美国财长贝森特：美国经济重拾信心和动能。 基本面和总统特朗普的那些政策都"让人难以置信"。 ...

美国财长贝森特表示，美国经济重拾信心和动能。 ...

美国财长贝森特：美国经济正在恢复信心和动力。 ...

ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，招聘和薪酬数据大体上表明美国经济处于健康状态。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

基于上述原因，笔者怀疑美国经济反弹的持续性，对于美国经济前景持谨慎态度，且不排除一些"黑天 鹅事件"对于美国经济负面冲击的可能性的存在。 上述最新的美国经济数据反映出美国经济具有相当的韧性，就业市场乃至经济总量都出现了大幅反弹， 从前期的下行趋势中复苏过来。 不过，美国经济的上述这种复苏是否能够在未来延续，能够在多大程度上延续，这还存在着很大的不确 定性。 正如在先前文章中阐述的，笔者认为美国经济未来更大的可能性不是市场普遍担心的通货膨胀的反弹， 而是经济的加速下行。当前美国经济承受的负面压力不仅来源于特朗普总统的关税政策带来的巨大的不 确定性，也不仅来源于美联储持续将美国联邦基金利率水平维持在高位，更在于其深层次的顽疾所导致 的美国财政赤字高企和美国债务规模的不断膨胀。 7月30日公布的数据显示，美国第二季度GDP年化季率从前值-0.5%升至3%，不仅由负转正，还超过了 预期值2.4%。这就避免了美国经济陷入技术性衰退。同日公布的美国7月ADP就业人数也从前值-2.3万 人升至10.4万人。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy** and **U.S. Treasury market** analysis, with a focus on macroeconomic indicators and fiscal policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Shifts**: The global macro trading narrative in 2025 has shifted multiple times, influenced by factors such as Trump's policies and trade disputes, with a need to monitor the potential reversal risks associated with "Taco trading" [1][5][6]. 2. **Impact of Trump's Policies**: The passage of the "Big Beautiful Plan" has enhanced Trump's negotiation flexibility, particularly as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, which could influence market dynamics [1][8]. 3. **Consumer Spending as Economic Indicator**: Personal consumption accounts for over 60% of U.S. GDP, making it a critical focus for assessing economic trends through retail sales and consumer confidence indices [1][12][16]. 4. **Real Estate Market Challenges**: The U.S. real estate market is currently facing high interest rates and reduced housing demand, with new and existing home sales being key indicators to monitor [1][24][25]. 5. **Federal Reserve's Role**: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is primarily driven by inflation and employment factors, with potential interest rate cuts expected in response to labor market weaknesses [3][9][44]. 6. **Treasury Market Dynamics**: The U.S. Treasury market serves as a global asset pricing anchor, with significant portions held by international investors, impacting global interest rates and capital flows [10][11][38]. 7. **Trade Policy Implications**: Trump's trade policies are a significant variable in macro trading for 2025, with the U.S. experiencing trade deficits while maintaining a surplus in services [26]. 8. **Labor Market Resilience**: The labor market shows signs of resilience, with non-farm employment data and unemployment rates being crucial metrics for understanding economic health [27][28]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Confidence and Retail Data**: Retail sales and consumer confidence indices are vital for gauging economic performance, with soft data sometimes conflicting with hard data [20][21]. 2. **Inflation Indicators**: Recent increases in core consumer prices suggest that tariff policies may be influencing inflation, which could affect future Federal Reserve decisions [33][34]. 3. **Market Reactions to Economic Data**: The relationship between stock and bond markets indicates that rising yields can negatively impact equity valuations, highlighting the interconnectedness of asset classes [14]. 4. **Federal Budget Concerns**: The U.S. fiscal budget process is complex, with recent spending levels raising concerns about fiscal sustainability, particularly with the "Big Beautiful Plan" increasing the deficit ceiling [36]. 5. **Investment Strategies in Treasury Market**: Current strategies suggest a focus on short-term Treasury securities due to anticipated interest rate cuts, while long-term securities face greater uncertainty due to inflation risks [47].

