [6]. - Among futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, and 07 contracts increased, with increases ranging from 0.11% to 1.59%, while the 09 and 11 contracts decreased by 0.42% and 0.26% respectively [6]. - The main basis in Henan decreased by 190 yuan/ton or 18.72% to 825 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price differences between the 09 - 11 and 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

General Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 8, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The demand for pigs is in the off - season. The previous continuous pressure on pigs and reduced sales by enterprises continue to support the rebound of futures and spot prices. However, as the group's sales volume gradually recovers, the price is回调. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase. Around the middle and late July, group - owned breeding enterprises may increase the volume of sales to meet the monthly sales target, and pig prices may be under pressure due to the off - season of consumption [9] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 7th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and then fell in a volatile manner, closing with a negative line. The highest was 14,310 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,324 lots to 161,386 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 7th, the average price of三元 outside the country was 14.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Market Analysis**: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remains low, the utilization rate of pigsty is relatively high, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish stocks is low, and only a small amount enters the market. With the rise in temperature, terminal demand weakens, slaughter enterprise orders are average, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughter enterprises remain low. On the supply side, the planned sales volume of sample enterprises in July decreased by 1.19% month - on - month compared with June, and the sales volume may be slightly reduced. The sales volume of groups is gradually recovering, and the average weight of pigs for sale is slightly decreasing, but there are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [9] 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 3, the profit per head from self - breeding and self - fattening was 171.09 yuan, an increase of 54.48 yuan per head compared with the previous week. The profit per head from purchasing piglets for fattening was 14.15 yuan, an increase of 16.71 yuan per head compared with the previous week [10][12] 3. Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market in the week ending July 3 was 530 yuan/head, remaining the same as the previous week [21] - In the week ending July 3, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.5608 million heads, a decrease of 125,900 heads compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46%. The average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 139,029 heads, a decrease of 5,040 heads compared with the previous week, with an average daily decrease of 3.50%. The slaughter volume on Thursday of this week was 134,338 heads, a decrease of 7,789 heads compared with Thursday of the previous week, a decrease of 5.48% [21] - As of the week ending July 3, the average weight of pigs for sale nationwide was 128.64 kg, an increase of 0.50 kg compared with the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, and an increase of 2.93 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.33% [21]

Group 1 - The data shows a decline in various provinces' values on July 7 compared to July 6, with notable decreases in Jiangxi (-0.41), Fujian (-0.28), and Hunan (-0.22) [2][3] - In contrast, Guangdong province experienced a slight increase of 0.09 on July 7 compared to July 6, indicating a positive trend in that region [3] - Weekly comparisons reveal that most provinces have shown a slight increase compared to the previous week, with notable increases in Anhui (0.19), Zhejiang (0.26), and Fujian (0.58) [2][3] Group 2 - The data indicates that the overall trend in the regions is mixed, with some provinces experiencing declines while others show increases, reflecting regional economic variations [2][3] - The performance of provinces such as Guangdong and Fujian suggests potential areas for investment focus, given their recent positive trends [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant, which will limit significant price increases. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing significant price drops. It is not recommended to chase the rising prices [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 3, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 450 lots [2]. - The spot price and the LH2509 contract both underwent oscillatory adjustment, awaiting new driving factors [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,273 lots, with a remaining position of approximately 79,700 lots. The highest price was 14,420 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,250 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,370 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The overall supply of live pigs in the second and third quarters of 2025 will increase in an oscillatory manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may experience oscillatory adjustment [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent supply, and limited demand support in the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent supply, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The recommended strategy is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. The current "weight reduction - stable price" relationship in the spot market indicates that demand provides some support, preventing significant price drops. The 2509 contract is almost at the same level as the price trough, and the recent price increase may be due to reduced supply from the breeding sector. If the supply returns to normal, the price increase is unlikely to be sustainable, so it is not recommended to chase the rising prices [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 3, the national average live pig slaughter price was 15.46 yuan/kg, a 1.05% increase from the previous day. The prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price in Henan was 15.41 yuan/kg, a 0.26% decrease, and the price in Sichuan was 14.91 yuan/kg, a 1.22% increase [6]. - The futures prices of different contracts also showed different trends. For example, the 09 contract closed at 14,370 yuan/ton, a 0.21% increase from the previous day [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 70 yuan/ton, a 6.31% decrease [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data tracking charts for futures contracts' closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].