Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short-term "relatively strong" rating for the live hog industry [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The contradictions in the live hog market continue to accumulate, and the short-term trend is relatively strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The Henan spot price is 12,080 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 250 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 12,250 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 150 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 11,760 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 200 yuan/ton. For futures, the prices of live hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,300 yuan/ton, 11,645 yuan/ton, and 12,090 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year increases of 95 yuan/ton, 185 yuan/ton, and 115 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live hog 2601 is 7,448 lots, an increase of 2,289 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 15,509 lots, a decrease of 3,509 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live hog 2603 is 117,211 lots, an increase of 53,885 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 171,508 lots, an increase of 8,077 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live hog 2605 is 26,673 lots, an increase of 12,218 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 86,130 lots, an increase of 1,472 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis of live hog 2601 is 780 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 155 yuan/ton; the basis of live hog 2603 is 435 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 65 yuan/ton; the basis of live hog 2605 is -10 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 135 yuan/ton; the spread between live hog 1 - 3 is -345 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the spread between live hog 3 - 5 is -445 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 70 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Multiple companies registered warehouse receipts in December. Yunnan Shennong registered 85 lots on December 4th, Guizhou Fuyuan registered 23 lots on December 5th, Dekang registered 225 lots on December 10th and 150 lots on December 11th, Yangxiang registered 40 lots on December 10th, COFCO registered 300 lots on December 15th, and Muyuan registered 40 lots on December 23rd [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce determined that there was dumping of imported related pork and by-products originating from the European Union [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The value of trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply pressure of live pigs is alleviated as the large - scale farms' slaughter progress is normal in the second half of the month, the slaughter pressure at the end of the month decreases, the supply of fat pigs is low, and some second - fattening farmers' willingness to enter the market increases. On the demand side, the activities of curing bacon and making sausage are increasing, and there is stocking demand before the New Year's Day, so the terminal consumption is good, which supports the price. Overall, the supply - demand pattern improves in the short - term, boosting the short - term strong - side oscillation of live pig prices. In the medium - term, the supply pressure still exists, and as the price rises further, the acceptance of the demand terminal will decline, and the attitude of second - fattening farmers will become more cautious, so the medium - term upward space is expected to be limited [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The live pig price rebounded, and the main contract 2603 rose 2.83% weekly [6][10]. - In the near term, the supply - demand situation improves, but in the medium - term, the upward space is limited [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - The futures price rebounded this week, with the main contract 2603 rising 2.83% weekly [10]. - As of December 26th, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures increased by 5323 hands to 51717 hands, and the number of futures warrants was 863, an increase of 40 from the previous week [16]. - The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 445, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1120 [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - This week, the basis of the live pig 1 - month contract was 500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 3 - month contract was 155 yuan/ton [26]. - The national average price of live pigs was 11.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week, and the average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.38 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [36]. - As of the week of December 18th, the national average pork price was 22.53 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous week, and the average price of binary sows was 32.46 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [40]. - As of the week of December 10th, the pig - grain ratio was 5.18, a decrease of 0.03 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - In October 2025, the number of reproductive sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%, falling below 40 million for the first time since June 2024. In November, according to Mysteel data, the number of reproductive sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, and in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the number of live pigs was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In November, according to Mysteel data, the number of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - In November, according to Mysteel data, the number of commercial pigs slaughtered in large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 5.59%, and in small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. The average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.55 kg, a decrease of 0.12 kg from the previous week [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - As of December 26th, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 162.8 yuan/head, a reduction of 26.7 yuan/head, and the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.11 yuan/head, a reduction of 0.76 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.47 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 broilers was 0.01 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/head [63]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, with an average of 83,600 tons per month. In November, the pork import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [64][68]. - As of the week of December 26th, the price of白条鸡 was 14.1 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. As of the week of December 25th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week [73]. - As of December 26th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3174.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.72 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2338.63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - As of December 26th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 894.54, and the price of finishing pig feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [81]. - In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons, and the sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85]. - As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - In the 52nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 40.24%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 1.16 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 18.20%, an increase of 0.01% from the previous week [92]. - As of October 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises was 38.34 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.98% and 33.31%. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97]. 3.7 Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. but does not give specific analysis [98][100].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to fluctuate as supply and demand both increase, but demand has weakened after the Winter Solstice. The futures market is under pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts due to increased supply, but the 03 contract may be relatively favorable after the Spring Festival, with increased bottom - oscillation frequency. The progress of the epidemic needs continuous tracking [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: On the 25th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell in a volatile manner, closing down. The highest was 11,540 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,410 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,460 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,496 lots to 347,337 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 11.58 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens is slightly higher than last year, increasing supply pressure before the Spring Festival. The planned slaughter of sample breeding enterprises in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Currently, the overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state with a small amount of rolling replenishment demand. Due to the continuous cooling, the demand for curing and sausage - making has increased, and terminal consumer demand has continued to rise. However, after the Winter Solstice stocking, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly decreased. The anti - dumping tax on imported pork from the EU has a limited impact [9] 2. Industry News - No specific news content provided 3. Data Overview - In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week - As of December 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 119.8 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per pig raised with purchased piglets was - 238.2 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter was 11.42 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from last week - As of the week of December 18, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg from last week, a weekly increase of 0.42%, up 1.37 kg from last month, a monthly increase of 1.06%, and down 0.50 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 0.38% [14]

