1月12日，A股四大指数收盘全线上涨，沪指涨1.09%，深证成指涨1.75%，创业板指涨1.82%，科创综指涨2.88%。沪深京三市全 天成交额3.64万亿元。 （文章来源：上海证券报） | 上证指数 | 4165.29 | 1.09% | | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | | | | 深证成指 | 14366.91 | 1.75% | | 399001 | | | | 创业板指 | 3388.34 | 1.82% | | 399006 | | | | 科创综指 | 1855.38 | 2.88% | | 000680 | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that economists have a more optimistic outlook on China's economic performance for 2025, with "stability" being a frequently mentioned term in their expectations for the year [1] - A total of 61 responses were collected from economists, with 35 from financial institutions, 6 from government departments, and 20 from universities, think tanks, and non-financial enterprises [1] - Economists expect the impact of international economic and trade conditions on China's economy to be manageable, and anticipate a rebound in domestic price levels [1] Group 2 - The overall sentiment regarding the stock market is positive, with A-shares being favored by more than half of the respondents as a preferred asset class [1] - Economists recommend planning more policies to stabilize the real estate market in the new year, including the establishment of a national stock housing purchase fund and the continued reduction of existing mortgage rates [1]

Group 1 - CITIC Securities has undergone significant personnel changes, with Wu Chaoze appointed as the head of the Institutional Business Committee, overseeing various departments including Institutional Business, Research Development, Custody, and International Business [2] - Wu Chaoze has a notable career trajectory, having been promoted multiple times since 2025, enhancing his influence within CITIC Securities [2] - Wu Chaoze is recognized as the youngest senior executive at CITIC Securities, with a strong background in technology research, particularly in 5G, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things, earning multiple accolades as a top analyst in the telecommunications sector [2] Group 2 - Huang Wentao, who has been with CITIC Securities since 2010, is now acting as the head of the Research Development Department following Wu Chaoze's promotion [2] - Huang Wentao has proposed ten major global macro investment opportunities for 2026, emphasizing the concept of "New Four Bulls" in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, which include "Capital Inflow Bull," "Technology Innovation Bull," "Institutional Reform Bull," and "Consumption Upgrade Bull" [3] - Huang Wentao predicts that precious metals, particularly gold, will maintain a strong market position in 2026, despite potential price fluctuations, with an overall trend of accumulation and price increase until a new global trade and international monetary system stabilizes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to perform well due to the resonance of two factors: the restructuring of international order and China's industrial innovation by 2026 [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the CSI A500 index rose by 0.3%, the CSI A100 index increased by 0.1%, and the CSI A50 index saw a slight rise of 0.04% [1] - The trading volume of the A500 ETF managed by E Fund reached nearly 5 billion yuan during the half-day session [1] Future Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the market is likely to experience an initial rise followed by stabilization, supported by active capital and elevated valuations [1] - Investors are advised to pay attention to increased volatility and the rhythm that aligns with fundamental performance [1]

