| | | 免责声明 贵金属期货日报 2026/1/6 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资， 责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可， 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 19452 | 1004.980 | 10.0↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | +1205.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 1,752.00 | 130,227.00 | -2296.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | | -618.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 192,491.00 | + ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 2026/1/6 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC主力收盘价 | 13.3↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1872.700 | 1223.8 | +34.20↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -8.60↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 648.90 | 455.70 | -10.80↓ | | EC合约基差 | -17.20↓ | -76.87 | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -1050↓ | 24996 | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 53.19↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） SCFI（综合指数）（周） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts in 2025 - 2026 and on January 6, 2026 [3][4] - The geopolitical situation, especially the situation in Venezuela and the Fed's monetary policy stance, impact the financial and commodity markets [12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Forecast 2025 - 12 Futures Main (Continuous) Contracts Forecast - Index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with adjusted resistance and support levels upward [3] - Gold futures are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with the support level adjusted upward [3] January 2026 Futures Main (Continuous) Contracts Forecast - Index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation [17] - Gold futures are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 1024.0 and 1050.0 yuan/g and support at 958.8 and 943.4 yuan/g [35] - Silver futures are expected to have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation, with resistance at 20000 and 21000 yuan/kg and support at 16000 and 14970 yuan/kg [39] - Platinum futures are expected to have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation, with resistance at 671.5 and 729.5 yuan/g and support at 484.0 and 426.0 yuan/g [45] - Palladium futures are expected to have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation, with resistance at 497.4 and 538.0 yuan/g and support at 366.3 and 330.0 yuan/g [50] - Copper futures are expected to have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation, with resistance at 105000 and 108000 yuan/ton and support at 96500 and 93000 yuan/ton, and will hit a record high [55] - Aluminum futures are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 24260 and 24770 yuan/ton and support at 22500 and 21920 yuan/ton [60] - Lithium carbonate futures are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 140000 and 149500 yuan/ton and support at 109300 and 105400 yuan/ton [65] January 6, 2026 Futures Contracts Forecast - Index futures: IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603 are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, and specific resistance and support levels are provided [18] - Gold futures (AU2602) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 1007.0 and 1012.5 yuan/g and support at 991.0 and 986.9 yuan/g [35] - Silver futures (AG2604) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 19100 and 19500 yuan/kg and support at 18050 and 17900 yuan/kg [39] - Platinum futures (PT2606) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 600.0 and 613.6 yuan/g and support at 584.0 and 570.0 yuan/g [45] - Palladium futures (PD2606) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 463.7 and 472.4 yuan/g and support at 452.8 and 440.0 yuan/g [50] - Copper futures (CU2602) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 103000 and 105000 yuan/ton and support at 100500 and 100200 yuan/ton, and will hit a record high [55] - Aluminum futures (AL2602) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 24300 and 24500 yuan/ton and support at 23500 and 23300 yuan/ton [60] - Lithium carbonate futures (LC2605) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 132000 and 134500 yuan/ton and support at 130000 and 127900 yuan/ton [65] - PTA futures (TA605) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 5160 and 5200 yuan/ton and support at 5066 and 5046 yuan/ton [70] - PVC futures (V2605) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 4937 and 4983 yuan/ton and support at 4785 and 4764 yuan/ton [73] - Methanol futures (MA605) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 2286 and 2293 yuan/ton and support at 2215 and 2204 yuan/ton [74] Macro - news and Trading Tips - China and South Korea signed 15 cooperation agreements in various fields [5] - The Chinese government promotes the development of new technologies and green consumption [5] - The US takes actions against Venezuela, causing geopolitical tensions [6] - The US threatens to raise tariffs on India and shows interest in Greenland [7] - The Fed's policy is affected by economic data, and there are concerns about "fiscal dominance" [7] - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 declined slightly, with weak new orders and employment [8] Commodity Futures - related Information - Domestic commodity futures markets closed mixed, with precious metals and new - energy materials rising, and basic metals all up [11] - The China Commodity Price Index in December 2025 rose for eight consecutive months [11] - Venezuelan oil tankers seem to break the US blockade [11] - International precious metal futures and London basic metal futures generally rose [12] - Oil prices rose as the market considered the impact of the Venezuelan situation on supply [12] - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [13] Stock Market Information - On January 5, 2026, the A - share market had a good start, with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 4000 points and a large trading volume [15] - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting A - shares and H - shares, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 - 2027 [16] - The Hong Kong stock market had a mixed performance, with net southbound capital inflows [16] - US and European stock markets closed higher [16][17]

