每经AI快讯，12月29日，现货白银日内跌幅扩大至6%，报74.38美元/盎司，盘中一度大涨6%创新高。 ...

白银期货从纪录高点回落，下跌1.9%，报每盎司75.74美元。该金属当天早些时候曾飙升至每盎司82.67 美元的纪录新高，而在1月初的交易价格约为30美元。其价格一直受到珠宝商、数据中心开发商和太阳 能电池板制造商需求的支撑。矿业公司Fresnillo和Hochschild Mining的股价因该金属价格持续上涨而走 高，分别上涨4.2%和近2%。 ...

Group 1 - The silver futures market has shown a significant increase, with the Shanghai silver futures closing at 18,205 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.51% and a trading volume of 1,442,805 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai reached 19,235 yuan per kilogram, indicating a premium of 1,030 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised the margin requirements for metal contracts, which historically has led to substantial declines in silver prices [2] Group 2 - Domestic silver prices have continued to rise significantly during the Christmas holiday, with market sentiment remaining high despite fluctuations due to margin adjustments [2] - The premium for Shanghai silver has expanded to 1,800 yuan per kilogram, indicating strong domestic market sentiment [2] - The silver price is expected to challenge the 20,000 yuan per kilogram mark, with current trading advised to be cautious due to high volatility [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly in 2025, driven by increased safe-haven demand and bullish technical indicators, reaching historical highs before experiencing volatility [1] Price Movements - On December 28, silver futures on the New York Commodity Exchange surpassed $80 per ounce for the first time, hitting a peak of $83, representing an increase of over 175% compared to the beginning of the year [1] - Following the peak, silver prices retreated below $80 per ounce, while London spot silver prices also briefly exceeded $80 [1] Historical Context - The year began with silver spot prices around $29.50 per ounce, which began a steady rise in March [1] - A significant drop occurred in early April when U.S. President Trump announced large-scale tariff measures, causing prices to fall back to the critical support level near $29.50 [1] - By early September, silver prices climbed back to $41 per ounce, marking the start of a bull market for silver in 2025 [1] Future Predictions - Some industry experts predict further increases in silver prices for 2026, while others caution about potential sharp declines [1] - TD Securities believes that the London silver market has replenished its inventory lost over the past year, forecasting a price drop to around $40 per ounce in the coming year [1] - Montreal Bank anticipates an average silver price of $56.3 per ounce for 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The silver prices in both New York futures and London spot markets experienced significant volatility, initially surging above $80 per ounce before sharply declining, indicating a high level of speculative positions and substantial short-term risk in the market [1]. Price Movement - On February 29, during the first trading day of the week in the Asian trading session, both New York silver futures and London spot silver prices broke the $80 per ounce mark, reaching new intraday highs [1]. - Following this surge, the London spot silver price reversed from an increase of over 5% to a decline of more than 2%, highlighting the extreme fluctuations in the market [1].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has entered a "high volatility mode," driven by supply shortages supporting prices while speculative sentiment amplifies risks [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - On Monday, spot silver surged nearly 6% during Asian trading, approaching $84 per ounce, but later experienced a sharp decline, with intraday losses exceeding 5%, resulting in a total fluctuation of over 10% [1]. - As of the report, the spot silver price retreated to around $78 [1]. - The highest price recorded was $83.971, while the lowest was $75.073 [2]. Group 2: Yearly Performance - Silver has shown remarkable performance this year, starting at $29 per ounce and achieving a maximum cumulative increase of approximately 180%, significantly outpacing gold [3]. - Last week alone, spot silver saw a weekly increase close to 18% [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The domestic futures market mirrored international trends, with the main Shanghai silver contract rising over 7% at one point, reaching a new high [3]. - The A-share market reacted positively, with the non-ferrous metal sector becoming active, including significant gains for silver-related companies [3]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a severe imbalance in supply and demand, with global silver demand projected to reach 1.24 billion ounces by 2025, while supply is only expected to be 1.01 billion ounces, creating a shortfall of 100 to 250 million ounces [6]. - The market has been in a "structural deficit" for five consecutive years, driven by increasing consumption in industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and data centers, alongside declining physical inventories [6]. Group 5: Expert Opinions - Economists like Peter Schiff suggest that a silver price of $100 by 2026 is a "very realistic target," while more aggressive forecasts predict prices could reach $200 [6]. - Contrarily, some analysts express skepticism, with pessimistic views suggesting that prices have risen to levels difficult to justify based on fundamentals, predicting a potential drop to around $42 by next year [7]. - UBS warns that the current price surge is largely based on insufficient market liquidity, indicating a risk of rapid declines [7]. Group 6: Historical Context and Future Uncertainty - The recent price of silver has surpassed that of a barrel of U.S. crude oil, a situation not seen since April 2020 during the pandemic [7]. - The volatility in silver prices is closely linked to expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, with upcoming announcements expected to reveal internal divisions within the Fed [7].

