Group 1: Consumption Promotion Policies - China's consumption promotion policies include direct fiscal subsidies such as rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, and consumption vouchers, and indirect support policies like tax exemptions on vehicle purchases[1] - The first round of rural subsidies from 2009 to 2012 involved a total subsidy of 76.5 billion yuan, resulting in sales of 659.76 billion yuan, with a fiscal multiplier of 8.6[1] - The new round of consumption vouchers initiated in 2020 has effectively stimulated demand in sectors like catering and tourism[1] Group 2: Factors Restricting Consumption - Short-term constraints on consumption recovery include slow income recovery and supply-side constraints, with property and transfer income only recovering to about 75% of pre-pandemic levels[3] - Structural unemployment and damaged household balance sheets are mid-term factors limiting consumption, with housing loans accounting for 53.8% of total loans[3] - Long-term challenges include an aging population and a mismatch between traditional supply and new consumption demands, which negatively impacts consumption willingness[4] Group 3: Future Expectations for Consumption - Future policies should focus on increasing income and reducing expenses, with an emphasis on improving the social security system and developing the service sector[5] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate and stock markets to restore household net wealth, which is crucial for boosting consumer confidence[6] - The 2024 policy framework emphasizes the importance of service consumption alongside traditional goods consumption, indicating a shift in focus for future consumption strategies[5]

证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 关税冲击，是"危"更是"机" ——论当前形势与 2018 年的差异 核心观点 2018 年，A 股在内生性调整压力、极致市场分化、经济转型压力和资管新规等"多重 约束"下，受到特朗普发起的三轮贸易战影响，全年市场震荡下行、跌幅较大。时隔 7 年，中国再次遇到美国关税冲击。与 2018 年相比，当前 A 股在微观结构、政策环境、 经济内力、流动性和科技创新 5 大维度下更加乐观，市场或形成"下有支撑，上有压 力"新格局，上证指数大概率于 3000-3350 点附近展开震荡。我们预计市场最快有望 在今年三季度重启上行攻势。配置方面，建议关注三大方向：1）自主可控：芯片/信 创/稀土/军工等；2）扩内需：地产建材/航空机场/酒饮/家具/调味品等；3）红利：大 金融/交运/饮料乳品等。 ❑ 2018 年：内生性调整压力叠加中美贸易摩擦 内部看，权重指数经过 2016-2017 年上涨，存在内生性调整压力，2018 年初大小 盘走势极致分化表明内生稳定性不足。结构性去杠杆与资管新规并存，压制风险 偏好，全年保证金余额、主动权益基金和两融余额均下降，市场流动性承压。外 部看， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a slight decline with major indices experiencing minor fluctuations, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the May Day holiday [4][9] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 633796 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.61 and a PB ratio of 1.20, while the Shenzhen Component Index has a market cap of 209389 billion, with a PE ratio of 19.48 and a PB ratio of 2.04 [3] Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, China's battery production is expected to increase by 14.8% month-on-month, with energy storage cell production accounting for approximately 26% of total output [27] - The report highlights the growth in the AI application sector, particularly following advancements from major companies like Alibaba, which is expected to drive market interest in AI-related investments [10] Company Performance - CITIC Securities (600030.SH) reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 177.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, and a net profit of 65.45 billion, reflecting a 32.0% increase [28] - Zhejiang Rongtai (603119.SH) achieved a total revenue of 11.35 billion in 2024, a 41.8% increase year-on-year, with its new energy business contributing significantly to growth [31] - WuXi AppTec (603259.SH) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 96.55 billion, a 20.96% increase year-on-year, with strong performance in its chemical business [33] - Defang Nano (300769.SZ) faced significant losses in 2024, with a net profit of -5.16 billion in Q4, indicating challenges in the market [35] - Xingyuan Material (300568.SZ) reported a Q1 2025 net profit of 0.47 billion, a decrease of 56.39% year-on-year, despite a significant quarter-on-quarter increase [37]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index leading gains, as of 9:46 AM, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.63%, and