美联储博斯蒂克：目前尚不清楚关税将如何影响通胀前景。 ...

印度央行：温和的通胀前景和适度的经济增长支持货币政策维持对增长的支持立场。 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor Hawkesby indicated that growth is facing headwinds in the short term [1] - The revision of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) forecast path is described as moderate [1] - This adjustment reflects a weaker inflation outlook compared to the February estimates [1]

欧洲央行会议纪要：不确定性、欧元升值以及油气价格下跌，将进一步抑制近期的通胀前景。 ...

Group 1 - The central bank of Iceland indicates that the uncertainty regarding inflation prospects remains high, particularly due to recent changes in the global economic landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, stated that the quarterly rate of 25 basis points cuts since last summer has been "too aggressive" given the inflation outlook [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England has been implementing a quarterly rate cut of 25 basis points since last summer [1] - Huw Pill's comments suggest a reassessment of the current monetary policy approach in light of inflation concerns [1] - The statement indicates a potential shift in the Bank's strategy regarding interest rate adjustments moving forward [1]

瑞典央行副行长扬松：当前维持政策利率不变是明智之举，应等待更多信息，以便更清楚地了解经济活 动和通胀前景。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive "pause" since the beginning of the current rate cut cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points across three meetings [2][3] - Concerns regarding "stagflation" risks have intensified, with the Fed emphasizing increased uncertainty in economic outlook and rising risks of high unemployment and inflation [3][4] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Fed's ability to provide clear guidance on interest rate paths is hampered by ongoing policy uncertainty, making it challenging to restart the rate cut cycle in the short term [4] - The Fed's stance on tariffs has shifted, acknowledging that announced tariff increases have exceeded expectations and could lead to rising inflation, slower economic growth, and higher unemployment if sustained [4] - The Fed's view on inflation has evolved, moving away from the notion of "transitory" impacts of tariffs, recognizing that the effects could be either "one-time shifts" or "persistent," depending on the scale and duration of tariffs [4] Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to perform well amid potential "hard landing" scenarios in the U.S. economy, driven by factors such as a renewed Fed rate cut cycle, dollar depreciation, and increased central bank gold purchases [5] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is anticipated to benefit from the Fed's rate cut cycle, with opportunities for excess returns in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] - U.S. equities are facing a trend of adjustment rather than temporary fluctuations, with increasing economic downturn risks affecting profit growth expectations [5] - U.S. Treasury bonds may present a trend-based allocation opportunity only after inflation recedes, with potential for rapid interest rate increases due to repayment risks in the interim [5]

菲律宾央行：更可控的通胀前景和增长的下行风险使得货币政策转向更宽松的立场成为可能。 ...

菲律宾央行：2025年至2027年通胀前景的风险仍然大致平衡。 ...