1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The commodity market is showing positive trends, with the China Commodity Price Index rising for eight consecutive months, indicating improved market supply - demand and increased business confidence [3]. - In the metal market, precious metals and industrial metals are rising, and copper prices are hitting new highs due to supply shortages [5]. - The bond market has a complex situation. In the short - term, there may be trading opportunities due to policy changes, but in the medium - term, it is likely to be slightly weak [28][29][30]. - The stock market in Hong Kong has a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down [34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.8%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1]. - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2% [1]. - In November 2025, social financing scale was 24888 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 3900 billion yuan [1]. - In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China will continue to cooperate with Venezuela in various fields, and the China - Venezuela cooperation is protected by international and bilateral laws [2]. - Nine departments in China issued a notice to promote green consumption, with 20 specific measures [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 dropped slightly, and new orders and employment continued to decline [3]. 3.2.2 Metal - Precious metals and industrial metals rose on Monday, with silver up over 6% and copper prices hitting new highs [5]. - Copper prices exceeded $13,000 per ton due to a strike in a Chilean copper mine and supply shortages [5]. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices hit new highs in over two years on January 5 [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will launch coking coal options after the holiday [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Trump said the US may subsidize oil companies to rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure [10]. - It is predicted that the average price of US crude oil in 2026 will be $58.15 per barrel, and Brent crude oil will be $61.27 per barrel [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil reserves in December 2025 increased by 5.3% month - on - month to 2.99 million tons [12]. - Indonesia exported 20.85 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to November [12]. - The egg industry has not entered the stage of accelerated capacity elimination [12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 5, the central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan [13]. - In December 2025, the central bank net - injected 50 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading, 100 billion yuan through MLF, and 7.1 billion yuan through SLF [13][14]. 3.3.2 Key News - The CSRC held a symposium on the comprehensive prevention and control system of financial fraud in the capital market [15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will support Yangtze River protection projects with over 100 billion yuan [16]. - In 2026, the issuance of local government bonds has started, and the issuance scale in the first quarter is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market was weak, with most interest - rate bond yields rising and bond futures mostly falling [22]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performances, with some bonds falling and some rising [22]. - The convertible bond index rose, and some convertible bonds had significant price changes [23]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 84 basis points to 6.9806 at 16:30 [27]. - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 98.32, and most non - US currencies rose [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the final draft of the fund sales new rules may be a case of "bad news is good news" for the bond market [28]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income suggests that the risk - parity strategy can achieve risk dispersion [29]. - Huatai Fixed - Income thinks the bond market is facing both positive and negative factors in 2026 [29]. 3.4 Stock Market - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.03% to 26347.24 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.09%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.22% [34]. - Southbound funds had a net purchase of 18.723 billion Hong Kong dollars, with Kuaishou and Xiaomi Group being the top net - bought stocks [34].

智通财经APP获悉，明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利表示，利率现在可能已接近对美国 经济而言的中性水平，未来的行动将取决于陆续发布的经济数据。 卡什卡利说："我们只需要获得更多数据，看看哪个因素影响更大，是通胀，还是劳动力市场。然后我 们就可以从中性立场出发，朝必要的方向采取行动。" 他称，"通胀风险在于其持续性，关税效应可能需要多年时间才能完全传导至整个经济体系，而我认 为，失业率确实存在从现在水平突然上升的风险。" 美联储官员已暗示，继2025年年底连续三次降息后，本月很可能维持利率不变。根据12月30日公布的上 月会议纪要，大多数美联储官员认为，随着通胀下降，最终需要进一步降息，但在何时降息以及降息幅 度上存在分歧。 上周末，一个由多位知名经济学家组成的小组表示，不断膨胀的联邦债务带来的长期风险是美国经济面 临的首要问题，其中包括一种情景：债务规模可能促使美联储为了最小化偿债成本而保持低利率，而非 抑制通胀。 自美联储12月会议以来发布的经济数据显示，11月失业率升至4.6%，为2021年以来最高水平，同时消 费者价格涨幅低于预期，这为降低利率提供了支持。但美国经济第三季度也以两年来最快速度扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by geopolitical risks and the U.S. military's actions in Venezuela, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of January 5, 2026, spot gold is trading at $4427.28 per ounce, with a daily increase of approximately 2.25%, reaching a high of $4433.55 and a low of $4331.59 [1][2]. - The increase in gold prices is attributed to a rise in safe-haven demand following the U.S. military's arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The geopolitical tensions and the U.S. administration's stance on Venezuela have reignited safe-haven buying, with gold experiencing a significant price increase despite a 4.39% decline in late December [2][3]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $4900 per ounce, citing dovish policies, global unrest, and institutional demand as key factors [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The weekly chart indicates a bullish trend for gold, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 60, suggesting continued upward momentum [4]. - The arrest of Maduro is seen as a catalyst for gold price increases, potentially leading to sustained upward pressure if geopolitical tensions persist [4].

