Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including protein meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the current supply - demand situation, cost factors, and future expectations of each product [3][5][8][11][14][17][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Condition**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rose slightly due to trade optimism and recent drought. Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the East China basis at 01 - 110 remaining unchanged. The downstream inventory days increased by 0.42 days to 9.22 days last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were almost unchanged week - on - week and at a high level in recent years year - on - year [3]. - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the undervaluation of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and Brazilian planting season trading, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, potential expansion of Brazilian planting area, and possible short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost of imported soybeans has maintained a weak and stable trend recently. The domestic soybean meal market has high - level提货. It is expected that the spot side may start to destock in September, supporting the oil mill's crushing profit. The soybean meal should be mainly operated in a range - bound manner, waiting for a driving factor to choose a direction [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and the output decreased by 3.17% month - on - month. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to reach 753 million tons. The price of edible oils including palm oil is expected to be firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand. On Tuesday, the three major domestic oils were strong, with stable demand from importing countries, low inventory in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia providing continuous positive factors [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center of oils. Oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose current supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be in a medium - term upward trend. With the current high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 5547 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The sugar yield and sugar content in Brazil's central - southern region in August decreased compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both the domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. The domestic sugar price is expected to continue to decline, and if Brazil's sugar production continues to increase from August to October, the domestic sugar price may reach a new low [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 13895 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The开机率 of the downstream textile industry has increased but is still lower than the same period in previous years. The domestic cotton inventory is at a low level, and the US cotton has a high excellent rate and a normal harvest rate [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the consumption peak season approaching, the downstream开机率 is increasing, but the inventory is low and there is an expected increase in production in the long - term. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [14]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.07 yuan to 3.74 yuan/jin. The supply is sufficient, and the market demand is stable [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply base is still large, and there is a large amount of cold - stored eggs. After a short - term increase, the spot price may fall back. However, after the large - scale culling of laying hens, the supply pressure decreases. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions in the far - month contracts when there is a large increase in positions after a price decline [17]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.17 yuan to 13.19 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.13 yuan to 12.74 yuan/kg. The demand is average, and the slaughter volume is stable. The pig price is expected to continue to be weak [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The planned slaughter volume is large in September, but there are potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state reserves. The spot price may fluctuate in a narrow range. The futures price has fallen continuously, and it is not cost - effective to short further. Pay attention to the possibility of a rebound due to policies and consumption, and short - sell after the rebound. The far - month reverse spread strategy continues [20].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core View - The sugar market is facing downward pressure. In the international market, the good weather in Brazil is conducive to sugarcane harvesting, and the increase in Brazilian sugar production suppresses sugar prices. The decline in oil prices also has a negative impact on sugar prices. In the domestic market, the increase in imported sugar and syrup premixes, the upcoming listing of new - season beet sugar in Xinjiang in September, and the weak demand from downstream food and beverage enterprises all contribute to the downward trend of sugar prices. Additionally, the shift of speculative funds from long to short and the potential for further short - position increases exacerbate the decline [7][8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **International Market**: On Wednesday, New York raw sugar futures weakened slightly. The主力 October contract closed down 0.62% at 16.05 cents per pound, and the London ICE white sugar futures'主力 October contract closed down 1.3% at $484.40 per ton. The good weather in Brazil is favorable for sugarcane harvesting, and the large - scale production of Brazilian sugar suppresses sugar prices. The decline in oil prices also has a negative impact on sugar prices [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures'主力 contract continued to weaken. The SR601 contract closed at 5,533 yuan per ton, down 36 yuan or 0.65%, with an increase of 7,114 positions. The spot prices in domestic production areas declined. The fundamental negative factors include the increase in imported sugar and syrup premixes, the upcoming listing of new - season beet sugar in Xinjiang in September, and the insufficient demand from downstream food and beverage enterprises. After - market analysis shows that speculative funds have shifted from long to short and may further increase short positions, accelerating the price decline [8]. 