美国总统特朗普日前表示，尽管他认为自己执政近一年来在经济方面取得了成功，但他所在的共和党仍 有可能在明年的国会中期选举中失利。 特朗普在美国《华尔街日报》13日刊出的专访中作出上述表示。他说，即便是那些执政非常成功的美国 总统，也曾在中期选举中遭遇挫败，"我们拭目以待会发生什么。我们应该会赢。但你知道，从统计角 度看，赢得中期选举是很困难的事情"。 特朗普称，他推行的经济政策，包括对进口产品征收广泛关税，正在创造就业机会、提振股市、吸引更 多投资进入美国。"我打造了史上最伟大的经济，但人们可能需要一些时间才能意识到这一点。" 目前，美国经济仍受到通胀冲击。在11月举行的地方选举中，选民因对美国经济不满，将"枪口"对准了 特朗普及共和党。民主党候选人拿下了最受关注的三场选举，分别当选弗吉尼亚州长、新泽西州长和纽 约市长。据路透社报道，在这些地区，选民对食品价格上涨等问题的担忧是一个关键话题。 自今年1月20日重返白宫以来，特朗普一直坚称美国经济在蓬勃发展，并将通胀责任归咎于前任拜登。 特朗普在《华尔街日报》的专访中说："我认为，到我们真正谈论选举的时候，也就是再过几个月，物 价水平会处于一个良好状态。" 美联社 ...

【深圳商报讯】(记者陈燕青)北京时间11日凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基 金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间。这也是美联储自今年9月以来连续第3次降息，幅度 均为25个基点。 美联储同时宣布，将启动短期国债购买计划，以此调节市场流动性水平，确保央行对自身利率目标体系 保持稳定控制。受此影响，美国股市三大指数12月10日全线收涨，美元指数则下跌0.43%。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，美联储的货币政策行动以促进美国民众充分就业和物价稳定的 双重使命为指导。目前联邦基金利率已处于中性利率的大致预估区间内，完全有条件静观经济走势的变 化。货币政策并非遵循预设路径，将在每次会议上根据实际情况作出决策。 浙商证券（601878）首席经济学家李超指出，即便美联储主席换人，在通胀压力制约下，2026年超预期 降息空间仍然有限，不宜有过高期待。伴随美国经济动能的转向，AI、美股、美国经济真正实现三位 一体，互相形成正反馈。继续看多未来美股走势。 中金公司（601995）宏观团队认为，美联储或将在2026年降息两次，但节奏趋于放缓，1月可能按兵不 动，下一次降息可能在3月。 摩 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. consumer prices have significantly decreased, but there is a stark contrast between the government's optimistic portrayal and the reality faced by ordinary families [1][2] - Trump claims that making the U.S. affordable again is a top priority, especially as midterm elections approach, indicating a growing concern among Republicans about voter sentiment [1] Price Changes - Some prices have decreased, such as gasoline and eggs, with eggs dropping from $5 to $3 per dozen [2] - However, housing costs have risen by 7.2% year-over-year, with average monthly rent for a standard apartment exceeding $2,000 [2] Public Sentiment - Many citizens express frustration on social media, highlighting that savings from reduced fuel and egg prices do not cover rising mortgage costs [3] - A recent poll shows Trump's approval rating has increased by 3 percentage points to 41%, yet 62% of respondents believe the economy is declining [6] Political Dynamics - Trump attributes economic concerns to the previous administration and the Federal Reserve's past interest rate policies, framing them as a Democratic "scam" [4] - The Democratic Party has capitalized on economic issues, achieving victories in local elections, which has prompted Republican leaders to pressure the White House to focus on domestic economic issues [6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates twice to stimulate the economy, currently at approximately 3.9%, while the inflation rate remains at 3%, exceeding the target of 2% [6] - The Fed faces a challenging situation of balancing employment stability and inflation control as midterm elections approach [6]

The Federal Reserve's December projections paint a surprisingly optimistic picture. After delivering a quarter-point rate cut, the US Fed forecasted that the American economy will showcase resilience, inflation levels will cool around 2% target, but interest rates may stay elevated through 2027. ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with market focus shifting to the voting distribution and the "dot plot" for future policy direction [1][2][3] - The potential for dissenting votes within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will indicate internal divisions regarding monetary policy [2] - The economic outlook, inflation risks, and policy flexibility will be critical points in Chairman Powell's upcoming press conference, influencing perceptions of whether the rate cut marks the beginning of a preventive easing cycle or a temporary policy adjustment [2][6] Group 2 - Recent economic data, including ADP employment figures and the PCE price index, strongly support the likelihood of a December rate cut, but future rate cut expectations remain uncertain [3][4] - The U.S. inflation rate is still above the Fed's 2% target, with the September PCE index showing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [4] - Consumer spending has shown signs of stagnation, with real disposable income remaining flat for two consecutive months, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming release of delayed employment, spending, and price data is expected to show rising unemployment and weak consumer spending, which could influence the Fed's policy decisions [5][6] - The labor market is showing signs of fatigue, but the prevailing view within the Fed is that this is a temporary dynamic rather than a fundamental decline in overall demand [6] - The Fed's future policy path will depend heavily on economic data, aiming to balance economic growth support with inflation risk management [6][7] Group 4 - The potential nomination of a new Fed chair, particularly a dovish candidate like Hassett, could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy stance, but any significant policy shifts will require broad consensus within the FOMC [8][9] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 are limited, with only about two cuts anticipated following the December reduction [9]