the ChiNext index was up by 1.02% [1] - According to Caixin Securities, the policy tone from important meetings in April is both proactive and flexible, suggesting that the market may continue to consolidate before the "May Day" holiday, with a defensive strategy recommended [1] - Post-holiday, the market is expected to show a structural upward trend due to the impact of overseas tariff disturbances, domestic policy support, and the release of annual and quarterly reports from listed companies [1] Sector Performance Technology Sector - The technology sector led the market, with AI glasses concept stocks performing strongly, including Yingtong Communications hitting the daily limit [1] - The computing power sector also saw a resurgence, with Hongbo Co. achieving four consecutive daily limits, and other stocks like Dongfang Materials and Chaoxun Communications reaching the daily limit as well [2] Retail Sector - The retail sector was active, with Maoye Commercial achieving five consecutive daily limits, and other companies like Cuiwei Co. and Laisentongling hitting the daily limit [3] - In Q1, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with March growth at 5.9% [3] AI Glasses Concept - The AI glasses concept stocks surged, with Yingtong Communications hitting the daily limit and other companies like Deep Kangjia A and Weida Optoelectronics following suit [4] - Research from Wellsenn XR predicts that global smart glasses shipments will exceed 12 million units by 2025, with AI functionality penetration exceeding 60% [4] Institutional Insights Caixin Securities - Caixin Securities anticipates that the market will focus on expanding domestic demand and the AI industry trend in May, with a potential return to consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of defensive strategies in the current market environment [5] Galaxy Securities - Galaxy Securities notes a potential style switch in the market post-holiday, with a return to thematic speculation likely [6][7] - The report highlights that the market may see a shift in fund structure, with mid-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks [7] Everbright Securities - Everbright Securities suggests that the market is likely to remain in a state of reduced volume and observation as the holiday approaches, with some funds taking profits [8] - The report indicates that after adjustments in banking and power sectors, the market will seek new opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - Lishang Guochao (600738) reported a revenue of 660 million yuan for 2024, benefiting from national policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption, which provides significant growth opportunities for the company [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 72.55 million yuan, with basic earnings per share of 0.10 yuan [1] - The Q1 2025 report showed a revenue of 177 million yuan and a net profit of 58.84 million yuan, with basic earnings per share of 0.08 yuan [1] Shareholder Returns - The company proposed a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 11.03 million yuan, and has distributed a cumulative cash dividend of 168.56 million yuan over the past three years [2] - The company repurchased 7,278,466 shares, accounting for 0.96% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 31.07 million yuan [2] - The controlling shareholder announced a plan to increase holdings by 1% to 2% of total shares, with a maximum expenditure of 76.13 million yuan, reflecting confidence in the company's value [2] Market Management - The company reported a stable performance in its professional market management, with high occupancy rates of 96.5% in Hangzhou and 95.6% in Nanjing [3] - Revenue from professional market management reached 419.23 million yuan, a growth of 2.73%, with a gross margin of 76.10% [3] - The company implemented a digital management strategy, enhancing operational efficiency and merchant activity through platforms like "Lida Tong" and "Lichao Purchase" [3] Asset Optimization - The company aims to empower merchants by optimizing rental structures and enhancing the rental space of core locations [4] - The asset management business