Core Insights - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti highlighted the ongoing uncertainty regarding the impact of global tariffs on the US economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] - The belief remains that the US economy will continue to grow, but inflation issues and their influence on Federal Reserve policy are still unknown [1] - The market generally anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve during the meeting on September 16-17, but there is divergence among investors regarding the pace of subsequent policy adjustments [1] - Ermotti stated that the true impact of tariffs will be felt by consumers, and it remains unclear whether tariffs will lead to inflationary effects [1]

Group 1 - The Beige Book is a key report released by the Federal Reserve that provides insights into the current economic conditions in the U.S. through qualitative data gathered from various business contacts [2][3] - The report is expected to focus on three main areas: employment and wages, inflation and consumer behavior, and regional economic disparities [4][5][6] Group 2 - The Beige Book serves as a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly for the upcoming September meeting [7] - Market reactions to the report will vary based on its tone; a dovish report may strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting U.S. stocks and gold, while a hawkish report may weaken those expectations and support the U.S. dollar [8] - A neutral report is likely to result in a subdued market response as investors await further data [9] Group 3 - Investors are advised to avoid emotional trading based on the report's immediate impact and instead focus on long-term strategies [10] - Incorporating the qualitative insights from the Beige Book with quantitative data from other economic indicators can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the economic landscape [11]

Group 1 - The latest Federal Reserve "Beige Book" indicates that both employment and consumer spending in the U.S. are under pressure due to tariffs, leading to a slowdown in hiring and investment by businesses, while consumers are tightening their spending in response to rising prices [1][2] - The report highlights that all Federal Reserve districts have experienced price increases related to tariffs, which have raised production costs for businesses and increased the cost of living for consumers [1][2] - Many businesses across various Federal Reserve districts express concerns about the economic outlook, with worries about trade policy changes, high interest rates, and stricter immigration policies [1] Group 2 - Consumers are facing a dual challenge of rising prices and reduced employment, with wage growth not keeping pace with inflation, particularly as companies adjust labor costs in response to tariffs [2] - The "Beige Book" reveals increasing economic uncertainty, with the term "uncertainty" mentioned 80 times, reflecting a more cautious decision-making environment for both businesses and consumers [2]

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve's Beige Book presents a complex and differentiated picture of the U.S. economy, highlighting stagnation or contraction in most regions, with weak consumer spending, rising business costs, and policy uncertainty as major challenges [1] Consumer Spending - Nationwide consumer spending is showing signs of weakness, with households facing increased burdens from fixed expenses like insurance and utilities, squeezing discretionary spending [2] - Retail and tourism sectors are responding to declining demand with widespread discounting strategies, particularly in price-sensitive product categories [2] - A decrease in international tourist numbers is further hindering the recovery of tourism-related industries [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector is undergoing significant transformation in response to rising raw material costs due to tariffs and global supply chain restructuring [3] - Companies are accelerating the shift towards localized sourcing and increasing investments in automation to reduce labor costs [3] - The commercialization of artificial intelligence technology is a highlight, with a surge in demand for data center construction in cities like Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Chicago, driving hardware manufacturing expansion [3] Labor Market - The employment market is exhibiting a delicate balance, with stable employment levels in 11 regions and slight declines in a few [4] - In a weak demand environment, companies are delaying hiring and optimizing workforce through natural attrition and technological replacements [4] - A significant reduction in immigration is impacting industries like construction, particularly in immigrant-heavy areas such as New York and St. Louis, leading to labor shortages [4] - While half of the regions report moderate wage growth, concerns remain about wage increases not keeping pace with inflation [4] Regional Economic Performance - Economic performance varies significantly across Federal Reserve districts, with Boston experiencing slight expansion driven by the AI sector, while Atlanta shows mild contraction despite a vibrant energy sector [5] - Dallas benefits from a rebound in durable goods orders, boosting manufacturing, whereas Minneapolis and San Francisco face simultaneous weaknesses in manufacturing and agriculture [5] - The commercial real estate market is also uneven, with strong demand for quality office and warehouse spaces, but rising vacancy rates in ordinary retail properties [5] Price Trends - Approximately 90% of regions report moderate to moderate price increases, with two regions experiencing input cost surges that exceed end-product price increases [6] - The effects of tariffs are particularly evident in basic construction materials like lumber and metals, prompting contractors to reassess project feasibility [6] - Most companies anticipate further price increases in the coming months, indicating ongoing cost transmission mechanisms [6] Policy Environment - The Beige Book underscores multiple constraints facing the U.S. economy in the late expansion phase, including high interest rates suppressing housing market activity, fiscal policy uncertainty disrupting business investment plans, and geopolitical risks raising trade costs [7] - Federal Reserve policymakers are confronted with challenging trade-offs, needing to prevent economic recession while curbing persistent high inflation [7] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming monetary policy meeting and whether it will signal a shift towards a more dovish stance [7]

