本报记者 杜雨萌 8月1日，国家发展改革委举行新闻发布会，解读当前经济形势和经济工作。针对7月31日国务院常务会议审议通过的《关 于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》，国家发展改革委政策研究室主任、新闻发言人蒋毅称，下一步，国家发展改革委将会 同有关方面，注重让市场有方向、有信心，注重务实管用，深入实施"人工智能+"行动。 具体来说，一方面，大力推进人工智能规模化商业化应用，充分发挥我国产业体系完备、市场规模大、应用场景丰富等优 势，推动人工智能在经济社会发展各领域加快普及、深度融合，形成以创新带应用、以应用促创新的良性循环。另一方面，着 力优化人工智能创新生态，加大政策支持力度，夯实算力、算法、数据、开源、人才、安全等方面基础，加快形成动态敏捷、 多元协同的人工智能治理格局，更好支撑技术落地和产业发展壮大。 另据蒋毅介绍，今年第三批690亿元支持消费品以旧换新的超长期特别国债资金已下达完毕，将于10月份按计划下达第四 批690亿元资金，届时将完成全年3000亿元的下达计划。 蒋毅表示，下一步，国家发展改革委将会同财政部、商务部等部门，督促地方落实资金配套责任、细化资金使用计划，确 保资金有序均衡用到年底。同 ...

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) highlighted the strong resilience of the economy in the first half of the year, with domestic demand contributing 68.8% to GDP growth, indicating its role as a key driver of growth [1][1][1] - The NDRC plans to implement measures to stabilize employment and the economy, ensuring policy continuity, stability, and flexibility to convert external pressures into internal momentum [1][1][1] - The NDRC will enhance economic monitoring and forecasting, regularly conduct policy research, and improve the toolbox for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [1][1][1] Economic Performance - The economy demonstrated strong resilience in the first half of the year, with significant contributions from domestic demand and robust performance in foreign trade [1][1][1] - The equipment manufacturing sector continues to play a stabilizing role in the economy, while the modern service industry is accelerating its development [1][1][1] Future Outlook - The NDRC aims to maintain a stable employment situation and market expectations, striving for a reasonable recovery in price levels and optimizing economic growth [1][1][1] - There will be a focus on coordinating policies and work for the current and next year to ensure effective implementation of economic stabilization measures [1][1][1]

Policy Focus - The government will strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems [1] - The government will normalize policy research and reserve measures [1] - The government aims to improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [1] - Policies will be adjusted based on actual needs, coordinating efforts between the current and next year [1] Economic Goals - The government prioritizes stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [1] - The government seeks to achieve a reasonable recovery in price levels [1] - The government aims for overall stability in social employment and optimized economic growth [1]

上周债市经历显著调整，本周则呈现双向宽幅波动特征。10年期国债活跃券收益率本周在1.712%至 1.750%震荡，30年期国债活跃券收益率在1.918%至1.965%震荡，日内波动幅度较6月有所加大。 关注点二是深化改革重要性提升，将现代化产业体系建设相关表述放在深化改革框架之下。新增"反内 卷"相关表述，但注重"无序竞争""产能治理""地方招商"，弱化"低价"问题。 会议强调政策连续性稳定性 关注点三是对资本市场的表述从此前的"稳定和活跃"改为"增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性"，有助 于风险偏好和市场活跃度继续稳步提升。 7月中共中央政治局会议强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""宏观政策要持续发力、适时 加力""要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应"。在二季度GDP表 现维持韧性、6月经济基本面运行平稳且结构分化的背景下，会议定调下半年宏观政策取向保持积极， 延续一致性导向。 关注点四是扩内需继续放在首位，但取消"两新"表述。稳外贸措辞增加，保民生、促就业仍是重点，安 全工作部署进一步强化。整体表述基本延续去年年底中央经济工作会议精神。 关注点一是充分肯定了今年上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuation of a stable yet progressive macroeconomic policy, focusing on maintaining policy stability while enhancing flexibility and timely adjustments to stimulate economic recovery [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy aims for detailed implementation, emphasizing structural optimization, with a focus on enhancing social welfare and targeted spending for specific groups [4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of long-term special bonds, with net financing reaching 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4]. Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts to lower overall financing costs for society [5]. - The central bank has already implemented a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio reduction, with further easing expected [5]. Industry Policy - The industry policy focuses on fostering technological innovation and promoting healthy competition, with an emphasis on emerging industries and strategic sectors [6][8]. - Key areas for support include quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, with a push for collaboration between research institutions and enterprises [6]. Real Estate Policy - The real estate policy highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal and managing local government debt risks, with a focus on stabilizing the housing market [9]. - Recent data shows a decline in property sales, with June's sales area and revenue down by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively [9]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The strategy for expanding domestic demand involves enhancing both consumption scenarios and consumer capacity, with potential policies to optimize social security contributions and tax structures [11][12]. - Recent retail sales data indicates a 4.8% year-on-year growth, but a decline in consumer confidence remains a concern [11]. Employment and Social Welfare - The employment policy prioritizes job creation for key demographics, including recent graduates and migrant workers, while ensuring social safety nets are in place [13]. - The approach combines development with safety nets to stabilize society and rebuild consumer confidence [13]. Capital Market - The capital market is encouraged to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity, with recent positive performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [14]. - The government has introduced various supportive measures to stabilize and invigorate the capital market, including optimizing monetary policy tools [14]. High-Level Opening Up - The policy aims to maintain a stable foundation for foreign trade and investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and promote integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [15]. - The focus is on enhancing the resilience of enterprises and the support capabilities of open platforms in a complex external environment [15].