9月初，白银价格再度攀升至每盎司41美元之后一路上涨，白银市场开启2025年牛市。12月8日，白银价 格突破每盎司60美元；26日，白银价格超过每盎司79美元。 一些业内人士预测，2026年白银价格将进一步上涨。但也有专家警告，白银价格可能出现暴跌。道明证 券认为，伦敦白银市场已经弥补了过去一年流失的库存，预计未来一年白银价格将回落至每盎司40美元 左右。蒙特利尔银行预计，2026年白银均价为每盎司56.3美元。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:薛涛】 新华社纽约12月28日电（记者徐静）受避险需求增加和看涨技术指标拉动，纽约商品交易所白银期货价 格28日首次突破每盎司80美元关口，再创历史新高。此后，银价出现大幅波动。 当天，纽约商品交易所白银期货价格一度触及每盎司83美元，与今年年初相比上涨超过175%。不过， 白银期价在创新高后回落至每盎司80美元下方。伦敦白银现货价格当天也一度突破每盎司80美元。 2025年初白银现货价格以每盎司近29.50美元开盘，随后在3月开始缓慢但稳定地上涨。美国总统特朗普 4月初宣布大规模关税措施，导致白银价格下跌至每盎司29.50美元关键支撑位附近。 ...

| W | | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 76.454 | | 昨结 | 79.329 | | 开盘 | | 79.256 | | -2.875 | -3.62% | 总量(kg) | 0.00 | | 现主 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 83.971 | 持 包 | | 0 タト | 물 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 75.073 | 指 ਿ | | 0 B | 醫 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 围K | 月K | | 車 名 | 0 | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:- | | 盘口 | | | 83.971 | | | | 5.85% | 荧1 | 76.510 | 0 | | | | | | | 331 | 76.460 | 0 | | | | | | | | 09:42 76.449 | 0 | | | | | | | | 09:42 76.454 | 0 | | | | | | | 0.00% 0 ...

| W | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 73.649 | | 昨结 总量 | 71.810 | | | 0 | | +1.839 | +2.56% 开盘 | 现手 | 71.810 | | | 0 | | 最高价 73.788 | | 持 එ 外 | 0 | 香 | | 0 | | 最低价 71.629 | | 월 色 内 | 0 | | | 0 | | 分时 五日 | | EK 月K | EK | | 用名 | | | 一加 | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | | 73.788 | | 2.75% | | | 73.692 | | | | | | | | 73.649 | | | | | | | 8:21 | 73.652 | O | | | | | | | 8:21 73.639 | O | | 11.810 | | 0.00% | | | 8:21 73.645 | 0 | | | | | | | 8:21 73.640 | 0 | | ...

过去几周，白银抛物线般的上涨行情无疑引人注目——随着现货白银价格周三升破72美元，银价在今年已经翻了一倍多，比2022 年时17美元的低点价格更是高出了逾三倍。 从历史上看，当前银价的飙升与下图所示的两次先前的历史性跳涨几乎如出一辙，甚至这一回的疯牛行情要更为猛烈。 金融危机后的白银飙升 我们先来看距离我们目前更近的那一次白银史诗级大牛行情——随着2008年金融危机的动荡在2009年开始缓解，白银价格开启了 一轮500%的涨势，在两年内从8.50美元上涨至50.00美元。美联储对危机的过度货币反应，加上严重的投机，为白银市场创造了一 场完美风暴。 在金融危机期间，美联储史无前例地将利率降至零、推出量化宽松政策(QE)并实施了一系列货币救助。由此导致实际利率（经通 胀调整后）跌入负值区间。下图就显示了，2年期美国国债实际收益率如今在2009年的急剧下挫，并持续走低至2011年中期…… 白银价格的上涨当时恰与实际收益率的下降同步。这种由实际收益率反映的货币政策扭曲，使白银受益——因为白银往往被投资 者视为对冲极端货币政策行为的高贝塔工具。 尽管货币环境利好此轮白银涨势，但供需失衡同样推高了价格。白银供给弹性较低， ...