瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 苹果市场周报 多空因素交织，苹果宽幅震荡 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 关 注 微信服 务 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况及期权 4、期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周苹果期货2510价格上涨，周度上涨1.92%。 行情展望：新季苹果方面，产区套袋工作收尾，产量问题逐渐明朗，根据市场对 陕西苹果主产区坐果和套袋情况调研来看，陕西今年坐果套袋情况较去年同期减 产幅度不会特别大，预计在5%-10%。截至2025年6月18日，全国主产区苹果冷库 库存量为116.49万吨，环比上周减少10.97万吨，走货速度较上周基本持平，同比 去年同期有所减缓。山东产区库容比为16.43%，较上周减少0.86%，去库速度环 比减慢。山东产区目前处于农忙阶段，整体交易清淡。陕西产区库容比为8.9%， 较上周减少0.76%，走货较上周表现略慢。其他水果竞争和替代增加，苹果需求清 单，走货速度放缓，而且农忙结束后，果农卖货意愿或有所好转，令苹果价格承 压，不过当前库存较低，对价格仍有支撑， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the downstream demand for apples remained weak. The increase in the variety and volume of seasonal fruits had a significant impact on apples. The off - season trading in apple - producing areas was poor, and the purchase volume of merchants decreased. The new - season apple bagging is mostly in the later stage, and attention should be paid to bagging data and weather conditions. It is predicted that the price of apple futures in June will likely maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [6][15]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies Spot Analysis - The downstream demand for apples was weak. Seasonal fruits had a significant impact on apples, and the off - season trading in apple - producing areas was poor. In Shandong, the trading focused on high - cost - effective goods, and in the west, merchants mostly shipped by themselves. The new - season apple bagging was mostly in the later stage. In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade sliced red apples was 3.80 - 4.00 yuan/jin, etc. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price of orchard - owner's general goods starting from 70 was 4.3 - 4.5 yuan/jin, etc [6]. Supply Analysis - As of June 12, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 8.93%, down 0.66 percentage points in this period, and 5.06 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 14.40%, down 1.01 percentage points, and in Shaanxi it was 8.35%, down 0.66 percentage points. The cold - storage trading volume in both regions was small [11]. Demand Analysis - The recent combined apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao was average, with 46 - 59 trucks this week. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on June 13 was 7.78 yuan/kg, slightly down from last Friday. The profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia from 2024 - 2025 was 0.9 yuan/jin, unchanged from last week. The market arrival volume decreased, the mainstream price was stable, and the price of high - quality goods in Gansu increased. The demand for apples was weak due to the increase in seasonal fruits and rising temperatures [14]. Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The low inventory of this season's apples is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples such as Gala. The windy and hot weather in April affected the fruit - setting in parts of Shaanxi. It is predicted that the apple futures price in June will likely maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. - Single - side: Build long positions in AP10 at low levels in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [15]. Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - Data on apple export, planting area, consumption, etc., from 2018 - 2023 were presented, but specific data descriptions were not detailed in the summary part [18]. Inventory and Shipment - As of June 12, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 8.93%, and the inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi cold - storages decreased. The cold - storage trading volume was small, and the shipment speed slowed down [11]. Spread and Basis - Data on 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 10 - 1 spread, and 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis from 2019 - 2025 were presented in the form of charts, but specific data descriptions were not detailed in the summary part [25].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 06 月 10 日 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 张跌 | | 成 | | | | | | 相 | | | 宮干菜苗(y铝铝 | 111.68 | 111.63 | 0.05 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.61 | 7.73 | -0.12 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | | | 指标 | रेनरि | 昨收 | 器鉄 | 指标 | रेनरि | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | AP01 | 7439 | 7400 | 3d | AP01- ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货苹果月报 时令水果冲击需求，苹果盘面高位回落 苹果 2025 年 05 月 25 日 主要结论 供应端来看，卓创资讯公布了最新一期冷库库存数据，据卓创资讯统计，截 至 2025 年 5 月 22 日，全国冷库库存量约为 148.24 万吨，较去年同期减少 114.08 万吨，低于往年同期水平。分产区来看，山东产区冷库库存量约 86.41 万吨，陕 西产区冷库剩余量约 40.14 万吨。整体来看，产区库存量偏低，但随着气温逐渐 升高，冷库苹果存储成本增加，产区有一定出货压力。 需求端来看，据卓创资讯统计，截至 2025 年 5 月 22 日，全国冷库库存比例 约为 11.22%，环比下降 1.33 个百分点，同比下滑 8.46 个百分点，去库存率为 82.36%。根据海关总署公布的数据，2025 年 4 月鲜苹果出口量约为 7.26 万吨， 环比减少 24.41%，同比减少 1.77%。 分析师：黎静宜 从业资格号：F3082440 投资咨询号：Z0019052 电话：021-55007766-305180 邮箱：15561@guosen.com.cn 国信期货交易咨询业务资 ...

研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 05 月 15 日 F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上一工作日价 指标 | 今日价格 | | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日份 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 宮千卒業が掲指数 | 108.14 | 107.62 | 0.52 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.80 | 4.75 | 0.05 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.84 | 7.95 | -0.11 | | 期货价格 | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The apple cold storage inventory this year is at a low level, the lowest since 2019. So, the apple supply in the market is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The current market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which supports the apple price. Also, the windy, hot, and dry weather in the western producing areas in April of the new fruit season has affected the fruit - setting in some areas. Overall, the apple price is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly upwards [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Zeus apple price index was 107.62, down 0.02 from the previous day. The price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples rose 0.45 to 4.75. The prices of Qixia, Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples and Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 apples remained unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.95, up 0.03 [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 was 7674, down 98 from the previous close; AP05 was 7625, down 247; AP10 was 7744, down 93. The spreads AP01 - AP05, AP05 - AP10, and AP10 - AP01 also changed [3]. - **Price Differences**: The price differences between Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples and AP01, AP05, AP10 all increased [3]. Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas was 228.86 tons, a decrease of 37.91 tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year low [4]. - **Trade Data**: In March 2024, the fresh apple export volume was about 9.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 25.56 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In March 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.7% and a year - on - year increase of 167.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.33 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [6]. - **Market Transactions**: The mainstream transaction prices in the producing areas remained stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants decreased, and most of them purchased according to demand. The storage merchants were more willing to sell, but the asking prices were still high, supporting the price. The overall cold storage trading volume decreased, and the shipping speed slowed down. The market arrivals decreased slightly, and the sales were stable [6]. - **Profit**: The profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.9 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.2 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - **Spot Price in Shandong**: The apple price in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples was 3.5 - 3.8 yuan per catty, and the striped ones were 3.5 - 4.5 yuan per catty. The price of merchant's slice - red apples was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, and the striped ones were 4.0 - 5.0 yuan per catty. The price of bulk apples was 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per catty, and the third - grade merchant's apples were 2.5 - 3.0 yuan per catty. The price of 70 apples was 2.5 - 2.7 yuan per catty, and the transactions were average [7]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Short - term, go long on AP10 at low prices. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 05 月 07 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日份格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | F-工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 相 | | | 宮千卒業外掲指数 | 103.65 | 103.65 | 0.00 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.69 | 7.63 | 0.06 | | 期货价格 | | | | | ...