Group 1: U.S. Economic Resilience - The U.S. economy is perceived to be declining, but underlying data suggests it remains robust, with several key indicators still strong [1][4] - U.S. consumer spending is a major driver of the global economy, accounting for approximately 68% of GDP with a real growth rate of 2.1% expected in 2025 [3][4] - The trade deficit, while seemingly negative, reflects borrowing for consumption, which enhances living standards and stimulates global trade [4][12] Group 2: Dollar Dominance - The U.S. dollar maintains a dominant position in global trade, with over 58% of foreign exchange reserves held in dollars and 88% of global foreign exchange transactions conducted in dollars [7][8] - The dollar's status is bolstered by the credibility of the U.S. financial system and its use in oil pricing, ensuring its continued relevance despite discussions of de-dollarization [8][12] - The dollar's strength is evident as it remains the preferred currency for international payments, with a significant share of global trade invoices denominated in dollars [7][8] Group 3: Corporate Influence - U.S. companies, particularly in technology, hold significant power in the global supply chain, with major firms like Apple and Microsoft leading in market capitalization and innovation [11][12] - The U.S. corporate sector is characterized by strong investment in technology and research, positioning it as a leader in AI and other advanced industries [11][12] - The presence of U.S. military bases worldwide provides a stable environment for American companies, enhancing their global operational security [12][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite challenges, the U.S. economy is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, outpacing many developed economies [14] - The advantages of the U.S. economy are the result of decades of strategic positioning, including trade deficits that provide access to cheaper goods and the dollar's financial dominance [14] - The resilience of the U.S. economy suggests it can withstand global slowdowns, with ongoing strength in consumer spending and corporate investment [14]

Core Insights - Investors are increasingly utilizing alternative data sources to understand the U.S. labor market and economy amid the government shutdown [1] Group 1 - The reliance on alternative data is growing as traditional economic indicators may be less reliable during the shutdown [1] - Investors are seeking innovative ways to analyze labor market trends without access to government data [1] - The shift towards alternative data reflects a broader trend in investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of real-time information [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government has officially shut down due to the Senate's rejection of bipartisan funding bills, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees and halting various government services [2][4]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Details - The shutdown began at 12:01 AM on October 1, following the Senate's failure to pass funding bills, marking the first government closure in nearly seven years [2][4]. - The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has instructed agencies to implement their "orderly shutdown" plans, with certain departments like the military and law enforcement remaining operational [5][6]. - Approximately 800,000 federal employees are expected to face unpaid leave, and many government services, including passport and immigration processing, will be delayed or suspended [9][10]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The government shutdown is projected to cost the U.S. economy about $7 billion per week, with delayed federal employee salaries likely impacting consumer spending [10]. - The uncertainty surrounding the shutdown may exacerbate market volatility and increase borrowing costs for the government if the shutdown extends and intertwines with debt ceiling discussions [10]. Group 3: Capital Market Effects - The imminent government shutdown is likely to delay the release of non-farm payroll data, which could affect the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rate cuts in October [12]. - Investors are increasingly seeking safe-haven assets like gold and silver, leading to record high prices for these commodities amid rising uncertainty [12][13].

部分行业会在"停摆"中受到严重冲击。美国旅游协会首席执行官杰夫·弗里曼表示，"停摆"一周将导致旅游业损失10亿美元。美国国家公 园保护协会估计，国家公园在"停摆"期间关闭，每天损失100万美元门票收入，周边商户每天损失7700万美元。 另外，美国政府此前"停摆"还出现过相关机构无法签发出口证书导致大量产品在港口滞留、数百份钻井许可证无法处理影响能源生产等情 况。 在市场层面，"停摆"会导致劳工统计局等主管经济数据发布的机构关门，如果时间较长，可能影响就业报告、通胀等关键数据的发布。市 场人士普遍担心，这种状况会影响投资者对美国经济的判断，从而加大美债、美元汇率波动，甚至影响美国联邦储备委员会的货币政策决策。 在个人生活层面，每次"停摆"都会带来大量政府工作人员工资拖延、"被休假"等情况。美国联邦政府近期表示，不排除"停摆"会导致部分 岗位遭遇"永久性"裁员。这也是美国联邦政府首次在面临"停摆"危机时宣称会因此裁员。 央视网消息：当地时间9月30日，美国国会参议院就政府临时拨款法案进行表决，若无法通过，联邦政府将于当地时间10月1日0时停摆。 届时，数十万联邦工作人员将被迫无薪休假，美国经济数据的发布也将受到影 ...

Group 1 - The overall market trends for the past week aligned with previous expectations, with the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and crude oil showing rebounds, while US stocks experienced a slight decline [2][25] - Key US economic indicators showed resilience, including initial jobless claims dropping to 218,000, below the expected 233,000, and PCE inflation aligning with forecasts [3][4] - The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index rebounded significantly, indicating a strong economic backdrop, although short-term interest rates lag behind the improving fundamentals [5][10] Group 2 - Upcoming focus for the market includes the US labor market, with significant data releases such as ISM Manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls expected to show notable rebounds compared to September [7][10] - The US dollar and interest rates are expected to continue their upward trend, with short-term rates rebounding from 2.9% to 3.17% [11][10] - The Federal Reserve's dot plot suggests potential rate cuts in 2025, with a reasonable range for US interest rates projected between 3.25% and 3.5% [13][15] Group 3 - US stock markets faced selling pressure from hedge funds, attributed to profit-taking and quarterly rebalancing, but this pressure is expected to ease as October approaches [20][21] - The upcoming earnings season is crucial, with market expectations for earnings growth around 6%, lower than the previous quarter's 11% growth, indicating a potential for positive surprises [24][23] - The current market valuation has increased, with forward P/E ratios rising from 21 to 23, suggesting that further upward movement in stock prices will require earnings growth to support valuations [23][25]

