混沌中的规律：全球经济的非线性演化 宏观经济深度研究 在混沌中构建秩序 ——2026 年全球经济展望 " 长风破浪会有时，直挂云帆济沧海。 " 人类经济社会的每一次前行，都是在混 沌中构建秩序的历程，是在动荡的浪潮中寻找平衡的永恒努力。当旧范式的能 量逐渐衰竭，新范式的形态隐约成形。局部失序与整体重构共存，短期波动与 长期演化交织，全球经济正在脱离线性轨道，迈入一个由非线性、路径依赖与 适应性共同塑造的复杂系统。局部的细微变化不再是可忽略的短噪声，而成为 可能撬动整体格局的关键节点。历史积累的惯性也不再是趋势的线性延伸，而 是以隐性约束的方式限定未来演化的可能区间。系统对扰动的敏感性显著提 升，经济运行呈现出高度不稳定却韧性犹在的双重特征。在这种混沌式演化 中，传统经验难以提供确定答案，唯有回溯底层结构方能洞见未来方向。混沌 并不可畏，它象征着系统的开放性与潜能苏醒的活力。这既意味着高风险，也 孕育着新秩序。全球财政主导下，结构性改革、产业链重组与技术创新正在取 代旧的全球化逻辑，重新锚定增长基础。在复杂性中寻求稳定，在不确定中重 塑确定，正在成为全球经济新的演化方向。人类的任务，仍是以理性的勇气与 制度的创 ...

Core Viewpoints - The financial work during the "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on building a strong financial nation, emphasizing systemic risk prevention, policy coordination, and institutional openness, with a monetary policy that will maintain moderate easing and enhance transmission efficiency and structural precision [2] Financial Data Overview - As of October 2025, the M2 balance reached 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, showing a slight decline but remaining at a historically high level; the M1 balance was 11.10 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, continuing to show positive growth [2] - The social financing scale stock was 437.72 trillion yuan at the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.01 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year [2] Structural Contradictions - In October 2025, new RMB loans from financial institutions were 220 billion yuan, a significant drop from 1.29 trillion yuan in September, marking a new low for the year; market interest rates showed signs of weakness with the bill rate dropping to a historical low of 0.4% in August 2025 [3] - The banking system showed an excess reserve ratio of 1.40% in June 2025, higher than the average from 2018 to 2020, while the net interest margin of commercial banks was compressed to 1.42%, down from 2.08% in February 2021, indicating limited credit supply motivation [3] Current Financial Operation Characteristics - The current financial operation exhibits a dual characteristic of "ample liquidity and obstructed transmission," where despite a loose monetary policy and sufficient funds, the financing demand from the real economy shows structural weakness, particularly in traditional credit engines like real estate and local government financing platforms [3] Improvement Signs - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) removed the phrase "preventing fund circulation" from its third-quarter monetary policy report, suggesting that related risks may have been controlled to a certain extent [4] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The tone of monetary policy shifted from "implementing detailed moderate easing" in the second quarter to "implementing moderate easing well," indicating a focus on the effectiveness and efficiency of policies [5] - The PBOC emphasized the need to activate financing demand in the real economy as a core task to stabilize macroeconomic operations [5] Structural Monetary Policy Tools - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to have greater space in the future, with a shift from quantity indicators to price indicators being an absolute trend [5][19] - The current structural monetary policy scale is at least 5 trillion yuan, indicating significant potential for future expansion [10] Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The PBOC's purchase of government bonds is seen as a key manifestation of the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, enhancing liquidity management and stabilizing market expectations [23][24] - The central bank's support for fiscal policy is expected to increase as the scale of government bond issuance expands [24] Future Economic Outlook - The financial sector is urged to play a role in technological innovation, as the low-interest-rate environment may lead to a normalization of low financial and consumption demand [22] - The PBOC's approach to managing liquidity and interest rates will be crucial in navigating the economic landscape, especially in light of potential structural challenges [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The upward momentum of the US dollar in the near term is primarily driven by "political turmoil" in non-US developed economies, while the downward pressure stems from the "economic weakness" within the US. Overall, the dollar's rebound lacks sustainability, indicating a potential end to its strength and a shift towards a period of range-bound fluctuations [2][13]. Summary by Sections Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index, which had been weak in the first half of the year, recently surpassed the 100 mark for the first time in five and a half months. This rebound is attributed to ongoing political turmoil in France and strengthened by Japan's political developments, culminating in a hawkish stance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in October [4][6]. US Economic Context - The US economy faces increased downward pressure amid the longest government shutdown in history, complicating the validation of economic perspectives due to a lack of official data. The shutdown has created a "tightening effect" by pausing non-essential government spending, which is expected to worsen conditions for lower-income Americans [6][13]. Non-US Economic Factors - The Japanese yen's recent depreciation reflects market concerns regarding the Bank of Japan's delayed interest rate hikes and the disconnect between GDP growth and stagnant wage growth. The potential for further yen weakness may limit the dollar's upward momentum, while the UK's tax increase plans could introduce new external variables affecting the dollar [9][11][13]. UK Economic Developments - UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves' recent public support for tax increases and spending cuts has raised concerns about fiscal tightening's impact on economic growth. This shift in fiscal policy expectations has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, potentially driving the dollar index higher [13]. Future Outlook - The dollar's trajectory will largely depend on internal US factors, including the potential for government reopening, mid-term monetary policy adjustments, and long-term fiscal deficits. The evolution of the AI bubble will also play a crucial role in shaping the dollar's future [13].

Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - The dollar index recently rebounded above 100 after being weak for six months, starting from a low of 96.6 in mid-September[2][5] - The rebound was influenced by political uncertainty in France and the hawkish stance of the FOMC in October, marking a significant turning point for the dollar index[2][5] - The current rise in the dollar index is expected to be short-lived due to anticipated economic data deterioration in the U.S. and a return to rate cut expectations[2][7] Group 2: Economic Factors - The remaining upward pressure on the dollar is primarily driven by political chaos in non-U.S. developed economies, while downward pressure stems from economic weakness in the U.S.[2][17] - The U.S. government shutdown has created significant downward pressure on the economy, complicating the outlook for economic fundamentals[7][19] - The expectation of further rate cuts is being priced in, with a total of 75 basis points (bp) anticipated for the year, including already realized cuts[6] Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Increased policy uncertainty under Trump could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[19] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may exceed expectations, potentially leading to synchronized global easing and reduced long-term interest rate pressures[19] - The potential for manufacturing to return to the U.S. due to technological breakthroughs could significantly lower production costs and increase credit demand[19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing financing pressure on U.S. financial institutions since October, leading to tighter dollar liquidity and a phase of dollar appreciation. The Federal Reserve plans to end its quantitative tightening (QT) process by December 1, 2025, which includes stopping the reduction of Treasury securities while continuing to reduce MBS [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to stop shrinking its balance sheet aims to support dollar liquidity and alleviate financing pressures in the short-term financing market, which relies heavily on Treasury securities as collateral [2][21]. - The Fed's actions indicate a blurring of the lines between monetary and fiscal policy, with expectations of a potential restart of balance sheet expansion as early as Q1 next year [3][33]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Since June 2022, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by approximately $2.3 trillion, with Treasury and MBS reductions of about $1.6 trillion and $0.6 trillion, respectively [5][21]. - The liquidity in the U.S. dollar market has reached a low point since the pandemic, with narrow liquidity measures falling below the "ample liquidity" threshold [5][12]. Group 3: Financing Market Pressures - The financing market has experienced significant pressure, with borrowing through the discount window increasing since July, particularly following regional bank crises in October [10][13]. - The repo market has seen rising financing demands, with the secured overnight financing market's borrowing amount increasing from $1 trillion at the end of 2022 to $3 trillion, primarily driven by unregulated non-bank institutions [26][27]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Implications - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" plan may increase the deficit by approximately $400 billion, with the annual deficit rate expected to widen to 6.4% [37]. - If the government ends its shutdown, nearly $1 trillion in funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be injected into the market, enhancing liquidity [37]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The article suggests that under a dual expansion of fiscal and monetary policy, the nominal economic cycle in the U.S. is likely to restart, benefiting both U.S. and Chinese stock markets, as well as commodities like gold and copper [38]. - The focus for investment should be on themes of security and resilience amid changing geopolitical landscapes, emphasizing productivity enhancement and resource self-sufficiency [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The political power within the Federal Reserve Board is in a fragile balance. Trump's personnel arrangements have tilted the policy scale towards the dovish side, threatening the Fed's independence. If Trump gains a majority on the board, the implementation of monetary policy independence will face greater resistance [6][28][43]. - The Fed may be facing the trend of "fiscal dominance" again. High - level government debt, expanding fiscal deficits, and political pressure are forcing monetary policy to compromise with fiscal needs rather than firmly control inflation. However, the Fed needs to maintain a certain degree of independence on the surface to avoid inflation expectations getting out of control and U.S. debt risks spiraling [6][67][68]. - There is an obvious maturity mismatch problem in the Fed's balance sheet, with a high proportion of long - term assets. After the end of the balance - sheet reduction, the Fed may increase short - term Treasury bond holdings to optimize the maturity matching [6][119]. - The ON RRP balance has significantly declined and is approaching exhaustion, and the TGA scale is still below the average in recent years. If the Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet, the ON RRP may not effectively hedge liquidity fluctuations, and bank reserves may face downward pressure. The Fed may restart "reserve - management bond purchases", which is beneficial to short - duration assets [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Fed Decoded: History, Organization, and Decision - Making Framework 1.1 Fed Historical Context - The evolution of the Federal Reserve reflects continuous innovation and change in monetary policy in response to different economic crises. In 2025, it returned to the "Flexible Inflation Target" (FIT) framework, aiming to more strictly anchor the 2% inflation target while retaining flexibility in responding to the employment market [14]. 