AJ Bell投资专家拉斯•莫尔德、丹尼•休森和丹•科茨沃思表示："一些人认为7月份非农的数据和修正意 味着美国经济已开始走软。人们最开始会把八月份数据与7月份初值作比较，但关注焦点将迅速转移到 对6月和7月数据的进一步修正上。考虑到特朗普的关税声明带来的不确定性，以及延长最后期限和谈判 的方式，美国企业在第二季度不愿做出重大的就业或投资决定，这是完全可以理解的。因此，随着贸易 协议的达成、最终关税水平的确定，以及企业对新世界的面貌有了清晰的认识，这些数字可能会在第三 和第四季度迅速回升。" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, with Trump's return to the White House, U.S. policies have shifted significantly, increasing market attention to U.S. economic and financial trends. The report aims to build an analysis framework for tracking the U.S. economy, focusing on the core economic indicators of the U.S. household sector [2][11]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to U.S. GDP reached a record - high of 4.99%, mainly driven by a sharp decrease in imports. However, after excluding the contribution of net exports, the real GDP growth rate was - 2.0%, indicating a severe decline in domestic demand [28]. - The significant downward revision of non - farm data may be due to large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year, which affected data collection efficiency and increased the risk of statistical errors. There may also be other systematic factors [3][125]. - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In the optimistic, benchmark, and pessimistic scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4]. - In the "stagflation - like" situation, the Fed is in a dilemma. Powell signaled a 25bp interest rate cut in September, but the evolution of non - farm employment and inflation data in August needs to be verified. The report maintains the benchmark assumption of two 25bp interest rate cuts in September and December [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Five - Sector Perspective on the U.S. Economy Observation Starting Point - The report divides the U.S. economy into five core sectors: government, enterprise, household, finance, and overseas sectors. The household and enterprise sectors form the core "employment - consumption" cycle, and the government participates in resource reallocation [12]. 3.2 U.S. Q2 GDP: The "Apparent Prosperity" Driven by Net Exports - The U.S. GDP is calculated and released by the BEA. There are three estimates for each quarter, and annual overhauls are conducted in July. The GDP data is also seasonally adjusted [16]. - From 2020 - 2023, the U.S. GDP revision was large due to the impact of the pandemic. Since H2 2024, the revision has gradually converged, but the "reciprocal tariff" policy may cause the revision to increase again [17]. - Personal consumption expenditure is the most important component of U.S. GDP, with a long - term upward - trending share and a significant driving effect on economic growth. Net exports have a continuous negative contribution to GDP growth [24]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP reached a record high, mainly due to a 15.1% month - on - month decrease in imports and a 1.7% increase in exports, narrowing the trade deficit by 50.8%. However, domestic demand declined seriously after excluding the contribution of net exports [28]. 3.3 Consumption Research Framework Based on Household Income and Expenditure - The U.S. consumption research can start from the income and expenditure of residents. Income is divided into five parts, with laborer compensation accounting for 57% and transfer payment income accounting for 18% in June 2025 [32]. - Personal disposable income is obtained by subtracting government social security contributions and personal current taxes from total income. From August 2023 to June 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of personal disposable income decreased significantly, weakening residents' consumption ability and confidence [33]. - U.S. personal consumption expenditure is divided into goods and services consumption. Since 2022, service consumption has made a greater contribution to GDP. In June 2025, the actual personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with goods consumption increasing by 2.9% and service consumption increasing by 1.7% [38][40]. - Retail sales data shows that in June 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month retail sales increased, with miscellaneous goods retailers being the main driving force [45]. - The U.S. personal savings rate has fallen to 4.5%, lower than the pre - pandemic average. In the future, the savings rate may continue to rise, suppressing short - term consumption growth [51]. - Third - party data such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Redbook Retail Sales Index can be used to verify U.S. consumption conditions. The overall consumption growth in the U.S. is slowing down [53][61]. 3.4 How to Track U.S. Employment after the "Non - Farm" Data Distortion 3.4.1 Employment Research Framework Based on Supply and Demand Sides - There are many employment - related data in the U.S., including JOLTS, CES, ADP, CPS, and UI. These data have different sample scopes, core indicators, advantages, and frequencies [63]. - JOLTS provides supplementary information on the demand side of the labor market. The job vacancy rate reflects the shortage of labor. Since 2022, the gap between job vacancies and hiring has narrowed, and the resignation rate has continued to decline [67][73][76]. - CES (non - farm data) has a wide coverage. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs was lower than expected, and the data for May and June was significantly revised downward. The hourly wage of the private sector increased, increasing inflation pressure [78][86]. - ADP data is based on real payroll records of private - sector employees, covering more than 25 million employees. It is released two days earlier than CES and can be used to perceive private - sector employment trends [91]. - CPS is a household - based survey that provides information on labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and other indicators. In July, the labor force participation rate declined for four consecutive months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [93][104]. - The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report provides high - frequency data on initial and continued claims for unemployment benefits, which can be used to predict economic inflection points [108]. 3.4.2 How Credible is the Non - Farm Data? - In May - June this year, the non - farm employment data was significantly revised downward, and the deviation of the revision reached a new high since 2010. The reasons given by the BLS are insufficient to fully explain the large - scale revision [116]. - It is more likely that large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year affected data collection efficiency, and there may be other systematic factors. The credibility of non - farm employment data has declined, and multiple independent data should be used for cross - verification [125]. 3.5 U.S. Inflation Monitoring and Tariff Impact Assessment 3.5.1 Inflation Status Monitoring and Expectation Analysis Framework - The report analyzes U.S. inflation from two aspects: status monitoring (focusing on CPI and PCE) and expectation analysis (introducing BEI and 5Y - 5Y BEI) [126]. - CPI and PCE are two core consumer inflation indicators. PCE is generally lower than CPI because of its chain - type update and wider coverage. The Fed prefers PCE [126][127]. - Core services are the main driver of U.S. inflation. In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of service CPI was 2.18%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.18% [130]. 3.5.2 Import Structure Split and Tariff Calculation: U.S. PCE May Face Phased Upward Pressure - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In different scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that while the U.S. GDP data showed a rebound in the second quarter, this was primarily due to a slowdown in imports following the implementation of tariffs, suggesting that the underlying structure of GDP growth is not ideal [1] Economic Indicators - The current core economic indicators in the U.S., including consumption and investment growth rates, reflect a deceleration in economic momentum [1] - It is anticipated that U.S. consumer spending and private investment growth rates will continue to face downward pressure due to the ongoing impact of Trump's tariff policies [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic data shows resilience, but risks in the labor market are also emerging. The path of the Fed's monetary policy remains highly uncertain. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly cooled, the overall sentiment still leans towards easing. Gold and silver prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the near term [9][10] Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: The preliminary U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The Services PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rise in manufacturing pushed the Composite PMI to a nine - month high of 55.4 [2] - **Employment Market**: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - **Monetary Policy**: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she would not support an interest rate cut at the September meeting if a decision were to be made tomorrow. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market bets a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and a 25% probability of keeping rates unchanged [2] Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.50 yuan/gram and closed at 775.12 yuan/gram, a 0.32% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 776.00 yuan/gram and closed at 776.08 yuan/gram, a 0.12% increase from the afternoon close [3] - **Silver Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,133.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,162.00 yuan/kg, a 1.33% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 311,338 lots, and the open interest was 307,098 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,187 yuan/kg and closed at 9,233 yuan/kg, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon close [3] U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 21, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.324%, up 0.78 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.536%, up 0.15 basis points from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - **Gold**: On the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions remained unchanged from the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 165,742 lots, a 21.33% decrease from the previous trading day [5] - **Silver**: On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 492,092 lots, a 38.67% decrease from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 956.77 tons yesterday, a decrease of 1.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,277.52 tons, a decrease of 28.24 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage - **Spot - Futures Spread**: On August 21, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 11.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 865.92 yuan/kg [7] - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE yesterday was approximately 84.60, a 1.00% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.73, a 2.34% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 19,030 kg, a 36.74% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 275,676 kg, a 43.40% decrease from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 4,582 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 18,510 kg [8] Strategies - **Gold**: It is expected that the gold price will remain in a volatile pattern in the near term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 750 yuan/gram and 790 yuan/gram [9] - **Silver**: The silver price is also expected to be volatile, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,000 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg [10] - **Arbitrage**: Short the gold - silver ratio when it is high [10] - **Options**: Postpone [10]

