Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On March 3, 2026, the A-share market showed a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.07%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.57%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 111.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends, and the market was affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, international situations, and weather conditions [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On March 3, the A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4122.68 points, down 1.43%; the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 14022.39 points, down 3.07%; and the ChiNext Index closing at 3209.48 points, down 2.57%. The trading volume reached 3.16 trillion yuan, up 111.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 3, closing at 4655.90, a decrease of 72.77 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 3, the weighted index of coke fluctuated widely, closing at 1703.5, up 56.0 from the previous day [2]. - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 3, closing at 1147.2 yuan, up 44.1 from the previous day [3]. - Coking profit is average, and daily production has a slight increase. Coke inventory has a slight decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1346 vehicles. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work in coal mines. The production of coking coal mines has decreased significantly in the early stage. The spot auction transactions have gradually increased during the week, and the transaction prices have mainly decreased slightly. The terminal inventory has decreased significantly, and there may be a certain degree of replenishment after the Spring Festival. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased significantly, and the production - end inventory has decreased significantly [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the rise in crude oil prices and abundant spot supply, the US sugar fluctuated widely and closed slightly lower on Monday. Due to the downward adjustment of the spot quotation and the large short - term increase affected by the technical side, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated lower on Tuesday. Affected by short - selling pressure, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward at night. The industry organization ISMA said that as of February, the sugar production in India in the current market year (starting from October 2025) reached 24.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.43% [4]. Rubber - The escalation of the US - Iran dispute led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The market was worried about whether the global economy would decline, and the global capital market declined significantly. Affected by this and the large increase in futures prices recently, long - position liquidation pressured the Shanghai rubber to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. Affected by the concern about the possible global economic recession, the Shanghai rubber continued to oscillate downward at night. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons from the previous period, an increase of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89% [4]. Vegetable Oil and Related Products - The international crude oil market rose strongly due to the war, and the spill - over effect of the oil price increase strongly boosted the vegetable oil market. As of last Thursday, Brazil had harvested 39% of its soybeans, with the harvest progress slower than the same period in previous years. The agency predicted that the soybean production in Brazil in 2025/26 would reach 178 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 181 million tons due to the yield loss in Rio Grande do Sul caused by drought [5]. - On March 3, the main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2836 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35%. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has risen rapidly, the soybean meal inventory has increased, the downstream enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, so the spot price has continuously declined under pressure. The US soybeans remain at a high level, and the cost side still provides support for soybean meal [5]. Livestock (Pig) - On March 3, the main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The supply of suitable - weight live pigs in March shows a loose trend, and the demand for fat pigs is in the off - season. The risk of holding pigs for sale in the market has increased, which has increased the enthusiasm of the breeding side for capacity reduction. The price - holding mentality of retail farmers and group pig enterprises has loosened, and the slaughter rhythm of some leading pig enterprises has accelerated. The supply capacity of suitable - weight standard pigs and medium - large pigs is sufficient. Coupled with the high inventory of breeding sows in the country, the production capacity base supports sufficient supply. At the same time, the breeding efficiency continues to improve, further amplifying the effective supply. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly. On the demand side, the pork consumption after the festival has entered the annual off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are not smooth, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, the demand - side carrying capacity is weak, and the support for pig prices is insufficient. Overall, the live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Palm Oil - On March 3, the overall trend of oils continued to rise. The palm oil futures gapped up and rose for three consecutive days. By the afternoon close, the main contract of palm oil P2605 closed with a positive line with short upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 9028, the lowest price was 8926, and the closing price was 8994, an increase of 1.08% from the previous trading day. As of February 27, 2026 (Week 9), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas across the country was 786,700 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons from the previous week, an increase of 11.37%; compared with 414,600 tons in the same period last year, it increased by 372,100 tons, an increase of 89.75% [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 102,100 yuan/ton, opened at 103,320, reached a maximum of 103,630, a minimum of 101,270, with a trading volume of 177,900 lots, a position of 198,000 lots, and a settlement price of 102,410 yuan/ton. It opened low and moved lower within the day, oscillating downward. The outer - market London copper and US copper also weakened synchronously, and the inner and outer markets resonated and corrected. The US dollar rebounded, and the funds at the previous high took profits and left the market. Coupled with the downstream's resistance to high prices, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was about 101,725 yuan/ton, with a discount of 375 yuan/ton to the main contract. The inventory of copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly and remained at a high level overall. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of terminal work and the release of orders, the change of inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the disturbance of macro and geopolitical situations to market sentiment [5]. Iron Ore - On March 2, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.67% and a closing price of 753.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments continued to rise this period, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory was at a historical high, and the molten iron output maintained an increasing trend. However, some steel mills were restricted during the Two Sessions, so the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [5]. Asphalt - On March 2, the main contract of asphalt 2604 oscillated and rose, with a gain of 4.69% and a closing price of 3639 yuan. Recently, some refineries in the region plan to resume production, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory pressure has increased, the downstream rigid demand is weak, and the demand recovery is slow. The short - term asphalt price shows an oscillating trend [5][6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 801 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 797, a maximum of 804, and a closing price of 799.5, with a daily reduction of 46 lots. On March 3, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Attention should be paid to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [6]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15,160 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. The cotton inventory increased by 44 lots compared with the previous trading day. The growth of new cotton in Australia is generally good, and most producing areas have entered the late development stage. However, since the area of dry - land crops has decreased compared with previous years, timely rainfall is needed to achieve the expected yield [6]. Steel - On March 3, rb2605 closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3219 yuan/ton. The situation in the Middle East is tense, but the impact on the domestic black - series market is relatively limited. The market is still trading on the expectations of the Two Sessions and the supply - demand structure relationship in the industrial end. As the downstream terminal market gradually resumes work, the rigid - demand replenishment increases, and the market speculation sentiment has heated up. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point and the driving force of policies [6]. Alumina - On March 3, ao2605 closed at 2807 yuan/ton. The ore price has continued to decline, and the cost support for alumina has weakened. Since the beginning of this year, there have been successive production cuts on the alumina supply side, and the pressure of oversupply has been slightly relieved, but the overall oversupply pattern has not changed. At the same time, the total inventory of alumina has continued to accumulate, suppressing the price, and the upward space of the main contract is limited. On the demand side, the market consumption enthusiasm is not high after the festival, the resumption process of alumina enterprises is slow, and some markets are still on holiday. The resumption situation needs to be observed after the Lantern Festival [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 3, al2604 closed at 23,905 yuan/ton. Overseas, attention is continuously paid to the evolution of the situation in the Middle East. The transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, the shipping cost has increased significantly, and the energy facilities in Middle - Eastern countries also have certain safety risks. The market is worried about disturbing the aluminum supply - demand balance, and the risk - aversion sentiment is still relatively strong. In China, the Two Sessions are approaching, and the market is concerned about the subsequent guidance. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio remains at a low level during the year, the backlogged and in - transit goods continue to be transported, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, the performance continues to improve. The receiving of goods in all major downstream consumption areas has improved to a certain extent, and there is a certain mentality of buying on the rise. The downstream continues to resume work, the receiving of goods increases, and the overall trading atmosphere improves [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal supply is abundant, with high Mongolian coal customs clearance and slow resumption of production in coal washing plants. Downstream coke enterprises'开工 has slightly increased, coking coal inventory has decreased, and coke has continued to accumulate. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is reported at 1,390 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1,305 yuan/ton on the futures market. Technically, the intraday coking coal main contract closed up 4.01% to 1,127, below the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. Geopolitical risks and the Two Sessions' expectations boost the futures market, but the fundamentals are loose and there is an expectation of coke price cuts, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. - On the supply side, the load of coke enterprises has increased, and the in - plant inventory has continued to accumulate due to logistics. On the demand side, the steel mill's开工 and hot metal production have continued to rise. Technically, the intraday coke main contract closed up 3.42% to 1,694, between the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. Currently, the coke supply - demand is loose, the market sentiment is weak, and there is an expectation of price cuts. As the Two Sessions approach, the steel mill's开工 may be restricted and the growth rate of hot metal may slow down, while geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment provide phased support, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1,127.00, up 33.00 [2]. - J main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1,694.00, up 42.00 [2]. - JM futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 685,531.00, down 32,910.00 [2]. - J futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 43,458.00, down 1,114.00 [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts (daily, lots): - 86,455.00, up 10,462.00 [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts (daily, lots): - 314.00, down 700.00 [2]. - JM September - May contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 95.00, down 5.50 [2]. - J September - May contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 76.00, down 3.00 [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts (daily, sheets): 0.00 [2]. - Coke warehouse receipts (daily, sheets): 0.00, up 7.