1.2 Fed Organizational Structure - The Fed consists of the Board of Governors, 12 Federal Reserve Banks and their branches, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board of Governors is the highest decision - making body, and the Federal Reserve Banks play an important role in operations. The FOMC is the core decision - making body for monetary policy [18][19]. - Currently, Trump is trying to influence the Fed's leadership composition through personnel arrangements. Although the Fed is trying to show unity, if Trump gets a majority on the board, his control over monetary policy will be further strengthened [28][29]. 1.3 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) - The FOMC holds eight regular meetings a year to discuss economic and financial conditions and formulate monetary policies. The post - meeting statement is the core document for understanding monetary policy trends [37]. - The voting records in the statement are important sources of information on the Fed's policy stance. There are different levels of influence within the Fed, with the chair having the strongest voice, the seven governors having permanent voting rights, and other members having different voting rights [39][40]. - The political power within the Fed's board is in a fragile balance. Trump's actions have tilted the policy towards the dovish side, and if he gets a stable majority, the implementation of monetary policy independence will face greater resistance [41][43]. 2. What Does the Return Mean? - The Return of "Fiscal Dominance" Pressure to FIT 2.1 The Origin of the "Dual Mandate" - After World War II, the Fed's monetary policy was restricted by the Treasury. In 1951, the "Treasury - Fed Agreement" marked the beginning of the Fed's independent formulation of monetary policy. In 1977, the Fed was given the "dual mandate" through legislation [47][52]. 2.2 The Birth of the Flexible Inflation Targeting - Since the 1990s, central banks around the world have increased policy transparency. In 2012, the Fed's "Flexible Inflation Targeting" (FIT) framework was formally established, with a long - term inflation target of 2% [56][57]. 2.3 Addressing the Challenge of Long - Term Low Inflation: The Formation and New Consensus of the FAIT Framework - In 2020, the Fed introduced the FAIT framework to deal with the long - term low - inflation and zero - lower - bound dilemma. Its core idea is to allow inflation to moderately exceed 2% for a period to compensate for previous periods of low inflation [58][59]. 2.4 Framework Adjustment: Return from FAIT to FIT - In 2025, the Fed returned to the FIT framework. The FAIT framework failed to control inflation during the pandemic, and the return to FIT aims to strengthen the Fed's credibility in inflation targeting and ease market inflation expectations [62][66]. - The Fed may be facing the trend of "fiscal dominance" again, but it needs to maintain a certain degree of independence on the surface [67][68]. 3. Is the End of Balance - Sheet Reduction Near as ON RRP Approaches Exhaustion? 3.1 Understanding the Fed's Price - Based Tools - The Fed's price - based tools form an "interest rate corridor" system to keep the market interest rate within the target range. The main tools include the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB), Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement (ON RRP), Discount Rate, and Standing Repo Facility (SRF) [81][86][100]. - The IORB and ON RRP form a "double - floor" system to absorb excess liquidity. The ON RRP is the "hard floor" of the interest rate corridor, and the IORB is the "soft ceiling" of the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) [91][92][99]. 3.2 Understanding the Fed's Balance Sheet - The Fed's balance sheet has expanded significantly due to quantitative easing policies during the global financial crisis and the COVID - 19 pandemic. There is a maturity mismatch problem, with a high proportion of long - term assets [108][119]. - The Fed's liabilities mainly include currency, the Treasury General Account (TGA), reserves, and reverse repurchase agreements. The Fed may adjust its securities holdings by increasing short - term Treasury bonds to optimize the maturity matching [115][119]. 3.3 Will Balance - Sheet Reduction Be Suspended as ON RRP Is Exhausted? - Since June 2022, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet. The decline in the ON RRP balance is the main manifestation of the liability reduction, and bank reserves have remained relatively stable. Currently, the reserve market is still in an abundant state, and the Fed may restart "reserve - management bond purchases" [120]. 4. What to Expect After Balance - Sheet Reduction? - "Reserve - Management Bond Purchases" May Restart - The Fed may restart "reserve - management bond purchases" by increasing short - term Treasury bond holdings to maintain sufficient reserves, which can also optimize the balance - sheet structure and support the demand for short - term Treasury bonds, benefiting short - duration assets [6].