2025 年 12 月 26 日 商 品 研 究 | | 生猪：矛盾继续积累 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11830 | | 50 | | | 价 格 | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12100 | | 200 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11960 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11205 | | -95 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11460 | | -20 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11975 | | -10 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日 【生猪日报】出栏压力减少 现货小幅震荡 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | | 2025/12/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 11.76 | 11.78 | -0.02 | 山西 | （-100） | 11.47 | 11.48 | -0.01 | | 湖北（0） | 11.53 | 11.53 | 0.00 | 辽宁 | （-300） | 11.31 | 11.32 | -0.01 | | 安徽（200） | 11.97 | 12.01 | -0.04 | | 吉林（-300） | 11.29 | 11.30 | -0.01 | | 湖南 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Pig Daily Report - Date: December 23, 2025 - Industry: Pig industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. Second - round fattening and pig retention in October have increased supply pressure before the Spring Festival. The overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal, with a planned December slaughter of 27.72 million heads, a 4.64% monthly increase [9]. - On the demand side, second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with a small amount of rolling restocking demand in December. Cold weather has increased demand for curing and enema, but after the Winter Solstice stocking, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughter enterprises have slightly decreased [9]. - Policy - wise, the anti - dumping tax on imported pork and pig by - products from the EU has a limited impact due to the low proportion compared to domestic consumption [9]. - Overall, the spot market will likely fluctuate due to increased supply and demand, with weakened demand after the Winter Solstice. The futures market will face double supply pressure from second - round fattening in October and continuous capacity release, putting pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, prices have dropped significantly compared to last year, and the increase in northern epidemics has made bottom - end fluctuations more frequent [9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures market**: On the 22nd, the main 2603 pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, closing up 0.49% at 11,345 yuan/ton. The total index position decreased by 8,417 lots to 346,875 lots [8]. - **Spot market**: On the 22nd, the national average price of三元 pigs was 11.43 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Slaughter volume**: In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned December slaughter volume is 27.72 million heads, a 4.64% monthly increase and a 1.27% daily increase [13]. - **Piglet price**: The average market price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week [13]. - **Profit and cost**: As of December 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 119.8 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened from purchased piglets was - 238.2 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week, while the expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter was 11.42 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [13]. - **Average slaughter weight**: As of the week of December 18, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg from last week (a 0.42% weekly increase), up 1.37 kg from last month (a 1.06% monthly increase), and down 0.50 kg from the same period last year (a 0.38% annual decrease) [13].

2025 年 12 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 | 生猪：现货弱势显现 | | --- | | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11780 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12100 | | -50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12160 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11150 | | -70 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11325 | | 0 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11925 | | 45 | | | | | 单 ...

2025 年 12 月 19 日 商 品 研 究 生猪：冬至需求高峰已至 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11880 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12150 | | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11220 | | -155 | | | ...

Report Information - Report title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot market is boosted by the demand for curing and enema, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend The supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend, and the demand elasticity before the Spring Festival still exists However, the concentrated second - fattening in October and the continuous release of production capacity form double supply pressure, which continues to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts, but the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, and the recent increase in northern epidemics has led to a low - level rebound following the spot market, with an increasing frequency of bottom oscillations [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 17th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened higher, then rose and fell back, and oscillated higher, closing in the positive territory The highest price was 11,550 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,435 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous day The total index position increased by 10,993 lots to 361,611 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 17th, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 11.60 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend until the first half of next year In October, the second - fattening and weight - retaining were concentrated, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is currently relatively high, slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64% Currently, the overall completion progress of groups in multiple regions is slightly slow, and there is a certain increase in acquisition difficulty due to the reduction of some channels [7] - **Demand Side**: Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and there may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December With the continuous cooling of the weather, the curing and enema are increasing, the terminal consumer demand is rising, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises significantly supports the slaughter volume The slaughter volume and the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises have increased On December 17th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 195,000 heads, an increase of 4,200 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 29,000 heads [7] - **Policy Side**: China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pork by - products originating from the EU, but the impact is very limited due to the extremely low proportion compared with domestic consumption [7] 2. Data Overview - **Slaughter Volume**: The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36% The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13] - **Breeding Profit**: As of December 11th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 146 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 11.5 yuan/head The average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 264 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6 yuan/head [13] - **Breeding Cost**: As of December 11th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.09 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg The expected cost of purchasing piglets for fattening to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 11.41 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/kg [13] - **Slaughter Weight and Proportion**: In the week ending December 11th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.63 kg, a decrease of 0.19 kg from the previous week The proportion of pigs slaughtered under 90 kg was 5.43%, an increase of 0.38% from the previous week The proportion of pigs slaughtered over 150 kg was 6.9%, almost the same as the previous week [13]

2025 年 12 月 17 日 商 品 研 究 | 生猪：冬至需求高峰将至 | | --- | | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11480 | | 0 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12050 | | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11390 | | -10 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11350 | | 45 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11930 | | ...