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimengduo Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1,013.00 [2]. - Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1,720.00 [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR, US dollars/wet ton): 162.50 [2]. - Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1,520.00 [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal (yard price, daily, yuan/ton): 1,570.00 [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal (yard price, daily, yuan/ton): 1,700.00 [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1,379.00 [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1,280.00 [2]. - JM main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 178.00, down 33.00 [2]. - J main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 26.00, down 42.00 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants (daily, 10,000 tons): 16.90, down 7.40 [2]. - Fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, 10,000 tons): 298.90, down 10.10 [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, %): 0.23, down 0.10 [2]. - Raw coal output (monthly, 10,000 tons): 43,703.50, up 1,024.20 [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly, 10,000 tons): 5,860.00, up 1,455.00 [2]. - Daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 151.60, up 43.00 [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly, 10,000 tons): 494.44, down 1.83 [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises (weekly, 10,000 tons): 829.46, down 64.03 [2]. - Coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly, 10,000 tons): 261.70, down 2.16 [2]. - Coke inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises (weekly, 10,000 tons): 62.19, up 6.67 [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, 10,000 tons): 792.46, down 27.89 [2]. - Coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills (weekly, 10,000 tons): 675.11, down 13.50 [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coke enterprises (weekly, days): 12.65, down 0.41 [2]. - Available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills (weekly, days): 12.41, down 0.05 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Coking coal imports (monthly, 10,000 tons): 1,376.98, up 303.83 [2]. - Coke and semi - coke exports (monthly, 10,000 tons): 100.00, up 28.00 [2]. - Total coking coal supply (monthly, 10,000 tons): 5,478.50, up 238.93 [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises (weekly, %): 72.83, up 0.97 [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly, yuan/ton): - 7.00, up 1.00 [2]. - Coke output (monthly, 10,000 tons): 4,274.30, up 104.00 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, %): 80.22, up 0.09 [2]. - Blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %): 87.45, up 1.04 [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly, 10,000 tons): 6,817.74, down 169.36 [2]. - According to Mysteel, the escalation of the Gulf situation has a limited direct impact and a significant indirect impact on China's steel exports. The short - term monthly export impact is about 116.24 tons. If the situation stagnates for more than three months, there is a risk of losing the Middle East market share [2]. - According to Mysteel, the construction industry has tight funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is progressing steadily. The overall capital situation of the industry is neutral to tight, with 11.54% of enterprises facing poor fund arrival; most enterprises are advancing the resumption of work as planned, and 9.62% of enterprises said the resumption progress is slow [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to CNN, a US senior official revealed on March 2 that the US is preparing for a "substantial increase" in attacks on Iran in the next 24 hours. The US believes that the first - round attacks have achieved the goal of weakening Iran's defense capabilities, and the next stage will focus on destroying Iran's missile production capacity, drones, and naval forces [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Global macro格局受四大重磅事件冲击，美以伊军事冲突成市场核心即时变量，需关注冲突烈度及对市场的影响，人民币汇率受央行政策和地缘冲突影响，短期或双向波动，长期升值趋势取决于国内经济和出口情况 [2][3] - 股指受两会和地缘政治局势影响，预计以短期情绪冲击为主，底部支撑强；国债存在上涨契机，但需关注市场环境；集运欧线受地缘冲突和船司挺价影响，预计震荡偏强 [6][7][9] - 碳酸锂短期预计在15 - 20万元/吨区间宽幅震荡，中长期价值支撑稳固；工业硅和多晶硅短期处于产能周期底部，需等待供需格局改善 [11][12][13] - 铝产业链受美伊冲突影响，铝价或震荡偏强，氧化铝震荡整理，铸造铝合金震荡偏强；铜价受库存和下游复工影响，上涨面临压力；锌价预计偏强震荡；镍不锈钢震荡偏强；锡价高位震荡；铅价震荡调整 [15][16][18] - 油料市场，二季度后大豆供应压力回归，菜粕或表现弱势；油脂市场受地缘冲突支撑，可寻找逢低看多机会 [26][27][28] - 燃料油期价有望强势冲高，沥青跟随成本上涨；铂金和钯金中长期牛市基础仍在，黄金和白银战略性看多 [30][32][34] - 纸浆和胶版纸期货可区间交易，纯苯或有低多机会；苯乙烯和LPG受地缘影响，成本支撑增强；甲醇受地缘冲突影响大；聚烯烃短期受情绪和成本驱动，PP基本面支撑强于PE [37][38][40] - 橡胶震荡回调，天胶中长期偏多，顺丁橡胶区间震荡；尿素受美伊战争影响，价格或上涨；玻璃纯碱基本面空间有限；丙烯受成本推动上涨 [50][51][54] - 螺纹和热卷受政策预期和高库存影响，短期内政策支撑盘面，但基本面偏弱；铁矿石供应压制价格，需求预期悲观；焦煤焦炭关注终端需求验证；硅铁和硅锰受消息面驱动上涨，但硅锰受高库存压制 [57][58][60] - 生猪现货持续下跌，可选择卖涨期权；棉花供需偏紧，建议回调布局多单；白糖基本面偏空，关注盘面能否站稳5300；鸡蛋短期窄幅震荡、稳中偏强；苹果关注节后消费和交割逻辑；红枣供需格局偏松，价格承压；原木可观望或低多 [65][66][76] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Focus on the Middle East situation, including the Iran - US - Israel conflict, the impact on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Chinese government's meeting on the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent one - sided appreciation expectations. Short - term exchange rate may show two - way fluctuations, and long - term appreciation depends on domestic economic recovery and export strength. Geopolitical conflicts may support the US dollar index [2][3] - **Stock Index**: Affected by the two sessions and geopolitical situation, short - term emotional shocks are expected, with strong bottom support [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: There is an opportunity for an increase, but the market environment needs to be monitored. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and avoid chasing high prices in the short term [6][7][8] - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding behavior strengthen short - term support, but weak cargo volume limits the upside. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9][10] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 150,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton. Long - term value is supported by downstream demand, but risks such as price increases affecting terminal economy need to be noted [11][12] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Currently at the bottom of the production cycle, waiting for supply - demand pattern improvement. Photovoltaic has long - term development potential [12][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The US - Iran conflict may cause short - term price fluctuations in electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to buy call options for aluminum and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for alumina. Cast aluminum alloy may follow the trend of aluminum [15][16][17] - **Copper**: Affected by high inventory and slow downstream resumption, price increase is restricted. It is advisable to use calendar spread strategies or buy out - of - the - money call options [18][20] - **Zinc**: Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and the turning point needs to be observed [22] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The trend is slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to US tariff disturbances and Indonesian supply [22][23] - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the impact of risk aversion on the market needs to be noted [23][24] - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and interval operations are recommended [25] Oils and Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The supply pressure of soybeans will return in the second quarter, and rapeseed meal may be weak [26] - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by geopolitical conflicts, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [26][27][28] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by supply shock, cost, and logistics, the futures price is expected to rise strongly [30] - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost of crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are dominant [31] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The risk - aversion sentiment is fermented due to the Middle East geopolitical risk. The long - term bull market foundation remains, but position control is needed [32][33] - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion allocation value is prominent. It is recommended to go long strategically and pay attention to economic data and policy expectations [34][35] Chemicals - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp futures are bearish due to inventory accumulation and weak cost support. Offset paper futures are affected by multiple factors and are in a range - bound state [37][38] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The cost support is enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and they are likely to follow the rise of crude oil [38][39] - **LPG**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the external market is strong and the internal market is weak. The focus is on the situation in the Middle East [39][40][41] - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact, and the supply and price are likely to be affected [41][42] - **Plastics and PP**: The cost support is strengthened by the Middle East conflict. PE is supply - strong and demand - weak in the short term, while PP has supply reduction expectations and stronger fundamental support [44][45] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and synthetic rubber is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply, demand, and inventory [50][74] - **Urea**: Affected by the US - Iran war, international and domestic prices may rise [51][52] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The fundamental space is limited, and price fluctuations are restricted [53][54] - **Propylene**: Driven by cost, the price is expected to rise, but the downstream acceptance needs to be observed [54][55] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by policy expectations and high inventory, the short - term policy supports the market, but the fundamental weakness limits the upside [57] - **Iron Ore**: The supply suppresses the price, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to be bearish but not to short [58][59][60] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Enter the terminal demand verification period, and the real data is important. The price may face downward pressure if the supply recovers more than expected and the macro - sentiment weakens [60][61] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Driven by market rumors, silicon iron has a better fundamental situation, while silicon manganese is restricted by high inventory [61][62][63] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The spot price continues to decline, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [65] - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to foreign trade policies and export progress [66][67][68] - **Sugar**: The fundamental situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to whether the price can stand above 5300 [68][69] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly and be slightly stronger in the short term, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [69][70] - **Apples**: Pay attention to post - festival consumption and the delivery logic. The price may decline if the demand is weak [76][77] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure, likely to maintain low - level fluctuations [77][78] - **Logs**: The spot price has support, but the demand has not recovered significantly. Geopolitical factors may affect supply and cost. It is advisable to wait and see or go long at low prices [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The demand for iron ore is limited due to steel mill production restrictions in areas such as Tangshan, while overseas shipments have increased and port inventory has continued to rise. However, with the support of the Two Sessions' expectations, the futures price is expected to stabilize with fluctuations [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.39% from the previous week, with a total trading volume of 3,706,677 lots and a total open interest of 2,580,465 lots [2]. - SHFE hot-rolled coil closed at 3215 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.22%, with a total trading volume of 1,494,469 lots and a total open interest of 1,492,800 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore closed at 750.