is expected to maintain stable performance and ensure a certain asset yield [4] Retail Sector Revitalization - Lishang Guochao's core retail asset, Lanzhou Eurasia Shopping Mall, has undergone multiple adjustments to improve customer experience and has introduced nearly 60 new brands [5] - The company successfully increased member engagement and loyalty through targeted marketing strategies, resulting in higher member spending and recruitment [5] - The integration of online and offline retail models has attracted significant consumer attention [5] New Retail Development - The new retail sector showed signs of recovery in 2024, with the company leveraging its advantages to establish a comprehensive supply chain system [6] - The company is focused on providing all-around service support through e-commerce, logistics, and advertising [6] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to capitalize on national policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption, focusing on traditional business consolidation and digital transformation [7] - Future strategies include upgrading the industrial chain and creating an internal ecosystem centered around core business operations [7]

三大指数走势较为低迷，上证指数收盘微跌 0.05%，报收于 3 2 8 6 . 6 5 点，全天波动范围 极为有限，在窄幅区间内震荡运行。从个股涨跌分布来看，市场呈现出涨多跌少的格局， 上涨个股数量超过3 7 0 0家。而跌停个股数量多达58家，反映出市场内部存在明显的两极 分化现象。这种分化表明，尽管整体市场看似平稳，但不同个股和板块之间的表现差异巨 大，结构性行情特征显著。 盘面上， PEEK材料概念股大涨，聚赛龙、新瀚新材、中欣氟材涨停。 美容护理板块午 后持续拉升，丸美生物涨停，芭薇股份、锦波生物、上海家化涨幅居前。其它个股方面， 步步高、茂业商业午后拉升涨停走出"地天板"。 电力板块今日回调，韶能股份、乐山电 力、西昌电力、广西能源等股跌停。白酒板块亦表现落后，迎驾贡酒盘中跌停，洋河股 份、古井贡酒、山西汾酒跌幅居前。 01降准时机已到？ 具体来看，一是财政政策方面， 会议强调"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发 行使用" ，财政政策仍然是用好用足政策工具，第二季度政府债券发行仍将保持较快节 奏。 二是货币政策方面，会议延续了适度宽松、保持流动性充裕等表述，预计支持性的货币政 策导向不变。 降 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in 2024 [1][3]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to show stable performance in 2024, with a projected increase in net profit growth and a reduction in liability pressure. As of April 17, 2024, 26 listed banks reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.88% and a net profit growth of 5.29% in Q4 2024 [3][12]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies such as potential interest rate cuts and increased investment in state-owned banks to support economic stability amid external uncertainties [3][27]. - The banking sector is likely to attract risk-averse capital due to its defensive characteristics and stable dividends, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [3][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamentals - In Q4 2024, 26 listed banks achieved a total revenue of 5.21 trillion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.36%. However, net profit reached 1.98 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.01% [12][23]. - The net interest income for 2024 decreased by 2.03%, but showed a positive growth of 0.39% in Q4, indicating a recovery trend [17][19]. - Loan issuance for 2024 reached 158.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.97%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to 2023 [17][23]. 2. Policy Environment - The report emphasizes the need for further policy support to stabilize the economy, particularly through potential interest rate cuts and increased focus on domestic demand [27][36]. - The government aims to enhance consumer spending and investment through various initiatives, including special bonds to support consumption and infrastructure projects [42][44]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to inject 500 billion yuan into major state-owned banks to strengthen their capacity to serve the real economy [45][46]. 3. Financial Environment - The banking sector is expected to continue receiving inflows of risk-averse capital, particularly as external market conditions remain volatile [3][37]. - The report notes that the average net interest margin for 26 listed banks in 2024 was 1.64%, a decrease from the previous year, but with expectations of gradual recovery as loan re-pricing pressures ease [19][21]. - The average non-performing loan ratio for these banks improved to 1.15% in 2024, indicating better asset quality management [23][26].