4.2 Industry News - **India**: The chairman of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) in India stated that the export parity price of white sugar should be $500 per ton, and that of raw sugar should be over $19 per ton [9]. - **Brazil**: As of August 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the ethanol inventory in the central - southern region was 5.52 billion liters, a 15.6% increase from the previous month but a 29.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. In terms of inventory structure, 58.7% is hydrous ethanol and 41.3% is anhydrous ethanol. The ethanol inventory in São Paulo, the largest production and consumption state, was 2.92 billion liters, a 16.8% increase from the previous month and a 30.3% decrease year - on - year. In July 2025, the Brazilian fuel market showed a continuous decline in ethanol consumption and a slight recovery in gasoline demand. The sales volume of hydrous ethanol in July was 1.65 billion liters, a 6.1% decrease year - on - year and a 0.3% decrease from the previous month; the gasoline sales volume was 3.78 billion liters, a 0.8% increase year - on - year and a 3% increase from the previous month. From the cumulative data, the ethanol consumption in the first seven months of 2025 was 12.23 billion liters, a 2.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2024; the cumulative gasoline sales volume was 26.06 billion liters, a 3.5% increase year - on - year. As of the week of August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 72, up from 70 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.7221 million tons, down from 2.9169 million tons in the previous week [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Data**: The report provides data on futures contracts such as SR601, SR605, US Sugar 10, and US Sugar 03, including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, open interest, and changes in open interest [7]. - **Position Data**: The report shows the trading volume and position data of the top 20 members in the SR605 contract on September 4, 2025, including trading volume, long - position quantity, and short - position quantity and their changes [25].

Group 1 - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected at 44.5 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 45.9 million tons in April [1] - Brazil's sugarcane production for the same season is expected to be 668.8 million tons, slightly up from the April estimate of 663.4 million tons [1] - Pakistan's TCP has preliminarily purchased 30,000 tons of white sugar in a recent international tender for 200,000 tons [1] Group 2 - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 70 to 15,316 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2] - International sugar market is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to increased supply from Brazil, while domestic sugar prices are supported by high production and sales rates [3] - Domestic sugar prices may face downward pressure from increasing import sugar, as observed in recent trading activities [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - New York raw sugar futures weakened on Monday, with the main October contract down 0.55% to 16.39 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures were closed. The relatively calm fundamentals of raw sugar, the increase in sugar production due to better weather in Brazil, and the strong production increase expectations in the Northern Hemisphere are suppressing sugar prices [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract tumbled yesterday. The 01 contract closed at 5,632 yuan per ton, down 53 yuan or 0.93%, with a reduction of 1,534 lots. The spot prices in domestic producing areas declined. The sharp drop in Zhengzhou sugar 01 in the afternoon was due to capital pressure, with no obvious changes in fundamentals. The pressure of imported sugar will gradually increase, suppressing domestic sugar prices [8]. Group 4: Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5,678 yuan per ton, down 0.89% with a decrease of 3,568 lots; SR601 closed at 5,632 yuan per ton, down 0.93% with a decrease of 1,534 lots. The main October contract of New York raw sugar futures was down 0.55% to 16.39 cents per pound [7]. - **Analysis of Market Trends**: The relatively calm fundamentals of raw sugar, the increase in sugar production due to better weather in Brazil, and the strong production increase expectations in the Northern Hemisphere are suppressing sugar prices. The sharp drop in Zhengzhou sugar 01 in the afternoon was due to capital pressure, with no obvious changes in fundamentals [7][8]. 