Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3507.69 points, up 0.29% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10626.87 points, up 0.36% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2198.44 points, up 0.80% [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4011.25 points, up 0.32% [1] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 988.50 points, down 0.35% [1] - The CSI 500 Index closed at 5970.41 points, down 0.12% [1] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6406.44 points, down 0.02% [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.4」 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 添加客服 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除科创50外均录得上涨。四期指表现分化，大盘蓝 筹股强于中小盘股。本周一，国内6月PMI公布，三大PMI指数均较上月回升，市场情绪受到 推动；周二至周四市场震荡整理；周五午间，商务部发言人表示中美双方将各自解除经贸限 制，带动A股午后拉升。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周小幅回落。 2 来源：瑞达期货研究院 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2509 | 1.53 | 0.46 | 3936.0 | | | IH2509 | 1.39 | 0.62 | 2717.2 | | | IC2509 | ...

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced a significant afternoon rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.9% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose over 0.4%, while the ChiNext Index saw a gain of 0.66% [1] - The CSI 300 Index also expanded its gains, increasing by 1% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index approached a turning point, moving towards positive territory [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index turned positive in the afternoon, rising by 0.7% after an early decline of 1% [1]

Group 1 - Musk criticized Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, suggesting that if passed, it would lead to the formation of a new political party called "American Party" [4] - Trump's interview indicated that Musk's discontent stems from the bill's proposal to eliminate tax credits for electric vehicle consumers, impacting Tesla's interests [6] - A survey revealed that 49% of Americans oppose the bill, while only 29% support it, indicating significant public dissent [9] Group 2 - In June, U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly fell by 33,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with the service sector experiencing its largest decline since the pandemic [13] - Following the employment data, traders increased bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025, with expectations for the upcoming non-farm payroll report [15] - UBS forecasts a modest increase of 100,000 in non-farm payrolls for June, while Citigroup predicts an increase of only 85,000, with concerns about a potential rise in the unemployment rate [15]

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Market Performance Review - A-shares faced pressure due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, with all major indices declining this week. The Shanghai Composite Index, which has a high proportion of large-cap dividend stocks, fell by only 0.10%, while other indices like the ChiNext and CSI 1000 saw larger declines [3][12][13] - The market sentiment has turned cautious, with only the banking, communication, and electronics sectors showing positive returns amid the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict. Investors shifted towards defensive sectors, particularly high-dividend stocks represented by banks [3][13] A-share High-frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index fell into negative territory, with a 7-day moving average of -0.05% as of June 21, down from 4.6% on June 14. This indicates a shift from persistent pessimism to a more neutral stance among investors [4][15] - The financing capital showed slight net inflows, suggesting a potential recovery in investor sentiment, as the financing transaction volume as a percentage of total A-share trading has not decreased after a rebound [18] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The A-share market is expected to face continued pressure from geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Israel-Iran situation and potential escalations in U.S. tariffs. The upcoming internal policy window in July may reignite expectations for stimulus policies, particularly in real estate [4][28][29] - Investment strategy should focus on high dividend stocks with good value, such as banks, railways, and utilities. The timing for traditional domestic demand trades remains uncertain and will depend on the introduction of clear stimulus policies [5][29] Industry Rotation and Dividend Value Tracking - The current market is characterized by high rotation speed but low intensity, indicating a sideways trend in indices. The industry rotation began at the end of April and is expected to maintain a fast pace into June [19][21] - The dividend yield of high-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector, remains attractive in the context of potential interest rate cuts, enhancing their value proposition [25][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the A-share market, highlighting a rare occurrence that has implications for the ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) landscape in China [1] Group 1: Market Developments - A significant event occurred in the A-share market, indicating a shift in investor behavior and market dynamics [1] - The article emphasizes the growing popularity of ETFs among investors, suggesting a trend towards more diversified investment strategies [1] Group 2: ETF Evolution - The evolution of ETFs is noted, with a focus on how they are adapting to changing market conditions and investor preferences [1] - The article points out the increasing volume and variety of ETFs available in the market, reflecting a broader acceptance and integration of these financial instruments [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the risk of high-positioned thematic stocks, indicating a significant drop in sectors such as nuclear power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, with over 4,600 stocks declining and 20 hitting the daily limit down [1] - The article mentions that the market is under pressure due to various factors including month-end settlement, quarterly institutional rebalancing, new quantitative regulations in July, and the mid-year reporting window [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged, with a median forecast for a 50 basis point cut by the end of 2024 [3] Group 2 - Reports indicate that U.S. officials are preparing for potential strikes against Iran, adding uncertainty to the Middle East situation, which could severely impact global financial markets [4] - Tencent has launched a new short drama mini-program called "Short Drama," which has positively influenced the A-share short drama concept sector, leading to significant stock price increases for companies like Baida Qiancheng and Zhangyue Technology [6] - The article notes that the oil and petrochemical sectors are the only ones showing gains, while industries such as textiles, cosmetics, light manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals are experiencing declines [9]

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Group 1 - The A-share market opened with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.04% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index opened down by 0.09% [1] - The ChiNext Index opened down by 0.16% [1] - CRO concept stocks led the decline in the market [1]