一众经济学界泰斗表示，不断攀升的联邦债务所引发的长期风险，是美国经济面临的首要难题。 这些风险中包括这样一种情况：庞大的债务规模迫使美联储维持低利率，以尽量降低偿债成本，而非抑 制通胀，这一概念被称为"财政主导"。 前美国财长兼美联储主席耶伦上周日在费城出席美国经济学会年会的小组讨论时表示："'财政主导'出 现的前提条件显然正在增强。" 她表示："虽然我不认为美国最终会走上'财政主导'的不归路，但我确信这些危险是真实存在的，必须 予以密切监控。" 加州大学伯克利分校的经济学家David Romer则表示，对于两党达成协议以避免"财政灾难"的前景，他 感到"不那么乐观"。 "我们面临着财政问题，"David Romer说道，"如果我们不解决它，这将给包括美联储在内的所有人带来 麻烦。" 耶伦此前曾表示，如果特朗普成功迫使美联储维持低利率以缓解政府债务负担，美国将面临沦为"香蕉 共和国"的风险。 同场出席的前克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特补充道，当前债务问题中"最可怕"的一点在于，特朗普政府的官 员似乎并不理解其中蕴含的威胁。 "历届政府都知道自己正处于悬崖边缘，"尽管它们最终并未采取负责任的行动来控制赤字，她说 道，" ...

一些经济学界重量级人士表示，联邦债务不断攀升所带来的长期风险，是美国经济面临的重要问题。 这些风险包括此种情形：债务规模迫使央行维持低利率，以最大限度地降低偿债成本，而不是抑制通胀 ——这一概念被称为"财政主导"。 "财政主导的前提条件显然正在增强，"前美国财政部长、前美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦周日在费城举行的 美国经济学会年会参加小组讨论时表示。 耶伦此前曾表示，如果特朗普成功迫使美联储维持低利率以减轻政府债务负担，美国将面临沦为"香蕉 共和国"的危险。 一些经济学界重量级人士表示，联邦债务不断攀升所带来的长期风险，是美国经济面临的重要问题。 在同一小组讨论中，前克利夫兰联储行长Loretta Mester指出，当前债务问题中最"可怕"的是特朗普政府 官员似乎没有意识到其中存在的威胁。 她表示，"以往的政府都知道自己正处于悬崖边上"，即使最终没有采取负责任的措施来控制赤字。"我 认为本届政府可能没有意识到后果。" 尽管如此，耶伦表示，她希望一场危机——或许是社会保障和医疗保险即将面临的资不抵债——能够促 使国会就预算改革达成两党协议。 "我不认为美国最终会走上财政主导的道路，但我绝对认为这种危险是真实存在的，应 ...

在同一场合发言的前克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特也表示，当前债务问题最"可怕"之处在于，特朗普政府官 员似乎未能认识到其中蕴含的威胁。 这些风险包括着这样一种情景：债务规模迫使央行维持低利率以尽量降低债务偿还成本，而非将政策重 心放在抑制通胀——这一情境被称为"财政主导"(fiscal dominance)。 对此，前美国财政部长、前美联储主席耶伦周日在费城举行的美国经济协会年会上表示，当前美国财政 主导的前置条件显然正在加强。 耶伦提到，美国总统特朗普曾"公开要求"美联储降低利率，明确目的就是为了降低政府的债务偿还成 本。 耶伦此前曾警告称，若特朗普成功迫使美联储维持低利率以缓解政府债务压力，美国恐沦为"香蕉共和 国"。"香蕉共和国"通常是对那些拥有不民主或不稳定的政府，特别是那些拥有广泛贪污和强大外国势 力介入之国家的贬称。 根据美国国会预算办公室的预测，今年美国联邦赤字将达1.9万亿美元，使总债务达到国内生产总值的 约100%。预计未来十年这一比例将升至国内生产总值的118%左右。 多位资深人士呼应 智通财经1月5日讯（编辑 潇湘）多位美国经济界权威人士周日表示，不断攀升的联邦债务所带来的长 期风险，正成为美国 ...

智通财经APP获悉，一个由多位知名经济学家组成的小组表示，不断膨胀的联邦债务带来的长期风险是 美国经济面临的首要问题。这些风险包括一种情景：债务规模可能促使美联储为了最小化偿债成本而保 持低利率，而非抑制通胀——这一概念被称为"财政主导"。前财政部长兼美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦上周 日在美国经济协会于费城举行的年会上的一次小组讨论中表示，"财政主导的先决条件显然正在增强"。 国会预算办公室预测，今年的联邦赤字将达到1.9万亿美元，使总债务达到国内生产总值的约100%。预 计这一比例将在未来十年升至GDP的约118%。 耶伦还指出，总统唐纳德·特朗普已经"公开要求"美联储明确降低利率，以减少政府的偿债成本。 耶伦此前曾表示，如果特朗普成功迫使美联储保持低利率以减轻政府债务负担，美国将面临沦为"香蕉 共和国"的危险。 在同一小组发言的克利夫兰联储前主席洛蕾塔·梅斯特补充说，当前债务问题"最可怕"的部分在于，特 朗普政府官员似乎并不理解其中涉及的威胁。 "即使最终没有采取负责任的行动来控制赤字，历届政府都知道他们站在悬崖边上，"她说。"我认为本 届政府可能没有意识到其后果。" 尽管如此，耶伦表示她希望一场危机——或许是 ...