2. Industry News - **ICE Position Data**: As of the week ending August 19, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 contracts, a decrease of 2,291 contracts from the previous week. Speculative long positions decreased by 11,403 contracts to 179,365 contracts, and speculative short positions increased by 4,227 contracts to 310,352 contracts. The net speculative short position increased by 15,630 contracts to 130,987 contracts [9]. - **Inventory in Guangxi**: As of August 20, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 770,000 tons, an increase of about 310,000 tons compared with the same period last year, slightly lower than the average level of the past five years. The inventory in August decreased by about 140,000 tons compared with July, and the destocking speed slowed down significantly [9]. - **Brazilian Port Shipping Data**: As of the week ending August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.9169 million tons, a decrease of 401,000 tons or 12.08% from the previous week [9]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder Imports in July**: In July, China imported 45,400 tons of syrup and white sugar premixed powder under tariff number 1702.90, a year - on - year decrease of 182,800 tons or 80.12%. The average CIF price was 3,373.30 yuan per ton, a decrease of 292.96 yuan per ton from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 294.70 yuan per ton, at a relatively low level in the same period of the past six years [9]. - **Weather Impact on Sugarcane**: Since mid - July, the light, temperature, and water conditions in most sugarcane areas in China have been well - matched, which is beneficial to the elongation of sugarcane stems. Affected by typhoons and monsoon troughs, some sugarcane areas have suffered from strong winds, heavy rains, waterlogging, and lodging disasters, affecting the normal growth of sugarcane. It is expected that the overall meteorological conditions in Guangxi in the next 30 days will be favorable for sugarcane stem elongation, but field management and pest control need to be strengthened [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including spot trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][15][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the sugar market is experiencing fluctuations due to varying production levels and market dynamics, with domestic sugar prices being supported by low inventory levels despite potential pressure from processing sugar [1][3]. Group 2 - As of August 15, the spot market for white sugar in Kunming remains stable, with prices ranging from 5810 to 5820 CNY per ton, consistent with previous quotes [1]. - The futures market shows the main white sugar contract closing at 5664.00 CNY per ton on August 15, with a slight increase of 0.07% [1]. - The Brazilian sugar industry reports a 15% year-on-year increase in sugar production for the first half of July, reaching 3.4 million tons, with a higher proportion of sugarcane being used for sugar production [2]. - The number of white sugar futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decreased by 245 to 17,284 on August 14 [2]. - According to research from Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, the global sugar market is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to increased sugar supply from Brazil, while domestic sugar prices are supported by high production and sales rates despite potential downward pressure from processing sugar [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - International market: With Brazil approaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. Although Brazil's sugar production was initially lower year-on-year, recent reports show a narrowing decline, indicating an increase in bi - weekly sugar production. As the current sugar price has factored in the production increase expectation, the raw sugar price is expected to trade in a range [11]. - Domestic market: The sales and production of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and sugar inventories are low. However, considering the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market and the increased influence of international sugar prices on domestic sugar prices, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [11]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be slightly stronger due to the rise in foreign sugar prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, one can consider selling put options at low levels [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures盘面**: SR09 closed at 5,722, up 16 (0.28%); SR01 closed at 5,657, up 45 (0.80%); SR05 closed at 5,606, up 49 (0.88%). The trading volume of SR09 was 46,763 with a decrease of 8,680, and the open interest was 78,335 with a decrease of 18,645. The trading volume of SR01 was 238,562 with an increase of 80,854, and the open interest was 310,322 with an increase of 3,735. The trading volume of SR05 was 10,505 with an increase of 4,938, and the open interest was 20,308 with a decrease of 898 [5]. - **Spot price**: In the spot market, the price in Liuzhou was 6,010 (unchanged), in Kunming was 5,905 (up 40), in Wuhan was 6,230 (up 10), in Nanning was 5,960 (unchanged), in Bayuquan was 6,175 (unchanged), in Rizhao was 6,050 (down 40), and in Xi'an was 6,360 (up 20). The basis in Liuzhou was 288, in Kunming was 183, in Wuhan was 508, in Nanning was 238, in Bayuquan was 453, in Rizhao was 328, and in Xi'an was 638 [5]. - **Monthly spread**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 51 (down 4), the SR09 - SR5 spread was 116 (down 29), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was 65 (down 33) [5]. - **Import profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.95, a premium of (0.17), and a freight of 33.25, the in - quota price was 4,524, the out - of - quota price was 5,763, the spread with Liuzhou was 247, the spread with Rizhao was 287, and the spread with the futures price was - 41. For Thai imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.95, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4,612, the out - of - quota price was 5,879, the spread with Liuzhou was 131, the spread with Rizhao was 171, and the spread with the futures price was - 157 [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important information**: Southern sugar prices in China were mainly up, with general trading volume. Kang师傅's H1 revenue exceeded 40 billion yuan, and