Core Points - The impending U.S. government shutdown may hinder policymakers, business leaders, and investors from accessing critical economic data needed to assess the U.S. economy [1] - If Congress fails to reach an agreement by the end of the fiscal year, many federal agencies will cease operations, and the Labor Statistics Bureau will stop releasing key economic data [1][2] - The delay in the release of employment, inflation, and consumer data could disrupt key policy decisions, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][4] Economic Data Impact - Key economic indicators scheduled for release, such as the monthly jobs report and consumer price index (CPI), are at risk of being delayed due to the shutdown [2][3] - The Labor Department has indicated that all operations and data collection will pause during the budget funding interruption, affecting the timely release of economic data [2] - Historical context shows that during previous shutdowns, the Labor Statistics Bureau was forced to delay the release of important reports, impacting economic assessments [3] Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, and the lack of updated government data will complicate the justification for further interest rate cuts [4] - Some Federal Reserve officials are cautious about rate cuts and prefer to wait for more data before making decisions [4] - The uncertainty caused by the government shutdown is expected to increase economic costs and hinder growth, according to business leaders [4]

Investors appeared to be taking the risk of a looming government shutdown on Wednesday in stride, choosing to focus on more positive developments such as the strength of the U.S. economy. ...

Group 1 - A weakening U.S. labor market poses risks for both the U.S. economy and markets [1] - The rate of new jobs created and the official unemployment rate are critical metrics but do not provide a complete picture of the labor market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The next - stage monetary policy may focus on maintaining ample liquidity while preventing the use of liquidity for long - bond speculation. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield may stabilize around the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the DR007 rate's fluctuation center may approach the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. The upward adjustment pressure on long - term yields may ease, but reasons for a downward trend are insufficient [3]. - The US 2Q GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, but the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. The US GDP growth may slow down. The US PCE inflation expanded in August, but the sustainability of consumer demand expansion is questionable. If the Fed cuts interest rates slowly, it may later be forced to cut them faster [3]. - The producer price index continued to decline month - on - month. The average wholesale price of pork and the price index of edible agricultural products decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in September 2025 was slightly lower than that in September 2024 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Prudence Perspective on Long - Term Yields - The third - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee proposed to strengthen the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, observe and evaluate the bond market from a macro - prudent perspective, and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. The next - stage monetary policy may focus on maintaining liquidity while preventing long - bond speculation [3]. - The 1 - year Treasury bond yield approaching the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate may reflect the market's expectation of no interest rate cuts or hikes. The DR007 rate's fluctuation center is higher than the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. To cooperate with fiscal policies, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield may stabilize around the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the DR007 rate may further approach it. The upward adjustment pressure on long - term yields may ease, but a downward trend is unlikely [3]. 3.2 US GDP Data Revision and PCE Price Increase - The US 2Q GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, but the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. Given the slowdown in non - farm employment growth, US GDP growth may slow down [3]. - The year - on - year increase in the US PCE price in August expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%. The expansion of PCE inflation was mainly due to the rebound in the nominal growth rate of personal consumption, but the consumer confidence index in September dropped. The sustainability of consumer demand expansion is questionable. If the Fed cuts interest rates slowly, it may later be forced to cut them faster [3]. 3.3 Producer Price Index and Commodity Prices - In the week of September 27, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.94% month - on - month and 25.25% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 32.56% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products in the week of September 19 decreased by 0.10% month - on - month and 13.24% year - on - year [3]. - Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 1.50% and 1.02% respectively on average week - on - week. The average weekly price of LME copper spot increased by 0.74%, and that of aluminum decreased by 1.95%. The copper - gold ratio decreased by 1.53% week - on - week [3]. - The domestic cement price index increased by 2.03% week - on - week, the South China iron ore index decreased by 0.04% on average week - on - week, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 0.16% week - on - week, the inventory of rebar decreased by 2.75% week - on - week, and the rebar price index increased by 0.18% week - on - week. The producer price index in the week of September 19 decreased by 0.20% month - on - month and 5.11% year - on - year [3]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 21.8 million square meters per day, slightly lower than the 22.9 million square meters per day in September 2024 [3]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents various high - frequency data, including domestic long - and short - term interest rate indicators, US non - farm employment and economic growth, US personal consumption growth, and high - frequency data's week - on - week changes [3][11][14]. - It also shows the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators, important high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe, the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, and high - frequency traffic data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [6].

Core Insights - Consumer sentiment in the U.S. decreased to 55.1 in September from 58.2 in August, marking the lowest level since May and falling below the historical benchmark of 100 [1] Summary by Category - **Consumer Sentiment** - The decline in consumer sentiment indicates a negative shift in Americans' views on the economic outlook [1] - The current reading of 55.1 is significantly lower than the historical average, suggesting increased economic pessimism among consumers [1] - This decline may have implications for consumer spending and overall economic growth moving forward [1]