Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The apple cold storage inventory this year is at a low level, the lowest since 2019. So, the apple supply in the market is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The current market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which supports the apple price. Also, the windy, hot, and dry weather in the western producing areas in April of the new fruit season has affected the fruit - setting in some areas. Overall, the apple price is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly upwards [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Zeus apple price index was 107.62, down 0.02 from the previous day. The price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples rose 0.45 to 4.75. The prices of Qixia, Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples and Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 apples remained unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.95, up 0.03 [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 was 7674, down 98 from the previous close; AP05 was 7625, down 247; AP10 was 7744, down 93. The spreads AP01 - AP05, AP05 - AP10, and AP10 - AP01 also changed [3]. - **Price Differences**: The price differences between Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples and AP01, AP05, AP10 all increased [3]. Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas was 228.86 tons, a decrease of 37.91 tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year low [4]. - **Trade Data**: In March 2024, the fresh apple export volume was about 9.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 25.56 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In March 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.7% and a year - on - year increase of 167.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.33 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [6]. - **Market Transactions**: The mainstream transaction prices in the producing areas remained stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants decreased, and most of them purchased according to demand. The storage merchants were more willing to sell, but the asking prices were still high, supporting the price. The overall cold storage trading volume decreased, and the shipping speed slowed down. The market arrivals decreased slightly, and the sales were stable [6]. - **Profit**: The profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.9 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.2 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - **Spot Price in Shandong**: The apple price in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples was 3.5 - 3.8 yuan per catty, and the striped ones were 3.5 - 4.5 yuan per catty. The price of merchant's slice - red apples was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, and the striped ones were 4.0 - 5.0 yuan per catty. The price of bulk apples was 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per catty, and the third - grade merchant's apples were 2.5 - 3.0 yuan per catty. The price of 70 apples was 2.5 - 2.7 yuan per catty, and the transactions were average [7]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Short - term, go long on AP10 at low prices. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 05 月 07 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日份格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | F-工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 相 | | | 宮千卒業外掲指数 | 103.65 | 103.65 | 0.00 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.69 | 7.63 | 0.06 | | 期货价格 | | | | | ...