上周，黄金市场呈现出高位区间盘整的态势。周初，行情以4220.7开盘，随后先扬后抑。日线级别上， 金价一度攀升至4265.1的高点，但随后遭遇强势震荡回落。周内最低点触及4162，之后再次陷入区间波 动。最终，周线收盘于4196.3，以一根上影线稍长于下影线的纺锤形态结束。 美国财长斯科特.贝森特上周日表示，今年假日购物季至今表现"非常强劲"，并预计美国经济将以坚实 基础收官。他指出，经济实际表现超出预期，已连续两个季度实现4%的GDP增长；即便遭遇舒默引发 的政府停摆，全年仍有望以3%的实际GDP增速收尾。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 摘要今日周一(12月8日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4191美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4200.89美元/盎司，涨幅0.10%，最高上探至4211.27美元/盎司，最低触及4195.31美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周一(12月8日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4191美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报4200.89 美元/盎司，涨幅0.10%，最高上探至4211.27美元/盎司，最低触及4195.31美元/盎司。目前来看，国际黄 金短线偏 ...

二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国公布《国家安全战略》 多数发达国家国债利率大幅上行，有色价格大涨。 当周，标普500上涨0.3%，纳指上涨0.9%；10Y美债收 益率上行12.0bp至4.14%；美元指数下跌0.5%至98.98，离岸人民币升至7.0691；WTI原油上涨2.6%至60.1 美元/桶，COMEX黄金下跌0.6%至4197.6美元/盎司。 美国公布《国家安全战略》，系统阐述特朗普政府第二任期的外交与安全优先事项。 新战略将把保护美 国国土与西半球安全置于首位。对欧洲的衰落、人口变化持批评态度，要求欧洲必须为自身国防承担主 要成本；中东重要性被下调，强调避免再次卷入长期地面战争。 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国公布《国家安全战略》 （一）大类资产：多数发达国家国债利率大幅上行，有色价格大涨 当周，发达市场股指多数上涨、新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达市场股指方面，德国DAX、纳指、恒生 指数各上涨0.9%，英国富时100、法国CAC40分别下跌0.6%、0.1%；新兴市场股指方面，韩国综合指数、开 罗CASE30、胡志明指数分别上涨4.4%、3.6%、3.0%，巴西IBOVESPA指数、伊斯坦布尔 ...

被视为美联储主席候选人领跑者的白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，如果2026年第一季度和 第二季度经济增长率仅为3%，他会感到失望。"如果是3，我会失望。很容易就能高出一个百分点，" 哈 塞特在福克斯商业频道表示。他说，只要没有"随机黑天鹅"事件发生，他预计2026年将成为"美国经济 史上的黄金年份之一。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector experienced its largest job loss in nearly two and a half years in November, primarily driven by small businesses, indicating a general slowdown in hiring activity [2][3] - This marks the third instance of job losses in the private sector within four months, raising concerns about a potential increase in the unemployment rate and adverse economic impacts [2][3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may see the end of interest rate cut speculation due to these employment trends [2] Employment Market Analysis - According to the ADP report, 32,000 jobs were cut in November, the largest decline since March 2023, with small businesses losing 120,000 jobs [3] - Medium-sized businesses added 51,000 jobs, while large businesses increased their workforce by 39,000 [3] - The ADP report's significance has risen due to the recent government shutdown, which delayed the release of the official employment report [6][9] Economic Indicators - The ISM reported a further decline in overall manufacturing sentiment, with employment indicators contracting for ten consecutive months [7] - 67% of survey participants indicated that managing headcount is the norm rather than hiring new employees [7] - The ISM services index rose to 52.6, marking six months of growth, but hiring and investment remain cautious due to ongoing tariff uncertainties [7] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its final interest rate decision of the year next week, with labor market weakness being a primary concern [9][11] - Market expectations for a rate cut have increased significantly, with a nearly 90% probability priced in following the ADP report [9][11] - Some Federal Reserve officials express concerns about inflation, suggesting a divergence in views regarding future monetary policy [11]

11月26日公布的数据显示，美国至11月22日当周初请失业金人数从前值22.2万人略降至21.6万人。这反 映出美国就业市场并未出现严重恶化的状况。 不过，前期公布的最新美国失业率较前值略有上升。这反映出当前美国就业市场的不景气迹象。 近期美联储官员的讲话也反映出美联储重要官员在货币政策方面的严重分歧。不过，从近期市场对于美 联储态度的分析看，在12月的议息会议上美联储继续降息25个基点的可能性还是比较大的。 然而，未来美联储的货币政策走向存在着很大的不确定性，美国经济的走向也存在着很大的不确定性。 这使得美国资本市场处于一种迷茫和焦灼状态。 笔者认为，美国经济在不确定性中蕴含着巨大的风险，美国经济的前景不是一片光明，而是面临着风雨 雷暴，投资者需要持更加谨慎的态度。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 就业是美联储斟酌货币政策的重要的依据。另一方面，美联储还需要考量当前经济的通货膨胀状况。如 今，美联储面临着比较尴尬的情况，一方面美国就业市场出现疲软迹象，另一方面美国经济 ...