net profit increased by 20%. The "carbonated and other" beverage category in its beverage business had a 6.3% year - on - year revenue increase to 10.356 billion yuan. The USDA estimated that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season (starting in October) would reach a record 9.42 million tons, with both beet sugar and cane sugar production estimates revised upwards. Due to the expected production increase, sugar imports in the new season are expected to decrease from 3.2 million tons in the previous season to 2.45 million tons [7][8]. - **Logical analysis**: Internationally, considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to accumulate. Although Brazil's sugar production was initially lower year - on - year, recent production has increased, and the current price has factored in the production increase expectation, so the raw sugar price is expected to trade in a range. Domestically, the sales and production of domestic sugar are fast, and inventories are low. However, with the large - scale entry of imported sugar, domestic sugar prices are more influenced by international prices, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the foreign sugar trend [11]. - **Trading strategy**: In the short term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be slightly stronger due to the rise in foreign sugar prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, one can consider selling put options at low levels [12][13][14]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures showing various sugar - related data such as regional monthly inventories, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales rates, spot prices, price spreads, and basis, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [15][19][23][25][28][29]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a "Sugar Data Daily" by ITG Guomao Futures [3] Group 2: Core View - The current sugar market shows a pattern of "strong overseas, weak domestic". International sugar prices are dominated by Brazil's production increase and crude oil fluctuations, while the domestic market faces the dual pressures of processed sugar impact and weak demand. In the medium to long term, with a global surplus, the upside for sugar prices is limited. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading approach [4] Group 3: Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - On August 7, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Chenming, Yunnan it was 5830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5715 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong it was 6090 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - SR09 was at 5667, down 16; SR01 was down 43; SR09 - 01 was 82, up 27 [4] Group 4: Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.202, down 0.0050; the real - RMB exchange rate was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the rupee - RMB exchange rate was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The ice raw sugar主力 was at 16.04, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 was at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 was at 66.96, unchanged [4]

Market Overview - As of August 5, the profit from producing white sugar in China using imported Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 1839 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 642 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - The profit from producing white sugar in China using imported Thai raw sugar is about 1792 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 582 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - Tereos, one of the world's largest sugar producers, reported a significant decline in quarterly profits due to low sugar prices impacting its core business and increased competition in its ethanol business due to a weaker dollar [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The sugar production in Brazil's central-southern region for the 25/26 season is expected to decrease year-on-year due to heavy rainfall in June, while sugar production in India and Thailand is projected to increase [2] - Domestic sugar sales data is strong, with sugar inventory in Guangxi estimated at around 800,000 tons [2] - There is uncertainty regarding future import levels, with expectations of 750,000 tons imported in July, followed by a gradual decrease in August, which may alleviate import pressure [2] Price Trends and Recommendations - Recent rapid adjustments in Zhengzhou sugar prices are primarily influenced by overall market corrections, but the current season is entering a consumption peak, suggesting strong cost support for domestic sugar prices [2] - The market is advised to consider buying on stabilization, with a reference support level for Zhengzhou sugar at 5500 CNY/ton [2] - International oil prices have declined, influenced by increased OPEC+ supply and concerns over weak global demand, which has led to a weak performance in Zhengzhou sugar futures [3] - The market lacks new fundamental themes, with attention on support around 5600 CNY/ton, and short-term trading is recommended [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar market: Brazil's total sugar production may be adjusted downward due to lower yields and a historically high sugar - to - cane ratio. Asian producers, especially India, have optimistic production estimates. With potential increased sucrose use by Coca - Cola and PepsiCo and procurement demand from countries like Pakistan, the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate widely between 16 - 18 cents per pound [2][20]. - Domestic sugar market: The sales of domestic sugar are progressing ahead of schedule, imports have increased significantly, and processed sugar has been put on the market in large quantities with stable prices. The cost of some previously priced raw sugar is similar to that of