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. The collective rebound of the three official PMI indices in December implies economic recovery signs. The National Fiscal Work Conference held from December 27 - 28, 2025, especially the arrangement for trade - in programs, boosts market sentiment, creating a warm overall macro - atmosphere and strong bottom support for A - shares. The market's expectation of a dovish stance from the new Federal Reserve Chairman weakens the US dollar, and the strengthening of the offshore RMB during the New Year holiday supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January. Due to the relatively late Spring Festival this year, the A - share spring market may be advanced [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - IF主力合约（2603）最新4697.0，环比+103.8↑；IF次主力合约（2601）最新4714.0，环比+95.6↑。IH主力合约（2603）3098.8，环比+77.2↑；IH次主力合约（2601）3097.4，环比+73.2↑。IC主力合约（2603）7596.0，环比+229.4↑；IC次主力合约（2601）7664.8，环比+209.6↑。IM主力合约（2603）7639.0，环比+200.0↑；IM次主力合约（2601）7759.2，环比+179.6↑ [2]。 3.2 Futures Spread and Seasonal Spread - IF - IH当月合约价差1616.6，环比+20.4↑；IC - IF当月合约价差2950.8，环比+117.4↑；IM - IC当月合约价差94.4，环比 - 31.4↓；IC - IH当月合约价差4567.4，环比+137.8↑；IM - IF当月合约价差3045.2，环比+86.0↑；IM - IH当月合约价差4661.8，环比+106.4↑。IF当季 - 当月 - 17.0，环比+5.4↑；IF下季 - 当月 - 64.2，环比+3.0↑；IH当季 - 当月1.4，环比+2.4↑；IH下季 - 当月 - 8.6，环比+1.0↑；IC当季 - 当月 - 68.8，环比+24.0↑；IC下季 - 当月 - 247.8，环比+32.4↑；IM当季 - 当月 - 120.2，环比+25.0↑；IM下季 - 当月 - 355.8，环比+27.6↑ [2]。 3.3 Futures Net Positions of Top 20 - IF前20名净持仓 - 30,761.00，环比+158.0↑；IH前20名净持仓 - 13,999.00，环比+454.0↑；IC前20名净持仓 - 29,174.00，环比+1274.0↑；IM前20名净持仓 - 49,284.00，环比+7072.0↑ [2]。 3.4 Spot Prices and Basis - 沪深300为4717.75，环比+87.8↑，IF主力合约基差 - 20.8，环比+9.4↑；上证50为3,099.8，环比+68.6↑，IH主力合约基差 - 0.9，环比+5.2↑；中证500为7,651.2，环比+185.6↑，IC主力合约基差 - 55.2，环比+47.6↑；中证1000为7,753.9，环比+158.6↑，IM主力合约基差 - 114.9，环比+44.2↑ [2]。 3.5 Market Sentiment - A股成交额（日，亿元）25,672.40，环比+5014.52↑；两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）25,406.82，环比 - 146.01↓；北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）2223.14，环比 - 157.04↓；逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元） - 4823.0，环比+135.0；主力资金（昨日，今日，亿元） - 397.51，环比+40.78；上涨股票比例（日，%）76.57，环比+31.32↑；Shibor（日，%）1.264，环比+0.006↑；IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2601）57.20，环比+29.20↑；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率（%）13.48，环比 - 1.95↓；IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2601）41.20，环比 - 60.60↓；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率（%）13.48，环比 - 1.54↓；沪深300指数20日波动率（%）12.80，环比+1.58↑；成交量PCR（%）59.96，环比+3.16↑；持仓量PCR（%）79.75，环比+7.42↑；Wind市场强弱分析中全部A股7.70，环比+3.10↑，技术面7.70，环比+3.20↑，资金面7.80，环比+3.20↑ [2]。 3.6 Industry News - A股主要指数收盘集体大幅上涨,上证指数重回4000点,沪深两市成交额大幅回升,全市场近4200只个股上涨,行业板块普遍上涨,传媒、医药生物等板块大幅走强,石油石化板块领跌。海外方面,特朗普预计1月宣布下一任美联储主席人选,此前表示希望新任美联储主席在市场表现良好时降低利率。国内方面,12月三大官方PMI指数均由荣枯线下方回升至扩张区间,12月27 - 28日全国财政工作会议指出2026年继续实施积极财政政策并安排资金支持消费品以旧换新 [2]。 3.7 Key Points to Watch - 1/5 23:00美国12月ISM制造业PMI；1/7 21:15美国12月ADP就业人数，23:00美国11月JOLTs职位空缺；1/8 20:30美国12月挑战者企业裁员人数；1/9 9:30中国12月CPI、PPI；1/9 21:30美国12月非农就业人口、失业率、劳动参与率 [3]。

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a positive start to the new year, with significant gains across major indices on the first trading day of January [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.38%, reclaiming the 4000-point level [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.24% [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 2.85% [1] - The North China 50 Index gained 1.8% [1] Group 2: Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the three markets reached 25,672 billion yuan, an increase of 5,015 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,100 stocks across the three markets experienced price increases [1]

Group 1 - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index has increased by 3%, currently reported at 1384.84 points [1]

责任编辑：何俊熹 责任编辑：何俊熹 ...