"弱美元"：来到十字路口 20250728 摘要 Q&A 上半年美元走弱受美国经济增速下修幅度大于全球、特朗普关税政策冲 击及美联储降息预期影响。IMF 数据显示美国经济预测下调幅度较大， 关税政策力度强且不确定性高，通胀数据不及预期加剧降息预期。 下半年关税对美国经济的负面冲击预计减弱，二季度美国 GDP 数据表现 出韧性，就业市场稳定。需密切关注 CPI 中的结构性商品压力，通胀压 力或影响美联储降息决策。 美联储面临降息与推迟降息的双向风险，降息紧迫性来自政治压力，但 通胀水平不支持快速降息。货币政策的不确定性源于经济状况变化及特 朗普干预美联储独立性的风险。 美国赤字率较高时通常伴随弱美元，净利息支出占 GDP 比重上升也倾向 于导致美元走弱。CBO 预测未来美国利息支出占 GDP 比重将上升，暗 示财政压力下美元可能走弱。 2025 年美国关税收入预计达 2,500 亿美元，未来十年关税政策或增加 2.5 万亿美元收入。尽管"大而美法案"增加赤字，但关税收入可在一 定程度上缓解财政压力。 今年上半年美元汇率的表现如何？有哪些核心因素影响了美元的走势？ 今年上半年，美元呈现出弱势，美元指数大约在 98 ...

特朗普此次访问正值美国经济面临压力之际。根据美国商务部数据，2025年第一季度美国国内生产总值环比按年率计算萎缩0.3%，这 是近三年来首次出现萎缩。 消费支出增速从去年第四季度的4%大幅下滑至1.8%，企业投资虽然增长9.8%，但难以抵消进口激增和政府支出减少带来的拖累。 特朗普认为，将基准利率从当前的4.25%至4.50%下调至1%，可以为美国节省一万多亿美元的借贷成本，从而刺激经济增长。 鲍威尔多次强调，美联储的决策基于经济数据而非政治压力。他在访问中反驳特朗普关于翻修成本超支的指控，指出对方混淆了不同 项目的预算。这种针锋相对的场面，凸显了白宫与美联储之间的紧张关系。 值得注意的是，特朗普此次访问打破了美国总统不干预美联储独立性的传统。自1913年成立以来，美联储一直被视为独立于政治的机 构，其主席的任期与总统错开，以确保货币政策不受短期政治影响。 据央广网消息，美国总统特朗普日前造访美联储总部，这是近20年来美国总统首次正式访问该机构。 此次行程中，特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔就利率政策和建筑翻修成本问题展开交锋，鲍威尔在现场多次面无表情直摇头，引发外界对 美联储独立性的关注。 特朗普（资料图） 不过， ...

[Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 邮箱：wushuo@mszq.com ➢ 今年对于美国经济研究来说，最让我们"抓耳挠腮"的可能莫过于，辛辛苦 苦追踪了大半年大开大合的特朗普政策变化，数据显示的却是美国通胀淡定，经 济"艰难"放缓，美股创历史新高。而临近 8 月 1 日，关税 2.0"烽烟再起"，特 朗普似乎更加"有恃无恐"和游刃有余，因为截止当下"软着陆"数据真的给了 他"底气"，但"滞胀"的叙事真的下桌了吗？ 捉摸不透的需求（一）："外强中干"的美国消费？ 2025 年 07 月 27 日 ➢ 其实在 6 月，关税的传导已经开始在数据中若隐若现，但居民消费却展现出 异乎寻常的韧性。尤其是以汽车为代表的耐用品消费：特朗普充满不确定性的政 策似乎反而让美国居民汽车消费出现"以价换量"的表面繁荣，这并不太符合直 觉。而且值得关注的是美国产业维度上又陷入了明显的分化，制造 ...

Core Viewpoint - Raghuram Rajan warns that while the U.S. economy appears stable in the short term, multiple shocks will eventually manifest, necessitating careful observation to foresee upcoming impacts [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Policies - Rajan highlights that the current economic data and stock market performance, including the S&P 500 reaching a historical high, may provide the Trump administration with more leeway to implement aggressive policies such as increasing tariffs and expanding fiscal deficits [1] - The average actual tariff level in the U.S. has reportedly reached 20%, which is ten times higher than at the beginning of the year, indicating significant trade policy shifts [1][2] Group 2: Trade and Monetary Policy Concerns - The delayed impact of tariffs on economic data is attributed to the government's repeated extensions of negotiation deadlines and companies' proactive measures such as stockpiling and adjusting supply chains [2] - Rajan expresses concern over the Trump administration's interference in monetary policy, citing recent pressures on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which could undermine the Fed's independence [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Principles - Rajan criticizes the government's rejection of traditional economic principles such as central bank independence, low tariffs, and open markets, warning that these changes could lead to significant economic downturns [3] - He draws parallels between the current U.S. situation and the Brexit scenario, suggesting that the potential negative consequences of current policies may only become apparent over time, similar to the delayed effects seen in the U.K. post-Brexit [3]