Economic Overview - The article discusses the prediction by US Treasury Secretary that the Chinese economy is on the verge of collapse due to the real estate sector's hard landing, but argues that this view is misguided [1][16] - Current issues in the Chinese economy include declining real estate, massive local debt, overcapacity, declining birth rates, and income inequality [1][16] Economic Fundamentals - China's economic fundamentals are strong, with the highest trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves globally, as well as the lowest central government debt ratio [1][16] - The total household savings in China is approximately 160 trillion yuan, with net savings around 80 trillion yuan, indicating a strong capacity to endure economic fluctuations [1][2] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China has seen a decline for four years, with some areas experiencing a 50% drop in prices, but this has not led to a panic sell-off as seen in the US [4][5] - The stability in the Chinese real estate market is attributed to the high cash flow and savings of the population, which prevents a hard landing [17][18] Urbanization and Debt - China's rapid urbanization has led to a significant increase in local government debt, exceeding 100 trillion yuan, as cities expanded quickly to accommodate rural populations [12][13] - The government is now focusing on controlling new debt and revitalizing existing assets to manage this debt effectively [20][21] Policy Responses - The government is addressing issues such as local debt, overcapacity, and declining birth rates through various policies, including limiting urban expansion and promoting orderly exit of excess capacity [22][23] - Recent initiatives to boost birth rates include financial subsidies for families and free preschool education [23][24] Economic Transition - The article emphasizes that the challenges faced by the Chinese economy are a result of rapid development and that solutions will take time, with gradual improvements expected over the next few years [47][61] - The shift in resource allocation from manufacturing to consumer support is underway, indicating a transition in economic strategy [44][46] Comparison with the US - The US economy also faces significant challenges, but its strong monetary policy and the ability to print dollars provide a buffer against economic crises [50][52] - The article suggests that while both economies have their issues, China's economic fundamentals remain robust compared to the US, which may face greater internal instability [62][63]

Group 1: Urea Futures - The urea futures price soared on August 19, with the main contract rising by 62 yuan, or 3.53%, to close at 1789 yuan. The surge was mainly due to the unexpectedly high tender offer for urea imports by India's IPL company [3]. - On the supply side, the daily output of the urea industry remained at a high level of 190,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 50 tons on August 5), the total enterprise inventory climbed to 917,300 tons (a week - on - week increase of 58,500 tons on July 30), and the production enterprise operating rate was 84.93% (a week - on - week increase of 1.58%), indicating high supply elasticity [3]. - On the demand side, it showed the characteristics of "weak domestic demand and uncertain exports". The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants in North and Central China increased slowly, the raw material inventory could be used for about 7 days, and the purchasing willingness was low. Agricultural demand entered a seasonal off - season, and the grass - roots stocking willingness was lacking. Although the export port inspection policy was relaxed, the actual order conversion had not increased significantly [3]. - There are differences in the market regarding the subsequent trend. The bearish view believes that urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the abundant supply pattern remains unchanged, expecting a weakening oscillation. The cautiously optimistic group points out that the current price is not high, the room for continuous decline is limited, and although one should not be overly optimistic about the upside, the export theme may still ferment [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures - News: Li Qiang proposed to further improve the implementation efficiency of macro - policies and stabilize market expectations. Many securities brokerage business departments saw a peak in customer consultations [7]. - Operation: The short - term market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level [7]. Group 3: Gold - The July non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the data for May and June, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of an interest rate cut in September has increased, which is beneficial to gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation on a platform [11]. Group 4: Iron Ore - The fundamentals are relatively strong as steel mills' profitability has improved, leading to high pig iron production. Also, under the call against involution, the state of the black industrial chain is relatively healthy, showing a resonance upward trend [15][16]. - Technically, it continued to adjust today, and it should be treated as a high - level wide - range oscillation in the near future [15]. Group 5: Glass - The macro - environment has improved and is continuously strengthening under the recovery expectation. The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The recent market drive mainly comes from the domestic economy [19][20]. - Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [19]. Group 6: Methanol - Last week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas in East China increased slightly due to a small amount of re - exports and ship departures, the stable supply of foreign vessels led to continuous inventory accumulation. It should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view [22].