Core Viewpoint - The business economy in Changsha has shown resilience and growth in the first half of the year, with significant improvements in retail sales, import-export values, and foreign investment despite a challenging external environment [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - From January to June, the total retail sales reached 280.77 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, with an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the lowest value [1] - The total import and export value was 136.76 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2%, with June alone reaching 27.67 billion yuan, marking a two-year high and a 59.6% increase in non-trade [1] - The actual utilized foreign investment growth led the province, with 95 projects exceeding 200 million yuan introduced [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The government aims to enhance domestic demand by promoting consumption through various initiatives, including upgrading shopping scenarios and encouraging trade and cultural integration through events like "Xiangchao" and "Xiangma" [1] - To stabilize foreign trade, the focus will be on market expansion and providing precise support to enterprises, particularly in strengthening non-trade [1] - The strategy for attracting foreign investment will emphasize large and strong projects, focusing on key industries and initiatives to encourage local business return and alumni engagement [1] - Safety measures will be prioritized to identify and rectify risks, ensuring the prevention of major accidents [1]

Core Views - The meeting of the Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, aligning with investor expectations [2][3] - Key areas of focus include expanding domestic demand, prioritizing service consumption, and fostering international competitiveness in technology innovation [2][4][5] Focus Area 1: Expanding Domestic Demand - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding service consumption as a new growth point while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods [4] - Policies may increasingly focus on stimulating service consumption, with potential measures including issuing consumption vouchers and upgrading cultural tourism [4] Focus Area 2: Technology Innovation - Technology innovation remains a focal point, with a shift from specific sectors to nurturing emerging industries with international competitiveness, particularly in the domestic computing power chain [5] - The "anti-involution" narrative has been refined to emphasize lawful governance of chaotic competition and capacity management in key industries [5] Focus Area 3: Capital Market Policies - The meeting stressed enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to support enterprises at different development stages [6] - There was no separate discussion on real estate policies, indicating that future policy directions need further observation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of consumption scenarios is not merely a simple combination of functions, resources, and categories, but rather a multi-business integration that drives the renewal of goods and services, reshaping consumption methods through immersive experiences, ultimately achieving an upgrade in consumption quality [1][2][3] Group 1: Consumption Scenario Integration - The current consumption structure in China is transitioning to a stage where product consumption and service consumption coexist, with consumers increasingly valuing personalized, intelligent, and multi-layered consumption experiences [2][3] - The integration of consumption scenarios involves finding synergies between different sectors to create a combined effect greater than the sum of its parts, such as combining events like exhibitions and concerts with local attractions to enhance consumer engagement [2][3] Group 2: Physical Space Innovation - The transformation of physical spaces, such as shopping malls and parks, is essential for promoting the integration of consumption scenarios and enhancing business models, as seen in innovative examples like the "This Has Mountains" mall in Changchun, which integrates various cultural and recreational offerings [3][4] - Effective investment and scientific planning are necessary to upgrade traditional physical spaces, enabling them to adapt to new consumption patterns and attract more foot traffic [1][3] Group 3: Future Directions - Many current integration efforts are still in the exploratory 1.0 stage, and achieving high-frequency, high-quality scenario switching and user response requires innovative transformations and a deep understanding of consumer needs [4]

Core Viewpoint - Consumption has become a crucial engine for economic growth in China, with a series of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption being implemented this year [1]. Financial Support for Consumption - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption," outlining 19 key measures to enhance financial support for consumption [1]. - Multiple banks have developed action plans to support consumption, focusing on deepening consumer scenarios, product innovation, and optimizing resource allocation [2]. Bank Initiatives - China CITIC Bank has launched a comprehensive plan combining credit support, scenario discounts, and green incentives to lower consumer costs and enhance spending willingness [2]. - Jiangsu Bank has introduced 18 measures to support consumption, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and improving financial services [2]. Focus on Key Consumption Areas - The "Guiding Opinions" emphasize increasing financial support for key consumption areas and innovating financial products tailored to consumer scenarios [3]. - China Bank has introduced a consumer credit loan with a low interest rate and high loan limit, alongside significant tourism subsidies [3]. - Everbright Bank is promoting various consumer activities through online platforms, aiming to create a closed loop of payment, rights, and consumption [3]. Service Consumption Growth Potential - Service consumption remains a shortfall in China's consumption landscape, with the "Guiding Opinions" encouraging financial institutions to increase credit support for service sectors like retail, hospitality, and elder care [4]. - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elder care relending facility to stimulate financial support for these sectors [5]. Bank Responses to Policy - Banks are quickly responding to the new policies, with examples including Construction Bank providing financing for elder care facility upgrades and Zheshang Bank supporting hotel renovations [5]. - The China Banking Research Institute anticipates that consumption growth will be driven by policy effectiveness and the release of service consumption potential in the second half of the year [5]. Recommendations for Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance their understanding of consumption support, innovate financial products, and integrate more consumer scenarios into their offerings [6]. - Banks should focus on traditional consumption upgrades, service consumption expansion, and new consumption cultivation to better meet market demands [6].