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market continued to rebound this week, driven by a potential easing of US tariffs on China, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.15%, 2.74%, and 1.96% respectively [4][14] - All major industry sectors, except telecommunications, saw gains this week, with healthcare and information technology sectors leading with weekly increases of approximately 8% and 6% [4][14] - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Index rose to around 55%, still below the 5-year average [4] Market Valuation Level - The valuation level of the Hong Kong stock market remains below the 5-year average, indicating potential for future growth [4] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 1.53 billion HKD, a decrease from 1.99 billion HKD the previous week, with 62 companies participating in buybacks, down from 78 [24][25] - AIA Group (1299.HK) led the buybacks with 913.64 million HKD, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with 150.25 million HKD [24][25] - The financial sector saw the highest concentration of buyback amounts, driven by significant buybacks from AIA and HSBC [28] Southbound Fund Flow - The top net buying companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net inflow of 4.197 billion HKD and Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with 2.227 billion HKD [32] - Conversely, the top net selling companies included Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a net outflow of 4.540 billion HKD and China Mobile (0941.HK) with 1.875 billion HKD [33] Macroeconomic Environment Tracking - The political bureau meeting emphasized the urgency of expanding domestic demand amidst a severe external environment, indicating a focus on stabilizing economic growth [44][46] - The meeting also highlighted the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to counter external shocks and support domestic economic stability [46] - Recent data showed a 0.8% increase in profits for industrial enterprises in the first quarter, reflecting some improvement due to policy support, although external demand pressures remain [37][39] Sector Allocation Outlook - The report continues to favor sectors with relative economic resilience, such as automotive, technology, and internet industries, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises benefiting from policy support [46]

Group 1: Tourism and Economic Development - Yaan City, located in the geographical center of Sichuan Province, is expected to receive over 27 million tourists and generate over 26 billion yuan in tourism revenue in 2024 [1] - The People's Bank of China Yaan Branch is implementing policies to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, focusing on rural tourism and health tourism [1] Group 2: Financial Support for Night Economy - The Yaan Branch of the People's Bank of China is guiding local banks to provide differentiated financial support for the night economy, including customized loans for street vendors [2] - Yaan Commercial Bank has launched a "Business Easy Loan" with a maximum credit limit of 10 million yuan to support the upgrade and expansion of accommodation and dining businesses [2] - Since 2025, local banks have utilized relending funds to issue 133 million yuan in loans to individual businesses at an average interest rate of 3.65% [2] Group 3: Quality Improvement in Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The Yaan Branch of the People's Bank of China is increasing credit support for the cultural and tourism industry, facilitating financing connections through government and enterprise meetings [3] - Specialized loan products such as "Lejia Tour," "Huiyi Loan," and "Homestay Loan" have been introduced, with approximately 370 million yuan issued by 2025 [3] - A risk-sharing fund of 50 million yuan has been established to support the development of the cultural and tourism industry, leading to the issuance of 2.19 billion yuan in loans [3] Group 4: Growth of Elderly Care and Childcare Services - The Yaan Branch of the People's Bank of China is encouraging banks to meet the financing needs of existing elderly care and childcare service providers [4] - Local banks have launched personal consumption loan products like "Easy Care Loan" to enhance consumption security for elderly services [4] - By early 2025, local banks have provided 823 home service transactions and 397 remote video services for elderly individuals, totaling 40.6165 million yuan [4]

商务部副部长盛秋平表示，将推出细化举措，进一步增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用，以强大的国内市 场更好应对外部风险挑战。一是扩围提质实施消费品以旧换新，二是推动汽车流通消费改革，三是实施 服务消费提质惠民行动，四是举办"购在中国"系列活动。 当前，消费品以旧换新取得了积极成效。截至4月27日24时，全国汽车以旧换新281.4万辆，12类家电以 旧换新4941.6万台，手机等数码产品购新3785.5万件，家装厨卫"焕新"4090.6万件，电动自行车以旧换 新超420万台，合计拉动销售额超7200亿元。 对企业加大扩岗支持 人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋表示，将加快推出增量政策，对企业加大扩岗支持，对个人加大就业 补贴支持，对受关税影响较大的企业提高失业保险稳岗返还比例等。对已出台的存量政策要全面落实， 加快兑现稳岗返还、担保贷款、就业补贴，延续实施降低失业和工伤保险费率。 （上接1版） 扩内需政策将在二季度加快落地 赵辰昕表示，提振消费专项行动、用好今年国家层面5万亿元投资资金、加快设立国家创业投资引导基 金等政策大部分将在二季度落地。 据悉，在提振消费方面，近期已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧换新资金，前两批一共下 ...