domestic sugar, so the market pressure is limited. The domestic market has achieved a relay supply pattern between domestic and processed sugar. The upside of sugar prices later depends on consumption, with an expected operating range of 5700 - 6000 yuan per ton [2][20][22]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct band trading on Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou sugar futures trended higher with high basis and a shift from net short to net long positions in the main contracts, supported by fast sales and capital inflows. International sugar prices oscillated at low levels, rebounding after falling below 16 cents per pound but then being pressured by India's abundant supply expectations and dropping again [4]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - **Brazil**: In the second half of June, the sugar - to - cane ratio in South Brazil reached a record high of 53.15%, with a cumulative ratio of 51.02%, up 2.3 percentage points year - on - year. However, due to weather, the cane crushing volume was low. Considering the relatively low cane yield and sugar content and limited room for further increase in the sugar - to - cane ratio, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production may be reduced [6]. - **India**: Ample rainfall has led to high expectations for a large sugar harvest in the 2025/26 season. The USDA predicts India's sugar production will reach 35 million tons. As of mid - July 2025, India's sugar exports were 65 - 70 million tons, and the ISMA expects 80 million tons by the end of August, with 20 million tons of the quota unexported. The sugar industry requests an extension of the export license to December 31. If the harvest is good, India could export 100 - 150 million tons in the new year [9]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - **Sales progress**: In June, Guangxi sold 495.3 thousand tons of sugar, an increase of 77.3 thousand tons year - on - year, with an industrial inventory of 1.3244 million tons, a decrease of 330.8 thousand tons. Yunnan sold 195.3 thousand tons, a decrease of 66 thousand tons, with an industrial inventory of 667.6 thousand tons, an increase of 68.5 thousand tons. Some sugar mills in Guangxi have cleared their inventories, and the overall sales are ahead. Yunnan's inventory reduction is slower but is expected to improve in July [11][12]. - **Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 420 thousand tons of sugar, an increase of 390 thousand tons year - on - year, the highest in the past decade. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 1.04 million tons, a decrease of 260 thousand tons year - on - year. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative import was 2.51 million tons, a decrease of 600 thousand tons. Brazil accounted for 76% of raw sugar imports in the first half of 2025, and about one million tons of imported sugar are expected later. In June, the total import of syrups and sugar - containing premixes under certain tax codes was 115.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 103.2 thousand tons year - on - year. The import of 1702 - item syrups is shrinking, but Thai - flavored syrups and premixes show signs of growth [15][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - International sugar market has a supply - side overhang due to favorable supply prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries during the monsoon season, which keeps the raw sugar market price under pressure. In the domestic market, there is a divergence between domestic and foreign price strengths. The profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import pressure has been released. In June, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, suppressing sugar prices. On the demand side, during the summer consumption peak, the food and beverage industry has inventory replenishment needs, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, providing some support for prices. Overall, domestic demand is rising, domestic futures price performance is stronger than the overseas market, with multiple factors at play, and the market is expected to move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to keep an eye on arrivals at ports and summer consumption, and for now, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,866 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 342,009 lots, an increase of 9,969 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 20,940, down 158. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8,187 lots. The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,460 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,520 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,665 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,743 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Nanning, it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. Brazil's total sugar exports are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,480 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,420 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 275 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 197 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.79%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.79%, an increase of 1.34 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 4.62%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.92%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center reported that the average yield and quality of sugarcane in the central - southern region declined in June. On Wednesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.06%, while the domestic sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.69%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is favorable, and the expectation of oversupply has been weighing on the raw sugar market price [2].