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.60%, with a total trading volume of 863,039 lots and a total open interest of 540,573 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal closed at 1093.5 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan or 2.45%, with a total trading volume of 3,008,084 lots and a total open interest of 721,319 lots [2]. - DCE coke closed at 1635.5 yuan/ton, down 46.5 yuan or 2.76%, with a total trading volume of 70,334 lots and a total open interest of 42,455 lots [2]. 3.2 Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated. After the Spring Festival, the iron ore price made up for the decline, and then the release of the Shanghai property market policy boosted market sentiment, leading to a rebound in the futures price [4]. - **Spot Market**: At Rizhao Port, the price of PB powder was reported at 748 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 639 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The price difference between high and low-grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 109 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the molten iron output increased, and steel mills gradually resumed production after the Spring Festival. However, due to production restrictions in steel mills in areas such as Tangshan, the demand increase was limited. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.22%, a week-on-week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.93 percentage points. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.45%, a week-on-week increase of 1.05 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.87 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a week-on-week increase of 1.30 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10.39 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.3328 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 27,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 53,400 tons [1][4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, overseas shipments increased, while the arrivals decreased week-on-week. Since the Spring Festival, port clearance has remained at a high level, and inventory has continued to increase. The total global iron ore shipments were 3.3209 million tons, an increase of 631,000 tons compared to February 9 - 15. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.7133 million tons, an increase of 598,400 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 17.8913 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 159,180 tons, and the daily average clearance volume was 313,530 tons, a decrease of 53,640 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will stop collecting tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) at 12:01 am Eastern Time (13:01 Beijing Time) on Tuesday, as the US Supreme Court has ruled these tariffs illegal [10]. - On February 21, local time, US President Trump announced on his social platform "Truth Social" that he would increase the import tariff on global goods from 10% to 15% [10]. - On February 25, Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for the Property Market", further reducing housing purchase restrictions. For non - local household or single adult individuals buying housing within the outer ring, the required period of social insurance or personal income tax payment has been adjusted to at least 1 year continuously before the purchase date [10]. - On March 1, local time, US President Trump stated that the military operation against Iran may last about four weeks. The leaders of the UK, France, and Germany issued a joint statement indicating that they may take "necessary defensive actions" against Iran [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 26 charts, including the national steel mill profitability rate, daily average molten iron output, global iron ore shipments, port inventory, and iron ore monthly spread seasonal charts [9][11][12] etc.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core Views - **Stock Index**: AI concerns are intensifying, precious metals are strengthening, and the stock index may fluctuate in the short term. It may show a slightly upward trend before the Two Sessions. Market sentiment towards the Two Sessions can be monitored [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is facing significant supply pressure after the holiday. If this pressure can be continuously absorbed, it may dialectically contribute to the continuation of the bond bull market since the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to supply pressure, and treasury bonds may fluctuate [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: The four major stock indices fluctuated and faced pressure before the holiday [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Range - bound fluctuations [11]. - **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Treasury bonds showed a slightly upward trend in the pre - holiday period but faced pressure on the last trading day before the holiday [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [13]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Fluctuating operation [13]. Key Data Tracking - **PMI** - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%. Compared with December last year, it decreased significantly, but it was basically the same as in November last year. Production recovered mainly due to the improvement in the upstream industry, and export orders increased slightly, which may continuously drive the high - tech manufacturing industry. However, there is no obvious improvement in demand, and inventory tends to accumulate. High raw material prices may affect industrial enterprise profitability [19]. - **CPI** - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026: low base, narrowing decline in pork prices, impact of gold price fluctuations, and expansion of service consumption [22]. - **Imports and Exports** - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports unexpectedly rebounded to 6.6%, much higher than the Reuters consensus forecast of 3%. The month - on - month growth rate was 8.3%, higher than the average of the past ten years (5.9%), and the two - year compound growth rate also rebounded to 8.6%. The over - expected export growth in 2025 was due to two cognitive biases in the market. The "One Belt, One Road investment driving foreign trade" cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. - **Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size** - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline, with the decline expanding to - 13.1%, reaching the weakest level since September 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of revenue rebounded to - 0.3%. The decline in profit growth was mainly due to the significant drop in profit margins [29]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment** - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8%, significantly lower than in 2024 and turning negative. It is estimated that the growth rate in December was - 16.0%, with the decline continuing to expand. In December, the growth rates of private investment and public investment were - 17.2% and - 14.3% respectively, both with expanding declines. Among the components, the growth rate of construction and installation projects dropped to - 28.0%, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses rebounded to 8.7% and 0.3% respectively [32]. - **Social Retail** - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and retail above the quota were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively, all slightly higher than in 2024. In December, the growth rate of social retail dropped to 0.9%, while the decline in retail above the quota narrowed to - 1.9%. The differentiation was due to weak consumption across channels and reduced drag from durable goods [35]. - **Social Financing** - On February 13, 2026, the central bank announced the financial statistics for January 2026. In January, the new social financing was 7.2 trillion, and the new RMB loans were 4.7 trillion. At the end of January, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 9.0%. The year - on - year increase in social financing was mainly supported by government bonds, undiscounted bills, and foreign currency loans. The year - on - year increase in long - term loans for both residents and enterprises decreased, while the year - on - year increase in short - term loans increased. M1 and M2 both rebounded year - on - year, and non - bank deposits continued to increase. The coordination of monetary and fiscal policies maintained sufficient liquidity [38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural opportunities in the stock market around the Chinese New Year, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic factors, liquidity, and event impacts on market trends [5][14]. Group 1: Market Trends Pre and Post Spring Festival - Historical patterns suggest that the stock market does not consistently follow the "digging a pit before the festival and rising afterward" trend, with varying performances over the past ten years [9][11]. - The article presents data showing mixed results for the A-share market before and after the Spring Festival, with some years experiencing significant rebounds while others faced declines [10][12]. - Key factors influencing market movements include macroeconomic expectations, liquidity conditions, and external shocks, which collectively shape the market narrative [14]. Group 2: Factors Influencing 2026 Spring Festival Market - The macroeconomic outlook indicates potential challenges from the U.S. market, particularly concerning technology stocks, which could impact global capital markets [15][19]. - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to bring positive policy signals, which may enhance macroeconomic expectations and liquidity conditions post-festival [17]. - Historical data shows a 100% probability of leveraged funds returning in the first three trading days after the festival, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment [18]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Consumer and Technology Sectors - The article highlights the K-shaped recovery in consumer spending, with a focus on high-end tourism, luxury goods, and duty-free shopping as key areas of interest for investors [26]. - The Spring Festival is expected to catalyze interest in AI technologies, particularly as major internet companies engage in competitive "red envelope" campaigns, which could drive significant market activity [30][35]. - The performance of technology stocks, especially those related to AI, is anticipated to be a major theme in the post-festival market, with structural opportunities likely to arise [21][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures maintained a weak and volatile trend. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate [6][32]. - Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. Overall, the inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [6][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The double - coking futures maintained a weak and volatile trend this week. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate. The coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable, the molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus | Multi - factors | Short - factors | | --- | --- | | The inventory structure of coking coal has improved | The winter storage of steel products was poor, limiting the raw material replenishment space of steel mills | | The domestic macro - policy is positive | As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment rhythm gradually slows down | | The molten iron output is stable, supporting the demand for furnace materials | The financial market fluctuations intensify, and the sentiment is changeable | [10] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Coking coal supply**: As of the week of February 13, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 81.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28%, and the daily average output was 74.26 tons, a decrease of 1.19 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 32.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.26%, and the daily average output was 24.34 tons, a decrease of 1.97 tons. As of the weekly statistics on February 7, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port was 92.9745 tons, slightly shrinking from the previous period. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival [12]. - **Coking coal inventory**: As of the week of February 13, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 261.24 tons, a decrease of 3.41 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 309.01 tons, a decrease of 25.45 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 258.41 tons, a decrease of 14.35 tons. With the contraction of the supply end and the end of downstream replenishment, the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline [14]. - **Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises**: As of February 13, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1329.99 tons, an increase of 27.6 tons. The current inventory availability days of coking enterprises were 15.68 days, an increase of 0.17 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 82.8 tons, a cumulative increase of 0.06 tons. The coke inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, and the coking coal raw material had been replenished for many weeks, but the replenishment intensity weakened as the Spring Festival approached [17]. - **Raw material inventory of steel mills**: As of February 13, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 838.25 tons, an increase of 14.05 tons. The inventory availability days were 13.34 days, an increase of 0.22 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 671.91 tons, an increase of 5.53 tons compared with the previous period, and the availability days were 12.7 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished [21]. - **Coke production capacity utilization rate**: As of February 13, the production capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.74%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 63.79 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons compared with the previous period; the production capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.33%, the same as the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 47.23 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons compared with the previous period. Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable [23]. - **Coke consumption**: According to the statistics of Steel Union, as of the week of February 13, China's coke consumption was 103.72 tons, an increase of 0.86 tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average output of molten iron was 230.49 tons, an increase of 1.91 tons. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption [25]. - **Coke profit**: As of February 13, the average loss per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.53%, a decrease of 0.86% compared with the previous period. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure [27]. - **Double - coking futures - spot basis structure**: The double - coking futures fluctuated [29]. 3.4后市研判 - **Coking coal**: During the week before the Spring Festival, the coking coal supply contracted significantly, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. The trading volume of the futures decreased continuously during the week before the Spring Festival, and the pre - festival funds were cautious with reduced participation. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate [32]. - **Coke**: Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The double - coking futures market maintained a volatile trend this week. Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength during the "Golden March and Silver April". The price has support at the bottom, but the upward momentum needs to be accumulated. The coke market is affected by the cost side of coking coal, with stable capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises and slightly higher capacity utilization of steel mills. The iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. The new round of coke price increase has been postponed and implemented, improving the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises [5][35][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Most Tangshan steel mills have basically completed winter storage replenishment, with a small increase in winter storage. The average available days of coke in Tangshan steel mills is about 11 days, 2 days more than the average in early December last year [5] - On February 3, it was reported that some mines in Indonesia suspended spot trading, which attracted high attention. On February 5, the director of the Indonesian Mineral and Coal Department stated that the approval document for the 2026 coal mining work plan had not been officially issued, and the rumored reduction information was invalid [5] - The government work reports of 13 provinces in 2026 mentioned infrastructure - related content. Henan will implement more than 1,000 provincial key projects with an annual investment of 1 trillion yuan; Shaanxi will implement 640 provincial key projects with an investment of over 350 billion yuan [5] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic coking coal supply side has a slight contraction. The inventory reduction of coking coal is not smooth. Independent coking enterprises continue to replenish coking coal inventory, and steel mills slightly replenish raw material inventory. The capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises remains stable, and that of steel mills rises slightly. The iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. The new round of coke price increase has been postponed [5] 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, domestic macro - policies are positive, and the iron - water output is stable, supporting the demand for furnace materials [9] - Bearish factors: The winter storage expectation of steel is not strong, restricting the raw material replenishment space of steel mills. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment rhythm slows down, and the financial market fluctuates sharply with repeated sentiment [9] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply contraction**: As of the week of February 6, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.46%, and the daily average output decreased by 16,200 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 35.