Core Insights - The discussion at the 2025 Bund Summit focused on the challenges facing central banks, including geopolitical tensions, tariff barriers, high public debt, and the impact of artificial intelligence on monetary policy choices [1] Group 1: Tariffs and Inflation - Tariffs are becoming a significant uncertainty for central banks, particularly regarding their impact on U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3] - Jacob Frenkel noted that despite previous market concerns not materializing, it is premature to celebrate the current situation, drawing parallels to the "weaponization" of tariffs in the 1930s [3] - Raghuram Rajan indicated that while tariff-induced inflation effects have not fully manifested, there are signs of price increases due to tariffs, with a potential inflation rise of about one percentage point if two-thirds of tariffs are passed on [3][4] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Growth - Rajan expressed concerns about the slowing net job growth in the U.S. labor market, although the extent to which this will exert downward pressure on wages remains uncertain [4] - The resilience of U.S. consumption and strong investment, particularly in AI, has surprised many, suggesting that the anticipated impacts of trade uncertainties have not yet been fully realized [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy Framework - The traditional monetary policy framework's effectiveness is under scrutiny, especially following the Federal Reserve's recent adjustments to its policy framework [6] - Frenkel emphasized that while the framework should remain stable, it must adapt to significant external changes, indicating that the Fed's previous framework is no longer suitable in the current high-inflation environment [6][7] - The debate continues on whether to maintain a strict 2% inflation target or to adopt a more flexible range to avoid damaging credibility and causing unnecessary policy adjustments [7][8] Group 4: Lessons from Japan - Former Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa highlighted that Japan's prolonged economic stagnation is more related to demographic decline and adaptation to external changes than merely deflation [10] - Shirakawa advised against relying solely on aggressive monetary easing, suggesting that China should focus on supply-side issues rather than adopting Japan's past strategies [10] Group 5: Public Debt and Central Bank Credibility - Patrick Honohan discussed the challenges posed by high public debt, emphasizing the need for central banks to maintain their credibility while addressing inflation [11] - Shirakawa noted that the lack of political will for fiscal reform in Japan is partly due to the perception that low interest rates mitigate concerns over fiscal deficits [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the surge in gold prices driven by fears of financial collapse, with global investors, both professional and retail, rushing to purchase gold, pushing its price to historical highs, potentially entering a bubble phase [2][4][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased over 50% this year, reaching a record of $4,000 per ounce, with expectations for 2023 to be the best year since 1979 [4][20]. - The recent gold buying frenzy in Japan has seen retail investors actively purchasing gold bars and coins, leading to a significant increase in demand [6][29]. - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, have been major buyers of gold, diversifying their foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on the US dollar [6][7]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - A record $26 billion flowed into gold ETFs in the third quarter, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset [7][20]. - The phenomenon of "gold-plated FOMO" (fear of missing out) has emerged, with investors rushing to buy gold to avoid missing price momentum, potentially leading to increased market volatility [7][20]. - Traditional methods of valuing gold, such as its relationship with real interest rates, have become less reliable, complicating investment decisions [21][30]. Group 3: Economic Context - The article highlights concerns over rising debt levels and inflation, with investors viewing gold as a hedge against these risks, particularly in the context of US economic policies [10][18]. - The ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations have further fueled gold's appeal as a safe asset [20][30]. - The article notes that gold's supply is relatively inelastic, with production expected to remain stable over the next three years, which could support higher prices [23][24]. Group 4: Historical Comparisons - Historical patterns indicate that rapid increases in gold prices can lead to significant corrections, as seen in the late 1970s and 2011 [14][17]. - The current market sentiment reflects a shift towards gold as a protective asset amid fears of economic instability, reminiscent of past financial crises [8][10].

Core Insights - The current U.S. government debt has exceeded 120% of GDP, prompting concerns about the need to lower interest rates to alleviate debt repayment pressure [1] - There are growing worries about "fiscal dominance," where fiscal demands begin to influence central bank policies [1] - The S&P 500 index shows signs of excessive concentration risk, valuations nearing historical extremes, and a slowdown in corporate earnings, indicating a fragile foundation for the current market rally [1] - The company suggests capitalizing on upward market opportunities while diversifying investment portfolios to mitigate downside risks [1]

Core Insights - The current scale of U.S. government debt has exceeded 120% of GDP, necessitating a reduction in interest rates to alleviate debt repayment pressure, raising concerns about "fiscal dominance" where fiscal needs begin to influence central bank policies [1] - Signs such as the excessive concentration risk in the S&P 500 index, valuations nearing historical extremes, and slowing corporate earnings indicate that the current upward market trend is built on fragile foundations [1] - The company suggests that investors should seize upward opportunities while diversifying their portfolios to mitigate downside risks [1]