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.26%, and the daily average output decreased by 4,600 tons. As of January 31, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1.07676 million tons, remaining at a high level [11] - **Inventory reduction not smooth**: As of the week of February 6, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.6465 million tons, a decrease of 25,300 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.3446 million tons, an increase of 228,900 tons. The coking coal inventory at ports was 2.7276 million tons, a decrease of 136,200 tons [17] - **Independent coking enterprises replenish inventory**: As of February 6, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 13.0239 million tons, an increase of 676,000 tons. The available days of inventory were 15.51 days, an increase of 0.74 days. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 827,400 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons [20] - **Steel mills slightly replenish inventory**: As of February 6, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.242 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons. The available days of inventory were 13.12 days, an increase of 0.09 days. The coke inventory was 6.9238 million tons, an increase of 141,900 tons, and the available days were 12.76 days, an increase of 0.22 days [24] - **Capacity utilization**: As of February 6, the capacity utilization of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 631,400 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons. The capacity utilization of 247 steel enterprises was 86.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.42%, and the daily average output of coke was 472,400 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons [26] - **Coke consumption**: As of the week of February 6, China's coke consumption was 1.0286 million tons, an increase of 2,700 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons [28] - **Coke price increase**: As of February 6, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.39%, the same as the previous period. Since mid - January, multiple coking enterprises issued price increase letters, originally planned to be implemented on January 19 and postponed to January 30 [30] - **Double - coking basis structure**: The double - coking futures market fluctuated [32] 3.4后市研判 - **Coking coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic coking coal supply side has a slight contraction, the downstream inventory rhythm slows down, and the inventory reduction is not smooth. Independent coking enterprises have been replenishing coking coal inventory for many weeks, but the replenishment intensity weakens as the Spring Festival approaches. The raw material replenishment intensity of steel mills is less than that of independent coking enterprises. Before the festival, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength during the "Golden March and Silver April". The price has support at the bottom, but the upward momentum needs to be accumulated [35] - **Coke**: Recently, the capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises remains stable, and that of steel mills rises slightly. On the demand side, the iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. Since mid - January, multiple coking enterprises issued price increase letters, originally planned to be implemented on January 19 and postponed to January 30. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has improved. The coke inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises is not large, and the futures market fluctuates with the cost side of coking coal [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. The collective rebound of the three official PMI indices in December implies economic recovery signs. The National Fiscal Work Conference held from December 27 - 28, 2025, especially the arrangement for trade - in programs, boosts market sentiment, creating a warm overall macro - atmosphere and strong bottom support for A - shares. The market's expectation of a dovish stance from the new Federal Reserve Chairman weakens the US dollar, and the strengthening of the offshore RMB during the New Year holiday supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January. Due to the relatively late Spring Festival this year, the A - share spring market may be advanced [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - IF主力合约（2603）最新4697.0，环比+103.8↑；IF次主力合约（2601）最新4714.0，环比+95.6↑。IH主力合约（2603）3098.8，环比+77.2↑；IH次主力合约（2601）3097.4，环比+73.2↑。IC主力合约（2603）7596.0，环比+229.4↑；IC次主力合约（2601）7664.8，环比+209.6↑。IM主力合约（2603）7639.0，环比+200.0↑；IM次主力合约（2601）7759.2，环比+179.6↑ [2]。 3.2 Futures Spread and Seasonal Spread - IF - IH当月合约价差1616.6，环比+20.4↑；IC - IF当月合约价差2950.8，环比+117.4↑；IM - IC当月合约价差94.4，环比 - 31.4↓；IC - IH当月合约价差4567.4，环比+137.8↑；IM - IF当月合约价差3045.2，环比+86.0↑；IM - IH当月合约价差4661.8，环比+106.4↑。IF当季 - 当月 - 17.0，环比+5.4↑；IF下季 - 当月 - 64.2，环比+3.0↑；IH当季 - 当月1.4，环比+2.4↑；IH下季 - 当月 - 8.6，环比+1.0↑；IC当季 - 当月 - 68.8，环比+24.0↑；IC下季 - 当月 - 247.8，环比+32.4↑；IM当季 - 当月 - 120.2，环比+25.0↑；IM下季 - 当月 - 355.8，环比+27.6↑ [2]。 3.3 Futures Net Positions of Top 20 - IF前20名净持仓 - 30,761.00，环比+158.0↑；IH前20名净持仓 - 13,999.00，环比+454.0↑；IC前20名净持仓 - 29,174.00，环比+1274.0↑；IM前20名净持仓 - 49,284.00，环比+7072.0↑ [2]。 3.4 Spot Prices and Basis - 沪深300为4717.75，环比+87.8↑，IF主力合约基差 - 20.8，环比+9.4↑；上证50为3,099.8，环比+68.6↑，IH主力合约基差 - 0.9，环比+5.2↑；中证500为7,651.2，环比+185.6↑，IC主力合约基差 - 55.2，环比+47.6↑；中证1000为7,753.9，环比+158.6↑，IM主力合约基差 - 114.9，环比+44.2↑ [2]。 3.5 Market Sentiment - A股成交额（日，亿元）25,672.40，环比+5014.52↑；两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）25,406.82，环比 - 146.01↓；北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）2223.14，环比 - 157.04↓；逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元） - 4823.0，环比+135.0；主力资金（昨日，今日，亿元） - 397.51，环比+40.78；上涨股票比例（日，%）76.57，环比+31.32↑；Shibor（日，%）1.264，环比+0.006↑；IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2601）57.20，环比+29.20↑；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率（%）13.48，环比 - 1.95↓；IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2601）41.20，环比 - 60.60↓；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率（%）13.48，环比 - 1.54↓；沪深300指数20日波动率（%）12.80，环比+1.58↑；成交量PCR（%）59.96，环比+3.16↑；持仓量PCR（%）79.75，环比+7.42↑；Wind市场强弱分析中全部A股7.70，环比+3.10↑，技术面7.70，环比+3.20↑，资金面7.80，环比+3.20↑ [2]。 3.6 Industry News - A股主要指数收盘集体大幅上涨,上证指数重回4000点,沪深两市成交额大幅回升,全市场近4200只个股上涨,行业板块普遍上涨,传媒、医药生物等板块大幅走强,石油石化板块领跌。海外方面,特朗普预计1月宣布下一任美联储主席人选,此前表示希望新任美联储主席在市场表现良好时降低利率。国内方面,12月三大官方PMI指数均由荣枯线下方回升至扩张区间,12月27 - 28日全国财政工作会议指出2026年继续实施积极财政政策并安排资金支持消费品以旧换新 [2]。 3.7 Key Points to Watch - 1/5 23:00美国12月ISM制造业PMI；1/7 21:15美国12月ADP就业人数，23:00美国11月JOLTs职位空缺；1/8 20:30美国12月挑战者企业裁员人数；1/9 9:30中国12月CPI、PPI；1/9 21:30美国12月非农就业人口、失业率、劳动参与率 [3]。